四川省城市化与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章在回顾城市化与经济增长关系的基础上,对四川省1978—2007年城市化与经济增长的时间数列进行了格兰杰因果关系验证等实证计量研究。结果显示,改革开放以来,四川省经济增长对城市化的作用相对较强,但是,城市化的发展对经济增长的促进作用不是明显。有必要加快四川省城市化发展水平,在分析四川省城市化发展出现的问题的基础上,提出加快四川省城市化的对策和办法。     

中国城市化与经济增长关系实证分析

利用中国1987-2008年的省际面板数据,结合联立方程和分布滞后模型,考察了中国城市化与经济增长之间的相互影响。研究发现:城市化与经济增长的相互促进作用在短期内存在;从累积效应来看,城市化对经济增长呈现显著的负面影响,同时经济增长对城市化也呈现显著的负面影响;从长期来看,中国的经济增长与城市化相互促进的良性循环机制并未形成。     

The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on world emissions of a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. We use a large unbalanced panel data consisting of 177 countries from 1980 to 2006. The key finding of this paper is that there are structural breaks in the data that demonstrate the effects of the international agreement. While carbon dioxide emissions declined for industrialized (Annex B) countries since the signing of the international agreement, the effect of income per capita is much larger during these years. However in the same period, the effect of industrial production has declined not just for industrialized countries but for developing countries as well. The results are robust to the exclusion of the US and Australia as Annex B countries since they had not ratified the protocol by 2006.     

高技术产业与经济增长关联性的实证分析

文章通过1995～2004年高技术产业的相关数据,建立了数学模型,运用实证分析的方法,求得我国和典型地区高技术产业各行业对GDP的产出弹性,得出不同地区均有各自优势行业的结论,同时还分析了高技术产业对我国三次产业的调整作用,为我国高技术产业发展规划提供决策参考。     

The relationship between economic freedom and peace

Classical liberals have long held that free markets foster peaceful societies. Many argue that free trade between nations will foster economic interdependence, and peace should ensue as a result. Nevertheless, there are many dissenters. While exploring the relationship between free trade and peace is important, it is only one part of ‘economic freedom.’ More research needs to be conducted to see how countries with high levels of entrepreneurship, low levels of corruption, independent judiciaries, and sound regulatory environments might be fostering peace.     

The relationship between economic development and business ownership revisited

This paper revisits the two-equation model of Carree, van Stel, Thurik and Wennekers (2002) where deviations from the ‘equilibrium’ rate of business ownership play a central role in determining both the growth of business ownership and that of economic development. Two extensions of the original set-up are addressed: using longer time series of averaged data of 23 OECD countries (up to 2004) we can discriminate between different functional forms of the ‘equilibrium’ rate and we allow for different penalties for being above or under the ‘equilibrium’ rate. The additional data do not provide evidence of a superior statistical fit of a U-shaped ‘equilibrium’ relationship when compared to an L-shaped one. There appears to be a growth penalty for having too few business owners but not for having too many.     

Re-examining the relationship between economic growth and inequality in the New Member States

The link between income inequality and economic growth has raised many debates in the literature and has generated a large spectrum of results over time. This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between economic growth and income inequality, as well as their macroeconomic and institutional determinants in the New Member States, between 2000 and 2009. In the presence of a set of explicative variables, the economic growth influences the social inequality through a U-shaped relationship. Health, education and gross capital formation generate different direct and indirect effects on income inequality as the per capita GDP growths, while the transition indicators are found to be either common or specific determinants of inequality and growth.     

The relationship between trade,FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model

The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness and economic growth in host countries remains one of the most important issues in the economic literature and met with renewed interest in recent years mainly for countries suffering from unemployment problems and lack of technological progress. This paper examines this issue for Tunisia by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration for the period from 1970 to 2008. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when foreign direct investment is the dependent variable. The associated equilibrium correction is also significant, confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. The results also indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth, from economic growth to FDI, from trade to economic growth and from economic growth to trade in the short run. Even though there is a widespread belief that FDI can generate positive spillover externalities for the host country, our empirical results fail to confirm this belief for the case of Tunisia. They go against the generally accepted idea considering the positive impact of FDI on economic growth to be automatic. The results found for Tunisia can be generalized and compared to other developing countries which share a common experience in attracting FDI and trade liberalization.     

Long-term relationship between political behavior and stock market return: new evidence from quantile regression

The stock market is an extremely sensitive and comprehensive indicator of the fluctuating political climate as well as investor confidence. Therefore, in an era of fierce media competition, the long-term influence of political behaviors on the Taiwan stock market is an important issue. However, the traditional regression model can only describe the “average” influence of variables on rate of return rather than completely describe conditional distribution as in quantile regression, which also analyzes correlations between stock return and the congressional effect.     

Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from Indonesia

Energy policy-makers in Indonesia are interested in the causal relationship between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short- and long-run causality issues between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in Indonesia using time-series techniques. To this end, annual data covering the period 1965–2006 are employed and tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on an error-correction model are applied. The results show that there is a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects CO₂ emissions and that CO₂ emissions also stimulate further energy consumption. In addition, the results support the occurrence of uni-directional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption and to CO₂ emissions without any feedback effects. Thus, energy conservation and/or CO₂ emissions reduction policies can be initiated without the consequent destructive economic side effects.     

The relationship between wage growth and wage levels

We estimate the covariance between the permanent component of wages and a random coefficient on experience in models both with potential experience and with actual experience. Actual experience is allowed to be arbitrarily correlated with both the permanent component of wages and the random component on experience. We find no evidence that workers of higher ability experience faster wage growth. Our point estimates suggest that a worker with a one standard deviation higher level of permanent ability would have a return to annual potential experience that is 0.61 of a percentage point lower. The analogous point estimate for actual experience is 0.87 of a point lower. Contrary to the popular perception, wage growth among low‐skill workers appears to be at least as high as that for a medium‐skilled worker. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the social and economic impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on sustainable mobility using cumulative ordinal models: trend odds model

In the context of environmental sustainability evaluation, grouped under climate change, health and ecosystem themes, an impact that could be investigated is the Global Warming Potential (GWP), whose sources are a multitude. In urban areas the evaluation of real vehicles emissions is an essential activity in order to suggest possible solution to local administrators. They still express the need to improve and maintain the characteristics of the breathing air at the best possible quality level. Moreover, these solutions, such as planning measures or traffic control management in respect of pollution, would be apply at different geographical levels, i.e. national, regional or urban scale. Another factor to be investigated is the effect of technologies and emission control systems to comply more stringent limits (Euro 4/5/6) and improve air quality to a lower environmental impact. GWP, indicator of climate change, is measured in terms of CO₂ equivalency emission values variable. To perform this activity an experimental campaign was carried out with several vehicles from different manufacturers and with a wide variety in terms of mass, power, engine displacement and type approval technology. The experimental plan includes some repetitions of the urban section in Naples city centre.The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to provide a strategy on the choice of a logistic model with ordinal data and with trend, and, second, to evaluate the usefulness of such models for environmental sustainability (CO₂ and other vehicular pollutant emissions), with particular emphasis on model formulation, the interpretation of model coefficients, and the implications of such models.     

Nonlinear relationship between economic growth and nuances of globalisation with income stratification: Roles of financial development and governance

We study the effect of overall globalisation on economic growth in a neoclassical macroeconomic growth model. We further assess our model by considering the decomposed measures of globalisation including economic, political, and social globalisation components. To this end, we estimate panel data models by applying the cross-sectional dependency-autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) approach to a sample of 116 countries during the available period, 1980–2015. We classified our sample into upper middle-, lower middle-, and high-income groups to minimise country-specific heterogeneity. Our results affirm the presence of a quadratic (nonlinear) U-shaped relationship between the overall globalisation (including the economic, political, social components) and economic growth for the lower middle- and upper middle-income group. However, they provide evidence of a positive linear relationship between globalisation and economic growth for the high-income countries. Given the arguments that the impact of globalisation on growth is conditional on local financial development (FD) and quality of governance (QoG), we incorporate their role. We provide fresh evidence that the impacts of globalisation on economic growth are more profound in the countries with a higher QoG and a higher deepening of FD. We further check the robustness of our analysis applying the U test and dynamic generalised methods of moment approach. We also provide policy implications.     

Interactions between financial constraints and economic growth

The financial economy and the real economy are interconnected through various, complex, and evolving transmission mechanisms, whose literary coverage is far from comprehensive. In this context, we wish to contribute to the literature on the interactions between financial constraints and economic growth. We introduce financial dynamics in the R&D-based growth literature, by bringing Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist’s (1999) informational asymmetries into Romer’s (1990) growth model. With the developed framework, our main goal is to examine if and how such asymmetries impact economic growth. We find that the overall impact of this form of financial constraints on long-term growth is negative.     

我国城市经济增长效率与城市化效率比较分析

利用数据包络分析的曼奎斯特指数方法测算了2000-2008年我国248个城市的经济增长效率和城市化效率,比较分析了不同区域、不同等级城市的效率表现。研究发现,我国城市经济增长效率持续提高,但城市化长期处于低效率状态,严重滞后于经济增长;地级市两种效率的初始领先地位已逐渐被直辖市所取代;东部地区城市的效率表现优于其他地区,但不同等级城市之间差异较大,城市化严重滞后和轻微滞后的城市数量都比较多。认为通过合理的空间规划和产业引导,提高城市化效率、促进城市化与国民经济增长协调发展,是下一阶段城市发展要解决的关键问题。     

On the relationship between economic development and political democracy

A politico-economic model is defined, in which consumers, at date 0, decide how much to invest in a firm (and how much of its stock to purchase), whose production possibilities are determined by the outcome of an election, to be held at date 1. At date 1, consumers vote on the level of pollution the firm shall be allowed to emit. There are incomplete markets; the states of the world are the two possible electoral outcomes at date 1, each associated with the victory of a particular party. In turn, the parties represent poor and rich voters; voters’ interests at date 1 are determined by the investments they have made at date 0. Because parties are uncertain about a parameter of voter preferences, the electoral (Nash) equilibrium at date 1 is not median-voter: there are two possible policies (pollution levels), occurring with probabilities that can be calculated. A full equilibrium of the model is an economic equilibrium with incomplete markets at date 0 and a political equilibrium at date 1, each of which induces the other. In a fictional ‘benevolent dictatorship,’ elections are called off, and the dictator announces a pollution policy which is the expected outcome of the would-be elections. By substituting the expected value of a lottery for a lottery, the utilities of citizens, who are risk-averse, increase. There are, however, costs to dictatorship, in the form of the absence of civil liberties. For any economic environment, it is possible to compute the equilibria under democracy and benevolent dictatorship, and to evaluate what coalition of the population prefers one to the other. In this way, the benevolent dictatorship is a benchmark against which to measure the costs of democracy. We examine to what extent the support for democracy, contrasted with benevolent dictatorship, grows among the population as economic development occurs. Development is simulated in five different ways, and it is not unambiguously the case that it induces a growing social preference for democracy. I have benefitted from discussions with A. Alesina and M. Quinzii, from the comments of S. Barbera at the International Economic Association conference on democracy and development (1992), from the comments of Michael Winston at the NBER political economy conference (1992), and from comments by participants at these conferences and at several university seminars.     

The optimal carbon tax mechanism for managing carbon emissions

Along Pigouvian lines, the carbon tax not only exceeds the carbon emission damage imposed on society, but ignores the potential cost from deliberate carbon abatement, which in turn challenges the stability and optimality of the Pigouvian solution. For correcting these distortions, this paper amends the standard Pigouvian version by using piecewise tax functions to approximate the social damage curve of carbon emissions. An optimal carbon tax mechanism is designed, where the tax is endogenously determined from social welfare maximization. With the help of a modification instrument, the carbon tax corrects emitters’ non-optimal individual decision and the social optimum is implemented efficiently. How to put the carbon tax into practice is examined under both the deterministic and stochastic modeling settings. In both cases, we demonstrate the structure and effectiveness of the carbon tax in detail. Moreover, a flexible adjustment tax scheme is proposed, which may produce the double-dividend effect that reduces carbon emissions and relieves financial burden of carbon abatement simultaneously. These may improve the application of market-based carbon-reducing tools in public management and pollution regulation.     

The relationship between discretionary slack and growth in small firms

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - Discretionary slack, along with entrepreneurial orientation (EO), are vital to the growth and long-term survival of small firms. This...     

The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Academics, politicians, the public in general and researchers have great interest in the non-observed economy. However, there is divergence in its definition, accounting methodology and economic effects. In this paper we conduct a meta-analysis on the empirical literature that estimates the impact of the parallel economy on economic growth. We conclude that there is no publication bias and that the average effect of the parallel economy on economic growth is insignificant. However, the reported effects differ considerably with the type and number of countries included in the sample of primary studies, the structure of the data, the methodology used to measure the parallel economy, the number of citations of primary studies, and the year they were published.