International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan

This study examines the economic relationship and interdependence between Korea and Japan. Using macroeconomic data, an event chronology, and trade flows, I examine the question, are business cycles transmitted from Japan to Korea, and/or from Korea to Japan? And, how has that transmission changed over time? The study uses structured vector autoregressions (SVARs) to analyze monthly data 1960.01–2002.01 on industrial production, prices, interest rates, money supplies, and exchange rates. Japanese business cycles are found to have a moderate effect upon business cycle fluctuations in Korea, and that influence seems to be increasing over time. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (1) (2004) 57–83.     

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN

This study investigates the international transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, and between the ASEAN nations and their major trading partners, the United States, Australia, Japan, and the European Union. The research uses trade flows to show the pattern of economic interdependence, and principal components analysis, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis to explore the possibility of a unique ASEAN business cycle. Binational VARs are used to examine the relative impacts of each country upon the others. Spectral analysis is used to check for the possibility of “mode-locking” between the countries that may serve to bring about some synchronization. Interestingly, there is evidence of the existence of a specific ASEAN regional business cycle. However, the VARs give only weak evidence of transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN economies and between the ASEAN economies and their major trading partners. The apparent weakness of the transmission is explained by the fact that commodity price fluctuations, wars, and major political disturbances, due to the process of nation-building, have interrupted the natural generation of business cycles, dominated the interdependence effects between nations, and hindered the measurement of international business cycle transmission. J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1999, 13(3), pp. 230–253. Department of Economics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia 23529 Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F41, F47, E32.     

INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A TIME‐SERIES VIEW ACROSS SECTORS USING LONG‐RANGE DEPENDENCE

In this paper I examine the time‐series evolution of the log consumer price index series in South Africa, disaggregating the data by sectors. I examine the time period 1990m1‐2008m12, i.e. focusing on the post‐apartheid period. I used methodologies based on fractional integration using parametric and semiparametric techniques. The results indicate that the (total) inflation rate in South Africa is long memory, with an order of integration in the range (0, 0.5). The same happens with most of the data disaggregated by sectors with values of d above 1 in the log prices. Evidence of I(0) inflation is obtained in some cases for “fruits and nuts”, “vegetables” and “sugar”, and evidence of mean reversion in the log prices is only obtained in the case of “fish and other seafood”.     

Prices and industrial transformation

Abstract

One of the contradictions of neo-classical economic theory concerns its view of relative prices. On the one hand it is relative prices that determine the market's equilibrium position and decide what transactions will take place. On the other hand, the pattern of relative prices, or expressed differently the price structure, has been regarded as more or less immutable. Variations in relative prices have been considered short-term phenomena, after which, in time, an adaptation has taken place which has restored the initial situation. The same line of thought was also held by Wesley Mitchell, who in the dispersion of relative prices found a reflection of business cycles, but he maintained that the price system is “yet stable in the essential balance of its interrelations”.¹ F.C. Mills cited Mitchell as his authority in his comprehensive work The Behavior of Prices, and although he felt compelled to raise objections to the inference that relative prices varied rhythmically with the business cycle, he still considered that there was a limit to change in relative prices, i.e. the price structure had a fundamental stability.²     

A chronology of cycles in real economic activity for Norway, 1867–1914

Abstract

Business cycles, defined as “recurrent sequences of persistent and pervasive expansions and contractions in economic activities”¹, have been a distinctive feature of the experience of capitalist countries as far back as our historical records on aggregate economic activity go. Indeed, Schumpeter maintained that “[a]nalyzing business cycles means neither more nor less than analyzing the economic process of the capitalist era … Cycles are not, like tonsils, separable things that might be treated by themselves, but are, like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them”.²     

An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function

This study uses the cointegration concept to analyze the long-run relationship of China's aggregate import demand function for the period 1970–1999. The conventional specification for the import demand function reveals that the volume of imports demanded responds to domestic activity and relative prices. This study considers four definitions of domestic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), GDP minus exports [IMF Staff Pap. 45 (1998) 236], “national cash flow” [Econ. Lett. 74 (2002) 265], and final expenditure components [Appl. Econ. 21 (1989) 957]. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between these measures of domestic activity and China's import demand. Overall, domestic activity and relative prices are inelastic in the long run. This study also highlights some policy implications.     

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union

This study investigates the economic interdependence between Turkey and the European Union (EU). The main questions addressed are (i) Do Turkish and European business cycles move together? and (ii) Are European business cycles transmitted to Turkey? This investigation is important as Turkey seeks to become a full member of the EU. Trade flows, graphs, correlations, and a principal-components analysis are used to identify possible macroeconomic interdependence and transmissions. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated to determine the effects of European economic fluctuations on the Turkish economy. The SVAR includes GDP, consumer prices, money supplies, interest rates, and the exchange rate for Turkey and Germany. The investigation finds that Turkey's economy is only modestly influenced by European business cycles and is largely determined by domestic economic and political developments and various regional conflicts. The findings of this study have implications for Turkey's increasing economic integration into the EU.     

Economic Value of Country Image: Evidence from International Trade and Implications for China

This paper examines the economic value of country image from the perspective of export prices through matching the CEPII export price data with the British Broadcasting Company country image data from 2006 to 2013. The estimation results show that positive country image has an “elevating” effect and negative country image has a “depressing” effect on export prices. The results also indicate that the lower the level of economic development of an export or import country, the stronger the export price effect of country image. As distances between export countries and trading partners increase, the elevating effect of positive country image on export prices becomes weaker. However, the depressing effect of negative country image does not become weaker over greater distances. We find that export prices are depressed by negative country image to a greater degree for China than for other countries. Therefore, it is necessary for China to prevent the occurrence of incidents detrimental to country image.     

Effects of a Management–Labor Context and Team Play on Ultimatum Game Outcomes

Laboratory experiments are usually done on individuals, but many business decisions involve groups. Therefore, we ran ultimatum games using individuals and two‐person teams. We primed business roles with the labels “labor” and “management,” or we used the generic labels of “proposer” and “responder.” With business labels, individuals offered lower shares at higher stakes with no significant differences in acceptance rates. For teams, business labels had no significant effect on shares offered, with significantly lower acceptance rates at higher stakes. Teams offered less than individuals, along with higher acceptance rates with generic labels, compared to no significant differences with business labels.     

Judging the probability of a contingent loss: An empirical study*

Abstract. This paper reports the results of research in which experienced auditors interpreted the criteria of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 5 (SFAS 5): Accounting for Contingencies. The research focuses on two issues: (1) the nature and degree of consensus in the auditors' interpretations, and (2) the extent to which these interpretations depend upon the type of contingent loss. Forty-five experienced auditors (managers, principals, and partners) from “Big 8” CPA firms responded to a research instrument that elicited their interpretation of SFAS 5 probability criteria. Our analysis focuses upon the thresholds between the “remote” and “reasonably possible” criteria and between the “reasonably possible” and “probable” criteria. Our results indicate: (1) threshold means of 0.16 and 0.68, respectively; (2) more auditor consensus for the first threshold than for the second; (3) the first threshold was significantly lower than indicated by previous research; and (4) the thresholds were generally not dependent upon the type of contingent loss.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

Commodity problem: What next?

Export commodity prices of developing countries are now at their lowest point since 1980–1981. International action to stem the decline in prices or provide sufficient compensatory finance has been limited, and no overall plan is under way to improve the situation. Under these circumstances the developing countries must fend for themselves, through expansion of their mutual trade with a minimum use of scarce convertible foreign exchange, and through improvement of their bargaining position in the world market, where feasible, through coordinated selling of their products. These actions call for: (1) an expansion of South-South compensable trade (“counter-trade”) and its better organization in order to reduce the excessive discounts and marketing margins which now prevail; (2) centralized selling in the world market at better prices of commodities for which the demand is price-inelastic (tropical beverages and to some degree metals); and (3) expansion of volume of sales at competitive prices of products which face substitution of synthetics or goods produced in developed countries, provided such expansion is profitable.This paper discusses these alternatives and the potential problems which may continue to interfere with progress. The author concludes that the need for international cooperative action will grow pari passu with the need to cooperate in money and finance, which are in as much trouble as commodities and international trade.     

The situation in the Russian economy

This article, written for a Project LINK international conference, looks at the medium-term growth trends of the Russian economy and analyzes the stability potential and crisis points of the prevailing economy reproduction model.The forecasting part examines measures used in three growth scenarios: “economic activism of the state,” “support of business” (both subject to a lasting favourable foreign economic situation), and “adaptive” (for the case of a fall in oil prices). The authors come to the conclusion that in the current situation, a greater growth potential is associated with the scenario of “economic activism of the state,” which envisions, in particular, investment in projects lessening infrastructural constraints on growth.     

FAIR VALUE PRICING OF AGRICULTURAL FUTURES IN SOUTH AFRICA

In the South African agricultural (specifically grain) markets an interesting phenomenon exists: where futures and options on grain products exist (i.e. white maize, yellow maize, soy beans, wheat, and sunflower seeds) price discovery in the spot (also known as “cash”) markets is poor, whereas price discovery in the futures markets is considered respectable. Consequently, whenever a spot deal is undertaken, this price is “derived” from the relevant futures market. This severely anomalous phenomenon will be evident: futures are generally labeled “derivatives” because their prices are “derived” from their spot markets, whereas here we have a situation where spot prices are derived from their futures price (specifically the price of the near – as opposed to far – future). Because of this unusual phenomenon the mathematics involved is not readily available in the literature; this article is an attempt to briefly outline the phenomenon and to present the relevant mathematics.     

The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of the Great Depression

In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and related policies associated to the gold standard affected commodity prices, bond prices, and the stock market. My results show that the Conference itself did not impact commodity prices or the stock market. However, it had a small effect on bond prices. I do find that the events associated with the abandonment of the gold standard impacted prices in a significant way, even before the actual monetary and currency channels were at work. These results are consistent with the “change in regime” hypothesis of Sargent (1983).     

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

The study examines Nigeria's business cycles between October 1998 and October 2017 and ascertains the importance of general elections cycles in engendering cyclical fluctuations in different measures of business cycles. A framework based on political business cycles theory was estimated with a dynamic Markov‐switching regression technique. The study finds that election cycles are adequate in predicting cycles in food prices, non‐farm prices, exports, and imports in Nigeria while a significant effect of election cycles on the stock market, general price level, and exchange rate could not be established. The study concludes that cycles in food, non‐farm prices, imports, and exports can be predicted by future general elections while re‐election seeking behaviour of politicians lacks the power to influence stock market performance and exchange rate in Nigeria. Hence, artificial business cycles that result primarily from politicians manipulating certain fiscal tools targeted at stimulating the economy only to increase the re‐election chances could be minimized if monetary and fiscal institutions are strong, effective, and truly independent. This will ensure that policies are not manipulated between elections by politicians but are well targeted at achieving a set of long‐term developmental goals.     

Measuring Chinese business cycles with dynamic factor models

The Stock–Watson method and the dynamic Markov switching factor (DMSF) model are employed to construct macroeconomic composite coincident indexes for the Chinese economy, January 1990–March 2008. Four coincident indicators, namely, industrial production, investment in fixed assets, sales revenues, and the money supply, M₁, are selected to compute the coincident index. Strong asymmetries are found with recent business cycles in China characterized by expansions of longer duration and smaller amplitude relative to the contraction stage. The two models produce similar composite index series, but the DMSF model shows frequent transitions that are difficult to interpret. A comparison of the composite coincident index and other measures of macroeconomic activity provides economic interpretations of the patterns in the index. There are notable differences between the index and GDP growth rates over this period, reflecting its more comprehensive measurement of economic activity. This more comprehensive view of macroeconomic activity increases understanding of changes in China's policies and economic fluctuations that are not shown by GDP growth rates alone.     

Identifying Price Discrimination When Product Menus Are Endogenous

A well‐known approach to identifying second‐degree price discrimination is based on examining correlations between product menus and prices. When product menus are endogenous, however, tests for price discrimination may be biased by the fact that unobservables affecting costs or demand may jointly determine product menus and prices, leading one to falsely infer price discrimination. Using observed product characteristics or fixed effects to control for these unobservables confounds inference on the nature of price discrimination by potentially “overcorrecting” the original bias. I propose a difference‐indifferences approach that is robust to this critique. An application to the pricing of different package sizes of paper towels is presented.     

Business Cycle in China since the Lehman Crisis： Interaction among Macroeconomic Policy,Economic Growth and Inflation

The major objectives of China＇s macroeconomic policy are to stabilize economic growth and inflation, which, in turn, are important factors determining key prices, such as the policy interest rate, the renminbi exchange rate and stockprices. In a framework that distinguishes different phases of the business cycle based on whether the current period＇s economic growth rate and inflation rate are above or below their ＂＇normal＂ values, this paper analyzes the interaction among macroeconomic policy, economic growth and inflation in China since the Lehman crisis, and the implications for these key prices. The path of China＇s economy indicates that stimulus measures taken by the government during the recession phase and tightening measures implemented during the overheating phase have helped minimize the fluctuation over the business cycle. Our analysis shows that Chinese authorities tend to rely more on adjusting the exchange rate than the interest rate to stabilize the economy. Comparing with conditions at the time of the post-Lehman recession, the current slowpace of economie growth in China may reflect not only weakening demand, but also a lowerpotential growth rate associated with the arrival of the Lewis turning point.     

SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE U.S.: A STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS

This paper studies the synchronisation of the South African and the US cycles and transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa in a structural dynamic factor model framework. We find, using the full-sample period, US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services; while US demand shocks are transmitted via interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronisation of cycles. The impact of an increase in comovement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy.