国外农村劳动力迁移理论的演变与发展

根据对农村劳动力迁移决策的不同解释,把国外有关劳动力迁移的主要文献分为三类:传统的劳动力迁移理论(包括刘易斯模型、拉尼斯-费景汉模型、托达罗模型)、人力资本劳动力迁移理论和新劳动力迁移理论.目前国内研究劳动力迁移的文献主要以传统劳动力迁移理论和人力资本劳动力迁移理论为研究基础,而对新劳动力迁移理论的借鉴和应用还比较罕见,因此值得我们学习和研究.     

The impact of work and non‐work migration on household welfare,poverty and inequality

This article estimates the impact of work migration and non‐work migration on per capita income, per capita expenditures, poverty and inequality in Vietnam using data from the two most recent Vietnam Household and Living Standard Surveys. We find that both work migration and non‐work migration have a positive impact on per capita expenditures of migrant‐sending households. Non‐work migration significantly decreases the incidence, depth and severity of national poverty. The effect of work migration on poverty is much smaller. Still, while work migration does not lift people out of poverty, it makes their poverty less severe. In addition, both work migration and non‐work migration decrease inequality, albeit only very slightly.     

Capital accumulation through studying abroad and return migration

This paper examines the interplays among studying abroad, return migration and capital accumulation, in a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous ability. Households invest in education and make two migration decisions: whether to study abroad and subsequently whether to return home. The model predicts that the highest, middle and lowest-ability people choose respectively permanent migration, return migration and no migration. More interestingly, we find a novel migration cycle: returnees bring back learned-knowledge and over time, capital accumulates, attracting more return migration. Further, the usual “brain drain” in the literature can be turned into “brain gain”, by providing a subsidy to studying abroad and returning home.     

Migration and Credit Constraints: Theory and Evidence from Vietnam

The new economics of labor migration (NELM) frequently emphasizes the importance of migration as a way for rural households to overcome credit constraints. If this hypothesis is correct, then the credit constraint is a motivation for migration (a relaxation of this constraint would encourage less migration). Conventionally, it is believed that migration is costly and has to be financed with borrowed capital, so the credit constraint is a deterrent of migration (a relaxation of this constraint would encourage more migration). In this paper, an agricultural household model is developed to study whether the credit constraint is a motivation for or a deterrent to migration. The model's result confirms the NELM's hypothesis: for households with high demand for agricultural investments and high net migration return, migration is used as a way to finance capital investments. Using data from four provinces in Vietnam, preliminary evidence is found supporting this hypothesis.     

Migration and Regional Trade Agreements: A (New) Gravity Estimation

This paper investigates the role of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on bilateral international migration. Building on a gravity model for migration, our econometric strategy controls for the multilateral resistance to migration and solves the zero migration flows problem by using a censored quantile regression approach. Further, the endogeneity problem of RTAs in migration settlement is addressed by using instrumental variable censored quantile regression. Our results suggest that the presence of a RTA stimulates the migration stocks among member countries. The pro‐migration effect of RTAs is magnified if the agreement includes also provisions easing bureaucratic procedures for visa and asylum among member countries. Finally, we find an asymmetric effect of RTAs across the quantiles of the distribution of migration settlements.     

户籍管制、基本公共服务供给与城市化——基于城市特征与流动人口监测数据的经验分析

本文在理论分析户籍管制、基本公共服务供给对城市化影响的基础上，利用2015年240个城市特征数据与2016年流动人口监测微观数据进行了实证检验。研究结果显示，户籍管制抑制了流动人口迁移的稳定性与完整性，是城市选择性吸纳高禀赋人口的重要制度工具。提高基本公共服务供给有助于促进流动人口自身稳定与家庭完整迁移，但基本公共服务的正向作用不足以抵消户籍管制的负向影响。研究结果还发现户籍管制、基本公共服务供给对流动人口迁移稳定性与完整性的影响存在个体差异。户籍管制制约了新生代流动人口迁移的稳定性与完整性，增加基本公共服务供给则有利于新生代流动人口与高禀赋人口的稳定与完整迁移。     

中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

迁移类型、户籍身份与工资收入水平*

本文基于2013年中国居民收入调查数据（CHIP）,考察各类迁移对工资收入水平的影响。OLS及PSM估计结果均表明各类迁移有利于工资收入水平的提升;采用局部工具变量法进行稳健性检验,发现本文的研究结论依然成立。分迁移范围来看,市外迁移的平均收入增长效应大于市内迁移的平均收入增长效应;分户籍类型来看,农村户籍迁移的平均收入增长效应大于城市户籍的平均收入增长效应。综合比较各种迁移类型的收入增长效应,由强至弱可以将其排列为：永久移民市外迁移、农村户籍市外迁移、本地居民市外迁移、城市户籍市外迁移、农村户籍市内迁移、城市户籍市内迁移、本地居民市内迁移、永久移民市内迁移。城市化的核心在于满足居民的自由迁移意愿,从本文的研究结论来看,鼓励就近城市化而妨碍人口跨区域流动的城市化模式尚未得到收入增长激励的支撑。在推动户籍制度改革及公共服务均等化的同时,应注重建立全国统一的要素市场,进一步完善城市的空间结构体系。     

Aging and Migration: Micro and Macro Evidence from China

Post-reform China has been experiencing two major demographic changes: an increasingly aging population and an extraordinary surge of rural-urban migrants. The question we ask is: are these two demographic changes related? If yes, then, how? The standard view in the migration literature is that the older the migrant, the lower the likelihood of migration. This paper proposes a simple theory of temporary migration for unskilled labor to fit the context of China. Motivated by our model, we then use both cross-sectional micro data and panel macro data to examine the potential impacts of aging on migration. We find that shifts in China’s age distribution have generated significant changes in the country’s migration patterns: migration will shift to closer provinces (probably switching from interprovincial migration to intra-provincial migration) and will concentrate to a few destination provinces.     

Determinants of migration in the Nordic labor market

"Migration flows in the integrated Nordic labor market are heavily dominated by Finnish migration to Sweden. Differences in migration behavior across the Nordic populations are identified. Elasticities of migration are obtained from a logistic human capital model estimated as seemingly unrelated regressions. Differences in migration behavior are shown to exist, but the elasticities are not systematically higher for the Finns as could be expected. The domination of Finnish migration to Sweden is instead explained by real wage differences and since these have narrowed, major migration flows should not be expected in the future, unless large differences in labor market performance arise."     

Migration under Asymmetric Information and Human Capital Formation

We study the migration of skilled workers, along with the skill acquisition incentives created by the prospect of migration. We trace out the dynamics of migration as foreign employers accumulate experience in deciphering the skill levels of individual migrants. It is found that migration by the relatively highly skilled is followed by return-migration from both tails of the migrant skill distribution; that the possibility of migration induces skill acquisition at home; that until the probability of discovery reaches its steady state equilibrium, migration consists of a sequence of moves characterized by a rising average skill level; and that migration of skilled workers can entail a home-country welfare gain.     

How Borrowing Constraints Hinder Migration: Theoretical Insights from a Random Utility Maximization Model*

We provide a theoretical framework to analyze how financial constraints hinder migration. Introducing wealth heterogeneity and borrowing constraints into a random utility maximization model of migration, we find evidence of multilateral resistance to migration stemming from borrowing constraints. We calibrate the model on 22 European countries, and we show that omitting the constraints biases upward the estimation of bilateral migration rates. We then simulate an increase in the bilateral cost of migration to the United Kingdom. We find that omitting the constraints biases downward the change entailed by the cost increase in the bilateral rates of migration to all destinations.     

Age Patterns of China's Repeat Migration

This study analyzes the relationship between the age of first migration and the probability of repeat migration focusing on rural to urban migrants in China. It is based on the data of the 2015 Migrant Dynamics Monitoring Survey (MDMS). The data shows that 52.64% of migrants had experienced repeat migration before 2015, the amount of which is huge. The empirical results indicate an inverted U-shaped connection between age of first migration and the probability of repeat migration. The probability of making repeat migration from rural to urban areas reaches its peak if an individual experienced his/her first migration at around 16 years old. The probability for repeat migration continues to increase before the age of 16 and keeps dropping afterward. Additionally, this study explores the reason for this inverse U-shaped relationship, and it finds that reasons for first migration have great impacts. Specifically, the probability of repeat migration goes up with age if an individual first migrates before age 16 and is accompanied by parents. This probability decreases with age, if an individual first migrates after or at age 16, because of work.     

Welfare-Induced Migration at State Borders: New Evidence from Micro-Data

This paper extends and synthesizes the various approaches used in the recent welfare migration literature to both offer the most comprehensive set of tests to date for welfare migration and to also determine the relative importance of short-distance moves in welfare migration flows. The current study follows on the finding of McKinnish (2005) of welfare migration effects obtained by comparing welfare participation at state borders to state interiors. This identification strategy is extended to micro-data from the 1980 and 1990 Decennial Censuses and combined with the demographic comparisons used elsewhere in the welfare migration literature. The signs and patterns of the estimates are consistent with the presence of welfare migration effects, and the magnitudes of the estimates are consistent with the importance of short-distance moves in welfare-induced migration flows, but most of the estimates are not statistically significant.     

迁移模式对农民工人际网络构建的影响研究

利用2011年全国流动人口抽样调查数据,运用多元logistic回归分析模型,研究迁移模式对农民工重构人际网络的影响。迁移意愿在迁移模式影响人际网络的过程中起到显著作用;迁移距离和迁移规模对两个阶段人际网络都产生负影响,迁移时间对两个阶段人际网络都产生正影响;农民工在初级人际网络建立阶段群体差异不大,呈现"内卷性"群体特征,迁移距离和迁移时间都不显著,而在新型人际网络构建阶段群体差异显现,三种迁移模式均显著,构成新型人际网络差异性的重要原因;受教育程度、就业身份等显著影响人际网络的构建。     

约翰·西普先生学术档案

<正>约翰·西普是英国国家生产力中心(网址为www.natprodcentre.com)主任。该中心负责为决策者和商贸组织提供一系列服务。虽然这是"英国的国家生产力中心",但是约翰参与了很多国际项目的发展,并且担任了很多政府机构的顾问。最近,约翰正在为联合国工业发展组织做一个项目——寻找提升印度尼西亚渔业/海产品工业的价值链的方法。约翰目前已经投身于澳大利亚和巴基斯坦未来的发展项目中。除此之外,约翰还担任了很多其他的职务,参与了很多其他的项目。     

Ways of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation

This paper presents ways of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation. Migrations discussed include international, domestic, and migrations among regions. It was proposed that a conceptual model for the state migration policy of Russia for the medium and long term should be developed to project main goals, tasks, and priorities of migration policy. Secondly, there is a need to elaborate the conceptual model of the distribution of productive forces of Russia under the market economy conditions for the long term, and its connection with migration policy. Thirdly, the system of macroeconomic regulation of the processes of migration should be a general model for the settlement of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the Russian society should guard itself against the negative social consequences of illegal migration. Illegal entry of foreigners and labor migration is considered to be the principal problems of migration in Russia. Finally, Russia should focus on the redistribution of its population in such a way that it will gain the maximum benefit.     

中国的城乡移民-我们知道什么,我们还应该知道什么?

该文综述了中国农村到城镇迁移问题的经济学研究.综述主要的关注点有四个:(1)城乡分割和移民的演化;(2)对于农村到城镇迁移的解释;(3)迁移与劳动力市场演变的互动关系,特别是劳动力市场的分割、劳动力市场的柔性和工资差距;(4)今后进一步研究的方向.     

农村剩余劳动力迁移的充要条件分析——基于预期收入成本理论

笔者结合收益成本理论及托达罗模型,在对农民预期迁移收益和成本分析的基础上,通过调研数据,分别对就地和异地两种迁移方式以及迁移前后的收益进行对比分析。结论显示:第一,农村剩余劳动力就地迁移和异地迁移的最低期望月薪差值远远大于异地迁移成本;第二,农民对就地迁移和异地迁移的最低期望月收入分别是农民在农村剔除务工收入后人均月收入的3.42倍和4.80倍,这两个比例数值即是本文寻求的焦点——农村剩余劳动力迁移的充要条件,并且该比例数值可能会随着不同地区农村经济水平的提高而减小。     

Study on ecological migration in Xinjiang, China

1. Introduction Migration is a common subject of anthropology, demology, economics, ecology, history, law, politi- cal science and demotics, though their focuses on it are different [1]. Simply speaking, migration means the moving of population for the purpose of settling down from one region or society to another region or society. Although not a new phenomenon, as a part of the globalization of the world, migration is speeding up. The global migration could be regarded as a reflection of the…