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1.
Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small
global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities, these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second,
their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are “short equity, long debt.” Third, China and India have
improved their net external positions over the last decade although neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers.
We argue that domestic financial policies are key to understanding these patterns and the future role of China in the international
financial system.
相似文献
Sergio L. SchmuklerEmail: |
2.
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of
country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world
trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an
aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise
large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
相似文献
Stephane DeesEmail: |
3.
Hector C. Butts 《The Review of Black Political Economy》2009,36(2):93-111
In this paper the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and short-term external debt was investigated
for 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1970–2003. The empirical results suggest the existence of bidirectional
causality relationships between the two variables for several countries, which means that the performance of both variables
is interrelated. The main finding is that in the short- and long- runs Granger causality from economic growth to short-term
external debt is present in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries. With the evidence suggesting, in the majority of estimated
cases, economic growth Granger caused short-term external debt, short-term policy decisions related to capacity absorption
enhancement should be encouraged in Latin America and the Caribbean. Further work in this regard is encouraged in the form
of panel studies or specific individual case studies inclusive of foreign trade linkage parameters to capture the potential
effects of omitted variables.
相似文献
Hector C. ButtsEmail: |
4.
In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features.
First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second,
we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade
can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide
strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home
bias puzzle.
相似文献
Jacques Melitz (Corresponding author)Email: |
5.
This paper assesses China’s “natural” place in the world economy with a new set of trade integration indicators, which are
used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such
as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates
many more factors than traditional openness ratios. The model tracks international trade well and confirms that China is already
well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets
and most euro area countries.
相似文献
Matthieu BussièreEmail: |
6.
Vincent Vicard 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(2):167-187
Regional trade agreements (RTAs) are usually classified according to their form into four broad categories: preferential arrangements,
free trade agreements, customs unions and common markets. This paper investigates whether the form/depth of RTAs matters concerning
their effect on trade. I use a proper specification of the gravity model with panel data on the 1960–2000 period, which specifically
control for self-selection into agreements. Results show that creating any kind of RTAs providing trade preferences to their
member countries significantly increases bilateral trade. Nevertheless, their average treatment effect on bilateral trade
does not significantly differ according to the depth of agreements.
相似文献
Vincent VicardEmail: |
7.
This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral
export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize;
on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization,
for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita
income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for
countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.
相似文献
Massimo Tamberi (Corresponding author)Email: |
8.
Eric Toulemonde 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):203-219
The paper builds an analytically tractable model that illustrates the “proximity–concentration trade-off” involved in horizontal
multinationals. For low trade costs, firms are single-plant firms, for intermediate costs, some are single-plant firms whereas
others are multinationals, for large trade costs, firms are multinationals. Because of the modeling strategy, the model is
suited for a welfare analysis of multinationals. It shows that too many firms choose to concentrate their production in only
one location. Also, for some transport costs, a reduction in transport costs worsens welfare.
相似文献
Eric ToulemondeEmail: |
9.
Silvio H. T. Tai 《Review of World Economics》2009,145(2):225-249
Many recent studies have looked at the impact of international migration on trade and found a significant effect. They posit
that migration fosters trade by lowering costs or by means of a preference bias. However, to my knowledge, market structure
has not as yet been considered. Using data from Switzerland, this paper empirically assesses the extent to which migration
affects trade, taking goods differentiation into account. A monopolistic model with a multisector economy (Chaney in Am Econ
Rev 98(41):1707–1721, 2008) is then empirically estimated. The findings show that market structure explains the different channels through which migration
affects trade.
相似文献
Silvio H. T. TaiEmail: |
10.
Each year around 8% of Swedish manufacturing firms leave an industry. Of the exit routes available, the least likely is firm
closure. Firms are more likely to merge, become acquired or switch to a new industry. We investigate the importance of a range
of firm and industry characteristics for the exit decision of Swedish firms from 1980–1996. From our analysis two patterns
are evident. First, firms that close down appear to be the most distinct compared to those that remain within the sector.
Second the same characteristics can have quite different associations with different exit strategies.
相似文献
David GreenawayEmail: |
11.
This paper examines the impact of trade policy on specialization patterns in ten Latin American countries over the period
1985–1998. These countries are natural case studies because in the last decades they implemented comprehensive trade liberalization
programs, both generally and preferentially, starting from relatively high tariff protection levels. Our econometric results
suggest that reducing own most favored nation tariffs is associated with increasing manufacturing production specialization.
Furthermore, we find that preferential trade liberalization and differences in the degree of unilateral openness have resulted
in increased dissimilarities in manufacturing production structures across countries. These results are robust across specialization
measures and estimation methods.
相似文献
Christian Volpe MartincusEmail: |
12.
This paper investigates the interaction between institutional integration and trade deepening in the EU over the last 50 years.
It uses Granger causality tests, a VECM and variance decompositions to further the understanding of this interaction. The
evidence indicates two-way endogeneity. But the link from institution building to trade dominates. Yet, this link has weakened
over time, possibly due to globalisation sidestepping institutions. Moreover, the sensitivity of institutional integration
to trade deepening has risen, which suggests that economic forces have gained more strength in determining institutional steps.
相似文献
Francesco Paolo MongelliEmail: |
13.
We examine the effects of trade policy changes on the evolution of productivity in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Plant
level productivities are estimated for the 1983–1996 period following the procedure of Olley and Pakes. Industry averages
indicate that productivity gains are largest in import-competing industries with highest gains reaching 8% per year during
periods of rapid decline in protection rates. We find that productivity improvements resulting from declining protection rates
are statistically significant and economically important, especially in import-competing sectors. More importantly, productivity
improvements due to declining protection rates increase with the plant size.
相似文献
Kamil Yilmaz (Corresponding author)Email: |
14.
Within a two-sector-two-country model of trade with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, a more generous welfare state
in one country increases welfare in that country and can have positive spillover effects on the other. Furthermore, synchronised
expansions of social security are more welfare enhancing than unilateral ones. Our results counter the fears that a race to
the bottom in social standards may result from the ‘shrinking-tax-base’ entailed by international capital mobility. While
affecting trade patterns and income distribution, capital mobility interacts with welfare state policies in increasing welfare,
even when capital flows out of the country that initiates the shock.
相似文献
Catia MontagnaEmail: |
15.
Building on the celebrated Keynes–Ohlin debate and on Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (Rev Econ Stat 86:841–857, 2004), the paper
investigates the transfer problem for the Euro area vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The analysis is developed in a theoretically
and statistically consistent way and is intended as a contribution to the empirical literature on EMU. The main result of
the paper is that the accumulation of net foreign asset in the Euro area is consistent with real exchange appreciation, largely
through the relative price of nontradables rather than through the terms of trade.
相似文献
Paolo Paesani (Corresponding author)Email: |
16.
This paper investigates whether small countries gain relatively more than large countries from an ‘expansion’ of their market
through the creation of a single currency. The introduction of the euro offers a particularly valuable source to test this
hypothesis, which we motivate using the theoretical model by Casella of the year 1996. Our results from a panel data analysis,
using both aggregate and disaggregated trade data, point to a statistically significant but quantitatively moderate small
country bonus. On average, the euro has led to an improvement of the small euro area’s relative export performance by 3–9%.
相似文献
Harald BadingerEmail: |
17.
Ernesto Valenzuela Kym Anderson Thomas Hertel 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2008,4(4):395-420
The WTO’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade
reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001.
However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable
general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and
regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about
factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.
相似文献
Ernesto ValenzuelaEmail: |
18.
This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian
manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during
the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time
as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is
estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.
相似文献
Terence YuenEmail: |
19.
Non-traded Goods,Technical Progress and Wages 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We use a general equilibrium model of trade to show that technical improvement may indeed cause a fall in the wages of unskilled
workers. Under some modest conditions, the wages of skilled workers may go down too.
相似文献
Reza OladiEmail: |
20.
African countries, especially sub-Saharan ones, have conflicting interests in multilateral negotiations on agriculture. On
the one hand, their economies may be boosted by the price effect induced by agricultural liberalization. On the other hand,
multilateral tariff cuts will result in the erosion of preferential margins. Based on an original methodology, using CGE modeling,
detailed tariff calculations and predictive analysis, this paper investigates the potential impact of current multilateral
negotiations on the value of preferences for African agriculture. It estimates the preferential value to USD 0.7 billion of
welfare and USD 1 billion of exports to the Triad markets. Furthermore, it highlights the “cruel dilemma” African countries
face in current negotiations, as they gain from ambitious trade liberalization, despite the large preferential erosion, while
they suffer from noticeable trade and welfare losses under conservative scenarios.
相似文献
Mustapha Sadni Jallab (Corresponding author)Email: |