Extending working hours: why not work 42 h rather than 38?—a CGE analysis for Germany

Faced with a record level of unemployment, the present debate in Germany is to extend the weekly hours of work. In this paper the employment effects of an economy-wide increase in weekly hours are quantified on the basis of a computable general equilibrium model for different specifications of the wage setting rule and the use of additional policy-induced public income. The simulation results back the argument of the opponents of longer working time that not more jobs will be created. However, when the higher tax revenues from GDP growth are used to reduce social security contributions, then the claim of the proponents that more jobs will be created can be supported.     

Choice sets for spatial discrete choice models in data rich environments

Failure to properly specify an agent's choice set in discrete choice models will generate biased parameter estimates resulting in inaccurate behavioral predictions as well as biased estimates of policy relevant metrics. We propose a method of constructing choice sets by sampling from specific points in space to model agent behavior when choice alternatives are unknown to the researcher, potentially infinite, and differ according to spatial and temporal factors. Using Monte Carlo analysis we compare the performance of this point-based sampling method to the commonly used approach of spatially aggregating choice alternatives. We then apply these alternative approaches to modelling location choice in the Pacific groundfish trawl fishery which has a complex spatial choice structure. Both the Monte Carlo and application results provide considerable support for the efficacy of the point-based approaches.     

A discrete choice experiment to determine patient preferences for injection devices in multiple sclerosis

Abstract

Objective:

Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) is usually managed with disease modifying drugs (DMDs), most commonly administered via self-injection. The aim of this study was to estimate the influence that different treatment-related attributes have for MS patients on their choice of MS DMD device. By establishing the relative importance of these characteristics for patients it should be possible to better understand the acceptability of a given device and to optimize the development of future devices.

Methods:

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey was developed on the basis of a review of published literature. Attributes identified for inclusion in the survey were: ease of use; comfort of use; presence of additional functions, needle visibility; practicality and efficacy. Choice sets were presented as pairs of hypothetical treatments based upon a fractional factorial design. One-hundred device-using MS patients completed the survey online. Analysis was conducted using a mixed-logit approach.

Results:

Analysis of the DCE data revealed that all attributes significantly predicted treatment choice. Efficacy exhibited the largest effect on treatment selection and this provided context for understanding the magnitude of impact for the other attributes. Reducing the discomfort associated with device use and eliminating the necessity for assembly or drug reconstitution were highly valued. The addition of reminder and time-stamping functions, improved needlestick injury prevention, and reduction in device size were secondary concerns but still deemed desirable.

Conclusion:

Efficacy is of primary importance to MS patients, but characteristics of drug delivery devices can play an important role in treatment decision-making. Not all device characteristics could be included, and results are based upon 100 participants only. Findings suggest there is significant potential value in developing self-injection devices that are not only efficacious but also convenient and comfortable to use. Reducing barriers to adherence could potentially translate into improved treatment outcomes for patients with MS.     

A rank-dependent utility approach to model intra- and inter-individual heterogeneity in risky choice behaviours

ABSTRACT

Using a stated preferences survey, the objective of this paper is to investigate the intra- and inter-individual heterogeneity of mode choice, when travel time is subject to variability. By‘inter-individual heterogeneity’ is meant that people are different in terms of attitude to risk and have different utility functions. By ‘intra-individual heterogeneity’ is meant that the behaviour may be different even when performed by the same individual when faced with a different mode of transport. Based on Rank-Dependent Utility Theory, the paper shows that the occurrence of delays associated with train trips is overestimated whereas they are underestimated for car trips. A latent-class logit model offers a somewhat different perspective: if, overall, car users are more likely to perceive possible delays for train trips than for car trips, train users tend to consider the objective occurrence of delays as they are presented in the survey and adopt a risk neutral choice behaviour.     

A discrete choice experiment to determine UK patient preference for attributes of disease modifying treatments in Multiple Sclerosis

Aims: The recent licensing of Disease Modifying Treatments (DMTs) for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has increased available treatment options. The aim of this study was to explore MS patients’ preference for the different attributes of DMTs in the UK.

Materials and methods: Attributes (treatment characteristics) for inclusion in the discrete choice experiment (DCE) were determined through published literature and interviews with 12 people with MS. Seven attributes were selected. Participants were presented with three hypothetical treatment options sampled from included attributes and asked for their most/least preferred options. The influence of patient characteristics and demographics on patient preference was also investigated.

Results: The DCE was completed by 350 people with MS (81% female, mean age?=?39). Results showed that method of taking medication was the strongest determinant of preference (27%; relative importance out of 100%), followed by relapse free rate (21%) and symptom progression (14%). Risk of fatigue (8%) and type of monitoring (6%) were the weakest determinants of preference. Once-daily oral treatment was preferred over all other methods of administration. Participant characteristics did not influence data on strength of preference.

Limitations: This study assumed adequate participant understanding of the discrete choice experiment task, and recruitment targeted those with access to the internet.

Conclusions: These results, derived from people with MS in the UK, should be used to inform individual discussions with patients about DMT choices.     

Welfare and growth impacts of innovation policies in a small, open economy; an applied general equilibrium analysis

We explore how innovation incentives in a small, open economy should be designed in order to achieve the highest welfare and growth. The computable general equilibrium model we develop for the purpose allows for research and development (R&D)-driven endogenous technological change embodied in varieties of capital. We study policy alternatives targeted towards R&D, capital varieties formation, and domestic investments in capital varieties. Subsidising domestic investments, thereby excluding stimuli to world market deliveries, generates less R&D, capital formation, economic growth, and welfare than do the other alternatives, reflecting that the domestic market for capital varieties is limited. In spite of breeding stronger economic growth, a higher number of patents, and a higher share of R&D in total production, direct R&D support generates slightly less welfare than subsidising formation of capital varieties. The costs in terms of welfare relates to a lower production within each variety firm, which in presence of mark-up pricing results in efficiency losses.     

The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework

The paper introduces a new way of linking microsimulation models with dynamic general equilibrium frameworks to obtain an evaluation of the impact of detailed tax and benefit measures on the aggregate economy. In the approach presented in this paper, income heterogeneity interacts with the macro-economy via aggregated individual labour supply decisions which influence, and are influenced by, the dynamic evolution of the real wage rate. The method involves a reduced-form representation of the information flow between the macroeconomic and microeconomic blocks. The practical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by evaluating actual and hypothetical tax reforms that involve abandoning the flat tax system in Slovakia. A hypothetical move to a highly progressive tax structure is shown to generate some employment gains but is associated with a drop in aggregate income and tax revenue.     

A modified logit model for time series with an application to the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms in Australia

The modified logit model (Amemiya and Nold, 1975) is generalised to the case where the error term is autocorrelated. The asymptotic distribution (as n →∞ and T →∞) of a feasible GLS estimator of β is derived. Tests of linear restrictions on β and the significance of ρ are presented. The results of the applied work suggest that the factors which explain the pricing behaviour of manufacturing firms, as reported in the tendency survey conducted by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Westpac Banking Corporation, include historical inflation rates of up to 7 quarters and capacity utilisation. First version received: March 2001/Final version received: July 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  The first draft of this paper was written while the author was on study leave at the Department of Econometrics, University of Sydney, Australia.