外国资本流入对国内储蓄的动态效应研究

本文基于国际资本流动视角分析了外国资本流对我国国内储蓄的影响。通过实证分析,认为在短期内外国资本流对国内储蓄具有“挤入效应”,而长期则具有“挤出效应”。同时,结合我国储蓄与外国资本流入关系的动态变化,认为我国在引入外资过程中,更应注重对外资的利用效率,从而实现跨期资本流入的最优调整。     

我国目前的外债风险分析与防范

外债在弥补国家建设资金不足,促进国民经济快速发展方面起着重要作用。但近年我国外债规模增长速度惊人,成为世界债务大国。从各项外债指标来看,它们低于国际警戒线,但外债存在着许多潜在风险,如债务人的多头对外,国际商业贷款比重偏大,外债使用效率欠佳等。因此针对这些风险,我国应从外债借入、使用、偿还三方面来防范风险。     

浅析拉美国家反倾销调查中的领事认证制度

拉丁美洲地区的一些国家在反倾销调查中对国外企业提交的应诉材料存在领事认证的要求。这种要求给国外企业尤其是中国企业的应诉造成了不便。文章简要介绍和分析了拉美国家反倾销中的领事认证制度,并结合我国的具体情况提出了一些建议。     

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America in the 1990s

Summary

FDI in Latin America has witnessed a resurgence in the 1990s after the debt crisis and capital drought of the 1980s. This inflow results both from more market-friendly policies in the recipient countries and lower returns and growth in developed nations. The latter factor has also attracted many short-term, portfolio instruments to the continent which can be highly damaging to local economies when not properly regulated. Privatization has been among the more important country-specific variables attracting direct investors to the region. Despite the positive effects of FDI, Latin American countries are still beset with problems such as unequal distribution of income and poverty that direct investment is unlikely to ameliorate.     

我国居民储蓄与外汇储备相互影响的实证分析

分别阐述了我国居民储蓄和外汇储备各自居高不下的原因,比较了两者原因的相似性,运用多种经济学理论分析和运用计量经济学模型论证了两者的相关性,有针对性地提出了我国高额居民储蓄与外汇储备的解决策略。     

内外贸一体化中的对外贸易政策调整

由美国次级贷款问题引发的愈演愈烈的全球金融危机,将使中国经济发展面临国际市场需求紧缩和国内需求市场疲软的双重压力。从中长期来看,积极推进内外贸一体化发展,是缓解内外压力,保持经济持续较快发展的重要途径之一。为此,必须深入研究内外贸一体化的客观经济机制,促进国内外贸易政策的协调。     

外资银行进入对内资银行绩效影响的文献回顾及实证研究

外资银行进入对内资银行的绩效究竟将会产生怎样的影响?本文通过实证研究的分析方法,阐述了外资银行进入新兴市场经济国家,对东道国内资银行业的绩效影响。得出长期比短期更具有积极影响的结论,并进一步阐述了外资银行进入对我国银行业的影响及实证研究结论对我们的启示。     

Business Environment Index for Developing Countries: The Case of Latin America

This article develops a new business environment index with indicators that are appropriate, broadly available for developing regions, and, most importantly, are not double-edged. We used the index to analyze the business environment in Latin America, and it suggests the main role of basic economic principles, institutional economics approach and historical context. We propose the identification of an interdisciplinary variable as well as interpretation of the index, based on 10 factors divided into three dimensions (economic, institutional, and social). The novelty is in the consideration of past values; it is neither based on popularity votes, and nor does it favor large economies.     

城市商业银行发展外汇业务研究

作为我国银行业的后起之秀,为了实施特色化、差异化发展和经营转型,城市商业银行应当抓住我国外向型经济蓬勃发展的黄金时期,发挥自身优势,大力开拓外汇业务,全方位开展本外币一体化经营.提高对外汇业务的认识,增强本外币一体化经营意识;加强外汇业务队伍建设,做好外汇业务人才储备和培养工作;建立灵活的贸易融资授信政策,确保贸易融资业务审批效率;强化对外汇业务的绩效考核;重视对外汇业务的研究与创新,凸显特色;建立与当地涉外单位或部门的信息沟通机制.     

内外贸一体化的内涵、经济效应及其路径选择

行政管理体制的变化只是引起对内外贸一体化问题讨论的引线,真正的经济背景是经济结构调整和扩大国内需求。内外贸一体化是以企业为主体的市场自发演进过程,它有助于加快基于比较优势和规模收益的区域产业结构调整和优化,并通过产业结构和贸易结构调整促进国内需求快速增长。企业选择内外贸一体化经营,除了受到内部预算约束和外部市场规模限制以外,还依赖于产业链的延展路径和市场一体化的程度。     

中国内外资零售企业竞争态势比较分析

本文以限额以上零售企业为样本，采用静态比较分析的方法，从基本情况、财务结构、盈利能力和工资福利等方面进行比较和分析。以探求当前我国内、外资零售企业的真实竞争状况和动向，并对我国内资零售企业如何把握和参与竞争提出相关建议。最后指出零售业自由化和全球化的最终赢家是PK台下的观众：中国的消费者和老百姓。     

拉丁美洲农业利用外国直接投资的实践及启示

拉美农业利用外国直接投资(FDI)的实践表明,外国直接投资在促进拉美农业发展的同时,也给拉美农业带来了诸如被跨国公司支配、转移不适宜技术、造成单一的农业生产结构、环境破坏和劳动力失业等一系列社会经济问题.文章针对拉美农业利用外国直接投资的教训,提出我国农业利用外国直接投资必须遵循的原则.     

希腊债务危机及其对世界经济复苏的冲击

2010年2月初以来,希腊等国的债务危机开始进入人们的视野,并引发欧盟金融市场震荡。希腊等国的债务危机具有重要的历史原因和传染效应,它不仅源于财政赤字过高,而且缺乏独立的货币政策,但最根本的原因是希腊的经济失去了"生产性"。我国应未雨绸缪,提早做好准备,主动积极应对希腊等国的主权债务危机。     

Ethnic Differences in Nigerian Consumer Attitudes Toward Foreign and Domestic Products

Abstract

This paper uses conjoint analysis to investigate ethnic differences in the importance of a product's country-of-manufacture relative to other attributes in the Nigerian consumer choice. It was found that the country-of-manufacture was more important to Yoruba than Hausa respondents, price was more important to Ibo than Yoruba respondents, and reliability was more important to Hausa than Ibo respondents. Additional analyses indicated that prestige was important to Yoruba respondents in the preference for foreign cars while it was important to Ibo and Hausa respondents in the choice of foreign TV sets. Implications for foreign marketers, domestic governments and domestic manufacturers are discussed.     

对外开放与发展中国家的收入不平等:基于亚洲和拉美国家的比较研究

本文基于要素禀赋理论,在将劳动力划分为低、中、高技能三类的基础上,选取亚洲和拉丁美洲部分发展中国家1960-2005年的数据,建立非平衡面板模型,分析两地区的开放对国内收入分配的影响。实证结果表明,亚洲和拉丁美洲发展中国家的对外开放确实对国内收入不平等起到推动作用。目前的开放有利于中等技能劳动力相对丰裕的发展中国家,而不利于低技能劳动力相对丰裕的国家。总体的贸易依存度对拉美不平等的推动作用更大,但外资对亚洲不平等的推动作用更大;制造业出口倾向于扩大拉美国家的收入差距而缩小亚洲国家的收入差距。     

International Stock Market Linkages and Spillovers: Evidence from Three Latin American Countries

ABSTRACT

Using a multivariate exponential generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (M-EGARCH) model, this study examines price and volatility spillovers and response asymmetries between the equity markets of the United States and Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our results vary depending on the openness of the country in terms of international trade. Evidence indicates that there are price and volatility spillovers from the United States to Mexico and Chile and but not to Brazil. In addition, our results indicate response asymmetries for Mexico and Chile, suggesting that the Mexican and Chilean markets are more sensitive to negative innovations originating from other markets than to positive innovations.

RESUMEN. Este estudio examina contagios de precio y volatilidad, y respuestas asimétricas entre los mercados de capital de Estados Unidos y Brasil, Chile y México, fundándose en un modelo exponencial generalizado multivariado, con un condicionante autoregresivo heteroscedástico (M-EGARCH). Los resultados obtenidos varían, dependiente del nivel de apertura de un país en lo que concierne al comercio internacional. Las pruebas indican que existen contagios de precio y volatilidades desde los Estados Unidos hacia México y Chile, pero no hacia Brasil. Además, los resultados también indican asimetrías de respuesta para México y Chile, sugiriendo que estos dos mercados son más sensibles a las innovaciones negativas que se originan en otros mercados, que a las innovaciones positivas.

RESUMO. Usando um modelo condicionalmente heterocedástico, autoregressivo, generalizado, exponencial e multivariado (M-EGARCH), este estudo examina contágios de preços e volatilidade, e assimetrias de resposta entre mercados de ações dos EUA e Brasil, Chile e México. Nossos resultados variam, dependendo da abertura do país em termos de comércio internacional. Os dados indicam que existem contágiosde preço e volatilidade dos EUA para o México e Chile, mas não para o Brasil. Além disso, nossos resultados indicam assimetrias de resposta para o México e Chile, sugerindo que estes mercados são mais sensíveis a inovações negativas originárias de outros mercados do que a inovações positivas.     

欧洲主权债务危机及其影响

2010年2月初以来,随着美国次贷危机对各国经济的影响逐步消退、世界经济复苏越来越明显,欧洲主权债务危机开始进入人们的视野,国际金融市场出现震荡。欧洲主权债务危机对我国的影响主要是间接性的汇率风险,即我国巨额外汇储备中欧元部分的趋势性贬值风险。但是,我国应未雨绸缪,提早做好准备,主动积极应对欧洲主权债务危机。     

European Sovereign Debt Crisis's Influence and Enlightenment on China

对中国的欧洲主权债务危机从形成到逐步影响中国的各个方面进行详尽分析和探讨,包括对汇率、对外贸易、金融政策等的影响,指出应以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,改进中国地方政府债务的监管体制。     

Mean-Reversion and Long Memory in the Stock Market Indexes of Some Latin American Countries

ABSTRACT

In this paper we examine the mean-reversion and long-memory properties in the stock market indexes of some Latin American countries by means of fractional integration. In doing so, we allow for a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic behaviour of the series not achieved when using the classical representations based on I(0) or I(1) processes. We use a semiparametric local Whittle estimator based on the frequency domain. The results show that the order of integration of the series is higher than 1 for Argentina, Venezuela and Colombia and is around 1 or slightly higher for Mexico. The results also show that the unit root cannot be rejected for the case of Brazil. Splitting the samples around the periods of crisis, we find long-memory stock market returns in the pre-crisis period for all countries except Brazil. However, using post-crisis data, the unit-root cannot be rejected, which might be consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. A notable exception is the case of Colombia, where long memory is also found in the returns for the post-crisis period.

RESUMEN. En este estudio examinamos las propiedades de la reversión media y de la memoria prolongada en los índices del mercado bursátil en algunos países latino-americanos, a través de la integración fraccional. Utilizando este método, permitimos la ocurrencia de una flexibilidad mucho más rica en el comportamiento dinámico de las series, que no se puede lograr con el uso de las representaciones clásicas, basadas en los procesos I(0) o I(1). Utilizamos un estimador Whittle local semiparamétrico, fundamentado en el dominio de la frecuencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el orden de integración de la serie es mayor a 1 para Argentina, Venezuela y Colombia, y alrededor de o poco más de 1 para México. Además, los resultados también demuestran que, en el caso brasileño, no puede rechazarse la unidad raíz. Al dividir las muestras alrededor de los períodos de crisis, descubrimos que el mercado bursátil con memoria prolongada vuelve a aparecer en el período pre crisis en todos los países menor Brasil. Sin embargo, si usamos los datos post crisis no podemos rechazar la unidad raíz ya que la misma puede ser coherente con la Hipótesis del Mercado Eficiente. Una excepción notable esel caso de Colombia, donde la memoria prolongada también se encuentra en los retornos para el período post crisis.

RESUMO. Neste artigo examinamos as propriedades de reverãs média e memória longa nos índices de mercados de aç[otilde]es de alguns países latino-americanos por meio da integração fracionária. Com isto, permitimos um grau de flexibilidade bem maior no comportamento dinâmico da série, não obtida quando se usam representaç[otilde]es clássicas baseadas nos processos I(0) e I(1). Empregamos um estimador Whittle local semiparamétrico baseado no domínio da freqüência. Os resultados mostram que a ordem de integração das série é maior que 1 para a Argentina, Venezuela e Colômbia e em torno de 1 ou ligeiramente maior para o México. Os resultados também mostram que a raiz unitária não pode ser rejeitada para o caso do Brasil. Dividindo-se as amostras em torno dos períodos de crise, encontramos retornos de mercado de aç[otilde]es de memória longa no período pré-crise para todos os países, exceto o Brasil. Entretanto, usando dados pós-crise, a raiz unitária não pode ser rejeitada, o que poderia ser compatível com a Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente. Uma exceção notável é o caso da Colômbia, onde a memória longa também se encontra nos retornos para o período pós-crise.     

“两税合一”——障碍分析与具体构想

本文通过对“两税合一”从动议到成为共识经过的分析,及对“两税合一”的反方观点影响外资论、收入减少论、改革时机论进行剖析,得出当前两税合一的必要性和紧迫性,提出了我国新公司所得税法的具体构想。