重庆保障性住房选址调查研究

保障性住房的选址是保障性住房工作的重要组成部分。通过对重庆保障性住房选址的调查,分析目前选址存在的问题,提出如下建议：在居住控制用地上,有时序地选址;控制用地规模,与不同收入人群居住用地混合;公交先行,发展以公共交通为主导的住区模式的选址;以期优化保障性住房的选址,更好地服务民生。     

中国廉租房制度的资金来源问题研究

近年来,随着房价的飞涨,低收入者的住房问题成为政府民生政策的重要一环,尤其是2009年住建部《2009--2011年廉租住房保障规划》出台后,廉租房重新受到“热捧”,各地纷纷出台廉租房建设规划方案。学术界的讨论也愈加热烈,针对廉租房制度的缺陷、如何完善以及政府责任的探讨也屡见不鲜。但具体探讨中央和地方政府应该如何在廉租房建设中承担各自责任,以及如何保证廉租房制度的各级财政支持的研究还是比较欠缺的。因此,试图运用成本一收益分析、权责统一和外部性效应等方法,解释目前廉租房建设中财政资金不足的原因,理清中央和地方政府在廉租房制度中应当承担的责任,从而在财政资金上保证廉租房制度的顺利推行。     

The multi-market analysis of a housing price transmission model

In this article, we examine dynamic relationships among housing prices from four first-tier cities in China from December 2000 to May 2010 and present an equilibrium model of housing price in multi-markets. By explicitly incorporating and modelling endogenous price series in competing housing markets, our empirical model is able to capture the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships and important short-run dynamics and price structures such as price leadership, price transmission lag and asymmetric price responses. Such multi-market analysis has generalized implications and can easily be applied to analyse the pricing dynamics among other real estate markets in the world. Our major contribution lies in two aspects. First, we employ an Error-Correction Model (ECM) with Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to study the price dynamics in the four largest and key housing markets in China. Second, we uncover a price transmission among these housing markets in China and provide an insightful understanding of price adjustment across markets. The revealed effective price transmission and high correlation among these different markets actually is not a good thing for a stable financial system and for the defence against price bubbles in the housing market.     

经济适用房与高房价关系的实证分析——基于VAR模型

使用2005—2010年的月度数据对我国房价增长速度与经济适用房之间的关系进行实证分析。通过建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,并运用协整检验和Granger检验,分析两者之间可能存在的长期和短期关系以及作用方向。研究结果表明:在短期,经济适用房对全国房价增速起正向推动作用,但推动力先增强后衰减,影响较小且会在10个月后消失;在长期,经济适用房与全国房价增速之间不存在长期均衡关系和Granger因果关系。     

中国经济适用房政策运行的特征分析

近十年来,经济适用房在保障中低收入家庭基本住房需求的同时,也暴露出了严重的缺陷。文章利用省级人口普查资料和相关统计数据,对中国各省经济适用房住户特征和房价变动情况及其原因进行了描述和解释性的研究。结论显示,经济适用房房价变动存在显著的外溢性,城市居民经济适用房购买力下降的事实并不存在明显的地域差异。在经济适用房房价持续攀升的背景下,部分省市经济适用房住户特征变化明显。     

Long memory and fractional integration in the housing price series of London and Paris

This article deals with the analysis of house price indexes from a long-range dependence viewpoint. In particular, it estimates the fractional differencing parameter in the London and Paris house price series recognizing in some cases the potential seasonality and allowing for breaks in the data. Moreover, it analyses the stability of the parameters across the sample period examined. It is concluded that the series are nonstationary but mean reverting in some cases and very persistent in others. Policy implications are derived.     

Housing price variability: national and local impacts

This article examines the influence of national and local forces on housing prices in 20 local US real estate markets during the recent housing price run-up and decline. We use reduced-form panel data fixed-effects models with robust SEs to determine the impact of national and local effects on housing prices in 20 US cities across time. A national home price index and mortgage rate are used to measure national impacts on the local markets. A mix of socio-economic variables estimates local impacts. We find no results indicating that national trends lack relevance in local markets; however, we find wide support for the additional inclusion of local socio-economic factors in all markets. The findings are consistent with an environment in which national polices and trends influence all markets; however local policymakers and investors can continue to expect geographic differences in market outcomes.     

Expectations and the housing market: A model of house price dynamics

We examine the characteristics of housing markets under adaptive and heterogeneous expectations. Model agents have finite horizons, and their borrowings are constrained by the collateral value of housing stock. Our model shows that expectation-driven housing price dynamics constantly change the direction of movement. The steady-state process of housing prices follows an endogenous oscillation process, and the magnitude of the cycles can be amplified by external shocks. Our quantitative results imply that (i) short-term positive and long-term negative serial correlations in housing price changes are inherent, (ii) house prices and expected house price movements are positively correlated, and (iii) fluctuations in housing prices are not fully explained by fundamentals.     

Information and housing search: theory and evidence from China market

Asymmetric market information plays a role in households’ housing choice. To study this role, we theoretically and empirically examine the varied behaviours between better-informed and less-informed households in a housing market. The housing search model theoretically predicts that better-informed households are more likely to secure a better deal. With the data from Tianjin in China, hedonic models are calibrated to quantify the impacts of asymmetric information on housing search outcomes. The results show that the less-informed homebuyers need to pay around 1~2.3% more than those better-informed homebuyers after controlling the heterogeneity of housing units, which are consistent with the theoretical predictions. It suggests that policies and institutions to alleviate asymmetric information in housing market could improve the welfare of households.     

Moore's law and price trends of digital products: the case of smartphones

ABSTRACT

Since the introduction of the iPhone by Apple in 2007 and Google's Android platform in 2009, the two systems have accounted for a total of 90% of the U.S. smartphone market. Apple, however, reaps most of the profit in the industry. In the second quarter of 2016, for example, Apple's iPhone gets 104% of the sector's profit. This suggests that the smartphone market resembles a Stackelberg leadership model. Despite Apple's strong market power, we investigate if the market leader is under pressure to be price competitive. We calculate a quality-adjusted price index for smartphones from 2007 to 2016. Our results show that the average price declines at an average rate of over 27% per year. The price trend is similar to other digit products such as computers, cameras, and portable music players. We observe that the large price decline reflects the effect of Moore's law, which predicts that the capacity of integrated circuits undergoes an exponential growth. The effect of Moore's law is incorporated into the Stackelberg model. We also observe that price trends of other digital products also follow a similar pattern. This suggest that the long-run price trends of digital consumer goods are somewhat independent of the market structures.     

Life cycle and housing decisions: a comparison by age cohorts

The use of decomposition methodologies when the involved variable is continuous is not common in the literature. This article uses this methodology, together with other decomposition methodologies, to explain how age can influence on housing decisions. In particular, we use Spanish data to study whether the age of the householder plays a significant role in influencing household decisions with respect to housing tenure and demand. From the comparison of housing decisions between different groups of households classified by the age of the householders, we conclude that age plays the primary role in explaining the gap between households regarding tenure choice, while it shares its importance with other covariates of the model in the housing demand decision.     

Housing price,talent movement,and innovation output: Evidence from Chinese cities

How housing costs would influence the job‐housing choice of talent and associated city‐level innovation performance is a question of interest for urban development policies. Recently, considerable attention has been paid to the influence of rising housing prices on the attraction of talent and the associated innovation output in major Chinese cities. In this paper, we use the housing price data of 51 cities from the China Real Estate Index System database and the corresponding macro data of China City Statistical Yearbooks from 2005 to 2014 to analyze this focal research question. The empirical analysis shows that the increase in city housing prices generally correlates positively with city innovation outcome and talent attraction, suggesting no crowding‐out effect on the innovative performance of the city. However, the positive association between housing prices and innovation outcome and talent attraction has started to disappear in first‐tier cities in recent years, suggesting potential crowding‐out effect if the increasing housing prices transform to bubbles. This research thus provides considerable policy implications concerning the impacts of housing prices on talent movement and innovation output.     

The impact of price floors on farmland investments: a real options based experimental analysis

Price floors are a common instrument for market intervention to stimulate investments. In some cases, it can be observed that a price floor does not have the stimulating effect. We experimentally analyse the investment behaviour of students who take the role of farmers. The experiment considers an investment problem under uncertainty in a ‘with price floor’ and a ‘no price floor’ treatment, stylizing a decision to take an ongoing farmland investment option. We compare the actual investment behaviour with normative benchmarks of the net present value and the real options approach. Furthermore, we look at order and learning effects. The results show that the price floor has no significant impact on the willingness to invest, whereas the effects of order were statistically significant. The investment reluctance arising from an abolishment is stronger than the investment stimulation arising from the introduction of a price floor. Furthermore, neither the net present value nor the real options approach is appropriate to predict the investment behaviour in general. Nevertheless, the predictions of the real options approach enable an approximation of the participants’ investment behaviour if the individuals have an adequate chance to learn from personal experience.     

Estimating a socially optimal water price for irrigation versus an environmentally optimal water price through the use of Geographical Information Systems and Social Accounting Matrices

This article develops a method for establishing water prices and their effects in order to provide policy makers an environmentally and socially optimal range of regional prices for irrigation water. Two prices are determined. The “environmentally optimal price” of water is defined as the one that internalizes the environmental costs generated by agricultural consumption. The “social optimally price” of water is defined as the one that maximizes levies on water for agriculture without affecting the regional economy. The environmentally optimal price is calculated with an economic model built over a Geographical Information System (GIS) that allows the economic quantification and valuation of the environmental cost of water in different basins. The optimal price is calculated with a demand curve for irrigation water introduced into a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to observe if the regional economy can accept higher prices without affecting the regional GDP. Potential water prices are established, ranging from prices that minimize the negative impact in the regional economy to those that totally internalize the environmental cost of water.     

Housing price fluctuations and financial risk transmission: a spatial economic model

Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999–2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers’ heavy investment, local governments’ land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors; (2) due to the ‘substitution effect’, the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks; (3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations; (4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the ‘imitative behaviour’ or ‘driving effect’ of different sectors for different regions of China.     

Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: support for a fundamental value

This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency Bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an important role in explaining Bitcoin prices, challenging recent allegations that Bitcoins are essentially worthless. Even with markets pricing Bitcoin in the thousands of dollars each, the valuation model seems robust. The data show that a price bubble that began in the Fall of 2017 resolved itself in early 2018, converging with the marginal cost model. This suggests that while bubbles may appear in the Bitcoin market, prices will tend to this bound and not collapse to zero.     

Optimal price setting during a currency changeover: theory and evidence from french restaurants

This article studies firms’ price-setting decision during a currency changeover. Buyers’ difficulties with the new nominal price level may create incentives to raise prices temporarily but doing so comes at the risk of damaging a seller’s standing as a fair retailer. We model firms’ trade-off and study conditions under which increasing or decreasing prices is optimal. A difference-in-differences analysis based on micro-data of French restaurants strongly supports the model’s predictions. Prices during the 2002 changeover in the European Monetary Union were less likely to rise in larger restaurants, nontourist restaurants and when prices were advertised.     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型的国际油价预测比较分析

在分析影响油价波动因素的基础上,利用1986年1月至2010年12月的WTI国际原油价格月度数据,分别建立ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价进行预测。并通过对2011年1月至2012年4月WTI原油价格进行外推预测,检验模型的预测效果。比较分析发现,在短期预测中,ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价的预测均比较准确,但当油价由于受到重大事件的影响而有较大波动时,模型的预测精度下降;在长期预测中,GARCH模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型;整体来看,GARCH模型预测的精度高于ARIMA模型。因此,在国际油价预测中,用GARCH模型是比较合适的。     

A comparative analysis of independent director appointments on stock price behaviour: an empirical investigation based on the Markov regime-switching model

In 2002, the Taiwanese government regulated that new companies should appoint independent directors for good corporate governance. The purpose of this article is to compare appointing independent directors' motivation of structural changes in stock behaviour. The empirical results showed that the companies with mandatory or voluntary independent director appointments significantly reduced both stock returns and risks over 2000–2006.     

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia: Evidence of state‐specific heterogeneity

This paper estimates country‐wide and state‐level income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia for the period 1999Q1–2013Q2 using the National Electricity Market data and the autoregressive‐distributed lag model. The results suggest that the long‐run income and price elasticities are inelastic and are statistically significant with theoretically consistent signs. The country‐wide income and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.41 and ?0.38, respectively. It is also found that there exists state‐specific heterogeneity in both speed and magnitude of the electricity consumption adjustment in response to changes in income and electricity price. These results have important policy implications, including the need to use state‐specific elasticities in the scenario analysis of the energy pricing policy.