经济发展中制度创新的逻辑

本文从经济发展中制度创新所面临的实际问题出发，在界定和明确经济发展中制度创新若干基本概念的基础上，分析了已有经济发展理论和事实中的制度创新问题，并进一步深入探讨了市场经济的核心内涵是市场制度。继而分析出市场制度创新的逻辑要点以及我国市场制度创新的特殊性和基本要求。以期能为经济发展中的制度创新及相关研究提供一些基础性启发。     

Regional social capital: Embeddedness, innovation networks and regional economic development

Technology is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for regional economic development. Regional innovation networks transform technology into competitiveness of firms and thus contribute to economic development. Intangible assets, such as social capital, decide how effective regional innovation networks function. Differences in regional social capital thus help explain regional differences in economic development. Regional social capital originates from the embeddedness of firms in regional webs of social relations. The norms, values and customs of these networks facilitate collaboration for mutual benefit. As innovation is increasingly a network effort, embeddedness and social capital also help explain how and why networks of innovating companies are successful, as the case study of the Stimulus Cluster Scheme shows.     

The role of human capital and innovation in economic development: evidence from post-Malthusian Prussia

The effect of human capital on growth involves multiple channels. On the one hand, an increase in human capital directly affects economic growth by enhancing labor productivity in production. On the other hand, human capital is an important input into R&D and therefore increases labor productivity indirectly by accelerating technological change. In addition, different types of human capital such as basic and higher education or training-on-the-job might play different roles in both production and innovation activities. We merge individual data on valuable patents granted in Prussia in the late nineteenth-century with county-level data on literacy, craftsmanship, secondary schooling, and income tax revenues to explore the complex relationship between various types of human capital, innovation, and income. We find that the Second Industrial Revolution can be seen as a transition period when it comes to the role of human capital. As in the preceding First Industrial Revolution, “useful knowledge” embodied in master craftsmen was related to innovation, especially of independent inventors. As in the subsequent twentieth century, the quality of basic education was associated with both workers’ productivity and firms’ R&D processes. In a final step, we show that literacy had also a negative effect on fertility which increased with innovation. In general, our findings support the notion that the accumulation of basic human capital was crucial for the transition to modern economic growth.     

The long-run impact of human capital on innovation and economic development in the regions of Europe

ABSTRACT

Human capital is supposed to be an important factor for innovation and economic development. However, the long-run impact of human capital on current innovation and economic development is still a black box, in particular at the regional level. Therefore, this paper makes the link between the past and the present. Using a large new dataset on regional human capital and other factors in the 19^th and 20^th century, we find that past regional human capital is a key factor explaining current regional disparities in innovation and economic development.     

Invention, innovation, and economic evolution

This paper provides a synopsis of logic and adventure in the process of fundamental innovation. The contemporary viewpoint of R&D management would have us believe that innovation is a rational process subject to prediction, regulation, and control. The alternative viewpoint is advanced here that innovation is neither merely a mechanical nor solely a goal-driven process. In reality, innovative systems are inherently untidy systems. The most important clue to any possible uniformity in the behavior of such systems is to be found in their very multiformity. Thus, the process of innovation is first and foremost a self-organizing process. This theory, based on the author's work of the past several years in this area, has led to identification and explanation of several lawlike relationships in the origin of fundamental technical breakthroughs, transfer of technical knowledge, and long-term economic evolution. There are a number of important implications of these regularities for technology and science policy during 1980s and beyond. First, success in innovation critically depends upon pursuing several small-scale experimental projects at the same time. Thus popular attempts to avoid duplication in R&D activity constitute what is really a penny-wise but pound-foolish policy. Second, nothing is more important in the future than to promote greater decentralization in the conduct of R&D enterprise. Third, one way out of the current worldwide economic stagnation is to be found in the development of a few, already available, fundamental innovations such as those in the microelectronics, solar energy, and biotechnology fields rather than in the eternal search for more technical breakthroughs. Thus the need in the future is not so much for disproportionate increase in basic research in relation to technological development effort as it is for striking a congruence between various components of R&D activity.     

On the impact of innovation and inequality in economic growth

We present robust results on the empirical relationship among income inequality, innovation, and economic growth for a panel dataset of 74 countries over the period 1996–2014. We estimate pairwise causality tests to show that there is bidirectional causality between GDP per capita and R&D, while R&D causes the Gini index of income inequality, and it causes human capital. Allowing coefficients to be different across cross-sections of countries, we get in any case a pairwise bi-directionality. By dynamic panel data estimations, when regressing R&D on GDP per capita, we obtain a threshold value of 0.16% of R&D such that for values above it there is economic growth. While regressing R&D on the Gini index, we get a threshold of 0.10% of R&D above which, the income distribution begins to improve. Finally, we estimate a growth equation that depends on R&D, income inequality, and physical capital. We obtain two thresholds, one of 38.79 for the Gini (above which the economic growth decreases), and one of 0.06% for R&D such that above it, economic growth is rising.     

绿色经济制度体系--推进循环经济发展的制度创新

从本质上说，发展循环经济就是在生产、流通、消费、分配的每一个环节实现废弃物减量化、资源化、无害化，实际上就是废弃物资源的有效配置问题。基于此，本文以界定废弃物是资源为前提，从微观经济学角度，通过探讨废弃物资源有效配置机制，透析当今资源短缺和环境恶化的制度根源，寻求实现废弃物资源有效配置即发展循环经济的制度切入点——绿色经济制度体系，以期为循环经济的发展奠定经济学理论基础。     

Emerging patterns of complex technological innovation

Technological innovation is increasingly concerned with complex products and processes. The trend toward greater complexity is suggested by the fact that in 1970 complex technologies comprised 43% of the 30 most valuable world goods exports, but by 1996 complex technologies represented 84% of those goods. These technologies are innovated by self-organizing networks. Networks are those linked organizations that create, acquire, and integrate the diverse knowledge and skills required to innovate complex technologies. Accessing tacit knowledge (i.e., experienced-based, unwritten know-how) and integrating it with codified knowledge is a particular strength of many networks. Self-organization refers to the capacity networks have for reordering themselves into more complex structures (e.g., replacing individual managers with management teams), and for using more complex processes (e.g., evolving strategies) without centralized, detailed managerial guidance. Case studies of the innovation pathways traced by six complex technologies indicate that innovations can be grouped into three quite distinct patterns. Transformation: the launching of a new trajectory by a new coevolving network and technology. Normal: the coevolution of an established network and technology along an established trajectory. Transition: the coevolutionary movement to a new trajectory by an established network and technology. Policy makers and managers face the greatest challenge during those periods of movement from one innovation trajectory to another. These are periods of turbulence; they are the embodiment of Schumpeter's “gales of creative destruction.” This paper investigates how, in six case studies, core capabilities, complementary assets, organizational learning, path dependencies, and the selection environment varied among the innovation patterns. The paper builds on work reported in a recent book by the authors entitled: The Complexity Challenge: Technological Innovation for the 21st Century, Pinter, London, 1999.     

The role of innovation and quality change in Japanese economic growth

This paper explores the use of time series data to isolate quality change in the Japanese economy using a hedonic procedure. We argue that the traditional approach to hedonic estimation based upon panel data sets of different brands in a given product area is extremely resource intensive and, thus, unlikely to be adopted by official statistical bodies outside of key areas, such as computers. This paper adopts a “top-down” approach to see whether more traditional measures of technical change, such as patents, can be used to separate pure inflation from quality change. If this is possible, it offers a much simpler route to estimate the role of quality change in economic growth and performance. In practice, we extend the analysis not only to include patents, but other forms of intellectual property that might reflect technology and attribute changes, such as designs, utility models and trademarks. We begin by taking a longer-term historical perspective, exploring the development of indigenous inventive capacity in Japan during the early years when R&D data are not available. It is possible to show that the rise in utility models pre-dates the main growth in patenting activity, suggesting the development in more low-level indigenous creative work prior to higher level inventive activity. The principal aim of this paper, however, is to demonstrate that it is possible to develop robust models to explain changes in the producer price index in Japan, which can then be used to re-examine Japanese growth performance over the period from about 1960. If the official Japanese statistical body has fully accounted for quality change in the price indices (i.e. produced fully quality-constant price deflators), then the official estimates of growth will be correct. However, we provide strong evidence that this is not the case. Changes in quality, proxied by the IP variables, are important determinants of prices in Japan over the period 1960 to 1995 as a whole. Indeed, we provide evidence that the true rate of growth of the Japanese economy, taking into account the rate of quality change, is significantly higher than that suggested in official statistics.     

Rethinking economic development

I provide a summary, reflection and assessment of the current state of economic development in both the policy and academic worlds. In terms of development policy, currently, the primary focus is on policy interventions, namely, foreign aid, aimed at fixing the “deficiencies” of developing countries. Academic research also has a similar focus, except with an emphasis in rigorous evaluation of interventions to estimate causal effects. A standard set of versatile quantitative tools is used, e.g., experimental and quasi‐experimental methods, which can be easily applied in a range of settings to estimate the causal effects of policies, which are typically presumed to be similar across contexts. In this article, I take a step back and ask whether the current practices are the best that we can do. Are foreign aid and policy interventions the best options we have for poverty alleviation? What else can be done? Is our current research strategy, characterized by rigorous but a lack of context‐specific analysis, the best method of analysis? Is there a role for other research methods, for a deeper understanding of the local context and for more collaboration with local scholars?     

Adam Smith's theory of economic history and economic development

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to show that Smith has a theory of economic history grounded in a politico-economic modeling (as well as a sort of economic theoretical modeling). In terms of the politico-economic approach, in the Wealth of Nations (Book III.ii–iv) Smith tried to offer a systematic account of economic development from feudalism to capitalism in Europe. These lead to suggest that the seeming internal inconsistency between the natural and the actual courses of progress in Book III may be resolved, and that Smith may be treated as a precursor of Douglass North, who stressed an inextricable link between the polity and the economy in economic history.     

Data literacy in economic development

In economic development and other economics electives, students regularly encounter economic measures of absolute and relative deprivation, from poverty measures like the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index to measures of distribution like the Gini index. By “doing economics,” students practice applying economic measurement to real-world data and develop more general data literacy. The author proposes a series of exercises starting with stylized 10-household economies, proceeding to nationally representative cross-sectional surveys using MS Excel or Google Spreadsheets, and culminating in students applying their acquired data literacy to a team project. The data sources are easily tailored to alternative household surveys in low- and middle-income countries that include the required variables. Students learn data literacy through recognizing the properties of rectangular data, visualizing data appropriately, and creating aggregate economic measures.     

Human capital and economic development

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship between TFP growth and schooling accumulation. The model fits the data on country populations, per capita incomes, human capital, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy and conditional life expectancy.     

Ethnic diversity and economic development

This paper analyzes the role that different indices and dimensions of ethnicity play in the process of economic development. Firstly, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of alternative data sources for the construction of indices of religious and ethnic heterogeneity. Secondly, we compare the index of fractionalization and the index of polarization. We argue that an index of the family of discrete polarization measures is the adequate indicator to measure potential conflict. We find that ethnic (religious) polarization has a large and negative effect on economic development through the reduction of investment and the increase of government consumption and the probability of a civil conflict.     

Frontiers and sustainable economic development

Exploiting new resource “frontiers,” such as agricultural land and mineral reserves, is a fundamental feature of economic development in poor economies. Yet frontier-based development is symptomatic of a pattern of economy-wide resource exploitation in developing economies that: (a) generates little additional economic rents, and (b) what rents are generated are not being reinvested in other sectors. Such development is inherently unsustainable. The following paper explains this phenomenon, and provides evidence that long-run expansion of agricultural land and oil and natural gas proved reserves across poor economies is associated with lower levels of real income per capita. The paper proposes a frontier expansion hypothesis to explain why the structural economic dependence of these economies on frontier land expansion and resource exploitation is not conducive to sustained long-run growth. The key to sustainable economic development in poor economies will be improving the economic integration between frontier and other sectors of the economy, targeting policies to improved resource management in frontier areas and overcoming problems of corruption and rent-seeking in resource sectors.      

European influence and economic development

The development accounting literature identifies political institutions as fundamental development determinants. Forms of government or executive constraints are thought to shape economic institutions (e.g., property rights) that provide necessary incentives for economic growth. One strand of the literature suggests that European influence is a crucial economic development determinant, presumably through the adoption of European institutions. But how exactly did European influence in the distant past induce positive economic outcomes today? Previous approaches rely on “language,” “settler mortality,” “legal origins” or the “number of European settlers” as indirect proxies of European influence. We propose a direct and quantifiable mechanism: the adoption of European constitutional features. We construct a dataset of all constitutional dimensions from 1800–2008 for all countries and find that nations experience growth accelerations after adopting features of European constitutions. The growth effects are influenced (negatively) by periods of political turmoil, but they are independent of colonial backgrounds. These results show how European influence may have fostered growth, and they imply that countries were able to overcome adverse initial conditions over the last 200 years by adopting European constitutional features. Our constitutional dataset is sufficiently detailed to identify the specific dimensions of European constitutions that matter most for development: legislative rules and specific provisions that curtail executive powers.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.