贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长

本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,（1）我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。（2）年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。（3）外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。（4）1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。     

The Exchange Rate: A Shock Absorber or Source of Shocks in Turkey?

This study investigates the role of the exchange rate as shock-absorber as opposed to a source of its own shocks in Turkey during the period from 1990 to 2009 by employing a structural VAR framework with long-run and short-run restrictions. We find that the economic shocks have predominantly been asymmetric relative to one of the largest trading partner, the US. Our results provide evidence of the fact that while the major source of variability in exchange rates in the pre-2001 crisis period is mainly nominal shocks, a large proportion of the exchange rate variability can be attributed to supply and demand shocks in the post-2001 crisis period. This suggets that, rather than reacting to shocks to the foreign exchange market, such as shifts in risk premia, the exchange rate moves mainly in response to the real shocks during the post-2001 crisis period. Hence, there is a sizeable role for exchange rate stabilization during this period, absorbing those shocks and therefore requiring opposed monetary policy responses.     

在华跨国公司的独资化倾向有可能被扭转吗?——基于产业结构视角的分析

在华跨国公司的独资化倾向有可能被扭转吗?这是一个被学术界忽略的问题。笔者从产业结构视角出发,分析了产业结构因素对跨国公司独资化倾向的影响。研究结果表明,一个产业的市场化程度、外资产业政策、资金密集度、营销强度和跨国公司的独资化倾向正相关;一个产业的竞争强度和跨国公司的独资化倾向负相关。在此基础上,只有提高一个产业的竞争强度,才能从根本上扭转在华跨国公司的独资化倾向。     

外商在华直接投资行业分布的非均衡增长研究——基于行业数据的面板分析

本文搜集与整理了改革开放以来中国农林牧渔业、工业、建筑业、交通运输仓储和邮电业、批发零售贸易和餐饮业中的相关数据,进行面板数据分析,来考察究竟是哪些因素吸引了外资的大量流入。实证结果表明,从整体上来看,外商对华直接投资选择行业时最先考虑的因素是行业生产规模,其次是规划规模,然后是生产成本,而研发费用支出对促进FDI流入的作用并不明显。进一步对工业数据进行协整及误差修正分析却发现,从长期来看研发费用的支出对FDI的吸引作用很大。这两个不同的实证结果充分说明,与工业相比,中国的其它行业还需大力开展研究与开发,以吸引外商在华直接投资。     

汇率制度能影响外汇市场压力和央行干预吗

按照Stavarek（2007）的方法和标准,分别计算了2002年1月到2011年12月期间人民币对美元的外汇市场压力及中央银行干预指数。结果显示,人民币实行参考一篮子货币的汇率制度与盯住美元的汇率制度相比,不仅没有减轻外汇市场压力,反而加大了外汇干预压力。汇率制度不是影响外汇市场压力的决定因素,但不同的汇率制度却对我国央行外汇市场干预程度产生了较大的影响。在人民币实行参考一篮子货币的汇率制度下,央行干预程度明显降低,汇率决定的市场化程度相应提高。     

Does anti-bribery enforcement deter foreign investment?

This article presents the first empirical evidence that bilateral fixed capital flows fall in response to anti-bribery enforcement actions. We hand-collect data on individual enforcement actions initiated by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and show that anti-bribery enforcement in a country is followed by a 40% reduction in foreign fixed capital investments made by US companies in that country.     

对跨国公司R＆D分散化影响因素的分析

从20世纪80年代，跨国公司R＆D的分散化开始突出。这种分数化已不再局限于发达国家之间的交叉投资，还扩展到发展中国家。本把R＆D分散化的影响因素分为先决条件、内在动机和促进因素分别阐述并结合实例进行分析。     

跨国公司在华投资的新趋势和新特点

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机爆发后,跨国公司经营风险不可控程度上升和市场流动性水平下降,使跨国公司减少了对外直接投资的项目与金额。随着中国大规模投资计划的推出,跨国公司为了提升竞争力和保住中国市场而进行了相应的战略调整,对华投资出现了新趋势和新特点,主要表现为跨国公司投资资金技术密集型项目增加,服务业成为跨国公司投资的重点,跨国公司投资的集群化和独资化倾向上升。跨国公司通过更合理、高效的经营战略和方式调整以保持公司可持续发展和对利润的最大化诉求。     

汇率波动下跨国公司战略投资期权价值研究

跨国公司可以在全球范围内进行资源的最佳配置,实行区域间生产和销售的战略调整,并能够利用汇率波动产生战略投资的灵活性,获得灵活性期权。文章通过将汇率的运动过程模型化为简单的几何布朗运动,探讨了汇率风险不确定条件下跨国公司投资灵活性的期权定价,并结合具体算例对期权价值的各个影响因素进行了分析,最后给出相应的启示。     

Reforming the Taxation of Multijurisdictional Enterprises in Europe

In 2001, the European Commission proposed replacing the currentsystem of taxation of multinational companies by the taxationof a consolidated base, computed at the level of all the Europeanentities of a multinational enterprise, and then distributedfor taxation purposes among the various jurisdictions in whichthese entities operate, according to pre-established criteria.In this article, we propose a discussion, especially focusingon two related issues, the choice of the formula and the compositionof the consolidating area—either the entire European Union(EU) or some Member States within an Enhanced Cooperation Agreement—,as well as on their impact on the size and distribution of taxrevenue and economic activity, and on the intensity of tax competition.Our tentative policy conclusion is that the reform deservessupport provided that (i) the formula puts emphasis on criteriathat the firm may not too easily manipulate, (ii) the activitiesof the multijurisdictional enterprise are enough mobile, (iii)the consolidation is made compulsory within the consolidatingarea and (iv) the consolidating area protects its capacity toactually levy tax by adopting a crediting system vis-à-visthe rest of the world. (JEL code: H32, H73, H87)     

论我国高额外汇储备之痛

近年来中国外汇储备的高速增长引起了广泛的关注。本文从分析外汇储备应有及现有规模的视角出发，阐迷了高额储备给我国经济发展带来的负面效应，并从控制储备增长和提高储备利用率两方面提出了应对措施。     

Where a contract is signed determines its value: Chinese provincial variation in utilized vs. contracted FDI flows

There are major differences between ex ante corporate investment plans and ex post investments. The case of China is useful for understanding this problem because there is substantial time series and cross sectional variation in the ratio of utilized to contracted FDI (UC ratio), which is less than one in most province-year observations. Provinces may believe that they are rewarded for reporting higher levels of contracted FDI, which would lead to lower UC ratios and higher policy incentives in subsequent years. Alternatively, provinces may be rewarded for reporting data more accurately, which would lead to higher UC ratios and policy incentives in subsequent years. Empirical analysis supports the second, institutional theory and suggests that provinces may increase their rate of utilizing pledged FDI by strengthening their legal systems and reducing government bureaucracy.     

跨国公司农业生物技术垄断、影响及启示

农业生物技术及其产业发展对推动农业现代化,提高农业综合实力及农业可持续发展具有重要意义,但跨国基因巨头的农业生物技术及市场垄断对发展中国家产生了许多负面影响。文章首先概述了农业生物技术跨国企业的发展及世界主要跨国农业生物技术公司;其次,从农业生物技术专利权的垄断和转基因种子市场集中度两个方面对跨国公司的农业生物技术产业垄断进行了经验分析。研究表明,垄断造成对市场价格的操纵,使发展中国家的农民收益减少,同时对发展中国家的粮食安全产生威胁。     

外派管理研究评述与展望

中国跨国公司国际化进程中外派管理面临复杂多样和难以持续的特性,在“一带一路”倡议背景下,对外派管理进行回顾并提出研究评述,在相关理论基础上,梳理外派管理的现状、动机,分析其影响因素和作用结果,最后提出外派管理未来研究方向,为中国跨国公司国际化实现可持续的、高效循环的人才管理及可持续发展和选择合理战略提供了重要思路,同时也为中国政府推进“全面开放新格局”与“一带一路”倡议提供理论支撑.