自主创新与转变经济增长方式之研究

自主创新能力和科技进步已经成为社会经济发展的决定力量和各国综合实力竞争的焦点。自主创新是劳动力、资本、自然资源、技术、知识和管理等多种生产要素的新组合。而这些生产要素之间的和谐又构成经济增长方式的本质特征。国家应当注重技术创新、体制创新、文化理念创新和人才观念创新,促进经济增长方式的转变,增强企业在国内外市场的竞争力,从而实现国家经济、社会发展的目标。     

Calculating credibility: print culture,trust and economic figures in early eighteenth-century England1

Credit in early modern England has been studied by both social historians of the market and historians of the book. The intersection of these literatures is explored by asking the question: how did producers of books about interest (which was closely connected to credit) convince readers that their books could be trusted? One particular book is considered: a palm-sized book of interest calculations by John Castaing. Most importantly, and unusually, many copies of this book contain his signature, which, it is argued, must be interpreted in the context of the particular role that signatures played in guaranteeing financial transactions.     

欧盟能源一体化战略探析

欧盟的能源一体化战略着力于对内完善欧洲能源内部市场和统一内部标准,对外进行对外能源对话与发展战略合作伙伴关系,并采取了一些前瞻性的措施,以便通过"缓慢的能源市场一体化",逐步建立一个以欧盟为中心的跨国能源大市场。虽然能源一体化取得了巨大成就,但也存在许多阻碍,例如欧盟各成员国在电力和天然气市场的竞争政策差异以及欧盟制度因素对能源市场一体化的阻碍。     

De noordse economische integratie

Summary The post-war attempts to achieve a Nordic regional economic integration have not yet been successful, partly as a result of the establishment of the European Free Trade Association. These attempts were apparently shelved when two of the four Nordic countries — Denmark and Norway — applied for a membership of the European Common Market. However pending the negotiations for entry to the EEC, a draft Treaty for the establishment of the Organization for Nordic Economic Co-operation (Nordec) was drawn up on the instruction of the governments of the Nordic countries. In this paper the possible effects of this regional Nordic Common Market, when established, are briefly analyzed. The author also investigates the increase in intra-Nordic trade since EFTA was created. In view of the interprenetation of Nordic trade flows resulting from EFTA, it is highly unlikely, that Sweden could remain outside a large, integrated European market, which Denmark and Norway had joined.      

Measurement of English farming technological change, 1523–1900

I have argued that for the period from 1661 to 1850, patent data in England were consistent in that no official changes in methods and standards of issuance occurred. Book data on titles published on farming production methods were similarly consistent from 1523 to the mid-19th century because the market for books developed gradually and the technology of printing was not substantially changed until the mid-19th century.My main point is that data on output of titles of books on farming productive techniques in England are useful measures of technological change. Books did have information on good production methods and could express productive ideas where a patent may not be issued. Further, the literacy rate of farmers was high so that books were likely an important source of ideas on farming production methods. Finally, the fluctuations in the book data were highly related to the fluctuations in the patent data, suggesting that a common set of factors caused those fluctuations. The high correlations between the detrended book and patent data indicate that if we accept patenting as a useful measure of technology we may also accept book title output of a technical nature as a good measure of technical change.I used the data for a simple analysis of the trend growth rate of agricultural technology in England from 1551 to 1850. While there is limited evidence to show that the subperiod 1651–1750 saw a slowing in the trend of development of farming technology, I argue that a division of the entire period into subperiods is too simplistic. A more fruitful approach would be an analysis of the underlying forces that determined the trend of development of the technology of English agriculture.The next step is an analysis of the forces that influenced technological development of English farming. From an economic point of view, market forces play an important role in influencing technology. Because such an analysis deserves careful consideration, I leave that to another paper (see Sullivan and Simon, 1983).     

Globalization and Regionalization – Taiwan's Perspective

If Taiwan becomes a member of GATT, she can pursue the multilateral free trade agreement provided by the GATT framework. Nonetheless, regionalism is rising. Taiwan may be able to benefit from the great potential of the single European market. However, this prospect is diluted by the EC's concentration on intraregional trade and its frequent use of protectionist measures. The development of NAFTA will not have a substantial diversion effect on Taiwan, though the situation may vary from industry to industry. A Pacific free trade area should be an objective for countries in this region. However, a flexible strategy should be adopted in order to reach that goal. This is especially true for Taiwan.     

An Impossible Goal: When Trade Ratios Cannot Achieve No-Net-Loss

I develop a model of environmental trade ratios with asymmetric information to explain why current policies fail to achieve goals of no-net-impact on the environment, as well as demonstrating that it may be impossible to achieve these goals. Environmental trade ratios (e.g., wetland mitigation ratios or carbon offset discounting) typically have the goal of no-net environmental impact; however, these goals are not always met. First, I demonstrate that it is sometimes impossible for trade ratios to achieve no-net-impact on the environment. Second, I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of a neutral trade ratio. Next, I show that naïve methods for setting ratios (which do not consider market responses) will fail to meet policy goals. Finally, I demonstrate how a simple updating procedure can adjust ratios toward no-net-impact even when policy makers have minimal information.     

The occupational attainment of migrants and natives in Barcelona, 1930

Very few empirical studies have analysed the labour market performance of migrants in European countries in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This article uses a rich new micro‐dataset to examine the occupational attainment of migrants, mostly internal migrants, in the city of Barcelona, a key destination from the late nineteenth century onwards, adding to the literature on internal migrations in Spain during the period of industrialization. The study shows that the occupational outcomes achieved by early migrants tended to match those of natives, the reference group. However, some groups of migrants who arrived at the end of the period covered by the study show poorer outcomes than natives. The relative underachievement of these groups is explained by changes in the type of migrants and in the characteristics of the labour market. Our estimates also suggest that Spanish migrants did not experience upward occupational mobility after settling in Barcelona.     

欧盟区域政策实施效果研究

欧盟是目前各国实现区域经济一体化的典范,但其内部的发展差距也是很大的。欧盟内部发展不平衡既存在于各成员国之间,也存在于成员国内各地区之间。各地区存在着广泛的自然资源差距,不同的区位差异,不同的文化背景和种族差别,这种差别也体现在地区经济发展水平的不平衡上。经过三十多年的实践,欧盟区域政策无论在制度基础,区域划分还是政策工具等方面都是极为成熟和完善的,借鉴欧盟区域政策成熟的运行机理,对我国制定和实施区域政策,缩小地区经济差异有十分重要的意义。     

The contribution of the European Common Market to the growth of its member countries: An empirical test

Conclusion The test made here, of the impact of the European Common Market on the growth of its member countries, indicates that there has not been a statistically significant difference between the growth of EEC countries and the non-EEC developed market economies.     

Financial market integration, stock markets and exchange rate dynamics in Eastern Europe

International capital flows in a system of flexible exchange rates will affect stock market dynamics and stock market developments should affect capital flows and the exchange rate respectively. In this analysis, four accession countries have been considered in order to examine any potential links between nominal stock market index and nominal exchange rate. For this purpose, monthly data were used. The cointegration concept was employed for testing long-term links and the VAR approach for short-term links. Finally, Granger causality tests were employed for the determination of the exogenous and endogenous variables. The results show that significant links exist between the stock market index and the foreign exchange rate for three countries, where for Poland, both long-term and short-term links exist. The other key aspect considered in this analysis is the stock market integration in Eastern European countries. Our analysis shows that the integration of the stock markets in Eastern European countries seems to be rather week except for the Hungarian stock market. This means that only the Hungarian stock market is integrated. A standard regression analysis reveals that the Hungarian market exhibits a strong co-movement with the benchmark market, i.e. the German stock market. Furthermore, there is a clear-cut result with respect to the dynamic of stock market synchronization. The degree of synchronization increased particularly in the period 2005–2008.     

Monetary unification and the price of risk: An unconditional analysis

In this paper, the standard International Arbitrage Pricing Theory is used to assess the effects of European monetary unification on the functioning of the European financial market. In particular, the focus is on the effects that unification may have had on the risk-sharing capacity of the financial markets. It is found that, already in the ERM decade, exchange rate changes do not (unconditionally) correlate strongly with financial market movements across countries. Consequently, elimination of exchange rate variability through monetary unification is not likely to have major implications for the pricing behavior in EMU. JEL no. G12, G15     

European Union enlargement: An historic milestone in the process of European integration

Ten European countries with economies in transition and two market economies are negotiating full membership with the European Union. This paper considers the economic dimension of the forthcoming enlargement of the European Union, especially on the characteristics of the economies in transition and on the economic implications of the enlargement for European Union agriculture. The transition of the central and eastern European countries from a centrally planned to a market economy, although already in progress for a decade, is far from complete. Uneven macroeconomic developments in the various countries can be attributed to some extent to their individual situation at the start of the transformation. However, they also reflect the varying extent to which institutional reform programs have been implemented in these countries.Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 13–20, 2001, Athens, Greece.     

Regulation and the Valuation Relevance of Book Value and Earnings: Evidence from the United States*

Electric utilities in the United States are subject to a cost-plus normal profits pricing that is designed to align the market value of equity with the balance sheet book value. Perfect alignment implies the equality of the market and book values. Extant empirical evidence suggests that, for these utilities, actual cost/profit recovery does not follow a pure cost-plus pricing, raising the prospect that income statement items contribute to the determination of market value. What is not obvious is the extent to which the noted departure from pure cost-plus pricing results in misalignment of the market and book values, or the relative contribution of income statement items to the valuation of electric utility shares. This study pursues this question, using benchmark results for a sample of manufacturing firms to highlight the degree of market-to-book alignment for regulated and competitive firms. The results show a considerable alignment of the market and book values for utilities. In examining the relevance of book value and income statement items in the determination of market value, it is found that the contribution of earnings level to explaining market value diminishes markedly in the presence of book value for electric utilities, and the contribution of earnings change to explaining returns diminishes markedly in the presence of earnings levels. Earnings level complements book value in explaining market value for manufacturing firms, while earnings change complements earnings level in explaining returns. The results further show that the market and accounting values exhibit pronounced misalignments in returns-earnings models, especially for utilities.     

农民图书信息需求动机分析——基于三亚市的调查

新型农民是现代农业和新农村建设的主力军,培养具有高素质、有文化的新型农民对现代农业发展事业至关重要。以三亚市农民为调查对象，首先调查三亚市农民对图书信息需求的现状，在这基础上，运用问卷调查、定量与定性相结合等方法分析研究农民对图书信息的需求动机，并利用IBM SPSS19.0软件对需求类型部分的数据进行分析整理。得出结论：三亚市农民需求动机包括解决生产生活实际问题、丰富个人社会文化生活和提高个人日常生活质量等三个维度。     

Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the determinants of bilateral trade flows among 47 countries and, particularly, the effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas: European Union (EU), North-American Free Trade Area NAFTA), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Centro-American Common Market (CACM), and other Mediterranean countries (MEDIT). The period under study is from 1980–99. The authors estimate a gravity equation that allows the comparison of the weight of the influence of preferential agreements and also, infers the relevance of other determinants of bilateral trade flows such us geographic proximity, income levels, population, and cultural similarities. The analysis is undertaken for each year of the sample in order to capture the temporal evolution of the impacts on trade of the different variables considered. Using the estimation results as a base, trade potentials resulting from new free trade agreements are calculated.     

The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

The impact of market regulations on intra-European real exchange rates

We study the contribution of market regulations to the dynamics of the real exchange rate within the European Union. Based on a model proposed by De Gregorio et al. (Rev Int Econ 2(3):284–305, 1994a), we show that both product market regulations in nontradable sectors and employment protection tend to raise the real exchange rate. We then carry out an econometric estimation for European countries for 1985–2006 to quantify the contributions of the pure Balassa–Samuelson effect and those of market regulations on real exchange-rate variations. Based on this evidence and on a counter-factual experiment, we conclude that the relative evolutions of product market regulations and employment protection across countries play a very significant role for real exchange-rate variations within the European Union and especially within the euro area, through their impacts on the relative price of nontradable goods.     

Economically relevant human capital or multi-purpose consumption good? Book ownership in pre-modern Württemberg

We investigate books as an indicator of human capital using extraordinary, individual-level data on book ownership and signature literacy for a population of German women and men between 1610 and 1900. Although book ownership was very high from an early date, it was associated with signature literacy, gender, urbanization, and wealth in ways inconsistent with its having registered economically relevant human capital. The books people owned were overwhelmingly religious, as elsewhere in pre-modern Europe. People consumed books for multifarious purposes, many of them non-economic. In this pre-modern economy, books were not a good indicator of economically relevant human capital for the population at large, which creates doubt about their use for this purpose more generally.     

Enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and the Economic Development of Member States

The issues of enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and economic development are important not only to new European Union (EU) member states but impact all 25 countries. EU membership may help the new members to foster long-term economic growth through increased credibility, effective use of structural funds, a better framework for economic growth, and entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). The economic growth of all member states can be strengthened if the reforms related to the main goals of the Lisbon Agenda are completed. Action must be taken both at the member-state level and at the Community level. At the member-state level it is necessary to assure fiscal consolidation and deregulation. At the Community level the preservation of the Stability and Growth Pact, completion of the single market, especially in the service sector, and enforcement of limits on public aid are of the greatest importance.The 2006 Robert A. Mundell Distinguished Address presented at the Sixty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference. Berlin, Germany, 15–19 March 2006. In preparing this paper, I was assisted by Pawel Opala and Andrzej Rzońca. The usual caveats apply.