Risk and the Value of Bt Corn

A conceptual model is developed to evaluate the effect of Bt corn on risk. Results highlight the importance of distinguishing between marginal and aggregate risk effects and demonstrate that the effect of Bt corn on risk depends crucially on the price paid for the technology. Empirical results show that, depending on the price, Bt corn can be marginally risk increasing or decreasing and can either increase or decrease corn acreage. Also, depending on the price, Bt corn can provide a risk benefit to farmers, even when Bt corn is risk increasing.     

黑龙江省银行汇率避险产品发展现状及对策

汇改重启后,各类经济主体避险意识显著增强,对汇率避险产品的需求更为迫切。从黑龙江省外汇指定银行汇率避险产品发展现状谈起,以案例分析的形式,综合评估目前在用的避险产品特性,分析其对国际收支及跨境资金流动的影响,从国家监管、银行经营管理和企业层面剖析了黑龙江省银行汇率避险产品发展的制约因素,提出了相关政策建议,以更好地支持和加强银行汇率避险服务。     

Recovering the Shadow Value of Nutrients

This article investigates the shadow values of twenty-eight different nutrients. It links the unit price of foods to the shadow values of nutrients by building on a utility theoretic model first proposed by Gorman. Maximum entropy principles are then used to reason consistently about the values of the parameters of interest. The resulting estimates are discussed and analyzed.     

土地生态风险评价的理论基础及模型构建

研究目的:探讨土地生态风险评价的理论基础并构建评价模型。研究方法:文献资料法,对比法。研究结果:目前中国对于土壤风险评价大多数是针对土壤中重金属和农药污染,还没有形成完善的方法和指标体系来表征或评价包含物理压力、化学压力和生物压力在内的土地生态风险,如何在实践中辨识土地生态风险的压力因子,如何进行有效的生态风险评价并用之于土地管理还没有成熟的方法。研究结论:将土地生态风险压力因子分为物理因子、化学因子和生物因子,可为土地生态风险评价提供新的思路和理论基础。     

The influence of management decisions and external factors on the dairy farmer's environmentally friendly farming objective: the Green Dairy experience

Ten dairy farms participated in an EU project that aimed to improve nitrogen use and assist with the adoption of more environmentally friendly farming practices. Nitrogen use and management decisions were monitored during 2003, 2004 and 2005. Nine farms improved nitrogen use (nitrogen output relative to input) in Year 2. Four farms maintained or further improved nitrogen use in Year 3. Management decisions and external factors that improved nitrogen use were increasing farm milk output, adopting best management practices for nitrogen use, growing forage crops that required less nitrogen than grass and favourable crop production conditions that rendered large quantities of good quality forage. Decisions that worsened nitrogen use were increasing cow numbers without sufficient management support, the late start of supplementary feeding when grass quality declined, setting the target yield too high, pursuing a higher milk price, less palatable silage and disease. Sufficient slurry storage is essential to improving nitrogen use. The savings from lower nitrogen input and the revenue from milk were in no proportion to the investments required for additional slurry storage, however. The farmers did adopt environmentally friendly practices, but only to the degree their businesses were able to sustain.     

森林资源资产化经营风险与防范策略分析

从风险与风险管理的角度出发,将风险理论引入森林资源资产化经营中,提出森林资源资产化经营风险的定义,在分析其主要风险类型的基础上,提出保险、灾害救济、建立风险基金和最低价格保护制度、补贴信贷、加强信息服务、加强基础研究与深化体制改革等防范与应对森林资源资产化经营风险的策略,以促进中国的森林资源资产化管理进程。     

The Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995–2003 corn and soybean crops. A new database from the Agricultural Market Advisory Services (AgMAS) Project is used in the evaluation. This database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases. Overall, the results provide little evidence that advisory services as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. The evidence is more positive versus the farmer benchmarks, even after taking risk into account. Results also suggest that it is difficult to predict the pricing performance of advisory services across crop-years.     

玉米的常规储存与管理探讨

为玉米安全度过保管期,保持原有物理性质,延缓玉米的卫生品质指标的下降.根据玉米的储藏特点以及每段时期的保管方法和玉米入库时期的操作情况,总结出玉米的周期保管经验,提出了玉米质量管理的基本要求,包括:把好入库质量关、选择入库时机、粮情检查及粮堆发热诊断等.管理措施的实施有效地减少了玉米的保管损耗,起到了降本增效的目的.     

加强碎石骨料矿山管理,应对北京城市化需求

碎石骨料是自然界中分布最广泛的矿物,也是世界上开采最多的矿物,是我国城市化最基本的资源保障.随着北京城市化进程的不断深入,碎石骨料消费量持续增长,碎石骨料矿山行业迅猛发展,但也出现了骨料矿山规模过小、行业管理滞后、环境污染严重、安全事故频发、骨料矿山产品质量差等一系列问题.因此,有必要对该行业加强管理,包括改善行业主管部门管理方式,设定骨料矿山行业标准、提高进入标准,加强投入产出分析、提高骨料矿山的生产经营水平等方面.     

Matching Supply and Demand: The Value of a Second Chance in Producing Seed Corn

This paper analyzes the supply chain for hybrid seed corn in which there are two sequential production periods with random yields before demand occurs. We show that the problem of managing the supply chain can be viewed as a multiperiod optimization model that is easily solved. By examining data that represents actual costs, prices, and yields encountered in the seed corn industry, we gain some insight into the value that the second production period provides. Using a representative sample of hybrids from a major seed corn producer, we show that margins could be enhanced considerably by using the model.     

林业项目投资风险管理对策分析

项目风险管理是现代项目管理中的一个重要组成部分。林业项目投资面临自然风险、社会风险和政策风险。规避风险,可以从改变风险后果的性质和降低风险发生概率等方面采取多种对策,主要可采取风险减轻、预防、转移、回避、接受和储备等6项措施。     

企业现金管理存在的问题与对策

介绍现金管理的主重要内容、作用,分析企业现金管理存在的问题及原因,提出完善企业现金管理的措施,从而完成企业经营的最终目标。     

地质灾害风险管理研究综述及展望

地质灾害风险管理是一种寻求更加合理有效的地质灾害减灾防灾的理念和模式。国外对于地质灾害风险管理的研究,主要是通过采用现代高技术与地质灾害风险管理相结合的方式体现出来的。国内学者对我国地质灾害的类型、特征、影响因素、分布状况和区域发展规律等进行了深入的研究,提出了许多新理论、新观点。需要解决的问题:(1)如何评估灾情程度需要科学的理论与切实可行的方法;(2)需要借助现代信息技术和数值模拟仿真技术建立地质灾害风险评价与风险管理的数学模型,以进一步拓展地质灾害风险管理的研究体系;(3)需要结合具体的区域,对风险管理措施、手段及传导机制进行系统仿真和比较研究。     

The Collusion-deterring Effect of Pre-attributed Supplies and the Hog Auction in Quebec

The hog/pork industry in Quebec has been going through major institutional changes since 1989, the year an electronic auction was put in place to market all of the hogs in the province. Because the auction's ability to generate high prices did not meet the expectations of hog producers, the pure auction system was replaced by a hybrid one in 1994. In this system, most of the hog supply was pre-attributed to processors at a negotiated price based on the US. price while the remainder of the provincial supply of hogs was sold through the auction. In this paper, we investigate how a seemingly inefficient marketing mechanism like pre-attributions can increase the efficiency of a usually efficient mechanism like an auction. We present theoretical arguments regarding the sustainability of collusion under the pure auction and hybrid systems in addition to analyzing auction prices with modern time series tools.