Including the effects of prior and recent contact effort in a customer scoring model for database marketing

Database marketers often use a scoring model to predict the likely value of contacting customers based on their purchase histories and demographics. However, when purchase history has been a partial result of the firm’s own contacting efforts, these contacts should also be accounted for in the scoring model. The current work extends the existing literature to account for the firm’s contacts by focusing on each customer’s most recent purchase. Contacts prior to that purchase are designated “prior contacts” and those after that purchase “recent contacts.” A new latent variables formulation of the customer’s propensity to respond is used to predict the likelihood and time of response as well as the relationship to the independent variables. The methodology also addresses the statistical problems of “selection bias” and “endogeneity,” which have been largely ignored in most customer scoring models. An application to the database of a charitable organization confirms that, in this case: (1) the effect of the firm’s customer contact efforts is associated with a stronger propensity to respond than is the case for the included demographics; (2) the firm’s “recent contact” efforts are associated with larger returns in customers’ propensity to respond than the “prior contact” efforts; and (3) the “recent contact” efforts are associated with an at-first increasing but then diminishing propensity to respond up to a point beyond which actual decreasing returns are observed with further contacts. Clearly, too much contacting can alienate would-be donors. The proposed model is general enough to calibrate such impacts in other database marketing applications where the relative effects might be different.

Spontaneous visualization and concept evaluation

This paper proposes that customers often respond to brand extension concepts by visualizing the product. We call this process spontaneous visualization and suggest that it precedes concept evaluations. In two studies, we show that spontaneous visualization is enhanced by the fit between the parent brand and the extension category and by the ease with which the product category can be imagined. The appeal of the visualized image in turn determines whether visualization enhances or decreases concept evaluations. In addition, we find a stronger link between product evaluations and delayed choice when evaluations are based on visualization; evaluations based on visualization hence appear to be more “valid” in the sense of predicting subsequent behavior. Implications of these findings and ideas for future research are discussed.

Integrating service and design: the influences of organizational and communication factors on relative product and service characteristics

The aim of this study is to identify the organizational and communication antecedents, and evaluate the consequences on relative product and service characteristics, of the use of service-sourced information by product designers during new product development. An empirical study of 121 product design managers demonstrates that a firm’s market orientation is improved by a healthy working relationship between product designers and service employees. Such a relationship motivates designers to use service-sourced information disseminated to them, enhancing both product and service characteristics of the new offering. The authors discuss how communication channels and information content affect the information use of product designers. Product designers value written information most. Information use does not relate to the frequency of receiving verbal or electronic information. Information about product ergonomics positively influences product designers’ perceptions of the information, whereas information on product aesthetics negatively influences their perceptions.

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Influence of customer participation on creating and sharing of new product value

This research applies an institutional arrangement perspective to develop an end-to-end model for the interaction between customers and upstream suppliers to develop a new product to understand how new product value is created and shared. The model is empirically tested by collecting primary data from 188 manufacturers across different industries. The research demonstrates that customer participation affects new product value creation by improving the effectiveness of the new product development process by enhancing information sharing and customer–supplier coordination and by increasing the level of customer and supplier specific investments in the product development effort. In addition, increasing the formalization of the customer participation process enhances both customer and supplier relationship-specific investments in the new product development process. The impact of customer participation on the customer's share of the new product value pie is more complex then is first apparent. Based on the dependence and equity perspectives the results suggest that exchange partners' power (relative dependence) positively influences a partner's ability to capture new product value, but this power is offset by a desire of exchange partners to ensure the distribution of value is “fair” and reflects each party's contribution to the value creation.

How do enhanced and unique features affect new product preference? The moderating role of product familiarity

Companies often introduce products with enhanced or unique features to compete with the dominant brands in the market. This paper examines the moderating role of product familiarity in consumer preferences of products with enhanced or unique features in two experimental studies. Study 1 (208 participants) operationalizes product familiarity at the product category level and Study 2 (168 participants) measures it at the individual level as one’s prior experience with the product. The findings of two experiments show that when consumers are unfamiliar with a product category, they prefer a product with enhanced features to one with unique features. In contrast, when consumers are experienced, they perceive a product with unique features more favorably than an enhanced one. Furthermore, this effect is due to consumer perceived differentiation of and performance uncertainty about new products with enhanced or unique features.

Toward a theory of repeat purchase drivers for consumer services

The marketing discipline’s knowledge about the drivers of service customers’ repeat purchase behavior is highly fragmented. This research attempts to overcome that fragmented state of knowledge by making major advances toward a theory of repeat purchase drivers for consumer services. Drawing on means–end theory, the authors develop a hierarchical classification scheme that organizes repeat purchase drivers into an integrative and comprehensive framework. They then identify drivers on the basis of 188 face-to-face laddering interviews in two countries (USA and Germany) and assess the drivers’ importance and interrelations through a national probability sample survey of 618 service customers. In addition to presenting an exhaustive and coherent set of hierarchical repeat-purchase drivers, the authors provide theoretical explanations for how and why drivers relate to one another and to repeat purchase behavior. This research also tests the boundary conditions of the proposed framework by accounting for different service types. In addition to its theoretical contribution, the framework provides companies with specific information about how to manage long-term customer relationships successfully.

From preventive to permissive checks: the changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century

The Malthusian “preventive check” mechanism has been well documented for pre-industrial England through evidence for a negative correlation between the marriage rate and the price of wheat. Other literature, however, speculates that the correlation was in fact positive from the early nineteenth century. This paper uses the cointegrated VAR model and recursive estimation techniques to document the changing relationship between nuptiality and the price of wheat from 1541 to 1965. The relationship is indeed positive from the early nineteenth century to the First World War. A simple theoretical model shows that this result is not in fact inconsistent with a stylised Malthusian mechanism, and can be understood within the context of an increasing dominance of shocks to aggregate demand rather than to aggregate supply.

Prototypicality advantages for pioneers over me-too brands: the role of evolving product designs

Prior empirical research suggests that consumers perceive pioneers as more prototypical (i.e., representative) of their product categories than me-too followers. This prototypicality advantage is believed to contribute to an enduring marketplace advantage for the pioneer. We extend research into pioneering prototypicality advantages by considering the ramifications of simultaneous product design (i.e., product attribute) evolutions. We hypothesize that the simultaneous evolution of product designs of both the pioneer and me-too will diminish the pioneer’s prototypicality advantage over the me-too, even though the me-too does not initiate the change. To test our hypotheses, we create an experimental environment consisting of four cells, each corresponding to a different marketplace scenario: a no-change condition; a simultaneous-evolution condition; a pioneer-updates-first condition; and a leapfrogging (i.e., me-too updates first) condition. The results suggest that simultaneous design evolutions can diminish the pioneer’s prototypicality advantage. As a result, me-too entry may be a more attractive strategy in the long-run than currently believed in product categories characterized by substantial design evolution.

Product intelligence: its conceptualization,measurement and impact on consumer satisfaction

In the last decade, companies have developed a large number of intelligent products. Due to the use of information technology, these products operate somewhat autonomously, cooperate with other products, or adapt to changing circumstances. Based on a literature review and interviews with practitioners, the present article conceptualizes product intelligence and describes a procedure to measure the construct. The article also explores the link of product intelligence to consumer satisfaction through the innovation attributes of relative advantage, compatibility, and complexity. The article considers practical and theoretical implications and identifies future research directions.

Weathering product-harm crises

To counter the negative effects of a product-harm crisis, brands hope to capitalize on their equity, and often use advertising as a communication device to regain customers’ lost trust. We study how consumer characteristics and advertising influence consumers’ first-purchase decisions for two affected brands of peanut butter following a severe Australian product-harm crisis. Both pre-crisis loyalty and familiarity are found to form an important buffer against the product-harm crisis, although this resilience decreases over time. Also heavy users tend to purchase the affected brands sooner, unless their usage rate decreased significantly during the crisis. Brand advertising was found to be effective for the stronger brand, but not for the weaker brand.

Low price signal default: an empirical investigation of its consequences

Low-price guarantees (LPG) signal the market position of a seller’s offer price and promise to compensate consumers in case that information is erroneous. In this research, we demonstrate that when retailers default on the information provided by an LPG, consumer perceptions of the retailer suffer, but the extent of the damage depends on the conditions associated with the default. On the basis of attribution theory, we posit that consumers may attribute default to the retailer’s opportunism but emphasize this attribution differently in various default conditions. Furthermore, we show that the restoration of consumer perceptions after a refund depends on consumers’ focus in terms of the signal itself. If they consider the protective, compensatory function of a low price signal, their post-refund outcomes are more favorable; when they focus on the informational function, these outcomes are less favorable. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

Harmonizing conflict in husband–wife purchase decision making: perceived fairness and spousal influence dynamics

To market important products to families successfully, salespeople must understand how couples behave in concert to resolve conflict across major decisions. The authors develop a model of spousal fairness and test it with a study of multi-period family purchase decision making. The results show that a spousal sense of fairness serves as a mechanism for contemporary couples to harmonize conflict over time in family decisions. Specifically, spouses’ perceived fairness mediates the relationship between spousal prior influence and spousal decision behavior in subsequent decisions. Spouses also consider their partner’s perceptions of fairness when taking action to restore fairness. Moreover, the effects of perceived fairness are moderated by spousal traits of empathy, egalitarianism, and empowerment in a gendered pattern.

Convergence (and divergence) in the biological standard of living in the USA, 1820–1900

Standard economic indicators suggest that the USA experienced long-run economic growth throughout the nineteenth century. However, biological indicators, including human stature, offer a different picture, rising early in the century, falling (on average) mid-century, and rising again at the end of the century. This pattern varied across geographical regions. Using a unique data set, consisting of mean adult stature by state, we test for convergence in stature among states in the nineteenth century. We find that during the period of declining mean stature (1820–1870), heights actually diverged. Later in the century (1870–1890) we find a type of “negative” convergence indicating that stature among states tended to converge to a new, lower steady state. Only towards the end of the century (1880–1900) do we find classic convergence behavior. We argue that the diversity of economic experiences across regions, including urbanization, industrialization, and transportation improvements, explain this pattern of divergence and then convergence.

Commitment to a friend,a service provider,or a service company—are they distinctions worth making?

In two studies, the authors examine three targets of commitment in service provider–consumer relationships and their effects on customer loyalty. The results indicate that service consumers distinguish between commitment to a service company, commitment to an individual in the role of service employee, and commitment to an individual outside of the role of service employee (e.g., a personal commitment such as a friendship). In addition, these three targets of commitment are hierarchically related and have differential effects on various customer responses. The results have implications for both customer relationship managers and researchers studying such relationships.

How to get lost customers back?

Most research in the field of customer relationship management has focused on keeping existing customers. However, some companies also systematically address lost customers and try to revive these relationships. This facet of customer relationship management has been largely neglected by academic research. Our study provides a theoretical discussion and an empirical analysis of factors driving the success of relationship revival activities. Drawing on equity theory, we find that the customer’s perceived interactional, procedural, and distributive justice with respect to revival activities positively affect his or her revival-specific satisfaction which in turn, has a strong impact on revival performance. Furthermore, revival performance depends on customer characteristics (variety seeking, involvement, age), and the overall customer satisfaction with the relationship.

Does innate consumer innovativeness relate to new product/service adoption behavior? The intervening role of social learning via vicarious innovativeness

Empirical studies provide an inconsistent picture of the relationship between an innovative personality predisposition (i.e., innate consumer innovativeness [ICI]) and innovative behavior (i.e., new product adoption behavior). Such inconsistencies suggest intervening variables that may mediate the relationship have not been considered. Using data from a panel of consumers (n = 296 in a cross-sectional phase, n = 147 in a matched, two-phase longitudinal analysis), we find that ICI does not directly influence adoption behavior but does so indirectly through two of three components of vicarious innovativeness (modeling and engagement in word of mouth but not exposure to advertising). Furthermore, despite the evidence that consumers’ decision processes differ for service versus product adoption, extant studies largely ignore the role of ICI in new service adoption. Our findings suggest that vicarious innovativeness plays a similar intervening role in service contexts. Finally, divergent operationalizations of adoption behavior (ownership, relative time of adoption) appear to perform equally well.

Organizational antecedents to and consequences of service business orientations in manufacturing companies

Although various manufacturing companies have developed into total solution providers, no research addresses their service orientations. Building on the literature on organizational service climate, this study explores the organizational parameters and service business orientations that explain relative product sales and service volume of manufacturing companies. Following an exploratory study involving in-depth interviews, the authors conducted an empirical survey of 137 companies in The Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark. The study assesses the effects of organizational parameters on the implementation of service business orientations and validates the important distinction between services in support of the client’s actions (SSC) and services in the support of the product (SSP). The findings demonstrate that services in support of the client’s action leverage relative product sales, while services in support of the product generate service volume. In addition to the main effects, the moderating effects of the organizational parameters are discussed.

The market value impact of indirect ties within technology alliances

Researchers have typically studied the relationship between technology alliances and market value from a direct tie or dyadic perspective. Yet any given technology alliance is typically embedded in a network of indirect ties created by the alliance partners’ relationships with other firms. We argue that whether an indirect tie enhances or detracts from the market value a firm creates in a technology alliance depends upon factors related to inter-firm competencies at both an alliance- and partner-level of analysis. Empirical analysis of abnormal stock returns reveals support for the hypothesized contingent relationship between indirect ties and value creation within technology alliances. Theoretically, the paper clarifies opposing perspectives in the literature regarding the performance implications of indirect ties and identifies market value as a hitherto unrecognized effect associated with this type of tie. Managerially, the findings improve marketers’ ability to leverage the complex interactions that occur between technology alliances in a value-creating manner.

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The quest for a fiscal rule: Italy, 1861–1998

The Italian fiscal history is characterised by a number of fiscal consolidations. In this study, we characterise fiscal policy in terms of non-linear deterministic processes. We find that government spending and taxes can be described as being non-linear trend stationary processes instead of unit roots. A long run equilibrium relationship—a non-linear co-trend—does exist between the two series, fulfilling the intertemporal government budget constraint. We interpret this result as evidence of a long run fiscal rule that different policy makers have adopted, putting public finance in balance.

The chain from customer satisfaction via word-of-mouth referrals to new customer acquisition

It has often been argued that word-of-mouth (WOM) can contribute significantly to a firm’s success in a variety of ways. Here, we analyze the functional linkage between customer satisfaction, WOM, and new customer acquisition. Using data from two empirical studies we conceptualize and test the direct, non-linear, and moderated relationship between satisfaction and WOM. We further explore the circumstances under which WOM leads to new customer acquisition using a logistic regression model. We do so for two groups (new customers and long-term customers) from the customer base of a large energy provider (n = 688), and for a random sample of B2B customers (n = 416) in the same market. Results indicate that the satisfaction-WOM link is non-linear and is moderated by several customer involvement dimensions. Based on our results, we demonstrate how the satisfaction-WOM-new customer acquisition link can enrich return on quality and satisfaction models. Further, we draw conclusions about how companies can make use of both the satisfaction-WOM and the WOM-new customer acquisition link for better allocating their marketing resources.