OPTIMAL MULTIPLE STOPPING AND VALUATION OF SWING OPTIONS

The connection between optimal stopping of random systems and the theory of the Snell envelop is well understood, and its application to the pricing of American contingent claims is well known. Motivated by the pricing of swing contracts (whose recall components can be viewed as contingent claims with multiple exercises of American type) we investigate the mathematical generalization of these results to the case of possible multiple stopping. We prove existence of the multiple exercise policies in a fairly general set-up. We then concentrate on the Black–Scholes model for which we give a constructive solution in the perpetual case, and an approximation procedure in the finite horizon case. The last two sections of the paper are devoted to numerical results. We illustrate the theoretical results of the perpetual case, and in the finite horizon case, we introduce numerical approximation algorithms based on ideas of the Malliavin calculus.     

MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR THE VALUATION OF MULTIPLE-EXERCISE OPTIONS

We discuss Monte Carlo methods for valuing options with multiple-exercise features in discrete time. By extending the recently developed duality ideas for American option pricing, we show how to obtain estimates on the prices of such options using Monte Carlo techniques. We prove convergence of our approach and estimate the error. The methods are applied to options in the energy and interest rate derivative markets.     

Valuation by Simulation of Contingent Claims with Multiple Early Exercise Opportunities

This paper introduces the application of Monte Carlo simulation technology to the valuation of securities that contain many (buying or selling) rights, but for which a limited number can be exercised per period, and penalties if a minimum quantity is not exercised before maturity. These securities combine the characteristics of American options, with the additional constraint that only a few rights can be exercised per period and therefore their price depends also on the number of living rights (i.e., American-Asian-style payoffs), and forward securities. These securities give flexibility-of-delivery options and are common in energy markets (e.g., take-or-pay or swing options) and as real options (e.g., the development of a mine). First, we derive a series of properties for the price and the optimal exercise frontier of these securities. Second, we price them by simulation, extending the Ibáñez and Zapatero (2004) method to this problem.     

STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS AND THE PRICING OF VIX OPTIONS

In this paper, we examine and compare the performance of a variety of continuous‐time volatility models in their ability to capture the behavior of the VIX. The “3/2‐ model” with a diffusion structure which allows the volatility of volatility changes to be highly sensitive to the actual level of volatility is found to outperform all other popular models tested. Analytic solutions for option prices on the VIX under the 3/2‐model are developed and then used to calibrate at‐the‐money market option prices.     

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION WITH JUMPS AND UNOBSERVABLE INTENSITY PROCESS

We consider a financial market with one bond and one stock. The dynamics of the stock price process allow jumps which occur according to a Markov-modulated Poisson process. We assume that there is an investor who is only able to observe the stock price process and not the driving Markov chain. The investor's aim is to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth. Using a classical result from filter theory it is possible to reduce this problem with partial observation to one with complete observation. With the help of a generalized Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation where we replace the derivative by Clarke's generalized gradient, we identify an optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, we discuss some special cases of this model and prove several properties of the optimal portfolio strategy. In particular, we derive bounds and discuss the influence of uncertainty on the optimal portfolio strategy.     

ALTERNATIVE CHARACTERIZATIONS OF AMERICAN PUT OPTIONS

We derive alternative representations of the McKean equation for the value of the American put option. Our main result decomposes the value of an American put option into the corresponding European put price and the early exercise premium. We then represent the European put price in a new manner. This representation allows us to alternatively decompose the price of an American put option into its intrinsic value and time value, and to demonstrate the equivalence of our results to the McKean equation.     

STOCHASTIC HYPERBOLIC DYNAMICS FOR INFINITE-DIMENSIONAL FORWARD RATES AND OPTION PRICING

We model the term-structure modeling of interest rates by considering the forward rate as the solution of a stochastic hyperbolic partial differential equation. First, we study the arbitrage-free model of the term structure and explore the completeness of the market. We then derive results for the pricing of general contingent claims. Finally we obtain an explicit formula for a forward rate cap in the Gaussian framework from the general results.