Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model—Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market

This paper focuses on detecting hot and cold IPO cycles in the Chinese A-share market using a Markov regime switching model. We introduce a set of observations to measure IPO activities, which include numbers of IPOs issued, levels of underpricing, market conditions and duration time from prospectus and listing, and thus establish a model to estimate these activities' average performance in hot and cold periods respectively. It is found that a hot period is related with an abundant supply of IPOs, high levels of underpricing, positive market conditions and short waiting time to listing after prospectus issue. Further, this paper depicts the turning points of hot and cold periods across the period from 1994 to 2005 for each observation. The cycles detected by the number of IPOs per month are the benchmark and then these cycles' robustness is tested by the other observations.     

Financial characteristics of Australian initial public offerings from 1994 to 1999

A variety of financial characteristics of Australian initial public offerings (IPOs) for the period 1994–1999 are explored. A number of previous Australian studies have investigated the initial day underpricing and longer term underperformance of IPOs and this study updates those papers. This paper partitions the IPO data into no liability/limited liability; share option/no share option; underwriter option/no underwriter option and dividend reinvestment/no dividend reinvestment characteristics to better understand the types of IPOs that list on the Australian Stock Exchange. The data supports the findings of previous studies in that IPOs are underpriced at the time of listing and underperform the market in the first year following their listing.     

Government Underpricing of Share‐Issue Privatizations

Abstract *** :  The purposes of the paper are to determine whether governments underprice shares in fixed‐price share‐issue privatizations (SIPs) and, if so, what their motivations are for doing so. This paper develops three models of SIP underpricing: one based on revenue goals, one based on political goals and an inclusive model which supposes that the level of underpricing depends on both government revenue goals and political goals. These models are estimated using an international sample of 104 SIPs from 25 countries. We find that, on average, SIPs are underpriced by approximately the same amount as private sector initial public offerings (IPOs). This is not consistent with the sole goal of revenue maximization because SIPs should not require the same degree of underpricing as IPOs. The inclusive regression fits the data well and indicates that both revenue and political goals affect the level of SIP underpricing .     

Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings: The Case of Portugal

This paper analyzes the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon in Portugal. We show that the ‘hot issue’ market of 1987, coinciding with a speculative bubble in the stock market, is well explained by investor sentiment theories and that the issuing firms seized a ‘window of opportunity’ provided by excessive demand to offer and list their shares. In IPOs prior to the 1987 crash, underpricing is very high while there is a strong reversion to fundamentals in the long run. In the period 1988–2004, we find lower IPO underpricing and overall no evidence of long-run underperformance of IPO firms. Bookbuilding IPOs are more underpriced than other price setting systems IPOs, and firms with seasoned public offerings show abnormal returns in the long run.

THE PERFORMANCE AND LONG-RUN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHINESE IPO MARKET

Abstract.  We study the short-run and long-run performance of 340 and 409 IPOs, respectively, listed on China's two exchanges from 1996 to 1997. We find that the average underpricing is 127.3%, and that the average market-adjusted cumulative return and buy-and-hold return over the three years after listing are 10.3% and 10.7%, respectively, which are both significantly positive at the 5% level. We then use a cross-sectional analysis to explain the long-run out-performance of Chinese IPOs, and find that firms with lower government ownership, smaller offering sizes, high-tech features and lower initial returns perform better in the long-run.     

Evidence on the effect of ‘Claw-Back’ provisions on IPO share allocation and underpricing in Hong Kong

The article examines share allocation practices of over 300 initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong during the years immediately following the enacting of a ‘Claw-Back’ provision for IPO share reallocation. The examination of exhaustive micro-level data reveals that small (uninformed, retail) investors earn higher initial returns than large investors. Before the enacting of the ‘Claw-Back’ provision, small investors were unfavourably treated in relation to large investors. The pattern now prevailing in the proportion of shares allocated to small and large investors also differs from that observed previously. When attempting to isolate the determinants of IPO underpricing in Hong Kong, the article also shows that both the ‘informed demand’ hypothesis and the signalling effect of underwriters’ reputation are significant determinants of underpricing. Such result, not visible when pooled OLS regressions are used, becomes apparent through the use of a system of simultaneous equations.     

Underpricing of venture backed IPOs: a meta-analysis approach

ABSTRACT

Listing firms are subject to underpricing mainly because of asymmetries of information, but IPOs backed by a venture capitalist are generally found to be subject to less underpricing. Although this condition is commonly verified by the empirical evidence, a consistent number of studies finds contrasting results. This paper aims to answer to the question: do venture capitalists effectively reduce underpricing at IPO? Evidence provides a negative answer, with venture-backed IPOs having higher underpricing especially in US markets. Meta-regression results confirm the different effect of VC between US and European IPOs. Results overall suggest that other explanations on underpricing might hold in US markets.     

Information content of lock-up provisions in initial public offerings

An overwhelmingly large proportion of initial public offerings (IPOs) report lock-up provisions that prohibit existing stockholders from selling their shares within a specified period after the offering date. These lock-up periods may last as long as 3 years. Because influential buyers request the lock-up, we conjecture that the length conveys credible information pertinent to the risk of the IPO. Analyzing 729 IPOs from January 1990 to December 1992, we found that the lock-up period signals the issuer's riskiness and that a 180-day lock-up period seems to be the norm. Any departure from the norm suggests more uncertainty about a firm's value and thus results in deeper IPO underpricing as well as a larger underwriter spread. We also found that thin-trading activity occurring shortly after the expiration of the lock-up period is perceived by the market as good news, while heavy trading is regarded as bad news.     

IPO underpricing and flotation methods in Taiwan – a stochastic frontier approach

Adopting stochastic frontier analysis, this article studies the pricing model and underpricing phenomenon of the initial public offerings (IPOs) in Taiwan and further elucidates the potential impact of offering mechanisms on underpricing. The sampling period is from 1996 to 2003, in which 647 IPOs are selected. Empirical results suggest that issuing firms with greater earning potentials, less risk or less asymmetric information have lower underpricing. Furthermore, the variables included to explain underpricing are mostly significant, especially the proxy variable for flotation method. Observed mean IPO underpricing is 20.59% in the sample period, compared to 17.12% for the subgroup using the auction method. This statistically significant difference implies that the introduction of the auction method can help reduce IPO underpricing.     

IPOs’ signalling effects for speculative stock detection: evidence from the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Using a unique data set from the Thai stock market about the so-called, ‘Turnover List (TOL)’ of speculative stocks spanning the period 2004–2012, we investigate and provide new evidence on the relationship between IPOs’ pricing effects and subsequent classification as speculative investments. To be more specific, we examine the signalling effects for the detection of speculative stocks in relation to the degree of their prior IPOs underpricing. We also employ the market-feedback hypothesis to investigate this signalling process. Our results reveal a significant positive relationship between the magnitudes of the IPO underpricing and the probability of an IPO firm being classified officially as speculative on the TOL. Furthermore, we find that a 6-month abnormal return after going public increases the probability of speculative dealing in the IPOs. Next, we consider all listed firms in the Thai stock market and highlight the role of both abnormal return and trading volume in the transmission of probability for appearing on the TOL. In addition, we find that IPOs and non-dividend paying companies further increase the risk of being on the TOL.     

Excess demand for labor, unemployment, and theories of the Phillips curve

This article has two purposes. First, to examine the assumption that it is possible to map uniquely between unemployment and excess demand for labor; this assumption plays a key role in the theory of the Phillips curve. We show that as both unemployment and excess demand for labor are endogenous and simultaneously determined, in general it is not possible to obtain a unique mapping between unemployment and excess demand for labor and that the Lipsey and Barro and Grossman derivations of the Phillips curve are invalid. Secondly, the article recommends that wage, employment, and unemployment behavior be modelled using short-run supply and demand curves, that is, in a Marshall-Hicks temporary equilibrium framework.     

中国股市增发新股抑价的程度和原因

本文对 2 0 0 0年 1月 1日～ 2 0 0 2年 6月 2 0日中国深沪两市所有增发新股的实证分析表明 ,增发新股首日上市的平均抑价率为 15 .6 9%。抑价率小于 15 %的公司个数占总体的 6 7% ,抑价率小于 30 %的公司个数则占到总体的 81%。增发数量 ,增发前一年每股收益和增发市盈率对增发新股抑价率影响显著 ,其中 ,增发数量 ,增发前一年每股收益与增发新股抑价率呈U型的二次函数关系 ,在二次函数的拐点出现前 ,增发新股数量的信息效应大于供给效应 ,增发前一年每股收益的质量效应大于投资效应 ,拐点出现之后 ,则与此相反。     

行业收益、国际航运业IPO与船舶融资选择——基于1984～2007年数据分析

在阐述行业收益差异基础上分析影响航运股权融资因素,针对航运企业IPO的不同表现特征选取了1984～2007年间,在主板证券交易所首次发行股票的143家全球航运企业,通过计算超常持有期收益率(BHAR)和累计超常收益率(CAR),分析其短期与长期价格表现。认为航运企业首次公开发行抑价与公司年龄、上市所在交易所的声誉和发行期间市场行情正相关,与承销商声誉负相关;从长期来看,航运企业首次公开发行五个月后表现欠佳。希望通过研究某些体制因素如何影响航运企业IPO抑价,以期对船舶融资选择提供相关建议。     

A note on the pricing of IPOs

This paper studies the pricing of IPOs in a tractable model in which an investment bank faces some investors with superior information. We show how this can lead to underpricing and we make a number of empirical predictions.     

What causes the IPO underpricing? New evidence from China’s SME market

ABSTRACT

We study 10-year IPO initial returns in China’s small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) board between 2006 and 2016, including 755 IPO samples. At the same time, we test how policy changes of IPO pricing and trading mechanism affect first-day initial returns. Our article adopts the stochastic frontier approach to estimate the fair value of IPOs and decompose the components of deliberate underpricing and mis-valuation factors, then using linear regressions investigate correlation between first-day initial returns and deliberate underpricing or mis-valuation factors. We find it is mis-valuation factors, especially, the irrational behaviour of individual investors that mainly cause the IPO underpricing in China’s SME market rather than deliberate underpricing. Besides, influenced by IPO pricing policies, the characteristic of IPO pricing varies from period to period.     

Who leaves money on the table? The role of founder identity in Hong Kong

This study investigates the effect of corporate governance factors on the underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong, and the results show that this effect is significant. IPOs are categorized into four subgroups based on the role of the founder: (1) no-founder firms (companies with no specific founder), (2) pure-founder firms (companies whose founder is neither the company’s chairman of the board nor its CEO), (3) founder-chairman/CEO firms (companies whose founder is either the company’s chairman of the board or its CEO) and (4) founder-chairman-CEO firms (companies whose founder is the chairman and CEO). The results demonstrate a significant descending pattern for the underpricing level of the four subgroups, which can be explained by the varying incentive and behaviour mechanisms that result from the various founder identities.     

Possibility of an Experimental Approach to Investment Studies

Differences between male and female management style, risk aversion, investment strategies, and financial decision making can be found in economic, management, psychology, and social literature. There are no published studies, however, linking gender issues with valuation. In this article, we consider differences in pricing female- versus male-led initial public offerings. Specifically, we find no difference in firm characteristics between a female-led and a male-led IPO, and no difference in underpricing between male-led and female-led IPOs after controlling for firm-specific variables. Our evidence suggests that in a market such as IPOs, where subjects share more similar opportunity sets, wealth, and knowledge, gender bias does not exist.     

Priced on the note: the case of Japanese IPOs

ABSTRACT

This article examines the pricing of Japanese IPOs: 54.26% are priced in 1,000 Japanese yen increments (The Japanese yen (JPY) has denominations of banknotes and coins. Banknotes are in 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000-yen. Coins are in 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500-yen. One thousand banknotes are similar to US $10 dollars. Coins are considered as changes in Japan.) (note-ending IPOs), an economically large increment on a per-share basis that is equivalent to 10 US dollar increments assuming an exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 100 Japanese yen. The number of note-ending IPOs increases with price levels and pricing uncertainty, supporting the negotiation hypothesis. Note-ending IPOs are associated with higher volatility, higher underwriters’ fees, wider filing price range, smaller deal size, shorter firm age, and lower underwriter reputation. Price clustering contributes to IPO underpricing. The initial returns are 60.44% higher for note-ending relative to coin-ending IPOs. These results shed light on the pricing of Japanese IPOs due to negotiations and on investment opportunities with note-ending IPOs.