Subjectivity in credit allocation to micro-entrepreneurs: evidence from Brazil

This paper estimates the impact of loan officer subjectivity on microcredit granting by exploiting an exceptionally detailed database from a Brazilian microfinance institution. The loan officers collect field data, meet with applicants, and make recommendations to the credit committee, which has the final say on both loan approval and loan size (LS). The loan officer’s subjectivity is captured through gender bias. Our estimations indeed show subjective gender gap in LS. This gap is almost exclusively attributable to loan officers. We interpret this finding as evidence that, despite monitoring and wage incentivization, microcredit officers let their subjective preferences interfere with loan granting. We conclude by suggesting alternative means to curb subjectivity in credit allocation to micro-entrepreneurs.     

The challenges of supporting necessity entrepreneurs: Understanding loan officer exit in microfinance

Necessity entrepreneurship can serve as a pathway out of poverty for low-income individuals, with microfinance often providing important financial support. Yet the relational lending strategies common among microfinance institutions may influence loan officer turnover and, in turn, compromise entrepreneurs' access to credit. While there is some reason to suspect that relational lending with poor entrepreneurs will increase retention, we propose that serving the poor may make loan officers more likely to quit: loan officers in commercial microfinance institutions are unlikely to have strong commitments to poverty alleviation and may be taxed by the challenging fieldwork associated with lending in poor areas. Qualitative and quantitative data from a microfinance bank in Latin America support our expectations, showing that exit becomes more likely when loan officers' work involves more poor clients and that the effect is strongest when such work demands intensive fieldwork in low-income areas. Supplementary analyses of trends across the global microfinance industry demonstrate that poor clients have a stronger impact on exit in for-profits than non-profits, suggesting that prosocial motives among non-profit employees may have a buffering effect. Overall, our study reveals how providing services to necessity entrepreneurs can have negative, unexpected consequences for frontline employees.     

Accounting information quality and trust as determinants of credit granting to SMEs: the role of external audit

This study analyses whether loan officers’ perception of the accounting information quality (AIQ) and the trustworthiness of SMEs are associated with a better willingness to grant them credit. Empirical evidence is obtained from a survey of 471 bank loan officers in Spain, who are asked to answer in relation to audited and not-audited firms. Using a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach, the results obtained confirm that the loan officers’ willingness to facilitate SMEs’ access to credit is positively influenced by their general perception about the AIQ, but only if it is audited. In the case of not-audited firms, AIQ does not play a direct role in credit granting decision, but is relevant in trust formation. Besides, in the case of audited firms, only the “competence” dimension of trust is relevant, whereas in not-audited firms, both “competence” and “honesty” have an impact on credit granting. “Benevolence” does not have an influence in any case. The study has implications for SMEs, banks, policy makers and auditors.     

SBA default rates : Selection bias and credit deterioration

This study estimates the effects of changes in the money and capital markets on small business loan failure rates. It develops a lagged model of the relationship between term structure and risk premium variables and the loan failure rates of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Bank credit availability to small firms is shown to be the key factor in relating changes in economic conditions to changes in the SBA loan failure rates. As bank credit availability changes over an economic cycle, there is a movement of the least risky small firms into and out of the population from which the SBA grants and guarantees loans.     

Consumer Perceptions of the Consumer Credit Process

This research contrasts the perceptions of consumers with those of loan officers faced with similar credit application situations. Fundamental misperceptions of the credit granting process are encountered. Consumers clearly misperceive the credit standards of both banks and finance companies. Given large interest rate differentials between loan sources and the narrow shopping scope of most consumers for consumer credit, equitable allocation of credit dollars demands greater appreciation of the nature of the credit evaluation process by lender and borrower.     

Small Business Borrowing and the Owner–Manager Agency Costs: Evidence on Finnish Data

This study investigates the impact that managerial ownership has on loan availability and credit terms. We find that managerial ownership is common in a sample of small and medium‐sized Finnish firms. Our results suggest that an increase in managerial ownership decreases loan availability. The results on loan interest rates suggest that though an increase in managerial ownership initially increases interest rates, the effect is reversed at higher levels of ownership. Collateral requirements increase monotonically with managerial ownership. Overall, the results suggest that banks view that there are agency costs involved with managerial ownership even in small and medium‐sized firms and that this is taken into account when lending to these firms.     

Does Mood Affect the Efficiency of Credit Approval? Evidence from Online Peer-to-Peer Lending

Using a large dataset obtained from “Paipaidai,” an online peer-to-peer lending platform in China, we examine whether credit officers’ mood affects the efficiency of credit approval from a perspective of individual decision-making. Refering to studies in psychology and financial economics, we employ season, temperature and weather as mood proxies, and control the variables related to the quality of the loan to study credit approval behavior under different mood conditions. The results suggest that the efficiency of credit approval by individual credit officers is significantly correlated with their mood—a positive mood improves efficiency, while a negative mood reduces it. Specifically, loans examined under better mood conditions (e.g., during spring, comfortable temperatures, and sunny days) have a significantly higher probability of approval, but a lower probability of default if approved; and those examined under poorer mood conditions show a lower probability of approval and a higher probability of default if approved. This effect of mood is even stronger when a loan application is more complex, atypical, or unusual to evaluate. Moreover, investor sentiment, denoted by closed-end fund premiums, has the same effect on credit approval as well.     

Small business loan securitization and interstate risk sharing

Do credit risk transfers in general, and loan sales and securitizations in particular, by financial institutions enhance credit availability and financial stability? Or do they allow assets of poor credit quality to spread to unprotected investors, and thus create financial crises and destroy values? In this paper, we contribute to the continuing debate by examining the effect of small business loan securitizations on interstate personal income insurance. Using data of U.S. banks for the period 1995–2008, we find that small business loans securitizations contribute to the smoothening of state personal income volatility, and that this contribution is stronger in states where small businesses play a more important role in the local economy.     

中小企业社会资本、信用水平与融资能

社会资本是一个近年来被引入经济学研究领域的概念,本文以中小企业社会资本为对象,运用结构方程模型分析社会资本、信用水平与融资能力之间的作用机制并得出研究结论。     

Does Bank Consolidation Hurt the Small Business Borrower?

The recent wave of mergers in the commercial banking sector in the United States has led to tremendous industry consolidation. Some fear that such consolidation will leave the small business borrower with fewer opportunities to obtain bank credit. This study uses regression analysis to empirically determine if consolidation has caused larger banks to abandon relationship loans extended to small businesses over time. If so, this leaves small business borrowers with two distinctly different choices, a low interest rate loan from a large bank for those small business borrowers who qualify or a high interest rate loan from a small bank for those who do not. The results of this study support this theory, and find consolidation has raised small business loan rates at small banks and lowered rates at large banks, ceteris paribus.     

Lending Risk in MFIs: The Extreme Bounds of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Factors

Using 1,234 microfinance firms in 106 countries, this study investigates the determinants of default on the microcredit debt obligation of borrowers. Using the variant of extreme bounds analysis that systematically tests the fragility of coefficient estimates, we examine the importance of 42 variables in explaining default risk. At the micro level, the results from the modeling of model uncertainty reveal that regulation, cost per loan/cost per borrower, loan balance, borrower per loan officer, and the number of loan officers are robust factors. From the macroeconomic context, the time required to start a business and human capital are the determinants of default on debt obligations.     

P2P网络借贷市场信用风险识别

近年来,P2P网络借贷市场成为我国金融领域的重灾区,各类问题层出不穷,不仅损害了投资者利益,而且严重扰乱了我国的金融秩序,深入研究P2P网络借贷市场存在的问题具有重要现实意义。P2P网络借贷市场是信息不对称最为严重的市场之一,对借款人信用风险进行识别是P2P网络借贷的关键环节。根据信用风险定价理论,借贷利率应该充分反映违约风险,通过检验借贷利率与违约风险之间的关系可以验证借贷市场信用风险识别机制的有效性。基于“人人贷”平台公开的历史交易数据对P2P网络借贷市场的信用风险识别问题进行实证研究,结果表明:借贷利率能部分反映借款人的信用风险,但在相同的利率水平下,其他指标与违约风险也存在显著性关系,表明相同的利率未对应相同的信用风险,平台的信用风险识别机制部分有效。进一步研究表明,在缺乏成熟、易用的个人征信产品的情况下,无论借款人、P2P平台,还是投资者,对信用风险影响因素的判断与实际情况都存在一定的偏差,工作经验丰富的借款人付出了过高的借贷成本,平台在判断收入对信用风险的影响方面出现了偏差,投资者则忽视了借款人学历的价值。建议打破个人征信数据壁垒,丰富个人征信产品,保护居民信用数据安全,以保障借贷市场的持续发展。     

Small Business Borrowing and the Bifurcated Economy: Why Quantitative Easing Has Been Ineffective for Small Business

In the early years following the financial collapse, federal officials and others believed that banks were not making loans to creditworthy small firms, who have accounted for most of the job creation in the United States in recent decades. Acting on this belief, a number of programs were created to increase bank lending to small firms. Overall, however, the data collected since the 2007/8 financial crisis suggest that the explanation for slow loan growth in the small business sector is not a result of supply constraints but rather a result of anemic loan demand among small firms. Thus, recent programs intended to increase small business borrowing through easing credit supply were doomed to fail. The weak demand for credit among small firms is representative of the sluggish performance of the small business economy postrecession, a marked contrast to the robust performance of larger firms and a reflection of a bifurcated economy.     

On the Information Content of Bank Loan‐loss Disclosures: A Theory and Evidence from Japan

We develop a model in which banks use loan‐loss disclosures to signal private information about the credit quality of their loan portfolios. The cross‐sectional predictions generated by the model are shown to help to explain previously documented counterintuitive empirical regularities for US banks. We also take advantage of a recent Japanese regulatory policy shift, which first forbade the reporting of restructured loan balances and then forced full disclosure. This policy shift allows us to address a common difficulty in testing signalling theories, in that we are able to construct a timely proxy for the private information that we allege is being signalled. Consistent with our signalling model, we find that banks taking the largest write‐offs turn out later to be the strongest banks, with the fewest restructured loans.     

Coercion in the selling of credit life insurance

Credit life insurance, which repays some or all of a borrower's outstanding debt in the event of death, has been a controversial subject for many years. Critics assert that, despite regulations that limit tied sales, pressure on loan officers to generate fee income through cross selling creates an incentive for coercion of borrowers. Allegedly, some sales techniques leave the consumer with the false impression that the purchase of credit insurance was necessary to obtain the loan. This article measures the frequency with which creditor efforts to sell credit insurance transform the sales message from persuasive to coercive. A methodology is developed for measuring the impact of coercive selling pressure applied to borrowers at the point of sale. Data used to measure the effect of coercive pressure are taken from an extensive survey of borrowers conducted during 1993. Not only are public policy concerns about coercion in the selling of credit insurance addressed, but more generally the article offers a methodology to quantify the influence of the customer's point-of-sale experience on the decision to purchase any financial service. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

我国农村小额信用贷款问题和对策

当前,我国现阶段农村小额信用贷款存在的问题,主要体现在农村金融信用环境差,农村小额信用贷款的风险多元化,农民还贷能力低,农村小额信用贷款期限和额度不合理,银行的内控机制不完善等方面。政府应从政策上重视农村小额信用贷款;积极引导农民的贷款投资方向,降低坏账率;制定优惠政策;增加贷款的透明度,从而切实解决农村小额贷款存在的问题。推动农村经济的发展。     

西部农户小额信贷还款率影响因素分析

利用主成分分析方法和logistic回归模型,对西部地区小额信贷还款率影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明农户专业技能、信用等级、农户收入、贷款利率、贷款期限、贷款用途等因素与小额信贷还款率显著相关,农户年龄、受教育程度、贷款金额等因素对小额信贷还款率的影响不显著,不同因素在影响小额信贷还款率时具有重要次序性,农户专业技能、信用等级、农户收入、贷款利率、贷款期限、贷款用途、是否贴息、经营能力对小额信贷还款率的影响最为重要,其次为劳动力人数和耕地面积因素。     

Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking

The Korea government offers technology credit guarantee service to many technology-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs) suffering from funding problems. Many advanced application credit scoring models have been developed based on technology to reduce the high default rates of this service. However, a credit scoring model which can reflect changes in firms after a loan has been granted has not yet been developed. In the study reported here, we propose a behavioral credit scoring model that reflects the debt-paying ability of recipient firms, which is observed as a time series of financial ratios of firms via the relationship banking activities. We utilize this time series, as well as missing patterns of financial information, as additional predictors of loan defaults. We compare our proposed behavioral credit scoring models, fitted at different points of elapsed time, to the application credit scoring model. Finally, we suggest the best behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based SMEs. Our study can contribute to the reduction of the risk involved in credit funding for technology-based SMEs.     

The latent demand for bank debt: characterizing “discouraged borrowers”

Concerns that small firms encounter credit constraints are well entrenched in the literature, despite widespread empirical evidence that a relatively small proportion of small firms have their loan applications rejected. However, many firms may be discouraged from applying for fear of rejection. These businesses are the focus of this paper. Based on responses to a large-scale postal survey of UK small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we find that twice as many businesses were discouraged from applying for a bank loan than had their loan request denied. More particularly, we observe a number of distinguishing characteristics of “discouraged borrowers” (relative to applicants). These include: strategy, sector, prior entrepreneurial experience and banking relationships. The implications of our findings for policy and future research are briefly discussed.     

利率市场化进程中我国中小银行的经营策略选择

文章在分析中小银行与大银行实力对比的基础上,研究了利率市场化的影响,即放开存款利率上限与贷款利率下限,为中小银行提出了针对利率市场化改革的策略选择：充分利用价格手段积极竞争,在短期以量补价,拓展有自身特色的中间业务;在长期逐步转型,紧紧抓住中小企业贷款业务,与非正规金融逐利;提前建设利率风险管理体系,加强信用风险管理。