Partial Hedging for Equity-Linked Products Using Risk-Minimizing Strategies

In this article, we consider the pricing and hedging of equity-indexed annuities (EIAs) using local risk-minimizing strategies as well as evaluating the capital requirement for these products. Since these products involve mortality as well as financial risks, we integrate mortality risk and propose partial hedging strategies that protect the insurer based on risk measures. The framework we present makes use of sequential local risk-minimizing strategies to take into account all intermediate requirements. To demonstrate the flexibility of this framework we present numerical examples featuring point-to-point EIAs with a two-state regime-switching equity model.     

The Effect of Risk Aversion and Loss Aversion on Equity-Linked Life Insurance With Surrender Guarantees

We price equity-linked life insurance with surrender guarantees and account for risk preferences in the form of risk-averse and loss-averse policyholders in continuous time. Risk-averse policyholders surrender their policy for higher equity index values. Compared to optimally surrendered policies, this behavior creates substantial policy value losses. In contrast, loss-averse policyholders surrender once the surrender benefit realizes a gain but keep under-performing policies. This disposition effect reduces the policy value relative to both optimally surrendered policies and policies surrendered by risk-averse policyholders. Insurers in competitive markets need to estimate their policyholders’ risk preferences accurately.     

Valuation of Equity-Linked Insurance and Annuity Products with Binomial Models

Abstract

In this paper we develop a valuation method for equity-linked insurance products. We assume that the premium information of term life insurances, pure endowment insurances, and endowment insurances at all maturities is obtainable within a company or from the insurance market. Using a method similar to that of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), we derive three martingale probability measures associated with these basic insurance products. These measures are agedependent, include an adjustment for the mortality risk, and reproduce the premiums of the respective insurance products. We then extend the martingale measures to include the financial market information using copulas and use them to evaluate equity-linked insurance contracts and equity-indexed annuities in particular. This is different from the traditional approach under which diversification of mortality risk is assumed. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for various existing equity-indexed annuities in the North American market.     

Multivariate Models of Equity Returns for Investment Guarantees Valuation

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the valuation of investment guarantees in a multivariate (discrete-time) framework. We present how to build multivariate models in general, and we survey the most important multivariate GARCH models. A direct multivariate application of regime-switching models is also discussed, as is the estimation of these models using maximum likelihood and their comparison in a multivariate setting. The computation of the CTE provision is further presented. We have estimated the models with a multivariate dataset (Canada, United States, United Kingdom, and Japan), and we compared the quality of their fit using multiple criteria and tests. We observe that multivariate GARCH models provide a better overall fit than regime-switching models. However, regime-switching models appropriately represent the fat tails of the returns distribution, which is where most GARCH models fail. This leads to significant differences in the value of the CTE provisions, and, in general, provisions computed with regime-switching models are higher. Thus, the results from this multivariate analysis are in line with what was obtained in the literature of univariate models.     

Bayesian Risk Management for Equity-Linked Insurance

This paper describes how to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to a regime switching model of the stock price process to generate a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the model. The MCMC output can be used to generate a sample from the predictive distribution of losses from equity linked contracts, assuming first an actuarial approach to risk management and secondly a financial economics approach. The predictive distribution is used to show the effect of parameter uncertainty on risk management calculations. We also explore model uncertainty by assuming a GARCH model in place of the regime switching model. The results indicate that the financial economics approach to risk management is substantially more robust to parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty than the actuarial approach.     

互联网理财产品质量监管三方博弈分析

从金融机构、监管部门和投资者三者角度出发,对三者博弈关系进行理论研究,并构建互联网理财产品质量监管三方博弈模型。通过求解精练贝叶斯纳什均衡,揭示在信息不对称情况下,金融机构、监管部门和投资者的相互影响关系。最终,结合博弈模型的结果为金融机构、监管部门和投资者提出建议,以提高我国互联网理财产品的质量。     

人力资本投资分析

人力资本投资包括教育投资和在职培训投资等。教育投资是提高人力资本知识存量和技能存量的主要途径，它包括家庭教育投资、正规学校教育投资、成人教育投资。在职培训投资是教育投资的继续。在职培训投资不论是对个人还是对企业都有一个成本问题。     

投资型产品、证券市场与保险投资深化

寿险公司的负债业务风险与资产业务局限 长期以来,我国人寿保险公司所经营的长期品种,基本上是储蓄型的传统产品.传统寿险产品的利率、死亡、费用率都是预先确定的.如果预定利率低于银行存款利率、预定死亡率高于实际死亡率、预定费用率高于实际费用率,即保险公司获得"三差益";反之,保险公司将遭受"三差损".在"三差"中,利率差对长期寿险产品的影响最大.随经济形势的变化,利率在长期内是不断波动的,短期内很难准确把握.由于实行预定利率,往往使传统寿险产品的经营陷入一个两难的困境:如果预定过高,在实际利率降低时,寿险公司将背上"利差损"包袱,持续发展受到威胁;如果预定利率过低,会削弱保险产品的市场竞争力,客户资金将趋向高回报率的金融产品,导致投保率下降.     

境外放款、内保外贷与境外直接投资协同监管研究——以河南省为例

目前,我国资本项目双向开放的格局正在向纵深发展,企业走出去步伐不断加快,自2014年以来始终保持世界第二大对外投资国的地位。作为境外直接投资管理部门之一,国家外汇管理局在简化境外投资外汇登记的同时,先后出台了境外放款和内保外贷等多项部门规章,支持境外投资企业充分利用境内外融资渠道以实现更好的发展,并取得了较好的效果。不过,也需要看到,现行境外投资业务跨部门、跨业务以及条线式的管理模式越来越不适应业务发展状况,甚至在一定程度上影响了正常的对外投资业务秩序,也加大了跨境资金流动风险,亟须对管理模式予以完善。在全面分析境外投资、境外放款和内保外贷三项业务管理现状的基础上,结合外汇管理改革进程,提出了统筹安排、协同监管的监管思路。     

境外放款、内保外贷与境外直接投资协同监管研究——以河南省为例

目前,我国资本项目双向开放的格局正在向纵深发展,企业"走出去"步伐不断加快,自2014年以来始终保持世界第二大对外投资国的地位。作为境外直接投资管理部门之一,国家外汇管理局在简化境外投资外汇登记的同时,先后出台了境外放款和内保外贷等多项部门规章,支持境外投资企业充分利用境内外融资渠道以实现更好的发展,并取得了较好的效果。不过,也需要看到,现行境外投资业务跨部门、跨业务以及条线式的管理模式越来越不适应业务发展状况,甚至在一定程度上影响了正常的对外投资业务秩序,也加大了跨境资金流动风险,亟须对管理模式予以完善。在全面分析境外投资、境外放款和内保外贷三项业务管理现状的基础上,结合外汇管理改革进程,提出了统筹安排、协同监管的监管思路。     

个人教育投资的均衡分析

人力资本投资的关键形式是教育投资。文章认为,个人教育投资的均衡条件是边际成本等于边际收益。因为个人教育投资的边际成本递增,边际收益递减,所以必须采取多种措施刺激个人教育投资的积极性,才能促进我国教育事业的大发展。     

外资企业股权投资税收筹划之辨析

这里有一篇关于外商投资企业股权投资的税收筹划案例*: “某有限公司是中美合资企业,注册资本4000万元,美国投资者A占注册资本的80％。经过几年经营,企业形成的资本公积金有1000万元,未分配利润9000万元,企业所有者权益合计为1.4亿元。由于企业效益好,发展潜力大,美国另一投资者B也想     

正确看待投资型保险产品的发展

麦肯锡最新出炉的一份调查显示,2004年国内寿险保单退保金额逾300亿元,被退掉的保单大多数由国内保险公司发行,并集中在3年期或者更长期的投资产品上。本文主要介绍了在当今形势下,应如何正确认识投资型保险产品,培育一个成熟的消费市场,使得投资型保险产品得以循序渐进地发展。     

试析金融理财产品的法律要点

本文通过介绍和分析金融理财产品的特点和类别,比较了国内外金融理财产品的定义模式,认为我国应对金融理财产品进行统一定义,在具体立法技术上可以参考日本的模式。     

Control and Out-of-Sample Validation of Dependent Risks

This article introduces a framework to determine and allocate capital reserves to multiple dependent business lines, with or without overall reserve level constraints. The proposed methodology emphasizes the role of the loss function in the validation criterion and its conditional interpretation. Univariate and multivariate examples are discussed in detail.     

上市公司投资价值分析

本文通过对中国证券市场发展过程中,投资理念逐步转变为价值投资,随着中国证券市场的逐步成熟和法律监管体系的进一步完善,越来越关注企业的内在价值以赚取分红送股。本文分析了国内外上市公司投资价值的背景和重要性,从宏观背景、产业、市场和区域因素和公司情况等方面对上市公司投资价值分析的方法进行了阐述。并重点对公司情况的基本面、财务、投资收益水平、偿债能力和获利及发展水平进行了具体的投资价值的分析,以及各指标公式的使用方法。旨在帮助投资者理性分析选择,挖掘上市公司的内在价值,并能获得较理想的收益。     

投资联结保险的相关问题

投资连结保险是一种融保障和投资理财于一体，代表国际保险业最新潮流的非传统寿险险种，在我国，投资连结保险刚刚推出，是一个需要在发展中不断完善和壮大的新型险种。     

On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation

Recent studies in the empirical finance literature have reportedevidence of two types of asymmetries in the joint distributionof stock returns. The first is skewness in the distributionof individual stock returns. The second is an asymmetry in thedependence between stocks: stock returns appear to be more highlycorrelated during market downturns than during market upturns.In this article we examine the economic and statistical significanceof these asymmetries for asset allocation decisions in an out-of-samplesetting. We consider the problem of a constant relative riskaversion (CRRA) investor allocating wealth between the risk-freeasset, a small-cap portfolio, and a large-cap portfolio. Weuse models that can capture time-varying moments up to the fourthorder, and we use copula theory to construct models of the time-varyingdependence structure that allow for different dependence duringbear markets than bull markets. The importance of these twoasymmetries for asset allocation is assessed by comparing theperformance of a portfolio based on a normal distribution modelwith a portfolio based on a more flexible distribution model.For investors with no short-sales constraints, we find thatknowledge of higher moments and asymmetric dependence leadsto gains that are economically significant and statisticallysignificant in some cases. For short sales-constrained investorsthe gains are limited.     

An Analysis of Contrarian Investment Strategies in the UK

The performance of contrarian, or value strategies – those that invest in stocks that have low market value relative to a measure of their fundamentals – continues to attract attention from researchers and practitioners alike. While there is much extant evidence on the profitability of value strategies, however, most of this evidence pertains to the US. In this paper, we provide a detailed characterisation of value strategies using data on UK stocks for the period 1975 to 1998. We first undertake simple one-way and two-way classifications of stocks in which value is defined using both past performance and expected future performance. Using sales growth as a proxy for past performance and book-to-market, earnings yield and cash flow yield as measures of expected future performance, we find that that stocks that have both poor past performance and low expected future performance have significantly higher returns than those that have either good past performance or good expected future performance. Allowing for size effects in returns reduces the value premium but it nevertheless remains significant. We go on to explore whether the profitability of value strategies in the UK can be explained using the three factor model of Fama and French (1996). Broadly consistent with the results for the US, we find that using the one-way classification the excess returns to almost all value strategies can be explained by their loading on the market, book-to-market and size factors. However, in contrast with the US, using the two-way classification there are excess returns to value strategies based on book-to-market and sales growth, even after controlling for their loading on the market, book-to-market and size factors.     

Fair Valuation of Equity-Linked Policies under Insurer Default Risk

Abstract

We consider the problem of computing the fair value of equity-linked policies with an interestrate guarantee when the insurer is subject to credit risk. The framework is developed based on modern financial theory using the no-arbitrage principle. In this context, an equity-linked policy is considered as a vulnerable contingent claim that expires before maturity if the firm asset value reaches a prespecified default threshold depending on the firm’s liabilities. We derive a closedform formula in a continuous-time environment to compute the fair value of the contract. We also develop a discrete-time model that allows us to address fair evaluation when the policy embeds a surrender option.