国际私人数字货币对中国经济的影响与应对之策

数字经济时代背景下,数字技术引领数字企业商业生态变革,区块链技术赋能的私人数字货币应运而生.作为数字经济的重要组成部分,私人数字货币颠覆了传统的货币体系,对全球经济秩序产生了深远影响.私人数字货币的潜在经济影响主要包括:导致私人数字货币市场垄断、引发通货膨胀或通货紧缩、颠覆传统货币支付体系.私人数字货币对法定货币的影响主要包括:削弱主权国家货币地位、诱发铸币权由政府向企业转移、降低传统货币政策的有效性.面对国际私人数字货币对中国经济社会的潜在影响,中国应突破现有数字技术瓶颈,加快中国法定数字货币落地;深化法定数字货币国际化合作,推进人民币国际化进程;整合数字企业力量,探索中国数字货币发展新模式.     

私人部门数字货币对金融资产的波动溢出效应——基于比特币跨市场信息传递视角

在我国进行央行数字货币试点的特殊背景下,监测私人部门数字货币产生的影响对于引导主权数字货币功能建设和防范化解风险均具有重要意义.本文评估以比特币为代表的私人部门数字货币对金融资产的波动溢出效应,并分析风险传染的网络拓扑结构.研究表明,比特币对全球性避险资产没有形成波动净溢出,是风险波动的净接收方;我国对私人数字货币的监管效果明显,2018-2019年离岸人民币与比特币的信息关联度显著降低;芝加哥商品所将私人数字货币业务引入传统金融市场增加了比特币对美国金融市场的风险溢出,需要在风险层面进一步论证.研究建议监管数字货币及其衍生产品要以市场实际运行作为重要参考,面对私人数字货币的风险溢出应充分发挥央行数字货币的国际影响力,扩展主权数字资产在金融市场中的份额.     

数字货币及其经济影响研究新进展

目前已有数千种数字货币在全球发行,数字货币研究是近年来经济学领域研究的热点之一,但仍然缺乏对各类数字货币研究及前沿问题的系统梳理。本文依据支付方式的四大属性对货币体系中的数字货币进行区分,阐述了各类数字货币的本质与特性以及数字货币可能产生的经济影响。目前,货币支付体系中的数字货币主要包括加密货币、E-money、I-money等私人发行的数字货币以及央行发行的法定数字货币。研究表明,数字货币的出现会对传统货币体系产生颠覆性的影响,进而影响到金融体系的稳定与货币政策传导。因此,各类数字货币(尤其是私人数字货币)也受到各国政府与央行的密切关注和积极监管。通过对各类数字货币最新研究文献的系统梳理,本文展示了近年来关于数字货币研究的新进展。     

国际投资流动、储备资产和全球失衡——基于非均衡国际货币体系的视角

全球失衡是当前全球经济发展面临的重要挑战。从非均衡国际货币体系的角度,从理论分析和实证验证两个纬度探究外汇储备、私人投资流动和国际储备资产需求等因素对不同国家经常项目均衡的影响。构建的跨国资产组合模型发现储备货币持有国的官方储备和外部私人投资流入对经常项目均衡有负效应,储备货币需求对储备货币提供国的经常项目也是负影响。使用1989—2013年58个储备货币持有国数据和1995—2011年7个储备货币供应国数据进行实证分析进一步验证了该结论。解决全球失衡问题,改变当前的非均衡国际货币体系势在必行。     

日本数字货币发展策略及启示

日本是全球数字货币交易和使用最活跃的国家之一,在私人数字货币、央行数字货币和数字货币国际合作三方面制定了系统的发展策略。从政策目标看,日本的国内数字货币政策强调发展,国际数字货币政策意在安全,而国际上追求安全也是为国内发展提供保障。从政策内容看,为促进国家经济发展,日本在国内采取了重私人数字货币、慎央行数字货币的策略;为保障国家经济安全,日本在国际上积极推动发达国家之间的央行数字货币合作,以弥补国内央行数字货币发展的制约。在政策协调方面,日本在本国领先的私人数字货币领域采取国内国际互补性策略,在本国慎重的央行数字货币领域采取国内国际替代性策略。参考日本数字货币发展策略,中国在发展数字货币时可考虑充分调动国内私营部门的创新作用,促进国际央行数字货币治理的公平性和包容性,加强国内国际数字货币之间的政策协调。     

E时代的货币自由化:发展前景与货币政策含义

现有文献由于缺乏货币制度及其变迁的分析框架,从而高估了私人电子货币所承载的货币自由化前景。货币制度原理解析表明,迄今为止,尚未出现真正意义上的私人电子货币。货币制度变迁中的激励不足,使得私人电子货币的出现并流通,面临着巨大的制度约束。抛开制度变迁框架后,进一步的货币替代效率分析,也同样得出了私人电子货币令人难以乐观的前景。虽然不存在私人电子货币带给传统货币政策的根本性冲击,但是,在“货币——银行”电子化的背景下,随着货币需求的利率弹性增强,利率在货币政策操作框架中的地位将会明显提高。     

货币竞争产生及其影响研究

文章回顾了竞争性通货的理论背景 ,讨论了在发达经济中私人货币与政府通货的竞争将如何降低通货膨胀率 ,最后展示了私人货币供给如何登场并参与经济运行。     

论货币形式的发展与货币管理的革命--兼谈电子货币的发行与管理

货币是社会公共财产与私人商品的对立统一体。货币的内在矛盾既决定了货币管理的必要性 ,也推动了货币形式的演变 ,进而推动了货币管理方式的发展。电子货币作为一种新型的货币形式 ,要求有与之相适应的管理方式。     

央行法定数字货币发行的驱动力、影响推演及政策建议

当前,央行法定数字货币正在紧密推进过程中,其迅速发展的背后有着深刻的驱动力因素.数字货币是电子货币进一步发展的产物,其中又分为央行发行的法定数字货币和私人发行的加密数字货币,而广义的数字货币则与电子货币是同义词.类似互联网企业发行的虚拟货币,也是电子货币的一个子集.具有经济发展稳健性和良好货币发行信用的国家所推出的央行法定数字货币是未来数字货币发展的主流,但这并不意味着私人部门发行的数字货币毫无价值.央行法定数字货币可以提高人民币在国际货币体系中的影响力,借助大数据技术提升对经济的预测、调控能力,降低货币的印刷、发行、流通成本.中国要从市场竞争的角度优化央行法定数字货币的用户体验,丰富央行法定数字货币的运营场景,积极开展国际合作和公私部门合作,完善央行法定数字货币的法律监管制度,从而提升央行法定数字货币的竞争力,形成多层次的数字货币体系.     

自由银行业思想述评

电子货币的私人发行使得哈耶克"货币非国家化"和"自由货币"的观点再次受到学者们的重视,并形成了自由银行学派。虽然当前电子货币私人发行的格局有些类似学者们构想的竞争性货币供给制度,但是回顾货币史,深入分析自由银行制度,不难发现它并不像自由银行学派学者们所描述的那样完美,在货币金融领域贯彻自由竞争思想是不可行的。当前电子货币分散发行的现状是各国央行基于技术竞争的考虑而采取的权宜之策,中央银行以卡特尔方式垄断货币供给的货币制度并不会发生质的变化。     

The theory of fiat money and private money as alternative media of exchange

A random-matching model with a clearinghouse is constructed to investigate the impact of private money on economic efficiency and social welfare in three monetary regimes. A subset of agents, called bankers, whose credit histories are recorded by the clearinghouse, are allowed to issue private banknotes in order to consume. Those private liabilities may serve as media of exchange, either by themselves, or alongside a stock of fiat money. Under certain conditions, welfare in a monetary steady state with private money is strictly higher than that attained in a steady state where private money is prohibited.     

A monetary economy with counterfeiting

We apply a search-theoretic model of fiat money to study the equilibria in which counterfeit money is accepted. Circulation of counterfeit money presupposes that the agents are impatient and that the punishment for holding it is not too severe. When the stock of genuine money is small counterfeit money may improve the efficiency of the economy. We establish that a monetary economy can be created with private provision of (counterfeit) money as long as the ruler has control over punishments. Totally noncooperative provision will fail as the economy will become flooded with money.     

中国货币供给规模的实证检验——基于改进的第一代货币危机模型分析

我国货币供给、国内信贷与外汇储备增加之间在大多数年份保持一定的均衡关系.但在少数年份,货币供给也出现不足或超额现象.因此,我国在货币投放的时候,需要全面考虑货币供给、国内信贷与外汇储备增加之间的关系,在继续保持货币供给正常增长的同时,改善货币供应结构,提高货币政策的有效性,增加有效货币供给.     

货币供给与外汇管理体制改革

本文分析了货币供给的来源,指出我国目前的外汇管理体制导致央行难以有效地控制货币供给,特别是基础货币的供给,提出了改进汇率形成机制、深化外汇管理体制改革的设想和方法。     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in China

In order to account for currency substitution, the majority of recent studies relating to the specification of the demand for money include the exchange rate as another determinant of the demand for money. However, those who have estimated the demand for money in China have been unable to find any significant effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money by the Chinese. We show that this is due to the assumption that exchange rate changes have symmetric effects. Once depreciations are separated from appreciations of the yuan, those exchange rate changes are shown to have significant effects on the demand for money in China, but in an asymmetric manner.     

Shadow Money in the 19th Century: Is Marx Relevant for Understanding Contemporary Shadow Money?

ABSTRACT

The growth of shadow money, since the 1980s, has implications for both central bank policy and the theorization of money. However, modern shadow money has a historical analogue in the private bill market of 19th century England This article explores the relevance of Marx’s logical and historical analysis of the evolution of the forms and functions of money in capitalist economies, and his concrete analysis of the bill market in order to understand shadow money today.     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements

We examine the importance of exchange rate and money supply movements for the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal contractions and find: (i) contractions associated with a favorable macroeconomic outcome have been preceded by significantly higher real depreciations as compared to contractions associated with a less favorable macroeconomic outcome and (ii) contractions preceded by real depreciations improve expectations about future income and generate higher private consumption growth. We discuss policy implications for countries both outside and inside the EMU.
JEL classification : E 21; E 63; H 30     

中国的热钱规模及影响分析

近年来随着外汇储备的激增,中国的热钱规模也迅速增加,并已达到了一个相当惊人的水平。人们对热钱涌入中国的规模和途径虽有很大争议,但热钱的快速进出已对中国资本市场、房地产市场等的健康发展产生了极大影响,应加强资本管制,加大金融监管力度,标本兼治,内外兼修。     

Public Knowledge and Financial Regulation: Two Post Crisis Periods

Abstract:

Since at least the days of Adam Smith there has been the recognition of essentially two forms of capitalism: in their theoretical extremes, one in which private companies determine the conditions of the social provisioning of credit and money, and one in which the State representing the general interest does. As we argue, the zeitgeist of the 1930s was a high water mark in the popular understanding of money and banking and its relationship with society. In contrast, today the general population is woefully ignorant on these points. As we argue, the relationship between financial governance and those governed hinges on the knowledge of the latter. Today’s public discourse reveals a widespread ignorance over financial matters that must accompany a likewise extreme moment of private control over nations’ money and credit. As we argue, the first steps towards a capitalism at the service of humanity and under public control, the first priority is publicly diffused knowledge.