The J-Curve and Japan–China commodity trade

Previous studies that have tested the J-Curve phenomenon for Japan or China employed either aggregate trade data between each country and the rest of the world, or aggregate bilateral data between two trade partners. These studies have found no support for the J-Curve. Suspecting that their models could suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate bilateral trade flows between the two countries and examine trade by 73 industries. We find evidence of the J-Curve phenomenon in 24 industries, a unique finding for trade between Japan and China.     

An asymmetric and DCC analysis of two stock markets returns＇ volatility： An evidence study on the Hong Kong and Japan＇s stock markets

This paper discusses the model construction and the association between the Hong Kong and the Japanese stock markets. The data period is from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2005. This paper also utilizes student＇s t distribution to analyze the proposed model. The empirical results show that the bivariate asymmetric-GARCH （1, 2） model with a dynamic conditional correlation （DCC） seemed to be appropriate in evaluating the relationship between them. The empirical result also indicates a positive relation between the Hong Kong and the Japanese stock markets returns. The average estimation value of DCC coefficient equals to 0.5196, which implies that these two stock markets＇ return volatility had synchronized influence on each other. In addition, the empirical results also show that the Hong Kong and the Japanese stock markets have an asymmetrical effect. Based on the idea of the good and bad news, the explanatory ability of proposed model is better than the model of the bivariate GARCH with a DCC.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

The takeover and selection effects of foreign-owned establishments: an analysis using linked employer–employee data

We provide the first estimates of the effect of foreign ownership on wages in Germany, controlling for the observed and unobserved characteristics of workers and plants. We also test whether the wage gains from joining a foreign-owned firm are subsequently lost when leaving that firm, and we examine whether wage gains vary across the sample. We find large selection effects in terms of worker and plant components of wages. Once the selection effect is taken into account, the takeover effect is small and in some cases insignificantly different from zero.

The dynamics of capital assets in the economy of the Russian Federation over the post-Soviet period (1992–2015)

The authors have considered methods for an alternative assessment of the dynamics of capital assets over 1992–2015, which fundamentally differ from those employed by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), and have presented the results obtained on their basis. Losses of fixed assets incurred by the economy over this period in value terms have also been estimated. The reasons for the current crisis of the Russian economy have been shown in connection with the exhaustion of the Soviet material heritage and ways of handling the crisis have been proposed based on the reduction in household consumption and sharp increase in the share of accumulation and savings.     

The Empirical Study on Affecting Factors of Cultivated Land Productivity in Shandong Province

China is a country with a huge population but scarce cultivated land. The productivity of cultivated land must be improved to meet the increasing domestic demand for agricultural products. Taking Shandong as the example and utilizing X2D production function, the paper furthers the study on affecting factors of cultivated land productivity. Empirical study finds that technology progress especially that of land-saving bio-chemical technological improvement is the most important factor to improve land productivity.     

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979–2001)

This study estimates and analyzes provincial productivity growth in China for the period 1979–2001. The Malmquist Index approach allows us to decompose productivity growth into two components, technological progress and efficiency change. Considerable productivity growth was found for most of the data period, but it was accomplished mainly through technological progress rather than efficiency improvement. Although China's capital stock has accumulated at record speed in recent years, our findings show that TFP growth slowed down significantly during 1995–2001. The study thus raises serious questions about whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.     

‘The capital market is dead’: the difficult birth of index-linked gilts in the UK

This article describes how and why the Thatcher government introduced index-linked gilts in 1981. It outlines the earlier deliberations by the monetary authorities during the 1950s and 1960s on how an indexed government security might help or hinder the fight against inflation. Although these discussions came to nothing, rising inflation and increasing difficulties with managing the gilt-edged market during the 1970s revived interest in the indexation of government securities. Both the Page Commission in 1974 and the Wilson Report in 1980 recommended the introduction of inflation-indexed securities, but the election of the Conservative government in 1979 gave real momentum to their possible issuance. Although Margaret Thatcher was initially opposed to indexation, Nigel Lawson galvanized the Treasury and the Bank of England to work on a scheme to issue index-linked gilts as a means of improving economic performance. The article traces the contentious series of discussions surrounding the possible effects of index-linked gilts on government debt interest costs, on monetary policy and monetary targets, and on the possible ‘crowding out’ of corporate bonds and equities which could not offer a guaranteed real return. Despite teething problems, the introduction of inflation-linked bonds in the UK was deemed a success.     

The nexus of finance and GDP growth in Japan: Do real interest rates matter?

This study empirically investigates whether real interest rates are associated with a stronger or weaker finance–growth relationship in the Japanese economy, where the relationships between banks and firms are characterized by main bank relationships and keirestu as well as a government implemented low interest rate policies since the early 1990s. Several econometric models are used to obtain empirical robustness. This study confirms the substantial effects of real interest rates on finance–growth relationships in Japan. In the regime with higher (lower) real interest rates, the banking system has significantly positive (adverse) effects on output growth. Empirical evidence exists that a low interest rate policy is an important hindrance to the ability of the banking system to impact economic growth in Japan.     

The Response of Corporate Strategy to Competitive Challenges: The Predicament of Australian Mutual Insurers 1970–2000

The internal struggles faced by insurers as they adjusted their organisational structures to cope with new competitive challenges that emerged in the 1980s provide insights into the organisational learning process. Progression was not smooth or linear. It included a degree of experimentation and introspection. A dynamic capabilities framework is used to analyse the ability of a large long-established insurer to adapt to the emerging financial market environment. Internal change routines were not capable of achieving the degree of reorganisation needed. The disruption to business that followed contributed to poor performance outcomes throughout the 1980s and early 1990s.     

Effects of state ownership on companies’ capital structure and profitability: Estimation analysis before and after the Lehman shock

This paper investigates the capital structure and profitability of the companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HASE) in Vietnam by estimating their debt ratios and return rates using the three-stage least squares method applied to the 2006–2011 samples of 435 listed companies. The estimation results show that first, the capital structures of the listed companies matched the features of standardized corporate financing theories better than those of small- and medium-sized Vietnamese enterprises. Second, weak corporate governance due to insufficient monitoring by creditor led the listed companies to borrow excessively in the periods before and after the boom. Third, the state-controlled companies listed on the HOSE are likely to have an advantage over other companies in accessing loans and earning profits, even after the boom period. Fourth, while foreign-affiliated companies were not substantially more profitable during the boom period, they were more profitable in the period after the boom because of better production technology and management. These findings suggest that reforming the Vietnamese market requires the development of a system that ensures information transparency and independent corporate governance, enhances financial openness, and increases the privatization of state-owned companies, including those in the banking sector.     

The U.S.–China trade war: Tariff data and general equilibrium analysis

The current trade war between the United States and China is unprecedented in modern history. This study introduces a database of tariff increases resulting from the trade war and quantifies the impacts using the canonical GTAPinGAMS model calibrated to the recently released GTAP version 10 accounts. We find that the remaining tariff increases as of March 2020 after the phase one trade deal decrease welfare in China by 1.7% and welfare in the United States by 0.2%. Impacts on sectoral revenue are reported for both countries. China's exports to and imports from the United States are reduced by 52.3% and 49.3%. The trade flow between the United States and China will be diverted to their major trade partners resulting in higher welfare in those countries, including many Asian countries. The estimated impacts are robust to using alternative trade elasticities and are amplified in the absence of the phase one tariff reductions.     

Building an Entrepreneurial Economy: The Case of Korea 1998–2005

Abstract

This paper examines how entrepreneurship takes place in an economy where traditional structural settings are not favorable to entrepreneurial activities. Specifically, it investigates the case of Korea during 1998–2005, when the national economy experienced fairly dramatic upsurge of start-ups and related changes. The paper argues that a national economy may achieve significant structural changes when diverse conditions are in place, including not only intentional efforts, e.g. governmental policies, but factors of serendipity triggering potential disruption to the economy, e.g. an external shock such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997. During the observation period, Korea went through notable changes in terms of entrepreneurship. Although limited, the Korean economy looks at possibilities of having small and medium-sized companies co-evolve with large ones such as chaebols.     

Current Account and Fiscal Policy in Japan: 1885–1991

This paper explores the empirical relationship between the current account balance and macroeconomic series for the Japanese economy over the years 1885–1991. The long-run equilibrium depends on which series (public debt or budget deficits) affects assets relative to a capital stock rate. Departing from the Ricardian Equivalence structure (no bequest motives), fiscal policy in Japan is shown to be more related to the current account when policy is introduced by shifts in tax revenues rather than by changes in national debt.     

Colonial immigrant literacy: An economic analysis of Pennsylvania-German evidence, 1727–1775

The literacy of over 23,000 immigrants is compared to the literacy of established American and European populations to assess the contribution of immigrants to the general superiority of colonial literacy vis-à-vis the rest of Europe. The nature of the positive self-selection of literate individuals into the transatlantic migration stream is explored using regression techniques and generation-specific controls. The estimated changes in the propensity of literates to migrate over the life cycle are explained by the changing nature of investment in general versus specific human capital over the life cycle.     

Exploring the effects of capital mobility on the saving–investment nexus: evidence from Icelandic historical data

We explore the effects of capital mobility on the relationship between saving and investment using historical data for Iceland. First, we analyse the saving–investment (S-I) correlation for the period of restricted capital mobility using data from 1960 and 1994. We then add a period of free capital mobility between 1994 and 2008 and estimate the correlation for the period 1960–2008. Finally, we extend our analysis to the 2008 to 2016 period, when capital controls were imposed in response to the crisis. Institutions matter: We find institutional changes, in particular, Iceland’s entry into the European Single Market in 1994, coincided with a fall in the long-run correlation between saving and investment. However, the correlation weakens further when we include the post-crisis regime of capital controls, suggesting a weaker relationship between savings and investment in this regime. We discuss the possible reasons for this pattern and also the implications of our findings for post-crisis policy in small open economies.     

The macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s evolving QE programme: a model-based analysis

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programme in its initial version and subsequent modifications under the lens of a dynamic macroeconomic model, which includes assets of different types and maturity, and explicitly introduces asset purchases of long-term bonds (held by euro area and non-euro area residents) by the central bank. With imperfect substitutability between asset classes, portfolio rebalancing in the context of quantitative easing (QE) affects bond yields, stock prices, the exchange rate and the private sector’s saving decision. QE as announced in January 2015 generates 0.4% effective euro depreciation and raises real GDP in the euro area by 0.2% and prices by 0.3% by 2017 in the model. The subsequent extensions of the QE programme (extension in time and increase in volume) more than double the medium-term output and inflation effects according to the simulations.     

Deflation,Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880–1914 Period

In this paper we examine the sources and impact of deflation on the growth experiences of the four dominant countries on the gold standard in the period 1880–1913: the United States, The United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation, (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard/Quah model which decomposes the behaviour of prices, output and the money stock into the impact of shocks such as a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, and domestic demand shocks including a shock to the domestic gold stock. Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that output was mainly supply driven and that money was neutral even when country specific gold stocks are included. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation.     

The quantity–quality trade-off related to investment in healthy human capital: New evidence from the implementation of the “selective two-child policy” in China

Using data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), and employing the “selective two-child policy” as a quasi-natural experiment, this study provides empirical evidence of Becker’s quantity-quality tradeoff theory. We find that the selective two-child policy reduced households’ investment in health insurance for their first-child. The proportion of participated families and the amount invested in health insurance declined significantly among families in which one spouse was an only child. The reduction in investment in health insurance was more substantial when the first-child was a girl and when the first-child was younger. One likely mechanism was the wage penalty for motherhood. The relaxed birth policy led to a significant reduction in women’s income. As a result, households’ financial resources became more limited, and their budgets became tighter, leading to reductions in investments in the health of first-child.