Long-Term Care Insurance and Life Insurance Demand

This article investigates the interaction between life insurance and long-term care insurance markets on the demand side. In the model utility depends on both consumption and bequest, and utility from consumption is contingent on the state of health. While the demand for life insurance increases both with decreasing income and with a rising degree of altruism, the influences of these two parameters on the demand for long-term care insurance are ambiguous. If the utility shock arising from disability declines, both insurance demands will rise.     

Household Life Insurance Demand

Abstract

What types of households own life insurance? Who owns term life and who owns whole life insurance? These are questions of great interest to insurers that operate in a highly competitive market. To answer these questions, we jointly examine household demand of two types of insurance, term and whole life, using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, a probability sample of the U.S. population. We model both the frequency and the severity of demand for insurance, building on the work of Lin and Grace by using explanatory variables that they developed. For the frequency portion, the household decisions about whether to own term and whole life insurance are modeled simultaneously with a bivariate probit regression model. Given ownership of life insurance by a household, the amounts of insurance are analyzed using generalized linear models with a normal copula. The copula permits the bivariate modeling of insurance amounts for households who own both term and whole life insurance, about 20% of our sample. These models allow analysts to predict who owns life insurance and how much they own, an important input to the marketing process.

Moreover, our findings suggest that household demand for term and whole life insurance is jointly determined. After controlling for explanatory variables, there exists a negative relationship for a household’s decision to own both whole and term life insurance (the frequency part) and a positive relationship for the amount of insurance purchased (the severity part). This indicates that the greater the probability of holding one type, the smaller the probability of holding the other type of life insurance. However, higher demand for both types of insurance exists when a household decides to own both. This mixed effect extends prior work that established a negative relationship, suggesting that term life insurance and whole life insurance are substitutes for one another. In contrast, our findings reveal that the ownership decision involves substitution, but, for households owning both types of insurance, amounts are positively related. Therefore, term and whole life insurance are substitutes in the frequency yet complements in the severity.     

Life Insurance Mathematics with Random Life Tables

Abstract

When the insurer sells life annuities, projected life tables incorporating a forecast of future longevity must be used for pricing and reserving. To fix the ideas, the framework of Lee and Carter is adopted in this paper. The Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting assumes that the death rate at age x in calendar year t is of the form exp(α_x + (β_xK_t), where the time-varying parameter K_t reflects the general level of mortality and follows an ARIMA model. The future lifetimes are all influenced by the same time index K_t in this framework. Because the future path of this index is unknown and modeled as a stochastic process, the policyholders' lifetimes become dependent on each other. Consequently the risk does not disappear as the size of the portfolio increases: there always remains some systematic risk that cannot be diversified, whatever the number of policies. This paper aims to investigate some aspects of actuarial mathematics in the context of random life tables. First, the type of dependence existing between the insured life lengths is carefully examined. The way positive dependence influences the need for economic capital is assessed compared to mutual independence, as well as the effect of the timing of deaths through Bayesian credibility mechanisms. Then the distribution of the present value of payments under a closed group of life annuity policies is studied. Failing to account for the positive dependence between insured lifetimes is a dangerous strategy, even if the randomness in the future survival probabilities is incorporated in the actuarial computations. Numerical illustrations are performed on the basis of Belgian mortality statistics. The impact on the distribution of the present value of the additional variability that results from the Lee-Carter model is compared with the traditional method of mortality projection. Also, the impact of ignoring the dependence hat arises from the model is quantified.     

Voluntary Termination of Life Insurance Policies

Abstract

In this paper, one error-correction model (ECM) that is able to avoid the problem of producing noise within traditional multiple cointegration vectors has been employed to explore the dynamics of surrender behavior. The evidence shows that both the emergency fund hypothesis and interest rate hypothesis are sustained in the short run as well as in the long run. A unique cointegration relationship within the surrender dynamics has been validated. In addition, a new hypothesis test that stresses the competition for the withdrawal of life insurance policy cash values has also been conducted. Such a crowding-out effect between policy loans and policy surrenders might be attributed to the motivation that keeps a life policy in force, the existence of surrender charges, and the automatic premium loan provision.     

人寿保险需求探析

与其他形式的保险相比,人寿保险更具有储蓄的功能,因而对寿险需求动机的分析可以在储蓄动机的分析框架内进行。对保险需求的研究,大部分文献是从投保人最大化其自身期望效用出发,里维斯（Lewis,1989）拓宽了这一研究视角,从被赡养人期望效用的角度研究人寿保险需求。寿险需求的影响因素：期望寿命、保险价格、赡养率、收入与财富、社会保障、预期通货膨胀率、教育水平。     

假日经济呼唤寿险同步疾行

随着越来越多长假的出现,由五一节、国庆节、春节所构成的假日经济已逐渐为广大百姓所接受,呈现出火爆的发展态势,社会各界或为假日经济开足马力、保驾护航,或为搭上假日经济这趟快车而不遗余力、千方百计,比如旅游、商业、餐饮、交通、电信等行业都瞄准了假日经济这块“蛋糕”,风风火火地行动起来,年年有新创意,新思路,新举措,相比而言,寿险业在与假日经济同步疾行的浩荡大军中,就显得有点不温不火、姗姗来迟了。     

Experience Rating in Group Life Insurance

Abstract

Methods for experience rating of group life contracts are obtained as empirical Bayes or linear Bayes solutions in heterogeneity models. Each master contract is assigned a latent random quantity representing unobservable risk characteristics, which comprise mortality and possibly also age distribution and distribution of the sums insured, depending on the information available about the group. Hierarchical extensions of the set-up are discussed. An application of the theory to data from an authentic portfolio of groups revealed substantial between-group risk variations, hence experience rating could be statistically justified.     

北京县域寿险市场开拓策略研究

现阶段我国城市保险体系已经初具规模,而农村保险体系尚不完善,县域可谓是保险从城市向农村发展的突破口。本文在对北京县域寿险开发现状进行实地调研的基础上,结合我国寿险市场的发展及北京县域的实际情况,对北京县域寿险市场的前景进行了分析,并有针对性地提出了相关建议。     

The Illiquidity Discount of Life Insurance Investments

We incorporate an illiquid life insurance investment in the multi-period investment strategy of an investor with constant relative risk aversion and independent and identically distributed returns. In our setup, the liquid and the illiquid assets are risky and correlated and the illiquid investment cannot be rebalanced. We calculate the illiquidity discount as the difference in certainty equivalent rates of return between the optimal strategy with all assets being rebalanced in each period and the strategy with the illiquid investment. Calibrating our model to data of the German market we find a negative relationship between the level of risk aversion and the illiquidity discount when the investor does not rebalance at all. However, when the investor rebalances his liquid assets in each period to hedge against the illiquid investment the illiquidity discount becomes economically negligible.     

寿险资金运用中的投资理念分析

投资理念是主导金融机构投资行为的关键,有什么样的投资理念就会有相应的投资策略和投资组合。简单地说,投资理念就是投资的指导思想,是投资者理论与实践的总结。     

实施创新战略开拓海南国有独资寿险公司

目前，国有企业的改革到了攻坚阶段，随着知识经济的来临以及我国社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立，特别是加入WTO步伐的加快，国有保险公司面临着严峻的挑战。在新形势面前，要么退却，要么知难而进。倒退是没有出路的，唯一的选择是深化改革，勇于创新。本通过对国内外环境的分析及其对国有保险公司的影响，结合海南及国内国有保险公司的现状及所处的地位，就国有保险公司创新的必要性，实施创新战略的几种思路以及应当注意的几个问题进行了探讨，以增强业内人士的紧迫感、责任感和创新意识，以推动国有保险公司的稳步发展。     

An Actuarial Analysis of Participating Life Insurance

An actuarial model is developed to reveal the intrinsic nature of participating life insurance. The basic safe-side criterion is examined. It is established how the first-order prospective net premium reserve includes safety margins or bonus loadings, and it is demonstrated how the bonus loadings are currently released. It is demonstrated how surplus may be distributed and accumulated as a terminal bonus in an equitable way. The level premium is divided into a variable recurrent single premium and a variable natural premium, and an alternative to the prospective net premium reserve is examined. A capitalization of future safety margins or bonus loadings, which are related to past premiums and the paid-up benefit, may allow the insurance company a considerable increase in investment freedom. The theory is illustrated by numerical results.     

Life Insurance Policies with Statistical Heterogeneous Population

In the paper we consider an endowment insurance contract with a twelve months maturation time. Using the majorization order and Schur-convex functions we derive upper and lower bounds of the premium, the death and survival benefits for a hetrogeneous population of insureds. The bounds are obtained for the exponential, Balducci, and linear approximations.     

Calculating Funding Premiums for Universal Life Insurance

Abstract

This paper provides a brief overview of the most commonly used methods for calculating the level gross premium required to achieve a specific funding target under a typical universal life product design. The first method described utilizes summation techniques from numerical analysis to derive a general accumulation formula. Manipulating this formula leads to an expression for the modal gross funding premium. The second method uses a partial Taylor series expansion to derive a variant of the Newton-Raphson iteration formula, which can be shown to provide second-order convergence to the funding premium. Other iteration methods providing first-order convergence are also described. A more detailed discussion of these methods and their applicability can be found in the author’s paper “Calculating Funding Premiums for Universal Life Insurance, with Examples,” scheduled to be published in the 1999–2000 volume of the TSA Reports.     

吉林省寿险业存在的问题及对策

吉林省寿险业与国内平均水平、世界平均水平相比都存在很大差距。应采取切实可行的前瞻性对策，实施以保障改革，求发展，保稳定的新战略，采取必要措施，支持和扶持吉林省寿险业的发展。     

An Examination of the Demand for Life Insurance

For almost 50 years researchers have sought to explain consumer behavior concerning the purchase of life insurance. This study examines the literature relating to specific demographic and economic factors that may be identifiable as traits influencing the demand for life insurance, and discusses general environmental issues that may relate to life insurance demand. By organizing the wealth of literature in a useful and systematic format, noting consistencies and contradictions, this examination seeks to provide a better understanding of how and why life insurance purchases are made.     

论人寿保险公司的核心竞争力

我国寿险公司只有正确地处理客户、产品、销售和员工之间的关系,实现四者有机结合、相互协调、相互促进的契合关系,在价值观、企业文化、服务体系、人力资源、绩效管理以及知识共享等方面,比竞争对手更为领先、执行得更加有效,我国寿险公司才能在未来的激烈竞争中处于不败之地。     

The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries

This article examines the determinants of life insurance consumption in OECD countries. Consistent with previous results, we find a significant positive income elasticity of life insurance demand. Demand also increases with the number of dependents and level of education, and decreases with life expectancy and social security expenditure. The country's level of financial development and its insurance market's degree of competition appear to stimulate life insurance sales, whereas high inflation and real interest rates tend to decrease consumption. Overall, life insurance demand is better explained when the product market and socioeconomic factors are jointly considered. In addition, the use of GMM estimates helps reconcile our findings with previous puzzling results based on inconsistent OLS estimates given heteroscedasticity problems in the data.     

One Approach to Dual Randomness in Life Insurance

Abstract

1. The Unnatural Hypothesis of a Constant Rate of Interest

There are loan contracts which assume a constant interest during several years and thereafter payment of the amount borrowed, but nowadays clauses are as a rule admitted giving the debtor right of conversion or repayment after a certain period, generally ten years. Low interest loans can be considered as perpetuities from a practical point of view, as long as no possibility is meant to exist that the market rate will fall under their nominal rate. Such a loan—as e.g. Consols—with the nominal rate i ₀ ought to be valued at a discount if the market rate is higher, say i > i ₀, the value being equal to the fraction i ₀ : i. But constant rates are no rule in practice.