A reappraisal of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle

Several explanations have been put forward for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We suggest that a simple explanation for the puzzle is the use of the root mean square error (RMSE) to measure forecasting accuracy, presenting a rationale as to why it is difficult to beat the random walk in terms of the RMSE. By using exactly the same exchange rates, time periods and estimation methods as those of Meese and Rogoff, we find that their results cannot be overturned even if the models are estimated with time-varying coefficients. However, we also find that the random walk can be outperformed by the same models if forecasting accuracy is measured in terms of the ability to predict direction, in terms of a measure that combines magnitude and direction and in terms of profitability.     

Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?

Structural breaks have been suggested by several economists as a possible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle, in the sense that an exchange rate model can outperform the random walk in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting error if the period under investigation is free of structural breaks. The results indicate that structural breaks cannot explain the inability of the flexible price monetary model to outperform the random walk. The only plausible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle is that forecasting accuracy is traditionally assessed by magnitude-only measures. When forecasting accuracy is assessed by alternative measures that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of error, the monetary model can outperform the random walk regardless of the presence or otherwise of structural breaks.     

Why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk? An application of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle to stock prices

Some economists suggest that the Meese–Rogoff puzzle is equally applicable to the stock market, in the sense that no model of stock prices can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We argue that this is not a puzzle and that we should expect nothing, but this result if forecasting accuracy is measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) and similar metrics that take into account the magnitude of the forecasting error only. We demonstrate by using two models for dividend-paying and nondividend-paying stocks that as price volatility rises, the RMSE of the random walk rises, but the RMSE of the model rises even more rapidly, making it unlikely for the model to outperform the random walk.     

The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

This article shows that global capital markets cannot, by themselves, achieve net transfers of financial capital between countries and that both the integration of global financial markets and the integration of global goods markets are needed to achieve net transfers of capital between countries. Frictions (barriers to mobility) in one or both of these markets can impede net transfers of capital between countries, produce the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) results and prevent real interest rates from being equalized across countries. Moreover, there is empirical evidence that barriers to the mobility of goods and services are an important obstacle to international capital mobility.     

The ‘real’ explanation of the PPP puzzle

This article shows that global financial markets cannot, by themselves, achieve net transfers of financial capital and real interest rate equalization across countries and that the integration of both global financial markets and global goods markets is needed to achieve net transfers of capital and real interest rate equalization across countries. Thus, frictions (barriers to mobility) in one or both of these markets can impede the net transfer of capital between countries, produce the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) finding of high-saving-investment correlations and prevent real interest rates from being equalized across countries. Moreover, frictions in global goods markets can explain why real exchange rates deviate from purchasing power parity (PPP) for extended periods of time and can therefore also explain the PPP puzzle. Consequently, we are able to resolve two of Obstfeld and Rogoff’s (2000) ‘6 major puzzles in macroeconomics’ with essentially the same explanation.     

Testing the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for Australia

This article presents the details of an investigation into the relationship between investment and savings in Australia over the period 1960 to 2007. Using five time series techniques our results reveal that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exists in a weak form, with a lower saving retention coefficient. Granger causality tests illustrate that savings Granger causes investment, both in the short and long runs. Our results suggest Australia could effectively adopt policies that focus on increasing investment through increasing domestic savings.     

Are momentum traders different? Implications for the momentum puzzle

This article examines the puzzlingly high unexploited momentum returns from a new perspective. We analyse characteristics of momentum traders in a sample of 692 fund managers. We find that momentum traders are ‘defined’ by their short-term horizon, by a behavioural view on the market and by a somewhat lower degree of risk aversion, whereas they are like other fund managers with respect to sophistication. This is consistent with the interpretation that momentum returns may compensate for the risk of momentum trading on short-term horizons and that the short-term oriented momentum traders are not in a position to perform long-term arbitrage.     

Investment and saving in Angola and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

This article analyses the relationship between investment and savings for Angola using the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle, with monthly data from January 2000 to December 2013. Integer and fractional integration and cointegration techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between investment and savings. Several regression specifications are employed, concluding that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle is not validated for the Angolan economy. Policy implications are derived.     

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle revisited: Is the home-bias much less?

The large correlation between domestic savings and investment is well documented and is known as the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. We demonstrate that estimates of the FH coefficients using the standard framework are biased upward in the presence of highly positively correlated inward and outward capital flows. Using data for the 14 OECD countries, the analysis shows that the significant home bias documented by FH and others is also consistent with much higher levels of capital mobility when capital outflows and inflows are highly positively correlated. Taking account for these correlations reduces the estimated home bias somewhere between 45% and 90%.     

Cointegration tests under multiple regime shifts: An application to the stock price–dividend relationship

We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long-run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier study, which considered one-off deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspecified number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this issue by exploring the possibility of Markov switching cointegration in the stock price-dividend relationship and showing that this case is empirically relevant. Our subsequent Monte Carlo analysis reveals that standard cointegration tests are generally reliable, their performance often being robust for a number of plausible regime shift parameterizations.     

Use Tables for Imported Goods and Valuation Matrices for Trade Margins—an Integrated Approach for the Compilation of the Belgian 1995 Input–Output Tables

This paper describes the compilation of the use table for imported goods and the valuation matrix of trade margins for Belgium in 1995. It introduces the methodological novelty of integrating the compilation of both tables and systematically exploiting the fact that large import and export flows do not generate trade margins. This is notably the case for direct imports for intermediate consumption or investment by non-traders, and direct exports by producers. For identifying these trade flows, extensive use was made of intrastat and extrastat data. The results are compared with those of a proportional distribution of imports and trade margins. Many statistical offices resort to the latter approach because of a lack of survey data on the destination of trade margins and imports. We demonstrate that the integrated approach can improve the quality of both the import matrix and the valuation matrix for trade margins, while using only existing data sources.     

Why was china trapped in an agrarian society? An economic geographical approach to the needham puzzle

This paper argues that before the world started to globalize, the differences in the geographical endowments that different population faced were the most important constraints to their long-term production and consumption. The paper uses this central hypothesis to explain the sharp contrast between the flourishing Song and the stagnant Ming and Qing. During the Song dynasty, despite the fact that China lost a significant amount of arable land to invading nomads as its population peaked, China witnessed a higher urbanization level, more prosperous commerce and international trade, and an explosion of technical inventions and institutional innovations. However, after having significantly improved its man-to-land ratio in the period after the Song China only found itself induced deeper into the agrarian trap, resulting in reduced urbanization, withering foreign trade, a declining division of labor, and stagnant in technology.     

Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?*

In this paper, we apply a general equilibrium occupational choice model to the study of the impact of optimism on the earnings of entrepreneurs and workers. We extend the work of Lucas (1978 Bell Journal of Economics 9, 508–523) by assuming a fraction of individuals are optimistic about their ability as entrepreneurs. The model shows that optimism leads to a misallocation of talent and inputs, which raises input prices and lowers output. The model is calibrated to match salient features of the UK economy and the British Household Panel Survey. The calibration shows that optimism can account for more than half of the size of the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle in the UK.     

Gross national happiness as an answer to the Easterlin Paradox?

The Easterlin Paradox refers to the fact that happiness data are typically stationary in spite of considerable increases in income. This amounts to a rejection of the hypothesis that current income is the only argument in the utility function. We find that the happiness responses of around 350,000 people living in the OECD between 1975 and 1997 are positively correlated with the level of income, the welfare state and (weakly) with life expectancy; they are negatively correlated with the average number of hours worked, environmental degradation (measured by SOx emissions), crime, openness to trade, inflation and unemployment; all controlling for country and year dummies. These effects separate across groups in a pattern that appears broadly plausible (e.g., the rich suffer environmental degradation more than the poor). Based on actual changes from 1975 to 1997, small contributions to happiness can be attributed to the increase in income in our sample. Interestingly, the actual changes in several of the ‘omitted variables’ such as life expectancy, hours worked, inflation and unemployment also contribute to happiness over this time period since life expectancy has risen and the others have, on average, fallen. Consequently the unexplained trend in happiness is even bigger than would be predicted if income was the only argument in the utility function. In other words, introducing omitted variables worsens the income-without-happiness paradox.     

A quantitative explanation of the low productivity in South–Eastern European economies: the role of misallocations

It is well known that southeast Europe is the least developed area in Europe. Using a methodology based on the idea of heterogeneous firms, this paper studies the degree to which firm heterogeneity and resource misallocation can explain the lower TFP in southeast Europe. The results show a significant degree of heterogeneity and resource misallocation, although the results are sensitive to the calibration used. There is evidence that firm-level productivity depends on firm size, while taxation negatively influences it. There is also some evidence that foreign-owned firms are more competitive, as are exporting firms. Results are generally robust across the various specifications used, but less so relative to the measure of productivity used. Additional evidence suggests that infrastructure-related obstacles as well as institutional instability drive the output distortion, while no factor is underlined as a significant driver of capital distortions, suggesting the need for better data sources for the latter.     

Public–private partnerships for the provision of public goods: Theory and an application to NGOs

When will a public good or service be provided by the government, when will it be provided by a NGO, and when will we see a private–public partnership? This paper provides a model where a typical public good requires different inputs which raises the possibility of partnerships to exploit comparative advantages of different parties. But hold-up problems due to contractual incompleteness in specifying tasks discourage separation of ownership and management. The fact that public goods have the property of non-rivalry and non-excludability and that NGOs tend to be non-profits drives our key results. We apply the framework to NGOs in developing countries which, in the last few decades, have been increasingly involved in various capacities in the provision of a wide range of public goods and services.     

The effectiveness of qualification measures for employed workers – an evaluation study for Saxony

This article investigates whether and to what extent employment policy measures (co-) financed by the European Social Fund in Germany meet their objective. Specifically, it is analysed whether qualification programs for employed workers in the German state of Saxony were effective in terms of employment protection. To this end, a control function approach is implemented which utilizes a unique firm-level dataset. This model explicitly accounts for unobserved heterogeneity between participating and nonparticipating companies by modelling the participation decision process. Our results suggest a positive effect of program participation. However, this positive treatment effect varies considerably across different sub-groups of the treatment as well as the comparison group.     

Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005

This paper examines the emergence of manufacturing in developing countries in the period 1950–2005. It presents new data on structural change in a sample of 67 developing countries and 21 advanced economies. The paper examines the theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that industrialisation acts as an engine of growth in developing countries and attempts to quantify different aspects of this debate. The statistical evidence is not completely straightforward. Manufacturing has been important for growth in developing countries, but not all expectations of the ‘engine of growth hypothesis’ are borne out by the data. The more general historical evidence provides more support for the industrialisation thesis.     

Is an economics degree good preparation for the LSAT?

Those aspiring to law school must first complete the Law School Admissions Test, or LSAT. When ranking undergraduate majors by mean LSAT scores, economics has proven to be near the very top, if not the number-one major, over the last two decades. The goal of this analysis is the search for additional evidence that an economics degree is good preparation for the LSAT beyond mean score comparisons. After controlling for pre-college academic ability, collegiate academic ability, variables related to law school aspirations, institutional characteristics, several collegiate experiences, and demographics, the author finds that an economics degree has a positive and statistically significant association with higher LSAT performance.