The impact of higher education expansion on intergenerational mobility

The persistent correlations between parents and children's outcomes have long been investigated. From a policy perspective, it is important to understand the underlying causes of those correlations. Educational policy changes may have significant impacts on intergenerational mobility. The last several decades have witnessed a remarkable expansion of higher education around the world. In this paper, we examine the effect of higher education expansion on intergenerational mobility in China. We find that the higher education expansion in China has weakened the advantage of cadres’ children in higher education participation, and has strengthened the intergenerational educational correlation. One explanation for these results might be that, along with the process of economic reform started in 1979, the cadre selection mechanism has placed more and more weight on candidate's education and abilities.     

Fiscal Competition and Higher Education Spending in Germany

The present paper studies the determinants of higher education spending by the German federal states with a focus on the interplay between higher education spending of neighboring states. More specifically, the paper asks whether the German federal states free‐ride on one another's higher educational spending or whether they employ higher education spending to attract university graduates. We identify a positive relationship between the states' higher education spending and conclude that the states compete for graduates rather than free‐ride. We also consider the effect of the recent introduction of tuition fees in some, but not all German states. We do not find evidence that tuition fees led to crowding out of public higher education funds.     

Social mobility and inequality in urban China: understanding the role of intergenerational transmission of education

China’s rapid economic growth since the late 1980s has been accompanied by great economic and social transformations, which have resulted in a sharp increase in income inequality. This article contributes to the literature of social mobility in China by examining the impact of parental education on the education of their children. Using the 1990 and 2000 Chinese Population Censuses, we employ nonparametric estimation strategies to provide a systematic investigation of intergenerational transmission of education in urban China. We find evidence of increasing parents–children educational correlations. Our results raise concerns regarding economic inequality in urban China as high intergenerational persistence of education is expected to be a barrier to equal opportunities in children’s education attainments and their future labour market outcomes.     

Tuition increases Geaux away? Evidence from voting on Louisiana’s amendment 2

In many states, public institutions of higher education have the autonomy to raise tuition. This has not been the case in Louisiana since a 1995 constitutional amendment required a two-thirds majority of the state legislature for any tuition increase. In November of 2016, voters in Louisiana rejected Amendment 2, a constitutional amendment that would have given state institutions of higher education autonomy in setting tuition. We examine parish-level voting on Amendment 2 using an empirical political economy model and find that parishes with a greater percentage of African-Americans and university employees were more likely to vote yes. Student enrolment at public institutions seemingly did not play a role in Amendment 2 losing.     

基于层次分析法的高等学校学费模型研究

本文分析了影响高等学校学费的众多因素,确定出生均拨款、培养费用、家庭收入和社会资助这四个主要的影响因素,并且基于层次分析法建立了影响因素之间的层次模型。通过构造出成对比较判断矩阵,对矩阵结果进行归一化处理、层次单排序及一致性检验,得到高校学费影响因素在影响程度上的排序,GDP、地区、学校类型和专业对学费的影响较大,而人员经费、设施折旧费和社会资助对学费影响较小。本文结合搜集整理的高校学费标准的相关数据,建立学费的预测模型,对学费标准进行了定量分析。结果表明：2010年学费有所增加,平均学费基本稳于4500元左右,且艺术专业学费最高。     

教育融资体制对代际流动性与不平等程度的动态影响：基于OL G模型的分析

传统的代际流动性研究并没有对代际流动性的短期值和长期值作有效区分,也未考虑人力资本形成中的不确定性,因而“代际流动性越高则不平等程度越低”这一分析结论并未在中国的现实中呈现。文章据此通过构建一个代际交叠模型比较分析了公共教育体制和市场教育体制下的代际流动性。模型动态分析发现：(1)公共教育体制下的不平等程度的长期值比市场教育体制下更低。(2)代际流动性短期值的升高并不总是伴随着不平等程度的下降,当社会受到某种剧烈冲击时可能发生两者同升同降的情况。(3)政府进行激进式的教育体制改革会使人力资本收敛速率发生跃升,并且使不平等程度的短期值和长期值都增大,而代际流动性则会在突降后在逐渐收敛到新的更低的稳态值。(4)人力资本积累不确定性参数值反映了个体不可观测的技能或先天禀赋,是影响代际流动性和不平等程度的重要因素。不确定性的突然上升会使不平等程度的短期值迅速上升,并且会使不平等程度的长期值达到新的高位,虽然代际流动性短期值也会迅速上升,但依旧会逐渐收敛到以前的稳态值不变。文章的研究有益于厘清代际流动性与不平等程度的复杂关系,也能为相关实证研究提供参考。     

家庭借贷约束、公共教育支出与社会流动性

人力资本投资是增强社会流动性的重要手段,然而借贷约束使得底层家庭无力对子女进行最优的人力资本投资;与此同时,富裕家庭则不受借贷约束的影响,总体结果是社会流动性减弱。利用中国健康与养老追踪调查和全国综合社会调查数据,本文发现,借贷约束确实提高了居民收入和教育的代际传递弹性,降低了社会流动性。在匹配政府公共教育支出数据后发现,公共教育支出可以缓解家庭层面人力资本投资的不足,提高教育水平的代际流动性。     

“PAY IT FORWARD” AND HIGHER EDUCATION SUBSIDIES: A MEDIAN VOTER MODEL

Since 2012, at least 24 states have considered legislation on Pay It Forward (PIF) models of higher education finance (which enable students to pay the price of college upon departure from an institution, as opposed to paying upfront tuition). This paper proposes a theoretical model of PIF policies within a framework in which voters belonging to different income groups vote over the level of subsidies to higher education. We analyze the impact of two types of potential PIF policies—a deferred tuition approach and an income share approach—on college access and on voting equilibria over subsidy levels. The results show that college access is enhanced by PIF policies. The equilibrium level of subsidies depends crucially on the pattern of income distribution, in particular on the relationship between mean income and the income of the median income group, and on whether higher education widens or narrows the distribution of income. We show that the equilibrium level of subsidies to higher education will not necessarily decline under PIF, and may increase in some circumstances due to changes in college access for low‐income groups. (JEL I22, I23)     

Patterns and determinants of intergenerational educational mobility: Evidence across countries

This study analyses the patterns and determinants of the intergenerational persistence of education attainment. Internationally comparable data are used by age cohort for parentsʼ and childrenʼs education levels for 30 countries. The intergenerational regression coefficients are estimated by explicitly considering the bias from the censored regressor, and they show that educational mobility has worsened over generations in most countries. However, the degree of change varies considerably across countries and over time. Country-cohort panel regressions are performed using the estimates of intergenerational educational mobility and covariates. The results show that intergenerational educational mobility tends to decrease with income inequality, inflation and credit constraints. However, it increases with per capita GDP and public expenditure on primary education relative to that on tertiary education.     

Multigenerational Mobility Among Males in India

Most studies of intergenerational mobility focus on adjacent generations, and there is limited knowledge about multigenerational mobility—status transmission across three generations. We examine multigenerational educational and occupational mobility in India, using a nationally representative data set the India Human Development Survey that contains information about education and occupation for three generations. We find that mobility has increased over generations for education, but not for occupation. We also find that there are stark differences across social groups, with individuals belonging to socially disadvantaged communities lagging behind in social progress. Multigenerational mobility for Muslims in education and occupation has decreased in comparison to Hindus over the three generations. While we find that there is an increase in educational mobility for other disadvantaged groups such as Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes compared to General Castes, we do not find evidence of increased occupational mobility over the three generations.     

劳动力自由迁移为何如此重要?——基于代际收入流动的视角

未考虑人口迁移影响的代际收入弹性估计存在偏误。本文将人口迁移与区域特性纳入代际收入弹性估计方程,并运用迁移概率作为局部工具变量进行估计,发现迁移者的代际收入弹性不到未迁移者的一半。而当前我国代际收入流动的主要问题在于部分人群面临"代际低收入传承陷阱",他们可以通过迁移从而增加就业机会等方式摆脱这一陷阱,这至少可以使一代人免受代际低收入传承的困扰。进一步分析迁移对代际收入传递路径的影响,结果表明教育在可识别的代际收入传递路径中贡献最大,而迁移强化了这一影响。鉴于人口迁移对代际收入流动的重要影响,政府部门有必要进一步采取措施降低劳动力自由迁移的障碍,并合理分配教育资源,以增进社会公平程度。     

The determination of public tuition fees in a mixed education system: A majority voting model

We study the determination of public tuition fees through majority voting in a vertical differentiation model where agents' returns on educational investment differ and public and private universities coexist and compete in tuition fees. The private university offers higher educational quality than its competitor, incurring higher unit cost per trained student. The tuition fee for the state university is fixed by majority voting while that for the private follows from profit maximization. Then agents choose to train at the public university or the private one or to remain uneducated. The tax per head adjusts in order to balance the state budget. Because there is a private alternative, preferences for education are not single‐peaked and no single‐crossing condition holds. An equilibrium is shown to exist, which is one of three types: high tuition fee (the “ends” are a majority), low tuition fee (the “middle” is a majority), or mixed (votes tie). The cost structure determines which equilibrium obtains. The equilibrium tuition is either greater (majority at the ends) or smaller (majority at the middle) than the optimal one.     

CHILD POVERTY, INVESTMENT IN CHILDREN AND GENERATIONAL MOBILITY: THE SHORT AND LONG TERM WELLBEING OF CHILDREN IN URBAN CHINA AFTER THE ONE CHILD POLICY

China's One Child Policy (OCP), introduced in 1979, changed fundamentally the nature of both existing and anticipated marriage arrangements and influenced family formation decisions in many dimensions, especially with respect to the number of and investment in children. The policy coincided with the Economic Reforms of 1979 and the trend toward greater urbanization, all of which may have influenced the wellbeing of children. This paper examines the mobility status consequence of children in urban China since the introduction of the OCP and the economic reforms using data drawn from urban household surveys in China. The analysis first makes the comparison between child poverty in Canada, the United Kingdom and urban India, where it was found that both status and trends of child poverty are very different among the countries, with children not being over-represented in the poverty group in urban China. The extent to which the policies influenced investment in children is next examined by studying the way in which the relationship between the educational attainment of children and family characteristics changed within families formed prior to and after 1979. We found that the impact of household income and parental educational attainment increased significantly over time, with a positive gender effect where girls advanced more than boys. Applying new techniques for measuring mobility, we observe the reduction in intergenerational mobility. This phenomenon is found to be particularly prevalent in the lower income quantiles, reinforcing a dynastic notion of poverty.     

树立全新教育观念,突出高职办学特色

高职教育的生存和发展贵在坚持质量和特色,而提高质量和办出特色的先导是教育观念的与时俱进。因此,高职院校必须以市场对人才的需求为导向,以教学改革为核心,通过科学的、具有前瞻性的专业设置,合理的、特色鲜明的课程体系改革,适合高职特征的实训基地建设和规范的"双师型"教师队伍的培养为切入点,全面提升高职教育的社会声誉和办学效益。     

CASH TRANSFERS,INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY,AND THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT

We examine how cash transfers affect an individual's education investment, intergenerational mobility, and economic growth. We find that providing larger transfer amounts to higher ability children is desirable to foster growth if the economy has relatively low wage inequality.     

Testing sensitivity of student enrollment with respect to tuition at an institution of higher education

This study was conducted to measure the impact of H-University's (HU's) tuition increases on enrollment. Based on an internal survey, this study attempts to explain the sensitivity of student enrollment to tuition variations. In addition, this paper develops an aggregate enrollment model and uses the common economic variables such as tuition, income, wage rates, financial aids, and unemployment rates to explain the sensitivity of demand. The most significant finding of this study is that tuition consideration seems to have a relatively small effect on students' decisions. Actually, enrollment at HU (a private institution) have increased despite higher tuition rate. Possible justifications could be proposed, such as the necessity of higher education and the fact that higher education is a continued investment in human capital, in which the more relevant decision factor is the corresponding expected rate of return and not just the cost of investment. Presented at the International Atlantic Economic Society's Conference, Vienna, Austria, March 2003.     

School tracking and intergenerational income mobility: Evidence from the Finnish comprehensive school reform

This paper estimates the effect of a major education reform on intergenerational income mobility. The Finnish comprehensive school reform of 1972–1977 replaced the old two-track school system with a uniform nine-year comprehensive school and shifted the selection of students to vocational and academic tracks from age 11 to age 16. We estimate the effect of this reform on the intergenerational income elasticity using a representative sample of males born between 1960 and 1966. The identification strategy relies on a differences-in-differences approach and exploits the fact that the reform was implemented gradually across the country during a six-year period. The results indicate that the reform reduced the intergenerational income elasticity by 23% from the pre-reform elasticity of 0.30 to post-reform elasticity of 0.23.     

代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用.文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等.进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大.文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示.     

代际间的职业流动与收入流动——来自中国城乡家庭的经验研究

本文通过对中国城乡家庭代际间的职业流动与收入流动进行实证研究,得出以下结论:(1)城镇家庭子女的职业随其职业生涯的发展有向父辈职业"回归"的趋势,而农村家庭中父代从事非农职业有助于子女实现职业的向上流动。(2)子女受教育程度的提高有利于代际间职业的向上流动,但其父辈的社会经济特征也对代际间的职业传承和流动有显著的影响。(3)代际之间职业的传承在一定程度上阻碍了代际间的收入流动,代际职业传承对高收入家庭的代际收入弹性影响更强。     

Intergenerational transfer,human capital and long-term growth in China under the one child policy

We suggest that the demographic changes caused by the one child policy (OCP) may not harm China's long-term growth. This is because of the higher human capital accumulation induced by the intergenerational transfer arrangements under China's poor-functioning formal social security system. Parents raise their children and depend on them for support when they reach an advanced age. A decrease in the number of children prompted by the OCP results in parents investing more in their children's education to ensure retirement consumption. In addition, decreased childcare costs strengthen educational investment through an income effect. Using a calibrated model, a benchmark with the OCP is compared to three counterfactual experiments without the OCP. Output in 2025 without OCP decreases about 4% under moderate estimates. The output gain comes from a greatly increased educational investment driven by fewer children (11.4 years of schooling rather than 8.1). Our model sheds new light on the prospects of China's long-term growth by emphasizing the OCP's growth enhancing role through human capital formation under intergenerational transfer arrangements.