Foreign investors in Taiwan: Their roles and government perspectives

This article describes the financial liberalization process in Taiwan and evaluates the effects of foreign institutional investors on Taiwan's stock market. Gradual liberalization allowed Taiwan to reap the benefits while reducing the harmful impacts of foreign participation during the Asian financial crisis. Overall, the liberalization policies proved to be effective as the stock market has become more stable and efficient. Foreign institutional investors contribute significant growth to the Taiwan stock market, and will continue to play a sizeable role in its future development.     

The Economic Psychology of Stock Market Bubbles in China

The Chinese stock markets were extremely volatile during the period 2005–08. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index increased more than sixfold from 1,012 in 2005 to 6,124 by the end of 2007. It then declined continuously to reach a low of 1,929 on 17 September 2008, or a drop of 70 per cent from its peak in less than 10 months. Although the market downturn may have been affected by the financial crisis in the United States and the rest of the world, the extreme fluctuations of stock prices signify a big market bubble, and the burst of that bubble must be explained by intrinsic characteristics or the economic psychology of Chinese investors. Based on a detailed market data analysis, this paper attributes the development of the stock market bubble to three key psychological factors: ‘greed’, ‘envy’ and ‘speculation’, and the burst of the bubble to three contrasting factors: ‘fear’, ‘lack of confidence’ and ‘disappointment’. It concludes that only after Chinese companies become really commercialised and profitable and investors become rational can the stock markets become stable without extreme volatility as seen in the past. Government policies can play a role in soothing market volatility detrimental to shareholders and the wider economy, but investors should not depend on government for making their own investment decisions.     

西北地区上市公司财务危机预警模型问题研究

西北地区作为民族聚居区,其战略地位日益显现,但本地区股票市场发展的规模、水平与其地位很不相称。目前制约其发展突出的问题是缺乏定量分析,为此采集和选取了近几年西北地区76家上市公司核心财务指标,以Logistic模型为基础,建立财务预警模型,并对影响公司预亏的核心指标从经济学和财务学的角度给出了降低公司来年预亏可能性的指导性建议。为了克服部分指标间的相关性对分析结果的影响,并使预警模型更趋合理,又进一步以公司预亏前两年各指标的综合值为基础,建立了以显著的主成分指标为回归变量的财务预警的Logistic模型,以期为本区上市公司提供一种及早发现、预防、分散和化解财务风险的参考依据,并为投资者提供较为合理的投资预期分析工具。     

指数期货套利交易策略设计

在期货市场上 ,指数期货是一种股票的避险工具。由于时间及其它因素 ,使得指数期货市场发生不平衡的现象 ,此一不平衡我们称之为套利空间。如何运用金融工程和信息技术来计算出其套利空间 ,为投资人赢得更多的利润 ,正是本研究的宗旨。本文针对指数期货的特性来寻找实时套利机会 ,明确地指出了买低卖高的方向及套利空间的大小 ,并给投资者设计了指数期货套利的交易策略。     

中美贸易摩擦对中国金融安全的影响路径研究——基于PLS模型的验证

基于第四代金融危机理论、金融脆弱理论和经济与金融关系理论提出贸易摩擦对中国金融安全影响的作用路径,采用偏最小二乘路径分析法,分别构建简单路径模型和复合路径模型。结果显示,研究期复合路径模型更合理,贸易摩擦直接负面影响对中国的金融安全影响效果是显著的,并且贸易摩擦直接负面影响可通过对市场情绪产生积极引导,进而正向影响中国金融安全;而贸易摩擦直接负面影响指标通过中国经济基本面的途径影响中国金融安全的结果则不显著。据此,为了增强金融安全重要影响因素和降低市场情绪,提出以下建议:稳定利率,平衡汇率与债市;结构性调整外贸企业杠杆率,增加直接融资;培育股票市场机构投资者,增强专业性;维持较高外汇储备,应对不确定性风险;中国人民银行继续动用逆周期因子。     

The Effect of 2008 Crisis on the Volatility Spillovers among Six Major Markets

The scope of this paper is to determine whether global stock markets function differently under conditions of economic crisis by measuring volatility spillovers between six major markets, namely the US, the UK, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Greece. We examine the volatility spillover effects of the 2008 US financial crisis to these six major markets using daily stock returns from January 2003 to December 2014, before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis. We combine the Diebold and Yilmaz methodology with the stochastic volatility model of Taylor implemented through the sequential Efficient Importance Sampling method of Richard and Zhang to obtain variance decompositions derived from an estimated vector autoregressive model. The empirical findings suggest that stock markets tend to show increased volatility spillovers during the crisis period, thus resulting in lesser diversification benefits for investors.     

Exchange rate regimes, globalisation, and the cost of capital in emerging markets

This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Our results suggest that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets by reducing the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors.     

Industry and country factors in emerging market returns: Did the Asian crisis make a difference?

Should investors diversify across emerging stock markets or across industries to achieve improvements in their risk–return tradeoffs especially during financial crisis periods? We examine the issue using individual firm data from a selection of emerging markets and including the period of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We find that country effects were the dominant force behind the low co-movements among emerging stock market returns. There is evidence of increased industry effects beginning at the time of the Asian financial crisis, but this may have been a temporary phenomenon associated with contagion effects during the crisis.     

机构投资者的交易行为研究:来自中国台湾股市的证据

文章以中国台湾股市为研究对象,主要研究机构投资者的交易行为。文章构建了机构投资者交易不平衡性指标——净交易,在此基础上研究机构投资者的交易行为。研究结果表明:台湾股票市场中以外资和投信基金为代表的金融机构投资者表现为正反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量较高;一般法人的交易表现为负反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量不足;而自营商由于交易动机复杂,交易的信息含量不明确。可见不同的机构投资者的交易行为并不相同。     

Consumer resistance and inertia of retail investors: Development of the resistance adoption inertia continuance (RAIC) framework

Consumer resistance and inertia related behaviors are as important as adoption behaviors. Resistance can lead to unwillingness on the part of the investors to invest in a particular financial product. On the other hand, inertia can potentially lead to loyalty, despite dissatisfaction with a financial product. Consequently, an understanding of the antecedents and outcomes of retail investors’ resistance and inertia toward investments is valuable for firms selling investment products. Although the literature on resistance and inertia is around three decades old, empirical research related to retail investment decision making has only recently gained momentum, resulting in limited but interesting findings. The current study utilizes a systematic literature review (SLR) methodology to review prior studies in this domain. The SLR presents research profiling and an extensive content analysis of the studies selected by applying a robust search protocol. The study findings highlight numerous aspects of retail investment behavior, underscore research gaps in the prior literature, and offer recommendations for future research. Furthermore, a comprehensive framework, labelled resistance adoption inertia continuance (RAIC), is proposed to investigate the behavior of retail investors. The study concludes with meaningful theoretical and practical implications that can help counter resistance and inertia toward different financial products.     

Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets

This paper examines contagion vulnerability and the international and regional financial linkages of the MENA stock markets. The degree of vulnerability of those markets to global and regional financial crises will have important bearings on the respective economies' growth rate, and on their ability to diversify international and regional portfolios. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions reveal that while the GCC equity markets still offer international investors portfolio diversification potentials, those markets are relatively less vulnerable to global and regional financial crises. Moreover, even though the remaining MENA stock markets of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have matured and are now financially integrated with the world stock markets, they tend to exhibit more vulnerability to regional and international financial crises. Their vulnerability to international financial crises is due, on the one hand, to weak regional integration, and to greater economic and financial integration with the more advanced economies on the other.     

会计信息对上海证券市场股票价格影响作用的实证分析

股票价格的变动受多种因素的影响,其中会计信息对股票价格的影响显得尤为重要。会计信息是股票市场信息的主要来源,是影响股票价格的直接因素。因此通过对深沪股市股票价格与会计信息的实证分析,能进一步明确不同会计信息对股票价格的影响程度,及二者之间的关系,从而为投资者在投资时使用财务数据提供理论依据。     

中国股票市场一月效应的实证研究

一月效应是从统计学角度分析股市走势的一种惯常现象,指一月份的回报率往往是"正数",而且会比其他月份为高;相反,十二月的股市回报率很多时候会呈现负值。在传统股市经验里,每逢踏入新一年的一月,股市总是涨的多,跌的少。中国市场是否存在一月效应,投资者能否利用一月效应来获得期望的收益,这些都是研究人员关注的课题。以1997—2007年沪深两市A股指数的日收益率为研究样本,对中国股市是否存在显著的一月效应进行实证研究,结论表明:相对于其他月份而言,中国股市不存在显著的一月效应。     

逐鹿金融城

<正>古人云:器大者声必闳,志高者意必远。从环渤海到京津冀,从东北振兴到中部崛起,从西部开发到中亚合作,从北部湾再到泛北部湾,每一个区域的繁荣都迫切需要金融业的支持。在此背景下,在地域面积等同整个欧洲的中国大地上,出现多个金融中心并不为奇的看法正在形成共识。而在此间,经由各地经济发展所支撑的中国经济总体复兴,亦正呼唤一个与之地位相     

Investor behavior and volatility of futures market: A theory and empirical study based on the OLG model

Investor trading behaviors are always an important issue in behavioral finance and market supervision. This study examines the relationship between investor behavior and future market volatility. We first introduce a two-period OLG model into the futures market, and develop an investor behavior model based on future contract price. We then extend the model to two scenarios: complete and incomplete information. We provide the equilibrium solution, and develop two hypotheses, which are tested with cuprum tick data in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Empirical results show that the two-period OLG model for future market is consistent with the market situation in China. More specifically, investors with sufficient information such as institutional investors usually adopt the contrarian trading strategy, whereas investors with insufficient information, e.g., individual investors, usually adopt the momentum trading strategy. These findings reveal that investor behaviors in the Chinese futures market are different from those of in the Chinese stock market.     

The trend premium around the world: Evidence from the stock market

This paper studies the predictive power of the trend strategy in the international stock market. Using data from 49 markets, we find that a trend signal exploiting the short-, intermediate-, and long-term price information can predict stock returns cross-sectionally in the international market. The significance of the trend strategy is associated with market-level characteristics such as macroeconomic conditions, culture, and the information environment. The trend premium is more pronounced in markets with a more advanced macroeconomic status, a higher level of information uncertainty and individualism, and better accessibility to foreign investors. Nevertheless, the trend strategy only outperforms the momentum strategy in a relatively short horizon.     

Weak-Form Market Efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market in the Context of Financial Reforms and Global Financial Crises

The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) is explored using different statistical tests. The analyses use overall stock market returns collected over the period 2000–2010. It is shown that the NSM is not weak-form efficient which questions the benefits of the 2004 financial reforms. It is also shown that the degree of market inefficiency varies across the periods corresponding to the financial reforms and 2007 global financial crisis, for daily and monthly returns. The results are important to security analysts, investors, and security exchange regulatory agencies in their investment, stock market development, and policy-making decisions.     

Management commitment to innovation and esop stock concentration

The separation of ownership and control can lead to managerial entrenchment and a convergence of decision making and decision control. Decision-making refers to management's authority to make strategic and operating decisions while decision control refers to the ratification and monitoring of management decisions. Managers that possess decision control may behave in a risk-reducing manner relative to the behavior of owner managers because of management's desire to maximize job security Amihud and Lev 1981, McEachern 1975. For example, the managers of such firms may choose to diversify the firm into a wide variety of industries in an attempt to smooth revenues and earnings and avoid a series of peaks and valleys in the company's financial performance. These managers may believe that stable earnings will be viewed positively by shareholders and should help lessen the risk of stockholder action to replace upper-level management. Managers that possess both decision-making and decision-control capabilities may pursue a variety of risk-reducing strategies in addition to broad diversification.The existence of large outside investors has been shown to result in management becoming less risk-averse; management is more willing to adopt a wide range of strategies that present greater risk, but offer greater returns to shareholders. Hill and Snell (1988) found a significant, positive correlation between stock concentration and R&D intensity, indicating that large outside beneficial owners or dominant stockholders can influence management to pursue higher risk-higher return strategies. R&D intensity is used as a proxy for innovation and is generally operationalized as a firm's industry-adjusted R&D expenditures as a percentage of its sales. Findings of other studies also suggest that large investors are associated with decreased risk aversion by management. When controlling for the effects of time, previous R&D spending, liquidity, market share, diversification, market concentration, industry, and leverage, Hansen and Hill (1992) found a mild positive correlation between institutional stock concentration and R&D spending.This paper examines management's ability to utilize employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) to facilitate managerial decision control or the capability to ratify and monitor decisions and subsequently adopt greater risk-reducing behavior. It is possible that management may adopt an ESOP to enhance entrenchment by placing a large block of the company's shares under the control of company managers and employees that are under the supervision of management. As a result, some ESOPs may not be effective alignment mechanisms since participants may find it difficult to organize a vote against management proposals or generate adequate enthusiasm and momentum to replace top-level managers. The paper anticipates that a positive relationship exists between the degree of ESOP stock concentration and the reduced risk-taking behavior of management. Specifically, the study argues that as ESOP stock concentration increases, management will likely behave in a risk-reducing manner and decrease its commitment to innovation, as measured by R&D intensity.Employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) are qualified retirement plans under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) and are treated similarly under the Act to other qualified pension plans with the exception of portfolio diversification. Employee stock ownership plans consist only of shares of the employer's stock and the performance of an ESOP-based retirement fund hinges with the market performance of that single stock. An agency theory framework would suggest that ESOPs that control large blocks of outstanding shares have an effect on management similar to that of other large investors and act to encourage management to craft and implement strategies that will yield superior financial and market performance. As ESOP stock concentration increases, agency theory proposes that ESOP participants would readily act to protect their interests and the interests of other shareholders. However, some previous research suggests that large ESOPs are not alignment mechanisms, but further entrench current management into their positions.Gordon and Pound (1990) found that management can use large ESOPs to increase effective insider ownership to protect against unwanted changes in corporate control. The authors suggested that ESOPs were less effective than other types of large investors at monitoring management decisions since ESOPs are unilaterally undertaken by management, ESOP shares are held only by incumbent managerial and non-managerial employees, and ESOP trustees are frequently appointed by management. The market has been shown to view an ESOP as a management entrenchment mechanism when the ESOP was adopted as a possible takeover defense Chang 1990, Dhillon and Ramirez 1994. The market reacts more favorably to an ESOP adoption when other large outside shareholders are present who have the capability to offset the influence of inefficient managers who might choose to use the ESOP to further entrench themselves into their positions (Park and Song 1995).The results of this study find that after the implementation of an ESOP, R&D intensity decreases as ESOP stock concentration increases. A significant negative relationship exists between ESOP stock concentration and change in industry-adjusted R&D intensity at the 0.05 level when controlling for firm size and change in profitability. The sample included firms where ESOP stock concentration represented as little as 3% of the employer's outstanding shares and as much as 67% of all outstanding employer stock. The sampled firms with the greatest ESOP stock concentration were associated with the greatest decreases in industry-adjusted R&D intensity after the implementation of the ESOP. The results suggest that management of high ESOP stock concentration firms became more risk-averse in regard to commitment to innovation after implementation of the ESOP.Agency theory adequately explains the effect of large outside stockholders on management's choice of strategy. Hill and Snell (1988) and Hansen and Hill (1992) have found that as stock concentration increases, incentive alignment becomes increasingly likely. The independent nature of large outside blockholders contributes to a separation of decision making from decision control, a reduction in agency costs, and a minimization of managerial risk-reducing behavior. As highly independent blockholder size decreases, decision making and decision control converge, and management entrenchment is more probable.Agency theory fails to adequately explain the effect of employee stock ownership on managerial risk-reducing behavior. Employee stock ownership does have the capability to align shareholder and employee interests under the proper conditions. However, ESOPs lack independence from managerial influence and are much less likely than outside institutional investors to monitor management decision-making and pressure management to adopt strategies that incorporate greater risk and an opportunity for greater returns. The study found that increased ESOP stock concentration was associated with greater managerial risk-reducing behavior. The results suggest that agency effects are more likely in firms with modest ESOP stock concentration since the ESOP does provide incentives for an alignment of interests, but does not provide management with a mechanism to block the actions of other large blockholders. ESOPs with higher levels of stock concentration are likely to facilitate management entrenchment by preventing some large percentage of shares from aligning with other large shareholders to challenge management decision-making. If other investors lack the capability to put full pressure on management, the monitoring and ratification of management decisions has been yielded to management. Therefore, a managerial entrenchment hypothesis is better suited than agency theory in explaining the effect of large ESOPs on management's risk-reducing behavior.     

基于因子分析法的钢铁行业上市公司投资价值分析

在目前股票市场上,钢铁企业的投资价值倍受广大股民关注.通过运用因子分析方法,对上市钢铁公司的财务指标进行分析,明显看出上市公司业绩主要受三个具有一定含义的因子影响.通过对三个因子分析发现,这三个因子有利于投资者对上市公司的财务状况能够有一个明确、简洁和清晰的认识,使他们能够对股票作出正确的评价,在实际应用中,授资者还可结合财务报表的原始数据作出自己正确和明智的判断.     

现金流量表的一种期权分析法

期权理论不仅在衍生金融产品定价上应用广泛,其在公司理财中的应用也日渐普遍。对现金流量进行期权分析并计算其期权价值,可以深入地认识到企业对现金流量的掌控能力,引导人们正确评价经营者的业绩,并为市场上的投资者提供有用的信息。