Small Business Credit Scoring and Credit Availability*

U.S. commercial banks are increasingly using small business credit‐scoring models to underwrite small business credits. The paper discusses this lending technology, evaluates the research findings on the effects of this technology on small business credit availability, and links these findings to a number of research and policy issues.     

Effect of the Number of Banking Relationships on Credit Availability: Evidence from Panel Data of Spanish Small Firms

This paper investigates how the choice between single or multiple banking relationships affects credit availability for a complete panel of small and medium-sized Spanish firms. The results seem to indicate the existence of rationing, since a substitution relation has been found between trade and bank credit. We also analyse the relationship between the level of indebtedness and the interest rate for each group of firms. The results show that those SMEs that work with fewer financial intermediaries obtain fewer funds for the same increase in the interest rate, which indicates that these companies have more financial restraints.     

Is the Small Firms Loan Guarantee Scheme Hazardous for Banks or Helpful to Small Business?

Loan guarantee schemes are an integral part of SME policy in both developed and developing countries. Yet little has been done to evaluate such programmes, particularly in terms of their ability to correct for capital market imperfections. This paper uses individual loan data from some 42,000 UK SFLGS backed debt contracts to empirically test the default specification outlined in the seminal credit rationing paper of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981). The results show that default (failure) does increase with the banks cost of capital, but not with the government premium. In addition, default appears to be determined by a whole host of other factors not typically considered in the credit rationing literature.     

我国农村小额信用贷款问题和对策

当前,我国现阶段农村小额信用贷款存在的问题,主要体现在农村金融信用环境差,农村小额信用贷款的风险多元化,农民还贷能力低,农村小额信用贷款期限和额度不合理,银行的内控机制不完善等方面。政府应从政策上重视农村小额信用贷款;积极引导农民的贷款投资方向,降低坏账率;制定优惠政策;增加贷款的透明度,从而切实解决农村小额贷款存在的问题。推动农村经济的发展。     

Credit Scoring and Loan Default

A metric of credit score performance is developed to study the usage and performance of credit scoring in the loan origination process. We examine the performance of origination FICO scores as measures of ex ante borrower creditworthiness using loan‐level data on ex post performance of subprime mortgages. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The data suggest a trend of increased emphasis on higher credit scores accompanying a trend of increased riskiness in other origination attributes. Over time, this increased emphasis on credit scoring coincided with deterioration in FICO performance largely because of the fact that higher credit score originations of later cohorts were more likely to have riskier attributes. However, controlling for other attributes on originations and changes in economic conditions, we find that, as measures of borrower ranking, FICO performance on subprime loans over the years remains fairly stable.     

The Turnover of Firms and Industry Growth

In a dynamic setting, every firm can be regarded as a “business experiment” with the objective to search and explore new business opportunities. It is suggested that the growth of an industry is enhanced by new-firm entry, since a positive correlation between the number of successes, i.e. fast-growing firms, and the number of business experiments is to be expected. Exit is necessary to sort out the firms that the market rejects. Hence, it is rather the entry and exit of firms that jointly should have a positive effect on growth, rather than the number of entries in isolation. This paper tests the hypothesis that a high turnover rate of firms has no, or a negative, effect on industry growth. The analysis is based on an extensive data set covering all Swedish IT firms that existed between 1994 and 1998. The turnover rate of firms is found to have a significantly positive effect on industry growth.     

The Determinants of Growth for Small and Medium Sized Firms. The Role of the Availability of External Finance

We present an empirical analysis of the determinants of growth for a sample of Italian small and medium sized firms. We show that, when investigating a sample which includes firms between 10 and 50 employees and a set of variables larger than those usually considered in the literature, growth – net of industry characteristics and ex ante market power – turns out to be significantly affected not only by size and age, but also by state subsidies, export capacity and credit rationing. By adopting a multivariate approach we also show that these findings are confirmed after controlling for heteroskedasticity, survivorship bias and serial correlation. Our results suggest that the hypothesis of independence of firm growth from the initial size and other factors (usually referred to as Gibrat's law in the literature) is not rejected for large firms, while it does not hold for small and medium sized firms under financial constraints in a "bank-oriented" financial system in which access to external finance is difficult.     

被购并企业高层经理去留问题探析

在企业购并中的一个值得关注的问题就是被购并企业高层管理人员的流动问题 ,它对于购并后企业的业绩有着重要的影响。高层管理人员的流失对于企业有何影响 ,在何种情况下适宜撤换 留任被购并企业的原高层经理 ,是值得讨论的课题。     

A Credit Risk Model for Consumer Loan Portfolios

ABSTRACT

We propose a credit risk model for consumer loan portfolios in Brazil. Consumer profiles and the risk classification of credit operations are used to segment the portfolios. Credit loss distributions for each segment are selected and used in a Monte Carlo simulation process to generate the loss distribution of the portfolios. The dependence among the credit losses in the different segments of the portfolios is modeled through an elliptical copula function. Statistical tests are done and show that the proposed model is adequate to represent credit loss distributions in consumer credit in Brazil.

RESUMEN.Proponemos un modelo para los créditos de riesgo de la cartera de préstamos al consumidor en Brasil. Los perfiles del consumidor y la clasificación del riesgo de las operaciones crediticias se utilizan para segmentar la cartera. La distribución de las pérdidas de los créditos de cada segmento se seleccionan e utilizan en un proceso de simulación Monte Carlo, para generar la distribución de las pérdidas de la cartera. La dependencia entre la pérdida del crédito en los diferentes segmentos de la cartera se modela utilizando una función de cópula elíptica. Las pruebas estadísticas se realizan y muestran que el modelo propuesto es apropiado para representar la distribución de la pérdida de crédito en el ramo de los créditos a los consumidores en Brasil.

RESUMO.Propomos um modelo de crédito de risco para portfólios de empréstimos ao consumidor, no Brasil. O perfil dos comsumidores e a classificação de risco das operações de crédito são usados para segmentar o portfólio. As distribuições de perda de crédito para cada segmento são selecionadas e usadas num processo de simulação Monte Carlo, para gerar a distribuição da perda do portfólio. A dependência entre a perda do crédito nos diferentes segmentos do portfólio é determinada por uma função de cópula elítica. Testes estatísticos foram realizados e demonstram que o modelo proposto é adequado, para representar as distribuições de perda de crédito no crédito ao consumidor, no Brasil.     

Availability of Credit to Family Businesses

The paper provides evidence that family own- ership is associated with greater availability of credit. This may be because family-owned businesses are seen by lenders as having fewer moral hazard problems than non-family-owned businesses. One reason for this could be that family owned businesses, by definition, have a controlling share in the equity of the firm. Other factors considered important by lenders may be the managerial characteristics, and the relatively conservative investment choices of family-owned businesses. In spite of these advantages, family ownership is not associated with a reduction in premiums on the loans. The research also highlights differences between outside equity holders and debt-holders in their decision to invest in a firm. Equity holders are known to prefer separation of ownership and control, and the possibility of takeovers, as this could increase the value of the firm. Debt-holders, on the other hand, prefer arrangements that ensure continuity and stability. Family Business, Small Business, Credit Rationing.     

建立信用体系与大力开发消费信贷

我国商业银行向消费者个人推广信贷消费的各项条件是在1999年2月开始逐步形成的,这些条件包括政府的政策支持、消费者个人信用调查服务、信用工具的发展和信用管理技术.我国市场上常见的信用工具包括商业银行提供融资的分期付款方式消费信贷、购房按揭贷款、信用卡支付等.本文主要讨论在开发消费信贷中建立信用体系的问题.     

Alliance Strategies of Small Firms

The paper concludes that small firms follow one of two alliance strategies. When the firms are small relative to their rivals and to their market, they tend to use alliances to gain economies of scale and scope; when they are large in relative terms, they avoid alliances. This behavior is consistent with alliance usage by large firms. The paper also analyzes the sources of profit for a small firm that uses a "constellation" of allies to compete in a scale-intensive industry. Its profits depend on a combination of the group-based advantages generated by the constellation, and the share of these profits that the firm can appropriate from the group. Small firms face particular hazards in this regard when their bargaining power within their constellation is weak. The paper illustrates these arguments with data froma small survey, with case studies from the computer industry, and with a simple mathematical model.     

Trade Credit in Small and Medium Size Firms: An Application of the System Estimator With Panel Data

Financing through suppliers is a subject that has been little studied in the economic literature in general and in corporate finance in particular. Although several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the different reasons behind this phenomenon, trade credit is not based on a general theory. This study provides empirical evidence about factors determining the use of trade credit for a sample of small and medium size firms, which are potentially the firms that would follow this financing route, since they are more rationed in credit markets. Using a panel of Canary-Island firms from 1990 to 1996, and by means of specifications with the system estimator, results reveal that trade credit leads to a reduction in asymmetric information between firms and their financial backers, as well as in transaction costs. Furthermore, we confirm the theory that companies with easier access to institutional finance act as a credit channel for those with greater difficulties to obtain external funds.     

Small Firms as International Players

In this paper, using aggregate data from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis, the author explores the strategies small U.S.-based foreign investing firms follow in their international activities. The aggregate study supports the findings of an earlier study of a few small firms with international activities. These firms have a lower-than-expected tendency to form minority-owned affiliates abroad. An analysis of the industries in which these small foreign investing firms operate supports the notion that these firms follow specific strategies uncovered in the small-scale study. Finally, the paper ties the findings to alliance strategies of small firms.     

On Lending to Small Firms

Lending to small firms is difficult because of the problems of information asymmetry. Innovative ways to address these problems have the potential to increase credit availability to these firms. The papers in this section provide a discussion of two different innovations in small business financing: increased usage of credit scoring technology and the introduction of microfinance lending institutions. Though these two approaches make use of different technologies, they provide a valuable picture of how lending to small firms is evolving over time.     

上市公司资信监控的博弈分析

采用博弈论的方法对上市公司资信监控进行了分析。根据模型的不同假设前提，构造了单阶段和多阶段的博弈模型，得出博弈双方的均衡战略，以及某些关键因素(如评估机构对上市公司的惩罚系数及监督成本，上市公司的资信欺骗额等)对博弈双方的影响，提出了减少上市公司资信欺骗发生的建议。     

Small Firms and Economic Transformation in Bulgaria

The pace of transition to a market economy has been slower in Bulgaria than in some other east European countries in the 1990s. Output levels in the state owned sector, which has not yet been subject to mass privatisation, have fallen sharply and there has been a dramatic increase in unemployment. There has however also been a rapid growth in the number of small firms, and the ability of this sector to generate new jobs will be an important component of labour market dynamics in the future. Some of the main characteristics of this emergent sector are identified on the basis of a sample survey of nearly 400 small Bulgarian firms, covering competitiveness, entrepreneurship, innovation, networking, labour relations and business performance of the small firms. Key features of a subset of small firms with an orientation towards employment growth are identified.