Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

索赔特征对保险理赔(诉讼)额影响的实证分析——基于交强险人身伤害判决数据

面对日益增多的保险理赔(诉讼),亟需加强索赔原因及索赔特征对法院判决结果的影响研究.本文通过对北京市大兴区人民法院2007年1月至2010年8月涉及人身伤害的交强险判决案例进行回归分析,发现:索赔原因与索赔人损失大小、就业状况、法律规定的赔偿上限有关;索赔人在交通事故中承担的过错责任与其性别、医疗费支出状况、是否死亡有...     

财险公司未决赔款准备金波动风险及其防范对策

未决赔款准备金作为财险公司最大的负债项目之一,通过不断提高数据的真实性与有效性,加强未决赔款准备金的波动风险的管理,有利于我国财险公司与财险行业的稳健经营与持续发展。未决赔款准备金波动风险产生的主要原因有数据的可靠性、精算评估方法的波动性以及宏观管理因素与经营环境的变化。通过切实提高管理水平、提升公司的精算技术、加强精细化经营理念的宣导以及加强非寿险行业的精算标准建设,将能有效地防范未决赔款准备金波动风险。     

The effect of accounting firm size and member rank on professionalism

The relationship between the number of employees in a firm, their rank, and the level of professionalism among firm members is evaluated in 19 accounting firms, involving 325 accountants engaged in public practice. Professionalism is measured using five individual traits plus a composite. Results indicate that one trait (i.e. a belief that the profession provides a service to society) and the composite were inversely related to firm size. Rank or position in the firm hierarchy demonstrated an even stronger, independent effect on three professionalism traits and the composite, with higher member rank associated with higher levels of professionalism. Issues related to the future study of professionalism among accountants are discussed.     

中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证研究

中国社会已步入一个历史性的风险高度累积的发展阶段,在这样的环境中,以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业是否有足够的损失赔付能力就成为一个不能不考虑的重要问题。本文基于Cummins,Doherty和Anita(2002)的保险赔付能力度量模型,引入1998年～2007年中国保险业经营数据,在改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,对2007年年末时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家保险公司以及全行业整体巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,在800亿到2000亿元的巨灾损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付效率在68.36%以上,全行业巨灾赔付能力缺口巨大,且损失幅度越大短缺的幅度越大。本文认为,造成这种赔付能力短缺的主要原因在于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后。     

ABIS环境文件的异地备份

ABIS作为一个能够全面处理各项柜面业务的计算机综合应用系统,目前正逐步在中国农业银行全国范围内推广运用。ABIS的前台可以分为两部分:一是程序文件部分,一是环境文件部分。程序文件具有共性,全省乃至全国营业网点的程序文件都是统一的。没有程序文件的共性,就无法实现全国营     

核保核赔管理系统的设计与实现

核保核赔环节是保险公司业务经营风险控制最主要的环节之一。核保是业务经营的入口关,核赔是业务经营的出口关。控制和化解核保核赔环节的风险,是保险公司实现稳健经营的关键所在。建立由总公司统一管理的核保核赔集中管理体系,将大大加强保险公司总部的管理控制能力。一家全国     

The technology of benefits outsourcing: helping employees help themselves

The exponential growth of health plan offerings and increased use of defined contribution retirement plans has caused a fundamental shift in the way that benefits management is done. Specifically, the authors point out that we are moving into an era of "self-service" in employee benefits, with employees often taking the role of management of their own benefits through use of technology. Outsourcing benefits management through the use of technology has meant the role of HR departments has shifted from personnel administrators to strategic business partners. By outsourcing administrative functions and maximizing the power of new interactive technology, human resource departments are able to focus on the strategic needs of the company to adapt to the challenges of the future.     

金融信息安全与等级保护

2007年3月29日，国内金融科技界同仁和业界专家学者数十人，齐聚“2007金融行业信息安全研讨会暨中国长城资产管理公司等级保护实践报告会”，听取了中国长城资产管理公司等级保护成功案例介绍，并进行了广泛交流。会上，印象最深刻的莫过于中国长城资产管理公司信息技术部王代潮总经理的“基于等级保护的信息保障体系建设情况汇报”。     

文件传输操作中的风险及实践分析

FTP能够胜任吗？ 企业一般认为FTP协议是一种便利的数据移动解决方案，免费而且到处可得。自从上世纪70年代初出现以来，FTP协议越来越受到欢迎。     

Credit stimulus and corporate excess employees

This study examines how the large and unexpected Chinese credit stimulus in 2008 affects firms' labor decision. Using a large sample of industrial firms, we find that state-owned enterprises tend to hire more employment than their counterparts after the credit stimulus. Mechanism analysis shows that the credit stimulus package is followed by lower financing costs and more bank loans for the state-owned enterprises, enhancing the degree of their excess employment compared with their counterparts. Moderating effect tests suggest that the overemployment effect is stronger in provinces with a high unemployment level, where the political leaders have stronger promotion incentives, in industries that are selected as the key stimulating industry, and in provinces with higher bank competition level, but weaker in provinces with higher marketization level. Finally, we find that the firm's overemployment caused by the credit stimulus plans decreases firm labor productivity. Overall, our findings shed light on how credit policy influence firms' labor decision and offer important implications for regulators.     

Optimal investment and contingent claim valuation in illiquid markets

This paper extends basic results on arbitrage bounds and attainable claims to illiquid markets and general swap contracts where both claims and premiums may have multiple payout dates. Explicit consideration of swap contracts is essential in illiquid markets where the valuation of swaps cannot be reduced to the valuation of cumulative claims at maturity. We establish the existence of optimal trading strategies and the lower semicontinuity of the optimal value of optimal investment under conditions that extend the no-arbitrage condition in the classical linear market model. All results are derived with the “direct method” without resorting to duality arguments.     

Ruin under stochastic dependence between premium and claim arrivals

We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramér–Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a model exhibits a stochastic dependence between the aggregate premium and claim amount processes. An explicit expression for the ruin probability is obtained when the claim and premium sizes are exponentially distributed.     

Longitudinal modeling of insurance claim counts using jitters

Modeling insurance claim counts is a critical component in the ratemaking process for property and casualty insurance. This article explores the usefulness of copulas to model the number of insurance claims for an individual policyholder within a longitudinal context. To address the limitations of copulas commonly attributed to multivariate discrete data, we adopt a ‘jittering’ method to the claim counts which has the effect of continuitizing the data. Elliptical copulas are proposed to accommodate the intertemporal nature of the ‘jittered’ claim counts and the unobservable subject-specific heterogeneity on the frequency of claims. Observable subject-specific effects are accounted in the model by using available covariate information through a regression model. The predictive distribution together with the corresponding credibility of claim frequency can be derived from the model for ratemaking and risk classification purposes. For empirical illustration, we analyze an unbalanced longitudinal dataset of claim counts observed from a portfolio of automobile insurance policies of a general insurer in Singapore. We further establish the validity of the calibrated copula model, and demonstrate that the copula with ‘jittering’ method outperforms standard count regression models.     

A contingent claim analysis of closed-end fund premia

We estimate contingent claims that replicate monthly net asset value (NAV) payoffs from closed-end funds. A claim's theoretical value is obtained by martingale pricing methods. The resulting net present value (NPVS) sequence is the theoretical premia sequence that is compared to the actual market premia sequence. The theoretical premia, like actual premia, are uncorrelated with NAV returns and are positively autocorrelated due to autocorrelation in the pricing information. However, there is poor correspondence between the theoretical and actual premia that seems due to the market's systematic errors in estimating a fund's management value. Risky arbitrage may be available to insiders.     

Account-based plans curb costs and engage employees

A growing number of organizations are combining consumer-driven health plans with account-based approaches in order to limit health benefit costs, reinforce key consumerist messages and provide meaningful benefits to both actives and retirees. This article describes how account-based approaches work and can be used to motivate employees to invest in their health today and salt away funds for tomorrow. The author describes what employers can do to ensure that consumer-driven health plans and account-based approaches help employees accomplish their goals.     

The influence of remuneration on the behavior of hospital employees in Brazil

The study aimed to analyze the employee's perception of the remuneration systems in two major hospitals in Brazil, one managed by the government and the other by private investors. The sample considered 109 respondents, out of which 54 were from the private hospital and 55 from the public hospital. After data collection on the sample population, perception of remuneration was associated with occupation, gender, age and experience, as suggested by the Upper Echelons Theory. The results show that remuneration is viewed as an instrument of control and behavior or a learning-inducing mechanism; however, the perceptions of employees working in the health area and administrative area were different. These findings show that the influence of fixed pay is different not only for the employees of both areas, but also in relation to the public and private hospital management. It was found that gender is not a determinant factor of behavior and that there were no differences between younger and older employees as well as between more experienced and less experienced employees with respect to the effect of remuneration on behavior. There were no differences in relation to the type of hospital either. In general, the results emphasize the importance of remuneration as an instrument of control and management, either in the context of public or private organizations.