基于可拓综合评价法的干旱区水资源承载力评价——以河西走廊地区为例

[目的]水资源是经济社会发展依赖的重要资源,水资源短缺是制约干旱区经济社会发展的瓶颈。通过研究,了解河西走廊干旱区水资源可持续开发利用状况,实现该区域社会经济良性发展。[方法]文章构建了水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用可拓综合评价法对河西走廊地区真实情景期(2003~2015年)、仿真情景期(2016~2025年)的水资源承载力进行测评。[结果](1)2003~2015年,河西走廊地区5市水资源承载力综合水平总体上呈波动上升趋势,武威市从强赤字承载波动上升为弱赤字承载。金昌、张掖、酒泉、嘉峪关从强赤字承载过渡到临界承载状态。(2)2016~2025年,水资源承载力综合水平呈逐步上升态势,武威和张掖从临界承载逐步上升为盈余可承载,金昌和酒泉由临界承载逐渐演变为基本可承载,而嘉峪关的综合水平虽然一直处于强赤字承载,但对应的关联度已经从2016年的-0.073下降为2025年的-0.259。[结论]农业用水量比重大,农业生产效益低下,水资源开发利用率高,成为制约该区域水资源可持续开发利用的瓶颈。     

基于GIS的关中—天水经济区人口分布特征及影响因素研究

［目的］通过分析2007—2015年关中—天水经济区的人口数量时空变化趋势、分布特征和人口变化的影响因素,可为经济区人口政策、产业布局、城市规划等方面发展提供决策参考。［方法］文章采用城市首位度、人口不均衡指数和GIS手段对关中—天水经济区人口分布特征及影响因素进行研究。［结果］（1）2007—2015年,经济区平均人口自然增长率增幅逐年降低,但人口总数仍保持稳定增长; 西安市人口规模不断扩大,城市集聚效应不断增强。（2）经济区人口不均衡指数连年上升,人口分布呈现不均衡化发展,相对东部沿海地区,较高的人口不均衡指数表明其人口分布不均较为显著。（3）经济区人口密度低值区集中分布在秦岭北麓、渭北旱塬沟壑区和秦岭南麓; 人口密度高值区与人口分布热点区都集中分布在以西安、咸阳为中心的大城市; 人口密度分布等级除西安变化明显外,其余各市均保持稳定,但各等级人口密度值均发生变化,如西安市单位面积内人口数量逐年增加。（4）经济发展水平、自然环境、文化因素是影响经济区人口分布的重要因素。［结论］经济区在未来发展中,不仅要考虑区域内人口流动情况,自然地理环境、社会文化因素,还要提高经济欠发达地区的经济水平,不断促进区域人口分布的均衡化。     

黔南州水资源承载力研究

水资源是区域经济社会发展重要的基础支撑物质系统。水资源的利用及其承载力研究是区域水资源规划和开发利用管理的重要依据。以黔南州为实例,分析了当地水资源变化趋势和用水结构变化,应用"承载人口数"定量研究黔南州地区不同福利生活水平下的水资源所能承载的人口数量与经济发展规模,并对几种方法进行了对比研究,结果发现水资源承载力不能就水资源单因子研究地区人口承载力,应根据地区资源因子找出承载力的控制因子。黔南州喀斯特人口承载力的决定性限制"原位性资源"是土地资源人口承载的极限,地区水资源丰沛,但水资源开发利用率低,已成为影响和制约喀斯特地区可持续发展主要制约因素,水资源可承载的人口数量有足够的空间,建议在考虑技术上的可行性、经济上的合理性以及生态环境的可承受性,通过工程措施提高黔南州水资源开发利用率,推动黔南州2020年全面建成小康社会。     

基于熵权Topsis的淮河生态经济带水资源承载力评价

[目的]评价发展规划驱动下的水资源承载力特征,为区域发展提供科学依据。[方法]以淮河生态经济带为对象,采用熵权重的Topsis评价方法,分析淮河生态经济带水资源承载力的区域差异及其影响因素。[结果] 2015年不同市县水资源承载力综合得分介于0. 305 8～0. 698 8之间,其中盐城市最高,桐柏县最低;境内江苏、安徽、河南3省的水资源承载力分别为0. 585 2、0. 478 2、0. 524 9。[结论](1)淮河生态经济带水资源承载力具有在淮河干流上、下游承载力高,但中游偏低的空间分布特征。(2)水资源系统层面,水资源总量是承载力高低的供给侧决定性因素,是水资源承载力高低的重要基础。(3)社会系统中,用水量与用水结构是提升和优化水资源承载力的调控性因素。(4)城镇化发展与人口增加是水资源承载力高低的胁迫性因素,而经济发展水平是水资源承载力调控的重要保证。     

努力实现关中——天水经济区在西部率先发展

《关中一天水经济区发展规划》的获批,标志着关中一天水经济区与上海浦东新区、天津滨海新区、武汉长沙城市群、北部湾经济区、成渝经济区一起成为国家新的经济区。规划建设关中一天水经济区．把大关中的发展提升到全国和西部大开发的战略层面加以推进．是促进区域协调发展、打造西部大开发战略高地的重大举措。按照规划目标．关中一天水经济区综合经济实力将实现新跨越,到2020年,经济总量要占到西北地区比重超过三分之一．人均地区生产总值翻两番以上．城乡居民收入水平大幅提高．自我发展能力显著增强．     

珠江资源环境承载力指标体系构建

[目的]资源与环境是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础。由经济快速发展引发的资源过度消耗、环境污染加重、生态遭受破坏等问题日益严峻,由工业化引发的资源和环境问题已经严重影响珠江地区的发展,构建珠江资源环境承载力指标体系对资源环境保护和国土规划具有重要意义。[方法]文章详细分析珠江流域资源环境现状,根据资源和环境承载力指标体系构建原则,并遵循可持续发展,人与自然相和谐,地域分异规律和生态经济理论。[结果]共构建9个水资源承载力指标,8个土地资源承载力指标,13个大气环境承载力指标,6个水环境承载力指标,从人口经济,工业,农业和城市角度构建了11个土壤环境承载力指标,并对珠江流域资源环境状况进行了分析。[结论]虽然近些年,国家加大了对珠江流域资源环境的保护和治理,但该地区的环境污染形势依然非常严峻,"三废"排放严重污染了周围的自然环境,对经济社会的发展构成了威胁。珠江流域水资源开发率也在逐年降低,合理开发水资源也是目前需要攻克的难题。     

江苏沿海地区水资源承载力研究——以盐城市为例

区域水资源承载力是进行生态环境建设和确定社会经济发展的基础。根据水资源承载能力评价指标体系建立的原则,将盐城市发展分为水资源、社会经济以及生态环境3个子系统,构建了水资源承载力模糊综合评价模型,并应用该模型对盐城市水资源进行综合评价。结果表明:盐城市水资源开发利用已达到相当规模,在现有经济技术条件下,该地区的水资源承载潜力已相对较小,水资源供需矛盾突出。提出提高水资源承载力的对策,为该区域今后水资源开发利用提供依据。     

从相对承载力视角看湖北省水资源可持续利用

采用相对资源承载力的研究思路与方法,研究了湖北省2000～2007年相对水资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力和综合承载力的情况及其变化过程。结果表明:与全国平均水平相比,湖北省相对资源承载力处于超载状态;与中部其他5省相比,除湖南省外,湖北省相对资源承载力处于富余状态;湖北省的水资源对综合承载力的贡献率高于经济资源对综合承载力的贡献率,是湖北省人口的主要承载资源;与湖北省的平均水平相比,湖北省17市(州)相对资源承载力的地区差异较为明显。建议采取综合措施,促进湖北省水资源的可持续利用。     

城市经济承载力测算研究

将城市的经济承载力简要地定义为在不同时间尺度上,在经济社会可持续发展的条件下,对乌鲁木齐市辖区的经济发展水平所能承载的人口数量。用人口-经济承载力模型法、就业人口承载力模型法等城市经济承载力的测算方法在乌鲁木齐市进行具体应用,进而测算出乌鲁木齐市的城市经济承载力和潜在城市经济承载力。     

云南省农业资源与经济增长协调性分析

[目的]云南省是我国资源丰富的农业大省,探究其农业资源与经济增长的协调性有利于把握农业发展的方向,对实现经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章利用熵权法确定指标权重,并构建耦合模型计算得到农业资源与经济增长的耦合协调度,根据协调度水平划分等级,最终确定云南省协调发展水平。[结果](1)2007—2016年经济发展水平呈阶梯式上升的趋势;土地资源和水资源综合评价值呈波浪式曲线;2007—2011年资源污染治理水平综合评价值急剧下降,2011—2016年呈缓慢上升的趋势。(2)2007—2016年经历了从轻度失调到初级协调的阶段。(3)2007—2009年农业资源与经济增长处于低度协调耦合, 2010—2012年两者处于中度协调耦合, 2013后过渡到高度协调耦合。[结论]2007—2016年云南省农业资源与经济增长的耦合协调度向良好态势转变,目前处于高度协调耦合。虽然耦合协调度较好,但耦合度较低,因此,应该积极转变生产方式,调整产业结构,坚持发展生态经济,促进经济与资源的协调发展。     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.     

国土资源行政管理的若干应用基础理论问题（上）——自然资源属性分析

从自然属性、技术属性、经济属性三个角度分析入手 ,建立了自然资源的科学分类体系。     

实施全球资源战略 保障资源供应安全

实施全球资源战略是经济全球化趋势的客观要求,而经济全球化在为发展中国家提供发展机遇的同时,又对国家安全提出了严峻挑战.本文在阐述我国实施全球资源战略客观性、必要性的基础上,提出了我国实施全球资源战略中防范和抵御全球化负面影响、保障资源供应安全的措施建议.     

重构乡村基层社会生活的实态--一个值得深入考察的徽州古村落宅坦

古村落宅坦位于绩溪西部的崇山峻岭之中 ,胡氏宗族在生存条件极为恶劣的情况下 ,组织族人改造环境 ,使之成为人与自然和谐相处的乡村社会。千百年来 ,在特定的时空条件下 ,经过一系列的社会变迁 ,古村落已形成宗族组织、文化科举和商业的良性互动 ,从而创造了古村落的文明。三者之间宗族居于核心地位。传统中国社会的动乱也会在这里引起反响 ,但是由于宗族聚居的格局使古村落乃至徽州社会具有特殊的应变力 ,直至近代仍保持自身的稳定。宅坦村有着丰富的资料遗存 ,为我们在宅坦从事田野考察、重构古村落的实态 ,提供了必要的前提。可以预见 ,宅坦必将以其丰富的人文内涵为世人所瞩目