Construction of legal system of carbon emissions trading in China

Countries in the world have taken a variety of means to control carbon emissions based on the serious situation of global warming,the concept of low-carbon economy and the provisions about emissions in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change（UNFCCC） and the Kyoto Protocol.With the measures of emissions reductions,the system of carbon emissions trading is taking shape.It is necessary for China as the big natural resources consumption country to establish its own carbon emissions trading system.By introducing the carbon emissions trading system of the European Union,America and Japan,and analyzing the market and policies been formed,the carbon emissions trading system in China can be established from the initial configuration of the emissions rights,the subject and object of carbon emissions trading,establishing the carbon emissions trading exchange and supervising and regulating the carbon emissions trading.     

我国能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的历史特征研究

过去50年是全球气候变暖最显著的50年,全球气候变化已经成为国际社会最为关注的问题。我国是世界上最大的发展中国家,二氧化碳总排放量已经跃居世界第一,担负着减少二氧化碳排放,遏制全球气候变暖的重任。文章采用表观能耗估算法对我国大陆地区的历史能源消耗产生的二氧化碳排放清单进行了估算。研究结果显示,我国以煤为主的能源结构和经济发展优先的发展模式导致了我国巨大的二氧化碳排放量,虽然二氧化碳排放总量每年递增,但是单位GDP产生的二氧化碳排放强度却比较低,呈逐年递减的趋势,人均二氧化碳排放量水平相对发达国家也较低。文章研究结论为我国能源安全和生态环境的可持续发展提供了研究基础。     

Research on driving forces for rural settlement land changes in China

During the rapid urbanization period, the contradiction between demand for the construction land and the preservation of cultivated land for food security is getting more and more serious in China. With the urbanization the rural settlement land is increasing instead of decreasing; This paper aims at.finding the driving forces for rural settlement land expanston. Based on land use change survey data （1996-2006） by the Ministry of Land and Resources P. R. C., this paper find, that per capita area for rural settlement land is more than per capita area for city; township and industrial land in each province except Tibet. Besides, rural settlement land area and per capita rural settlement land area are increasing while the rural poputation is decreasing in most provinces. The main problems of rural settlement land use are low efficiency, high vacancy rate, chaotic layout and illegal occupancy. Then the driving forces [br rural settlement land expansion, including economic development, family income, family scale, psychological factors, urbanization, transportation, lack of planning, limited circulation of dwelling-house land and imperfect sociat security, ate explored based on above analysis, Finalty, policy recommendations, in view of different influencing factors, are put forward to control the disorder expansion of rural setttement land.     

中国农村人口省际省内迁移机制研究

本文基于农村劳动力转移理论和人口迁移理论,较为全面、综合地从8个层次选择了一系列变量,采用多元回归分析法对各个层面的影响因素进行的精确分析。研究发现,农村剩余劳动力省内转移与省际转移的驱动机制不同。相对较高的迁移成本使得跨省迁移的决策更需要劳动力理性的判断和思考.转移决策更多地取决于就业机会。     

中国与欧盟人口老龄化问题比较研究

中国与欧盟的老龄化模式不同,在人口老龄化的原因、过程及社会经济后果等方面具有不同的特征。欧盟国家在应对老龄化社会问题方面所采取的措施及其经验值得我国借鉴。在比较分析中国与欧盟人口老龄化过程、原因、后果的基础上,研究欧盟国家应对人口老龄化问题的措施及对我国的启示。应不断深化社会福利制度改革,规避人口老龄化经济风险;整合各种养老资源,完善现代养老保障体系;适时调整人口发展相关政策,优化未来人口年龄结构。     

Trends in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars and buses

In this work we develop aggregate car ownership and bus fleet models in order to forecast and compare fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and buses. Greece was selected as a case study, being a country fairly representative of lower-income Mediterranean and Eastern European countries and data were collected for the period 1970 to 2002. Percent adults in the population, per capita gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, car occupancy and bus kilometers were predictors included in the car ownership and bus fleet multiple regression models. A shift in the overall trend of both models around 1995 was explained as a slope change of per capita gross domestic product, possibly reflecting the impact of a boom of the Greek Stock Market along with a retirement program for older vehicles. Predictor variables were forecast via Box-Jenkins and the models were subsequently used to develop car ownership and bus fleet forecasts to the year 2010. We predict that the contribution of cars to total CO₂ emissions will rise to an astounding 95% of total CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport (excluding taxis and mopeds), an effect expected in other Mediterranean and Eastern European countries with socioeconomic characteristics similar to Greece. Suggestions for further research include developing regional car ownership forecasts in order to compare the dynamics of different regions within a country and looking into other land transportation means (such as mopeds, taxicabs and railway).     

北京市二氧化碳排放的驱动因素及减排路径

实现低碳发展对北京市意义重大。北京市近二十年来人口城镇化水平迅速提高,二三产业结构发生巨变,能源效率持续提高,因此运用STIRPAT模型对北京市（1995—2012年）二氧化碳排放的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：城镇化、人口、产业结构、能源强度、人均GDP依次对北京市二氧化碳排放产生正向驱动作用。北京市低碳发展任重道远,需要在控制人口、转变经济发展方式、深度优化产业结构和能源结构等方面采取强有力的措施。     

未来三十年我国及省际人口变动趋势

分析了我国人口的变动特点,并对未来三十年我国及省际人口的变动趋势作了预测,论述了我国未来人口的空间分布变动特点。     

Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member

This paper investigates the long run Granger causality relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Turkey, controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor. The most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to Granger cause energy consumption, but the reverse is not true. The lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions, Turkey does not have to forgo economic growth.     

新时期人口流动和流动人口的统计学研究

20世纪80年代以来，中国发生了规模空前的人口流动，人口流动统计必被提到议事日程上来。中国特有的户籍制度引起人们对人口流动概念理解的歧义，从而出现社会上和学术界对相关概念和指标使用的混乱。笔者根据中国的国情，从统计学的角度对与流动人口有关的问题进行了探讨，提出了新的人口流动概念，并在此基础上，设计了一套科学适用的流动人口统计指标体系，以期解决当前存在且亟待解决的问题。     

市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发展的影响

探讨了改革开放以来中国的市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径的变化与中国城市化发展之间的关系。市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径等行政因素对中国城市化水平有重要影响。当前,中国的城市化水平具有高估的现象,表现在城镇人口中农业人口的比重过高和城镇就业人口中从事第一产业的人口比重较高。未来中国城市化的发展在提高城市化水平的同时,更重要的是需要提高城镇人口中非农业人口的比重,改善城镇人口的就业结构,同时制定客观、合理的市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径,使中国的城市化水平真正反映中国城市化的实际发展状况。     

中国人口、人力资本变化趋势

利用多状态人口预测模型,以2000年人口普查为基础数据,在对数据进行评估和修订的基础上,综合相关研究成果对未来生育水平、死亡水平、人口迁移和教育转换等参数进行估计,预测了2000年到2030年人口规模的变化,对未来人口的年龄结构特别是老龄化和未来人口和劳动年龄人口的人力资本进行了预测,并分析了城市化和人口迁移对我国未来人口发展的影响。预测结果对我国编制人口规划、制定应对老龄化、提高人力资本和合理利用劳动力的有关政策具有重要意义。     

中国的城市化:从空间到人口

城市空间的扩张仅仅是城市化进程加速的前提,城市社会关系的和谐、福利的公平分享才是城市化的本质所在。我国城市化在经历了空间的快速扩张之后,今后要解决的重点问题是加速人口的城市化进程,进一步协调利益分配关系,实现城市福利的分享和城市经济的可持续发展。     

中国工业分行业碳排放影响因素分解研究

采用2004~2010年中国各行业不同能源类型的相关统计数据,基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的计算方法,计算了中国工业分行业各类能源消耗碳排放量;并应用LMDI法对中国工业分行业能源消耗碳排放量影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:在这7年中,中国工业能源消费碳排放年均增长8.18%,比工业增加值平均增速高5.26%;在对经济增长、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构四个因素的分析中可知,经济增长和能源强度的升高是中国能源碳排放持续增长的主导原因,能源结构对减少碳排放有较小贡献,产业结构对促进中国工业能源碳排放减少有很大贡献。通过对中国工业三大行业的进一步分析可知,制造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业对中国工业能源碳排放的增加有较大影响。     

基于模糊层次分析法的西部人口素质问题分析

基于模糊层次分析法对中国西部人口素质问题进行综合评价,建立了西部人口素质问题量化模型,为合理解决西部人口素质问题提供决策依据。     

The role of trade openness and investment in examining the energy-growth-pollution nexus: empirical evidence for China and India

Most of the existing literature dealing with the relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth either suffers from ignoring relevant variables such as trade openness or investment, or suffers from using econometric methods that are unable to distinguish between short- and long-term causality and are not robust to the degree of integration of time series used for the analysis. This article suggests using the autoregressive distributed lag approach along with additional explanatory variables such as measures of trade and investment to shed a new light on the link between emissions, energy consumption and income in the two largest and energy-intensive developing economies: China and India. Our results, over the 1971–2009 period, provide evidence that investment plays a major role in shaping the relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and income in China while this is not the case in India. Furthermore, trade openness is found to play a key function in the short term in China but does not contribute to the emissions-energy-growth scenario in India.     

Inclusive institutions and economic growth: comparative perspective and policy implications for China

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the empirical relationship between the presence of inclusive institutions and the pattern of economic growth in a cross-country setting. We find evidence that the presence of inclusive institutions, indicated by political democracy, positively affects consumption share. In turn, the increase of the latter in the preceding year is associated with a significantly higher rate of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The link from democracy to TFP growth via consumption is stronger for countries of higher levels of income. These findings suggest that institutional inclusiveness may have become increasingly important for economic growth when the level of income rises. We also provide preliminary evidence that consumption may have facilitated productivity growth via the channels of increasing innovations and reducing social conflicts. The findings shed lights on the structural transformations toward a more inclusive and sustainable model of growth in China today.

Abbreviations: FE: GMM: Generalized method of moments PWT: TFP: Total factor productivity     

Trend-cycle decomposition allowing for multiple smooth structural changes in the trend of US real GDP

A key feature of Flexible Fourier Form (FFF) is that the essential characteristics of multiple structural changes can be captured using a small number of low frequency components from a Fourier approximation. We introduce a variant of the FFF into the trend function of US real GDP in order to allow for gradual effects of unknown numbers of structural changes occurring at unknown dates. We find that the hypothesis of no changes can be rejected, and the Fourier components are significant. Our new cycle matches the NBER chronology very well, especially for the Great Recession of 2009.     

东西部人口再生产与人口转变差距的影响因素探析

经济社会发展的不平衡性;计划生育政策及其实施效果的地区差异;自然地理条件的殊异;以及民族文化的反差, 是影响东西部人口再生产及其转变的重要致因, 四个因素的共同作用决定了东西部人口再生产状况及其转变差距。     

中国碳排放强度与影响因素的关联分析

碳排放强度与影响因素的关联程度,直接影响正确判断和把握碳排放强度的发展方向。通过分析碳排放强度及其影响因素的灰色关联度大小,来制定控制碳排放强度的短期和长期政策。文章基于美国橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分享中心(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,CDIAC)提供的我国2000-2011年全国碳排放量数据,核算出中国各年度的碳排放强度,通过采用灰色系统理论中灰色关联分析方法,分别从静态、动态的视角研究中国碳排放强度与技术进步、人口、经济增长、产业结构、能源价格以及城镇化率的关联关系,取得的研究结果表明,技术进步是影响我国碳排放强度的主要因素,其次是产业结构和人口;技术进步对碳排放强度的绝对关联关系和相对关联关系都是最大;能源价格影响碳排放强度的相对关联度较高,但是能源价格的绝对影响因素较低。因此中国应该在发展低碳经济建设的同时,综合考量各个影响因素,积极调整相关政策,科学实现我国碳减排目标。