Robots, genes and bytes: technology development and social changes towards the year 2020

Scientific and technological policy has become a key activity in contemporary societies. In this context we present different projections about the evolution of science and technology in the area of robotics and advanced automation, which in turn shapes the new possibilities and risks emerging in this area in the future. This goes hand-in-hand with an analysis of the interaction of such trajectories with the social context from which they emanate. This interaction reinforces the need for establishing the probable sequence of technological innovation; analysing the impacts on economy and society; and providing qualified information for decision-making, both in policy and business. In this article, we present the results of the prospective research carried out in the field of robotics and advanced automation, paying special attention to the transformation trends of organizations, and the integration of robots in daily life and leisure, and underscoring potential repercussions which may deserve more attention and further research.     

Unemployment or protectionism: Some choices for the USA and Western Europe to the year 2000

This article reports on the economic implications to the USA and Western European economies after imposing protectionist trade policies on selected groups of imports till 2000. The effects of this policy are also presented for Japan and the non-oil-producing developing countries. Before discussing the results of the computations and the import restricting assumptions, a summary of the methodological framework, the World Input-Output Model, used in the computation is presented.     

Forecasting the optimal cost of energy conservation by sectors to the year 2000

This paper suggests that government policies to induce or mandate energy conservation across sectors should be based on cost-effective measures. Section 2 outlines the concept of cost-effectiveness by sector according to the marginal cost MC of conservation and the aggregation of the MC curves in a horizontally added aggregate marginal cost curve AMC or the supply curve for conservation. It also outlines a methodology of estimating MC (in constant prices) by regressing total cost of conservation on total energy conserved. Empirical estimation of the MC in the residential sector is attempted in Section 3 by developing data for annualized cost of conservation capital stocks and the related energy savings. The regression of total residential energy conservation costs on total conservation provided the MC at $0.84 per million Btu (MM Btu) to the year 2000. Section 4 used time-series data for the commercial sector and obtained the MC at $0.17/MM Btu for 1980–2000. The MC of conservation in the industrial sector is estimated in Section 5 at $0.78/MM Btu for 1985–2000. In section 6, we estimate the MC in the transportation sector at $2.42/MM Btu for 1980–2000. The last section summarizes the approach and conclusions and recommends that the cost-effectiveness approach dictates that the order of priority for inducing or mandating conservation should be from the commercial to the industrial, to the residential and followed by the transportation sector for the next 20 years.     

2000年理论经济学研究综述（下）

二、微观经济学研究和宏观经济学研究的新进展 (一)制度变迁过程的研究 制度变迁过程一直是我国新制度经济学研究的重点.杨瑞龙等在其中国制度变迁方式转换的三阶段假说的基础上,进一步提出了一个关于中国制度变迁的模型--阶梯式的渐进制度变迁模型.杨认为,改革初期,我国的制度变迁有很强的政府主导性,中央政府是主要的制度供给者,此时的制度变迁为"供给主导型制度变迁方式";改革进行到一定阶段后,地方政府在改革中的作用日渐扩大,此时属"中间扩散新制度变迁方式";随着改革的进一步深入和市场主体的确立,我国的制度变迁方式将逐渐过渡到与市场经济内在要求相一致的需求诱致型制度变迁方式,这就是中国制度变迁的三阶段假说.     

2000年理论经济学研究综述（上）

一、政治经济学和社会主义经济理论热点问题讨论 (一)关于深化对劳动和劳动价值论的认识及收入分配问题 中共中央"十五"计划建议提出:"在经济发展的同时,不断增加城乡居民收入,特别是低收入者的收入.深化收入分配制度改革,坚持效率优先、兼顾公平的原则,实行按劳分配、多种分配方式并存的制度,把按劳分配与按生产要素分配结合起来.鼓励资本、技术等生产要素参与收益分配.随着生产力的发展,科学技术工作和经营管理作为劳动的重要形式,在社会生产中起着越来越重要的作用.在新的历史条件下,要深化对劳动和劳动价值论的认识.建立健全收入分配的激励机制和约束机制."     

中国企业进入东盟市场的投资地点选择

本文从中国企业应具备的自身条件、东盟市场的投资环境、东盟市场结构的不完全性及行业等因素综合分析入手,运用国际企业经营地点选择理论分析东盟市场的自然环境与资源、运输、劳动力、市场等相关变量;分析东盟市场的三个不同层次的次区域经济区的优势与劣势,同时对三个次区域经济区分别结合实例提出相应的策略与措施,并就中国企业进入东盟市场的投资地点选择时如何做出正确决策进行了初步探讨。     

Global patterns of socioeconomic biomass flows in the year 2000: A comprehensive assessment of supply, consumption and constraints

Human use of biomass has become a major component of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. The use of land for biomass production (e.g. cropland) is among the most important pressures on biodiversity. At the same time, biomass is indispensable for humans as food, animal feed, raw material and energy source. In order to support research into these complex issues, we here present a comprehensive assessment of global socioeconomic biomass harvest, use and trade for the year 2000. We developed country-level livestock balances and a consistent set of factors to estimate flows of used biomass not covered by international statistics (e.g. grazed biomass, crop residues) and indirect flows (i.e. biomass destroyed during harvest but not used). We found that current global terrestrial biomass appropriation amounted to 18.7 billion tonnes dry matter per year (Pg/yr) or 16% of global terrestrial NPP of which 6.6 Pg/yr were indirect flows. Only 12% of the economically used plant biomass (12.1 Pg/yr) directly served as human food, while 58% were used as feed for livestock, 20% as raw material and 10% as fuelwood. There are considerable regional variations in biomass supply and use. Distinguishing 11 world regions, we found that extraction of used biomass ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 t/ha/yr, per-capita values varied between 1.2 and 11.7 t/cap/yr (dry matter). Aggregate global biomass trade amounted to 7.5% of all extracted biomass. An analysis of these regional patterns revealed that the level of biomass use per capita is determined by historically evolved patterns of land use and population density rather than by affluence or economic development status. Regions with low population density have the highest level of per-capita biomass use, high-density regions the lowest. Livestock, consuming 30-75% of all harvested biomass, is another important factor explaining regional variations in biomass use. Global biomass demand is expected to grow during the next decades; the article discusses some options and possible limitations related to such a scenario.     

The emergence of countercyclical US fertility: a reassessment of the evidence

Recently Butz and Ward (BW) have challenged the conventional view that fertility is closely linked to economic prosperity. In 1979, they argued that they had detected the emergence of countercyclical fertility in the US and that this phenomenon would become the norm in advanced economies. They argued that, as more women entered the work force, couples would increasingly time births to coincide with periods of high female unemployment and periods when the female real wage is low--that is, during economic slumps rather than booms. Their analysis of US data for the post-war period apparently confirms this theory. In this papger we have reanalyzed BW's estimated equations. This analysis indicates that their key vairable do not help to explain fertility. We conclude that the data do not provide empirical support for BW's theory and that their key variables (real wages and income) do not aid in forecasting fertility rates.     

从强度指数看中国与东盟的经济关系

本文运用进出口强度指数和投资强度指数分析了中国与东盟国家自90年代以来双边贸易投资关系.结果表明：中国与东盟双边贸易与投资紧密联系程度持续稳定上升;中国与东盟国家紧密经贸联系具有雄厚的物质基础,对东亚经济一体化进程具有推进作用.     

The emergence of language differences in artificial codes

The paper studies how common codes of artificial language in communication are developed in the laboratory. We find that codes emerging from an environment with more variable spatial positions tend to use a limited set of symbols to represent positions, whereas codes emerging from an environment with more variable geometric shapes tend to discriminate among shapes. The paper also experimentally shows that “language” affects the way its “speakers” share the view about a novel figure.     

The emergence of English commercial law: Analysis inspired by the Ottoman experience

Thirteenth-century England was a commercial backwater whose trade was dominated by foreigners. To accommodate and encourage foreign merchants, England modified its legal system by creating legal institutions that were available to both domestic and foreign traders. Among the most important of these institutions were streamlined debt collection procedures and mixed juries composed of both Englishmen and foreigners. By introducing institutions that treated locals and foreigners equally, England created a level playing field that enabled English merchants to become increasingly prominent in the later Middle Ages. England's ability to modernize its law was facilitated by the secular nature of English law, the representation of merchants in Parliament, and legal pluralism. Medieval England contrasts sharply with the early modern Ottoman Empire. The latter created special institutions for foreign merchants, which eventually put Ottoman Muslims at a competitive disadvantage.     

试论广州与东盟的城市合作

为了使中国与东盟合作取得更好效果,必须加强广东与东盟间的城市合作,尤其是广州与东盟国家的城市合作。广州与东盟城市间合作的条件与发展前景良好,我们必须充分用好商品、要素及产业的比较优势,把广州发展成为富有个性与文化特色、富有国际竞争力的城市。具体策略包括：通过信息流动、文化交流树立现代经营理念,通过资本运动解决资金瓶颈,以商品流动促进城市合作,以人流、物流深化产业合作。     

The emergence of technology systems: knowledge production and distribution in the case of the Emilian plastics district

The emergence of technology systems is the result of interdependentdynamics of the generation and diffusion of complementary bitsof localised technological knowledge. Technological communicationis the crucial element assessing the collective conditions underwhich technological knowledge is accumulated and diffused. Thecase study of the emerging Emilian technological system in theplastics sector shows that the synchronic and diachronic localisedinteractions among industrial dynamics, institutional R&Defforts and technological interrelatedness are the determinantsof the systematic production, accumulation and distributionof localised technological knowledge, in turn explaining theorigin and development of the technology system itself.     

Bargaining with endogenous disagreement: The extended Kalai-Smorodinsky solution

Following Vartiainen (2007) we consider bargaining problems in which no exogenous disagreement outcome is given. A bargaining solution assigns a pair of outcomes to such a problem, namely a compromise outcome and a disagreement outcome: the disagreement outcome may serve as a reference point for the compromise outcome, but other interpretations are given as well. For this framework we propose and study an extension of the classical Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining solution. We identify the (large) domain on which this solution is single-valued, and present two axiomatic characterizations on subsets of this domain.     

The dynamics of population ageing into the twenty-first century: ASEAN and selected countries of Pacific Asia

Demographic aging is examined in selected countries of east and Southeast Asia. "Among the 10 countries discussed in this article, there is a wide range of experience in the process of aging from the advanced stage reached by Japan to the incipient stage evident in the Philippines. Although the direction of age structural shift in these countries is consistent throughout, earlier patterns of fertility, mortality and migration dictate differing effects over the 50-year period, 1970-2020. This is apparent in the behaviour and changing relationships of cohorts passing through the various stages of the life course. The ultimate phase of the current ageing cycle results in a greatly expanded elderly component which, if the case of Japan provides a precedent, is likely to be further inflated by concurrent increases in life expectancy among the elderly themselves."     

The emergence of a protective agency and the constitutional dilemma

In the last decades' revival of contractarianism a constitutional contract is interpreted as a device to overcome the hypothetical state of anarchy. It is not entirely clear, however, how, in a pre-constitutional setting that lacks any institutional forms, an unanimous agreement on the rules and the agency enforcing the rules can be imagined to emerge. This paper conceptualizes the problem in game-theoretic terms. A solution is discussed together with an old dilemma that turns up in this context. The dilemma results from the fact that the protective agency has to be endowed with sufficiently powerful coercive means to prevent anyone breaking the social contract. However, this concentration of power itself may induce a violation by making the protective agency usurp its power. The logical basis of the dilemma is explored together with the conditions under which it may challenge the contractarian approach. I would like to thank Juli Irving-Lessmann, Dennis Mueller, Viktor Vanberg, Georg von Wangenheim, and in particular Hartmut Kliemt for helpful comments on an earlier draft.