人民币理财业务与我国的利率市场化

近两年，我国利率市场化进程明显加快，货币市场上银行同业拆借利率、债券回购利率、票据市场转贴现和率、国债与政策性金融债的发行利率和二级市场利率等基本实现市场化，2004年10月央行宣布取消贷款利率上限和存款利率下限，进一步放松了人民币的利率管制，随着利率市场化的推进，商业银行所面临的利率风险也越来越大，目前除存款利率上限和贷款利率下限之外，我国基本取消了利率管制。我国金融系统以银行为主导，人民币存款利率直接影响着商业银行吸收资金的成本，对金融市场影响重大，对人民币存款利率上限的限制自然成为我国利率市场化进程中的难点，人民币存款利率市场化也就成为我国完全利率市场化的标志。     

关于利率市场化若干问题的研究

本文研究了利率市场化的四个特征以及利率市场化与利率自由化的差异，并根据我国经济体制改革的模式，指出我国利率市场化过程应是渐进式的。文章还分析了利率市场化进程中的五个有利因素和四个难点，在此基础上，提出了利率市场化改革的逻辑思路和步骤安排。     

利率市场化应谨慎推进

中国人民银行决定全面放开贷款利率，迈出了利率市场化重要的一步。本文回顾了中国17年来利率市场化的历程，在分析美国、日本、韩国、台湾利率市场化实践经验以及利率市场化的理论基础上，对于中国下一步利率市场化改革提出了若干建议。     

利率市场化改革进程中商业银行需要防范的风险点及对策

经济全球化的发展趋势，我国即将加入WTO，我国利率的市场化改革是大势这所趋，现实之必要，中国人民银行行长戴相龙也曾表示，我国将先开放外币利率，后放开人民币利率，先放开贷款利率，后放开存款利率，用三年左右的时间完成利率开放的整体计划，这明确指出了利率市场化改革的方向和步骤，利率市场化是指利率的水平及其结构由市场资金供求决定，中央银行运用货币政策工具对市场资金供求和利率总水平进行间接调控，利率市场化改革的目标是：建立以市场资金供求为基础，以中央利率市场化改革的推进，以货币市场利率为中介的市场利率体系，随着利率市场化改革的推进，商业银行势必将面临日益加大的风险防范问题，笔者现就利率市场化改革过程中潜在的市场风险范问题及对策分析如下。     

利率市场化问题研究

利率市场化是市场经济发展的必然要求，是我国利率管理体制改革的既定目标。实现利率市场化，对于促进我国金融体制改革，加强宏观经济调控和优化经济结构都具有重要意义。但由于受到客观经济环境的制约，我国利率市场化改革并不宜于过快推进，目前的重点工作应该是为利率市场化积极创造有利条件，而不是去为之设计进程。     

市场化之后的利率结构分析

随着金融体制改革的不断深化，我国利率市场化的条件也日益成熟。该分析了利率市场的条件和环境，介绍了市场化后的利率结构，提出了相应的政策建议。     

从金融市场及其参与主体的现状我国的利率市场化

纵观世界上大多数国家推行利率市场化的进程，我们知道，利率市场化是一个漫长、复杂、渐进的过程，它需要具备许多条件，加入WTO本身，并不是利率要实现市场化的理由，许多GATT（WTO的前身）成员国，如美国、日本、法国等。实现利率市场化经历了20年左右的时间。本通过借鉴国外的有关经验，主要从利率实现市场化所必需的宏观市场参与主体的情况，来考察我国利率市场化的进程，认为对于利率市场化，我们的态度要积极，这是适应国际竞争的需要，但更需要有计划、有步骤、稳妥地推行。     

浅论利率市场化改革

为加入WTO作准备，就要进行利纺市场化改革，改革不合理的利率结构，发展市场经济。进行利率市场化改革的理论条件、宏观经济条件都已具备。我国实行利率市场化改革的目标是：建立以中央银行利率为基础、以货币市场利率为中介、由市场供求决定利率水平的利率转换机制。     

论中国利率政策的选择

利率作为调节资金配置的杠杆和最灵敏的经济信号，其市场化的进程被认为是一国金融深化的重要环节之一，从中国应实行利率市场化改革的原因和利率市场化改革潜在的风险两方面分析，指出我国的利率市场是一个渐进的进程，最后介绍了对中国利率市场化改革的进程安排的一些思考。     

中国利率体系中主要利率间的关系研究

当前，我国正处于利率市场化改革的关键时期。利率市场化改革要求中央银行有完善的价格调控手段，并体现在基准利率体系的完善和利率传导机制的畅通上。本文对我国主要利率品种之间的关系进行实证研究发现，我国货币市场利率、央票利率、贷款利率等相关性不断增强。据此，本文对我国进一步推进利率市场化改革提出了政策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.