What can we learn from Switzerland?

The collapse of Swissair will be a good litmus test for what is advanced here. Although it is too soon to tell at the time of writing (October 2001) it would be extremely uncharacteristic for the company to be rescued with public funds, despite its hugely symbolic nature as an erstwhile source of national pride.     

Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: what do we learn from long-horizon regressions?

The use of a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions is illustrated by analysing the long-horizon predictability of four major exchange rates, and the findings are reconciled with those of an earlier study by Mark ( 1995 ). While there is some evidence of exchange rate predictability, contrary to earlier studies, no evidence is found of higher predictability at longer horizons. Additional evidence is presented that the linear VEC model framework underlying the empirical study is likely to be misspecified, and that the methodology for constructing bootstrap p-values for long-horizon regression tests may be fundamentally flawed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.     

IR and HR perspectives on workplace conflict: What can each learn from the other?

This paper presents an analysis of industrial relations (IR) and human resource (HR) perspectives on conflict in the employment relationship. While both perspectives recognize the existence of employment relationship conflict, IR's premises about such conflict are that it stems from an employer–employee power imbalance, is enduring, often requires institutional interventions in the forms of unionism and legislation to correct the power imbalance, and can be constructive even when the conflict is dealt with in adversarial, nonproblem-solving fashion. HR's premises about employment relationship conflict, by contrast, are that such conflict stems from poor management, can be partially reduced by organizational and workplace innovations that build an employer–employee unity of interests, can be still further reduced through cooperative, mutual gains-oriented problem-solving techniques, and, as a consequence of improved management, will fade from the employment scene. These premises are then examined in relation to case and empirical evidence on grievance procedures, employment discrimination, and employee involvement/participation programs. The analysis finds some support for, but also important limitations on, each of these key perspectives. Recommendations are offered to enable members of the IR and HR communities to incorporate into their respective domains key lessons from each other's dominant perspective on employment relationship conflict.     

Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?

In this study, we provide both theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of household loan delinquency for home ownership, credit card and auto loans for the U.S. states in a panel framework over a period from 2003 through 2017. In particular, we examine the impact of consumer sentiments on loan delinquency rates. We show that improved current consumer sentiment significantly induce lower mortgage, credit card and automobile loan defaults in the American states subdivided into four different regions. We also find that the higher overall and expected consumer sentiment raise loan delinquencies. Implicit in this finding is the apparently excessive and inappropriate expansion of loans in the U.S. economy in the face of consumers’ optimism, which in turn, provides an intuitive understanding of the circumstances that could precede a depression or outbreak of anomalies in the financial sector. Our general findings further exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and mostly adverse effect of per capita income on mortgage and automobile loan delinquency rates. The results provide some compelling evidence with regard to the effect of consumer confidence on household credit delinquency rates across various states in the U.S. and are robust to alternative measures of income and mortgage rates.     

What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?

We analyse the forecasting power of different monetary aggregates and credit variables for US GDP. Special attention is paid to the influence of the recent financial market crisis. For that purpose, in the first step we use a three-variable single-equation framework with real GDP, an interest rate spread and a monetary or credit variable, in forecasting horizons of one to eight quarters. This first stage thus serves to pre-select the variables with the highest forecasting content. In a second step, we use the selected monetary and credit variables within different VAR models, and compare their forecasting properties against a benchmark VAR model with GDP and the term spread (and univariate AR models). Our findings suggest that narrow monetary aggregates, as well as different credit variables, comprise useful predictive information for economic dynamics beyond that contained in the term spread. However, this finding only holds true in a sample that includes the most recent financial crisis. Looking forward, an open question is whether this change in the relationship between money, credit, the term spread and economic activity has been the result of a permanent structural break or whether we might return to the previous relationships.     

After the merger: now what?

The advantages of undertaking a linkage strategy are compelling; as more hospitals consider such, the material manager should be poised to capitalize upon strategic advantages afforded by such an occurrence and implement them. The very actions undertaken by this vital position within the organization could very easily determine the degree of success realized by a linkage strategy.     

If ‘money matters’, what about the monetary base?

Crucial to the debates on monetarism is the money aggregate relevant to its key propositions, in particular those that relate to the determination of nominal national income and inflation. In his influential work on ‘market monetarism’, Scott Sumner has accorded a privileged position to the monetary base in the key monetarist propositions. This article argues that, on the contrary, in a modern economy the role of cash is so small, as well as so clandestine, that the monetary base does not play any direct role in the determination of national income and inflation.     

Industrial relations and the management of whistleblowing after the Francis report: what can be learned from the evidence?

This article focuses on the results obtained from the quantitative surveys conducted for the independent review into creating an open and honest report culture in the NHS. It examines the management of whistleblowing and discusses the research findings in the light of the recommendations made by Sir Robert Francis QC in his ‘Freedom to Speak Up’ report published in February 2015. The authors believe that the principles and actions set out in this report and the detailed Annexe describing various aspects of good practice are generally applicable in both the public and private sectors. In so far as it provides evidence that those who follow their employer's procedure when raising a concern have better outcomes than others, the authors conclude that the quantitative research for Francis is consistent with other findings that power resources and institutional arrangements can be critical to the whistleblowing process.     

50 Years of research on organizing the purchasing function: Do we need any more?

Research on organizing the purchasing function has seen the rise and fall of different topics, for example the buying centre. And although the increasingly strategic role of purchasing still possesses practical challenges to its effective organizational setup, one has to question whether, after 50 years, there really is a need for more research in this specific domain.As starting point to answer the question, 212 articles published since 1962 are reviewed to provide a comprehensive overview of existing insights. Via content analysis, we inductively establish 12 specific research areas dealing with distinct aspects of purchasing organization.Then the need for further research is assessed by combining those findings with relevant business trends that induce practical challenges in each research area and, consequently, also the need for future research. We conclude that almost all research areas will remain relevant in the future, but need an adjustment of their focus.     

Forecasting expected shortfall: Should we use a multivariate model for stock market factors?

Is univariate or multivariate modeling more effective when forecasting the market risk of stock portfolios? We examine this question in the context of forecasting the one-week-ahead expected shortfall of a stock portfolio based on its exposure to the Fama–French and momentum factors. Applying extensive tests and comparisons, we find that in most cases there are no statistically significant differences between the forecasting accuracy of the two approaches. This result suggests that univariate models, which are more parsimonious and simpler to implement than multivariate factor-based models, can be used to forecast the downside risk of equity portfolios without losses in precision.     

How can big data enhance the timeliness of official statistics?: The case of the U.S. consumer price index

The daily consumer price index (CPI) produced by the Billion Prices Project (BPP CPI) offers a glimpse of the direction taken by consumer price inflation in real time. This is in contrast to the official U.S. CPI, which is compiled monthly and released with an average of a three-week delay following the end of the reference month. A recent body of research contended that the movements of online prices are representative of those of offline retail prices, making the BPP CPI a natural candidate for accurately improving the timeliness of the official CPI. We assess the predictive content of the BPP CPI using a variety of MIDAS models that accommodate data sampled at different frequencies. These models generate estimates that remain robust to the variety of time periods considered and, by the standard of the existing literature, contribute to a significant upgrade in the forecast accuracy of official consumer price inflation figures. The paper then sketches the broad implications of BPP CPI for the consumer price statistics maintained by national statistics offices and discusses how the proposed improvement in the timeliness of the official CPI fits in this perspective.