Convenience yield and real exchange rate dynamics: A present-value interpretation

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between the convenience yield of government bonds and the real exchange rates using monthly data from 1999 to 2018. We extend the conventional models, based on the present-value relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals, while explicitly considering the role of the convenience yield. Empirical results suggest that our present-value models can capture the dynamic properties of the real exchange rate documented in the literature, including high persistence, excess volatility and excess co-movement compared with real interest rate differentials. We also find that the sum of expected convenience yields significantly drives real exchange rate movements. Moreover, we find that foreign exchange swap market friction also plays a role in explaining real exchange rates. Finally, we find that monetary policy at the zero lower bound may be essential in real exchange rate modelling.     

Scarcity and prices

A complete set of definitions of scarcity and some theorems on the relationship between competitive prices and scarcity of commodities are introduced. Competitive prices do not always represent signals of scarcity. Anyway under the hypothesis of monotonic preferences scarce commodities have positive prices, and when all commodities are both normal and gross substitutes, prices are indices of relative scarcity. Consequently, the connection between scarcity and prices is not an absolute foundation of economic theory.     

人民币升值压力与货币政策:基于货币模型的实证分析

利用1994年1月至2008年1月的月度数据,采用外汇市场压力的货币模型,构建了人民币外汇市场升值压力指数,并利用向量自回归方法研究了中央银行国内信贷变化、中美相对经济增长率变化、中国利率水平变化与外汇市场压力之间的相互作用,探讨了美国基础货币增长、美国利率水平变化等外生变量对人民币升值压力的影响。发现中国中央银行国内信贷与人民币升值压力呈现负向关系,而中国经济增长和国内利率水平与人民币升值压力呈正向关系。当人民币升值压力增加时,货币当局的反应是减少其净国内信贷,而国内利率水平的变化则并不显著地反映人民币升值压力的变化。     

江西能源消费结构与经济发展的灰色关联分析——基于低碳经济的视角

能源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,能源消费与经济发展有着十分密切的关系。江西作为能源资源匮乏的省份,发展低碳经济是弥补劣势的重要手段。利用灰色关联分析方法具体分析了江西省能源消费结构与经济发展的关系。结果表明,江西省应改善以煤炭为主的能源消费结构,大力发展低碳经济,逐步优化产业结构和能源消费结构。     

Pricing and capacity provision in electricity markets: an experimental study

The creation of adequate investment incentives has been of great concern in the restructuring of the electricity sector. However, to achieve this, regulators have applied different market designs across countries and regions. In this paper we employ laboratory methods to explore the relationship between market design, capacity provision and pricing in electricity markets. Subjects act as firms, choosing their generation capacity and competing in uniform price auction markets. We compare three regulatory designs: (1) a baseline price cap system that restricts scarcity rents, (2) a price spike regime that effectively lifts these restrictions, and (3) a capacity market that directly rewards the provision of capacity. Restricting price spikes leads to underinvestment. In line with the regulatory intention both alternative designs lead to sufficient investment albeit at the cost of higher energy prices during peak periods and substantial capacity payments in the capacity market regime. To some extent these results confirm theoretical expectations. However, we also find lower than predicted spot market prices as sellers compete relatively intensely in capacities and prices, and the capacity markets are less competitive than predicted.     

Relative and absolute scarcity of nature. Assessing the roles of economics and ecology for biodiversity conservation

Our aim in this essay is to identify and analyze some of the difficulties with interdisciplinary integration of economic and ecological contributions to the study of biodiversity loss. We develop our analysis from a widely accepted definition of economics which is based on the concept of scarcity. Taking a closer look at this notion, we find that economics actually limits itself to a very particular aspect of scarcity, which we denote as relative scarcity. We describe in what respect the economic approach towards biodiversity is based on this notion, and also reflect on the specific understanding of the relation of humans and nature behind the economic approach. We then turn to absolute scarcity as another notion of scarcity, and show that this is not within the scope of economics, but has been a theme of ecology and ecological economics. We describe in which way ecological and ecological–economic approaches towards biodiversity are based on the idea of absolute scarcity, and also reflect on the specific understanding of the human–nature relationship behind this notion of scarcity. Against this background, we discuss the roles of economics and ecology for nature conservation. We conclude that the interdisciplinary integration of ecology and economics requires a philosophical underpinning, and suggest a framework for further research.     

Testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis: the case of Korea

This study examines the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using the data from the Korean won–US dollar and the Korean won–Japanese yen foreign exchange markets. We extract proxies for inflation from stock market returns of Korea, the United States and Japan based on the method used by Chowdhry, Roll and Xia in 2005. We explicitly test the relative PPP hypothesis in light of the short-run price volatility using monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2012. Our findings suggest that the empirical test results from the entire sample period do not support the relative PPP hypothesis. However, the results from the sample period excluding the Asian Financial Crisis period show that the relative PPP hypothesis holds for the Korean won–US dollar market with a moderate magnitude of inflation impact, but not for the Korean won–Japanese yen market. Abrupt changes in exchange rates during the crisis period may have affected the relationship between inflation and exchange rates. This result also suggests that factors other than inflation might have affected the Korean won–Japanese yen exchange rate.     

Competitiveness and R&D competition revisited

This paper formulates a duopoly model of firms concerned with relative profits as well as their own profits and investigates the relationship between the degree of competitiveness in a market and R&D expenditure. We find a non-monotone relationship between the two variables. When the duopoly market is not particularly competitive and when it is highly competitive, R&D activities are intensified. Thus, we are able to obtain similar results to both the pro-competitive and the Schumpeterian views in a single framework. We also discuss the welfare implications of changing competitiveness and consider cases of oligopoly and R&D cooperation as extensions to our basic model.     

A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data

Abstract.  The paper tests Hotelling's prediction that scarcity rent for a non‐renewable resource will rise at the rate of discount in a market equilibrium. We perform the test using data for old‐growth timber, a resource that is effectively non‐renewable. In contrast to previous studies, for this resource a measure of scarcity rent is directly observable in the form of stumpage price bids in timber auctions. We construct a model that allows for replanting and captures the institutional framework of the western U.S. timber market. The modified Hotelling rule that we derive is not rejected in several of our specifications.     

二元经济、刘易斯拐点和中国对外贸易发展战略

中国剩余劳动力的转移过程并非单向和线性的,而是由城乡相对实际收入导致的此消彼长过程。"民工荒"现象是在出口波动、农产品价格提高、城镇生活成本上升和城乡劳动力流动障碍等综合影响下出现的就业市场摩擦性现象,并不能说明刘易斯拐点的到来或中国剩余劳动力即将消失。理论测算表明,中国仍存在近1亿人的剩余劳动力需要转移,其二元经济转型仍是一个较长的过程,以劳动密集型产业为比较优势的经济发展格局并未改变。     

Heterogeneity and fine wine prices: application of the quantile regression approach

ABSTRACT

This study addresses the price heterogeneity of the five first growths of Bordeaux. We apply the quantile regression (QR) approach with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantiles. We compute the hedonic price of wine attributes for various price segments in the market. This approach is applied to a major dataset comprising approximately 50,000 transactions over the 2003–2017 period. The findings indicate that the relative hedonic prices of several wine attributes differ significantly among deciles. The implications of our results are manifold. Vintage and Parker grades have a strong impact on the variation in wine prices, and there is a hierarchy among the five first growths of Bordeaux. There is also a premium commanded by the reputation and experience of an auction house. Since the financial crisis of 2012–2013, investors have considered that the five first growths are overrated, save for the most expensive wines; for those most expensive ones, investors prefer scarcity to liquidity. These results are of import to several actors in the fine wine market: investors, for example, could use the findings herein to better diversify their wine portfolio, while auction houses could better anticipate their future sales based on consumers’ expectation.     

Export Market Performance of OECD Countries: An Empirical Examination of the Role of Cost Competitiveness

We investigate the relationship between export market shares and relative unit labour costs using a long panel of 12 manufacturing industries across 14 OECD countries. We ask how sensitive are export market shares to changes in relative costs and what determines this sensitivity? Both costs and embodied technology are important, but neither can fully explain changing export positions. We explore whether residual country-specific trends might be linked to 'deep' structural features of economies. Sensitivity to labour costs is lower in high tech industries and core ERM countries. Industry elasticities have increased, especially in industries subject to increasing product market competition.     

Ethnic divisions,contract choice,and search costs in the Guatemalan land rental market

This paper shows how ethnic diversity in a context of weak property rights enforcement can result in market segmentation. The paper analyzes how contract enforcement problems affect the joint decision of partner and contract choice by landlords in the land rental market in Guatemala. The empirical method allows partner choice to be determined not only by the characteristics and relative scarcity of the specific landowner and tenant, but also by the characteristics of other potential tenants. The results show that landowners without formal title are more likely to restrict their partners to tenants from the same ethnic group. Partner choice is found to be less important for renting with interlinked land–labor contracts.     

Forests, biomass use and poverty in Malawi

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in Africa and has faced significant deforestation over the years. This paper seeks to examine the nature of the relationship between poverty and forests in Malawi. We try to answer three sets of questions: a) what is the extent of biomass available for meeting the energy needs of the poor in Malawi and how is this distributed? b) To what extent does fuelwood scarcity affect the welfare of the poor? And c) do households spend more time in fuelwood collection in response to scarcity? We answer these questions by matching household surveys with remote-sensing data.Our analyses suggest that biomass scarcity is associated with small but significantly lower household welfare, particularly for the rural poor. At current high levels of scarcity, 80% of rural poor households are likely to benefit from an increase in biomass in the community. Rural women spend more time on fuelwood collection where biomass is scarce. The small decrease in welfare associated with biomass scarcity suggests that households cope with scarcity in a variety of ways. Any effort to reduce degradation and deforestation in Malawi has to build on a clear understanding of household adaptation to fuelwood scarcity.     

Dual labor market hypothesis and long-run income distribution

We construct a dynamic model of dual labor market, incorporating firm investment behavior and household investment behavior on education. Education enhances the trainability of individuals and thus provides qualifications for entry into the primary market. Two specifications of the model, differing in the nature of the new entrants' market, are presented; one admitting competitive adjustment in the scarcity premium of qualified entrants, while the other, a generalization of Thurow's job competition model, allocates employment through rationing. We obtain sharply different long-run determinants of income distribution between these alternative models. The result extends and qualifies existing interpretations on the schooling paradox observed in the U.S.     

Inflation, price dispersion, and market structure

In this paper, we use a novel data set containing prices from bazaars, convenience stores, and supermarkets in Istanbul to re-examine the relationship between price dispersion and inflation. Although existing evidence is mixed, we find positive and significant relationships between dispersion, on the one hand, and lagged dispersion and unexpected product-specific inflation on the other. We also find evidence that dispersion is initially decreasing in anticipated aggregate inflation but is eventually increasing. Finally, average price duration and dispersion are lowest in the bazaar. This is intuitive, since menu and search costs should be minimal in that market structure.     

广东水权制度改革与水市场建设思路

水权是水资源管理机制的重要构成部分。在水资源短缺的情况下,建立可交易的水权制度能够提高水资源在不同用水部门或用水地区的配置效率。本文在剖析广东省现行水权制度的基础上,探讨了合理配置水资源的水权制度,提出了建设水市场的建议。     

资源约束与地区经济收敛——基于资源稀缺性与资源配置力的考察

本文从资源稀缺性出发,提出并运用资源配置力这一新的分析工具,对2003年以来中国所面临的经济增长、资源约束与区域经济变动状况作了分析。结果表明,市场供求关系变化导致资源稀缺的结构性变迁与地域性转移,使地区资源配置力与经济竞争力发展相应变动。东部沿海能源与矿产等资源短缺地区备受资源约束递增的压力;中西部尤其是能源与矿产等资源富集地区资源配置力与经济竞争力明显递增,从而出现地区经济收敛趋势。     

论循环经济与市场经济的协同性

循环经济与市场经济之间具有协同共进的关系.两者都遵循基于自然资源稀缺性的成本与效益原则.循环经济能够从根本上消除环境外部不经济性,促进市场经济规范有效.循环经济发展模式体现社会经济环境效益的统一,是社会经济的理性选择.