基于超效率DEA与Malmquist指数的区域研发效率评价——四大国家级城市群比较研究

选取京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区、成渝地区双城经济圈四大国家级城市群,基于超效率DEA与Malmquist指数测算2016—2018年各城市群科技研发效率。超效率DEA分析结果表明,粤港澳大湾区的研发效率均值最高,其次是成渝地区双城经济圈、长三角城市群,由于京津冀城市群科技发展不平衡问题突出,区域研发效率均值处于四大城市群之尾。Malmquist指数分析结果表明,长三角、粤港澳大湾区、京津冀城市群大部分城市都实现了技术效率正增长,而成渝地区双城经济圈的技术效率逐渐下降,与其它三大城市群存在一定差距。整体而言,四大国家级城市群的技术进步率均值高于技术效率均值,由此可见,增强地区科研能力是提升全要素生产率的关键。在实证分析我国区域研发效率的基础上,对我国城市群资源配置、优势资源禀赋、区域协同创新水平以及产学研深度合作等提出对策建议。     

基于Malmquist指数法的西部地区TFP分解研究

利用西部地区1992-2009年的面板数据,基于Malmquist指数法,考察了西部大开发战略实施前后各地区全要素生产率的变化。结果表明：大开发战略的实施使得西部地区全要素生产率的增长总体上由负值（-0.8%）转为正值（7%）,全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献由-8.8%提高到14.3%,对东部地区的追赶效应明显,但仍存在较大差距。     

中国商业银行全要素生产率分析——基于三阶段Malmquist指数模型

本文运用三阶段Malmquist指数对我国商业银行2004—2008年的全要素生产率变化情况进行研究。研究结果表明,环境变量对我国商业银行的投入变量有显著的影响,传统的Malmquist方法高估了我国商业银行全要素生产率变化指数、技术进步变化指数以及技术效率变化指数;我国银行业在2004—2008年间出现了全要素生产率的改进,这主要源于技术进步的作用;金融危机的爆发使得我国银行业整体生产率大幅度下降,但对国有商业银行的影响要小于对股份制商业银行的影响。     

中国保险业效率动态变化的Malmquist指数分析

本文运用DEA(数据包络分析方法)和Malmquist效率指数刻画了我国保险业生产效率的动态变化,并通过对生产有效性的"追赶效应"和"前沿面移动效应"的分解,得出效率动态变化的推动因素,指出技术创新和效率的提高对于保险业发展的重要作用.     

Luenberger and Malmquist Productivity Indices: Theoretical Comparisons and Empirical Illustration

This contribution establishes, from a theoretical viewpoint, the relations between the Malmquist productivity indices, that measure in either input or output orientations, and the Luenberger productivity indices, that can simultaneously contract inputs and expand outputs, but that can also measure in either input or output orientations. The main result is that a Malmquist productivity index overestimates productivity changes, since it provides productivity measures that are nearly twice those given by the Luenberger productivity index looking for simultaneous contractions of inputs and expansions of outputs. This relationship is empirically illustrated using data from 20 OECD countries over the 1974–97 period.     

The Effect of Specialisation on Banks' Efficiency: An International Comparison

This study analyses the effects of specialisation on the cost efficiency of a set of banking systems of the European Union over the period 1992–1998. Unlike in the established literature in which specialisation differences are not considered, in this paper cost inefficiencies are decomposed into two different components: the first is related to the inefficiency associated with the composition of specialisations in each banking system and the second is related to specific inefficiencies of banks within their specialisation. The results show the existence of high cost inefficiencies. However, the intra‐specialisation inefficiencies indicate that the inefficiencies of the European banking systems are much smaller when the effect of productive composition (specialisation) is discounted. This effect is much more evident in those banking systems specialised in the more costly types of business (retail banking) because their composition inefficiency is higher.     

Malmquist indices of productivity change in Portuguese banking: The deregulation period

This paper will evaluate productivity change in Portuguese banking using the Malmquist productivity index. The results show that between 1990 and 1997, banks in Portugal witnessed increased productivity and strong technological progress. Both small and large banks experienced higher productivity and technological change scores, while mid-sized institutions are putting more effort into catching-up policies. Rural banks have experienced strong productivity growth and are catching up with the best practices but lower levels of technological change. Urban banks show higher productivity growth and technological change levels. Government-owned banks have experienced lower levels of productivity change. Finally, the asset per employee ratio shows a positive correlation with the productivity scores, suggesting that this simple index is a good proxy for productivity.     

Insurance companies in Mozambique: a two-stage DEA and neural networks on efficiency and capacity slacks

This article analyses the efficiency of Mozambique insurance companies using a DEA model. Two DEA models are used and a bootstrap approach adopted. Furthermore, the efficiency scores are predicted based on neural networks. The results reveal that Mozambique insurance companies’ output-increasing potentials are severely constrained, particularly in terms of the ceded reinsurance increasing potentials. Policy implications are derived.     

中国保险业效率的实证分析

中国于2001年加入WTO,在2006年必须对外完全开放国内保险市场。然而,国内保险市场主要份额迄今仍由少数几家大型国有的或政府控制的公司所占有。由于国内保险市场欠发达,对保险的需要仍在呈现指数式上涨,所以对非国有的、海外的和合资保险公司来说存在着巨大的潜力、机遇和挑战。效率是政策制定者进一步鼓励保险业发展而关注的一个关键性因素。本文将集中探讨这个问题。本文使用了中国22家保险公司1999—2002年的一组数据,运用DEA方法评估了它们的效率分数,并应用一个计量经济学模型鉴别和确定了决定效率高低的主要因素。本文实证分析结果指出了提高保险公司效率的方向,并证明公司规模、所有制形式、营销方式和人力资本是影响保险公司效率的重要因素。本文的结论还为未来中国保险业发展的改革政策设计与执行提供了理论和经验支持。     

中国城市政府公共支出效率分析——基于四阶段DEA方法的实证研究

本文以2008年中国内地126个地级以上城市为样本数据,利用四阶段DEA方法,对中国城市公共支出效率进行了实证分析。结果显示:如果不对外部环境因素加以控制,则经典的DEA方法将会高估城市公共支出效率;在控制外部环境因素影响后,样本城市公共支出效率得分为0.353,表明在保持支出不变下,通过改善组织管理、优化支出规模及结构,公共服务供给水平可提高约64%,城市公共支出效率还有很大的提升空间;经济发达、较大的辖区面积是城市公共支出效率提升的有利条件,而人口增加对公共品供给产生的拥挤效应不利于城市公共支出效率提升。     

A GM(1,1)–Markov chain combined model with an application to predict the number of Chinese international airlines

In this paper, we propose a new dynamic analysis model which combines the first-order one-variable grey differential equation model (abbreviated as GM(1,1) model) from grey system theory and Markov chain model from stochastic process theory. We abbreviate the combined GM(1,1)–Markov chain (MC) model as MCGM(1,1) model. This combined model takes advantage of the high predictable power of GM(1,1) model and at the same time take advantage of the prediction power of Markov chain modelling on the discretized states based on the GM(1,1) modelling residual sequence. For prediction accuracy improvements, Taylor approximation is applied to MCGM(1,1) model. We call the improved version as T-MCGM(1,1) model. As an example, we use the statistical data of the number of Chinese international airlines from 1985 to 2003 for a validation of the effectiveness of the T-MCGM(1,1) model.     

Managerial efficiency in Taiwan bank branches: A network DEA

Taiwan's banking industry remains highly fragmented and competitive after a series of financial liberalization and restructuring. With the enforcement of these fiscal policies, domestic banking institutions face a more dynamic, increasingly intense and highly competitive environment even as the banking industry's overall efficiency has gradually been enhanced. This structural change has further forced individual banking institutions, especially state-owned banks, to inspect the performance of their branches and identify improvement directions so as to gain further competitive advantages. To conduct a valid, fair and reliable evaluation on Taiwan's bank branches, we integrate a two-stage series performance model and fuzzy multiobjective model. A new scheme that considers the complementation of production and intermediation activities within a branch and overcomes the shortage of the traditional network DEA methodology about DMUs cannot be assessed on a common base. The results indicate that the overall performances of mixed ownership bank branches are superior to those of state-owned bank branches, representing that the advantages of banking privatization have some remedial effects for improving the managerial inefficiency of state-owned banks. In addition, the sensitivity analysis and decision-making matrix herein help bank management to identify branches' efficiency, weakness, and directions for improvement.     

基于三阶段超效率DEA的港口运行效率研究

港口作为国内和国际贸易的关键节点,如何提高其运行效率成为焦点话题.针对目前国内港口效率低下的问题,使用超效率DEA模型来测度2007—2016年我国主要沿海港口的运行效率,研究发现港口的超效率平均值呈上升趋势,个别年份存在明显的下滑现象.由于2016年是航运港口整合的关键一年,本文对2016年的港口数据单独采用三阶段超效率DEA方法进行效率测度,第一阶段利用超效率DEA模型得出的结果进行分析,第二阶段利用随机前沿模型(SFA)将影响港口效率的腹地GDP等环境变量纳入模型,尽可能剔除随机误差和外部环境对效率的影响.第三阶段使用调整后的投入产出值重新评估港口效率,获得更加准确的港口效率排名,与第一阶段的超效率结果比较发现,前后数值存在明显差异,除青岛港和上海港外其他港口都未达到DEA有效,港口效率提升的空间较大.最后基于吞吐量-效率矩阵将港口划分为精干型、强壮型、肥胖型和瘦弱型4种类型,针对性的对每种类型的港口提出改进建议.     

基于DEA方法的税收征收效率研究──以湖北省国税系统为例

税收征管效率是税务部门的征税以尽可能低的税务行政成本,取得尽可能多的税收收入,这就需要将征税的"产出"与"投入"结合起来综合考量,DEA分析方法正是进行相对效率研究的有效途径。本文在审慎选取输入指标和输出指标的基础上,利用湖北省国税系统的统计数据,通过DEA模型,得出税收征管效率的评价与改进,并给出相关政策建议。     

我国重点城市技术创新效率的测算

提高城市技术创新能力是构建创新型国家的关键。运用数据包络分析模型测算了全国18个重点城市技术创新的总体效率、纯技术效率和纯规模效率,进而辨析其达到DEA有效的改进方向。最后,对评价结果进行分析,提出提升城市技术创新能力的相应建议。     

我国高技术产业全要素生产率分析--基于三阶段 Malmquist 指数方法

运用三阶段 Malmquist 指数方法对我国高技术产业2002-2010年的全要素生产率变化情况进行了研究。研究结果表明,环境变量和随机因素对我国高技术产业的全要素生产率有显著的影响,传统的 Malmquist 方法高估了我国高技术产业全要素生产率指数、技术进步指数及技术效率指数,运用三阶段 Malmquist 指数模型,剔除环境变量和随机因素之后,我国高技术产业在2002-2010年期间,全要素生产率呈现下降趋势,行业企业数和政府资助促进了高技术产业效率的增长,而 GDP 和科技机构数没有起到应有的促进作用。在此基础上,提出了相关的政策建议以促进高技术产业的进一步发展。     

环境规制对汽车产业生产率影响的实证研究

基于效率视角,以北京市4家汽车生产企业为例,应用数据包络法进行实证分析。使用三项投入要素和一项产出要素,运用DEAP2.1软件计算出北京市汽车产业生产效率。然后加入环保投资这项投入要素,计算出汽车产业生产效率。进而对这两种计算环境下的生产效率进行对比。结果表明:高强度的环境规制超出企业的消化能力,导致汽车产业生产效率下降;而适当有效的环境规制则能降低汽车企业生产成本,使生产效率提高。     

中国地方公共支出的产出效率及其最优水平

通过对Barro Rule单一类型政府支出模型的推广,本文建立了多类型政府支出模型,并且利用中国省级面板数据研究了不同类型公共支出的效率及其最优水平。结果显示,最优总支出水平大致在20%左右,经济建设性支出、行政性支出和社会服务性支出的最优水平大约分别为5.8%、6.6%和7.6%。     

基于DEA的“985工程”院校科研效率评价

选取不同年份的数据,应用数据包络分析方法(DEA),对"985工程"重点院校的科研数据进行了实证分析和评价,针对非DEA有效的高校如何提升科研效率提出了一些改进方向与措施,并就"985工程"院校的科研工作提出了一些可行性建议。     

Productivity change of Portuguese municipalities after local reforms

This article examines the impact of the reforms introduced in the structure of the Portuguese local administration after the bailout agreement in 2011 on the efficiency and productivity of municipalities. In order to determine a measure of productivity change, we apply the global Malmquist productivity index to assess the performance of the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the recent 6-year period 2009–2014. The overall results reveal that there was a decrease in the global productivity until 2013 followed by a notable increase in 2014 basically due to technological changes, thus it seems that the reforms have had a positive effect on the productivity of municipalities.