金融发展对江苏省工业制成品比较优势和国际贸易结构的影响

在相关研究的基础上,探讨了金融发展与工业制成品比较优势与贸易结构的内在关系。采用VAR模型与Johanson协整检验,脉冲响应、方差分解,以江苏省数据为例,实证检验了江苏省金融发展的三种不同指标与工业制成品比较优势及江苏省贸易结构的关系,检验结果表明金融发展与工业制成品比较优势存在协整关系;在短期内,金融发展对贸易结构的优化贡献度较小,金融中介的投资储蓄转化率对工业制成品比较优势的影响最大,并在此基础上,根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议。     

上合组织自贸区经济效应的前瞻性研究--基于GTAP模型的模拟

文章在分析中国同上海合作组织成员国贸易现状的基础上,运用GTAP模型实证研究了建立上合组织自贸区可能带来的经济影响。研究发现建立自贸区虽然在短期内可能存在一定的困难和冲突,但是符合各成员国的长远利益。具体结论如下:从短期来看,大部分成员国贸易放大效应较为明显;各成员国会扩大对比较优势产品的出口,增加对比较劣势产品的进口;各成员国贸易条件和福利水平变化不一,一些小国和落后国家贸易条件恶化,福利水平下降。从长期来看,自贸区的建立能有效拉动各成员国经济增长;随着区域内分工纵深发展,各国产业结构均出现调整。总体来说,完全自由贸易情形下的经济效应要大于设置关税减让例外情形。     

How Would David Ricardo Have Taught the Principle of Comparative Advantage?

If David Ricardo had lived beyond the age of 51, how might he have delivered a lecture on comparative advantage? I argue that Ricardo infers the direction of comparative advantage and the size of the gains from trade by interpreting the four numbers in his Principles of Political Economy and Taxation for cloth and wine traded between England and Portugal as amounts of labor embodied in the quantities actually traded. He illustrates diagrammatically the gains from trade as the overall labor that England would save if it were to liberalize wheat imports by repealing the Corn Laws. Postulating a concave production function for wheat, Ricardo also depicts the concomitant rise in the profit rate, describing it as an equally important contemporary gain from trade for England. His interpretation differs radically from the textbook versions of the “Ricardian trade model,” and suggests a more authentic way of presenting the principle of comparative advantage.     

Determinants of manufactured export performance in low-income Africa: Kenya and Tanzania

This paper applies empirical trade theory to explaining the revealed comparative advantage in manufactured exports of Kenya and Tanzania. Exports are treated as a whole and also distinguished by destination (developed countries, developing countries and Africa). The undeveloped industrial and trade structures of these countries lead to low explanatory power of the equations, but the results for individual variables are generally expected and of interest.     

中日贸易的比较优势与互补性分析

中日双边贸易关系是中日关系的重要组成部分。通过运用贸易结合度指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数,对1996年至2005年中日双边贸易的现状和发展趋势、比较优势和贸易互补性进行测算,分析结果表明中国与日本志比较优势上存在较明显差异,中日两国之间的贸易无论在出口上还是在进口上均具有互补性,仍以跨行业贸易为主要特征。加强中日经贸关系有利于两国更好地发挥现有的比较优势,促进两国经济的发展。     

出口产品升级和市场多元化能够缓解我国贸易摩擦吗?

长期以来,中国以低附加值的劳动密集型产品大量出口且出口市场高度集中,已被理论和实践部门认为是促成中国成为全球贸易摩擦最大受害国的主要原因。但是本文利用泊松回归模型的计量结果揭示:中国出口产品升级和出口市场多元化不仅未能有效缓解中国遭遇的贸易摩擦,反而使之加剧;FDI的大量利用和我国深度融入国际产品内分工体系对我国遭遇贸易摩擦具有显著促成作用。据此,本文认为不能将中国出口产品遭遇的贸易摩擦简单归咎于附加值过低和市场集中度过高。我们应从国际分工演进和中国比较优势角度出发,以正常的心态看待中国面临的贸易摩擦,通过加强政府间沟通、民间游说、国际舆论宣传等措施加以缓解,以免造成政策偏差,妨碍我国开放型经济发展。     

泰国国际旅游服务贸易对泰国经济的影响分析

国际旅游是国际服务贸易的重要组成部分。它涉及行业众多，且在国家之间具有财富转移性。图文分析了泰国近十年来的国际旅游贸易现状，并采用显示性比较优势指数分析了泰国国际旅游服务的竞争力。之后，对其近年来经济发展与国际旅游服务贸易收入之间的关系进行了实证分析。得出结论发现，泰国的国际旅游服务贸易能够提升资本投入，提供就业岗位，并最终提高泰国经济发展水平。     

Changing Comparative Advantage,Real Exchange Rate Impact and Sino–Japanese Trade Fluctuations

China, as an important source country in the global value chain, especially in the East Asian production networks, has exerted significant influence on Sino–Japanese trade fluctuations. This paper explores the real factors that lead to the fluctuations in Sino–Japanese trade. Using the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique and OECD–WTO Statistics on Trade in Value Added from 1995 to 2011, the impact of the changing comparative advantage between the two countries is also examined. The empirical results indicate that determinants of the fluctuations in Sino–Japapese trade include changing comparative advantages, the volatility of the real exchange rate and quite a few external shocks. Some policy suggestions are put forward in regards to the stability of trade between the two countries.     

俄乌冲突背景下中俄双边贸易变化及应对研究

利用 UN Comtrade 贸易统计数据运用国际贸易指数相关分析法，分析了中俄双边贸易发展现状、结构特征、贸易互补性（TCI）和贸易比较优势（RTA），并结合数据分析结果和当前俄乌冲突的背景，分析了欧俄双边贸易的变化对中俄贸易的影响。研究表明：中俄贸易呈现“产业间”优势互补特征；中国对俄罗斯具有出口比较优势的商品正逐渐由初加工向深加工转变；中俄两国在“皮革制品”、“鞋类”等商品具有较好的贸易基础和潜力，“机电类产品”的贸易前景广阔。     

基于动态比较优势的山东省加工贸易最优产业布局设计

文章探讨比较优势的动态转移与加工贸易产业结构升级之间的影响关系,分析山东省加工贸易相关要素比较优势的变迁。认为应该根据比较优势调整山东省加工贸易产业布局。建议将山东省加工贸易基地分为高端制造基地、技术研发基地、普通制造基地、劳动密集型产业基地、物流金融基地、特色产业基地等层次,并采取适当的引导性政策,从而促进山东省加工贸易产业布局的优化,更好的发挥比较优势,实现劳动密集型与技术密集型加工贸易的共同发展。     

中印双边贸易的互补性及比较优势

运用显性比较优势指数、贸易强度指数、贸易互补性指数,对中国和印度两国的商品贸易结构进行比较。实证分析表明,中印之间存在着贸易互补性,但不同行业有很大差异;中印之间不存在非常显著的贸易联系,两国贸易存在较大的空间。     

Bilateral trade between China and Canada: trends,patterns, and comparisons

Using data from the United Nations Comtrade database Standard International Trade Classification Revision III, this study examined major trends of and changes in the bilateral trade between Canada and China. It investigated issues related to trade intensities, intra‐industry trade, comparative advantages, and trade complementarity in the two countries. The results showed that there has been a significant increase in bilateral trade between the two countries over the past decade or so. However, the estimated trade intensity indices suggest that Canada and China are trading less than they should. On the other hand, analysis using revealed comparative advantage indices suggests that there is no overlap in comparative advantage between two countries. Further, the trade complementarity indices show that Canada's export structure is compatible with China's import structure and at the same time, China's export structure is also compatible with Canada's import structure. Thus, there is a high potential to increase bilateral trade between Canada and China.     

RCA indices,multinational production and the Ricardian trade model

The practice of using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Indices to determine the flow of goods trade among countries is well established. But an important issue that demands attention is whether the RCA indices reflect the essentials of comparative advantage theory. Deb and Basu Foreign Trade Rev 46(3):3–28, (2011) examined the consistency of alternative RCA indices with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory of comparative advantage, leaving scope for re-examination of the indices in the context of the Ricardian comparative advantage theory, which insists on relative factor productivity differences among countries contrary to Heckscher-Ohlin’s relative factor endowment differences. The other issue which has been overlooked in much of the existing literature is the importance of value-added trade. With the growing importance of global production chains, RCA indices based on gross export values may not portray an accurate picture of the underlying comparative advantage of countries. In this context, adjusting the RCA indices to incorporate domestic value-added in exports seems to be quite relevant. This paper explores the consistency of RCA indices based on domestic value-added in exports with the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage using a panel data approach. A brief review on the structures of alternative RCA indices is also provided. The Log-of-Balassa index is found to be the best performer in this empirical examination, although the deficiencies of the index for cross-country or cross-commodity comparison must be acknowledged. The index of Yu et al. Ann Reg Sci 43(1):267–282, (2009) does possess the latter feature but in our study its performance is quite poor and hence its consistency with the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage is questionable.     

THE GENERATIVE POWER OF AIR FREIGHT IN THE TRADE OPENNESS – ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

Foreign trade matters considerably more than ever in today's integrated economies, and the wealth of benefits afforded by air transport is one of the cornerstones of international trade. Therefore, to shed light on the precise role of air cargo, seen as an important motor of growth, this paper provides an empirical model to examine the relationships among trade openness, air freight volume and GDP per capita using panel cointegration techniques for a sample of Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) countries during the 1970‐2002 period. The analysis substantiates that there are cointegrated relationships among the three variables and that they are bound together in a long‐run equilibrium. Furthermore, evidence from fully modified Ordinary Least Squares panel estimations also indicates that positive trade and air freight shocks contribute to real GDP per capita. In addition, improvements in air cargo services are accompanied by an increase in trade openness in ECA countries and vice versa. These results underscore the important role of air freight and demonstrate that it should not have been overlooked in earlier studies. Finally, the empirical findings have important policy implications for our sample countries.     

各国参与国际气候合作影响因素的实证分析

通过构建一个各国减排意愿和行动的计量模型,作者分析了一国参与国际气候合作的影响因素,认为环境脆弱性变量对各国减排意愿和行动起的作用不是很显著,这表明这一变量目前还不是大多数国家参与国际气候合作的决定性因素。而减排成本是影响各国减排意愿和行动的决定性因素,减排成本越高,减排承诺和行动水平越低。虽然民主变量对各国减排承诺影响显著,但对实际减排行动影响并不是很显著,这表明发达国家在气候变化问题上存在"言行不一"现象,也表明"民主-环境"这一假说并不适用于气候变化问题。另外,一国排放是否越过峰值对一国参与国际气候合作有决定性影响,而一国低碳发展水平和低碳贸易比较优势对参与国际气候合作的影响并不显著。作者认为,目前影响各国参与国际气候合作的主要影响因素仍然是经济因素,减排成本对各国减排意愿和行动具有决定性意义。相比之下,环境脆弱性、国内民主制度都是次要影响因素。目前只有少数发达国家具备低碳经济和贸易比较优势,因此低碳比较优势还不是一个具有普遍性的解释变量。     

Income Convergence in African Countries: Evidence from a Stationary Test With Multiple Structural Breaks

This paper examines the catching‐up (stochastic convergence in real per capita income) hypothesis for 52 African countries with respect to the USA. over the 1969‐2011 period, using a highly flexible stationarity test. The empirical results show (i) that all African countries experienced at least one break, switching between catching‐up and divergence paths during the sample period; (ii) that structural breaks tend to coincide with political instability, trade liberalisation policies and terms of trade shocks; (iii) that among the 52 African countries studied, only five lie on the catching‐up path, while the remaining 47 diverge from the USA. Our results show that the economic performance of African countries fall far behind those of the USA and that the economic growth tragedy of Africa continues.     

Determinants of bilateral trade: evidence from ASEAN+3

In this research, we investigate the determinants of international trade, employing a dataset of bilateral trade and economics characteristics in the ASEAN+3 countries. We include a large number of independent variables that potentially drive international trade. We also use various standard gravity model variables to maintain consistency with the current literature. The results provide some important insights into the determinants of bilateral trade and offer policy implications regarding the promotion of international trade for governments worldwide. In particular, we find that output asymmetry between countries positively explains bilateral trade. Moreover, the findings suggest that making use of comparative advantage by differentiating the export product structure is important in promoting international trade. We do not find a consistent impact from bilateral exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade. This result points to the importance of providing opportunities for the hedging of currency uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on trade. The results for other standard gravity model variables are consistent with the results of previous theoretical and empirical research.     

Comparative Advantage,Trade, and Transboundary Pollution

It is common for studies on trade and environment issues to model trade patterns as driven by environmental considerations. Under conditions of trade liberalization, these studies predict the rise of pollution havens and an increase in global pollution. The extant empirical literature, however, gives only mixed support at best for the notion that trade patterns are influenced by environmental issues. We develop a simple model to investigate whether trade based on traditional comparative advantage may lead to increased global pollution. We find that trade may lead to increased global pollution if both trading nations exhibit increasing marginal disutilities of pollution.     

中国外贸比较优势和竞争优势的关系分析

比较优势理论是自由贸易理论的基石,认为各个国家按照比较优势的原则参加国际分工和贸易并可以从中获益。但比较优势并不总是能转化为竞争优势。对中国外贸数据的分析也证明了这一点。只有将这种比较优势转化为竞争优势,经济主体才能获得较多的比较利益。影响比较优势转化为竞争优势的关键因素主要是比较优势、交易效率和制度安排。