Consumption opportunities and the real value of the external debt

Developing countries have, in the period since the oil shock of 1973–1974, built up large external indebtedness. At the same time world inflation has in good part eroded the real value of existing debts. But the measurement of the inflation effects on real debt depend critically on which among a number of deflators is selected. The deflators proposed in this context have traditionally been export prices, import prices or prices in world trade. This paper argues that the correct deflator is the domestic consumer price index. Using the consumer price index as a debt deflator it is readily shown that conventional results in trade theory are recovered in the presence of external indebtedness: The income effect of an export price increase is proportional to the level of exports, the income effect of an import price increase is proportional to the level of imports. Real income, using a comprehensive income measure, is equal to the value of domestic output less the real value of real interest payments on external debt.     

How does violence affect exporters? Evidence from political strikes in Bangladesh

Using novel daily data, we examine the impact of political violence on firm‐level export activity. Our data cover the universe of political strikes and export transactions in Bangladesh during 2010–2013 and allow us to examine the effects of these strikes at a highly granular level. We first show that multiday political strikes lower the likelihood that a firm will export by 6.30 percentage points. We then examine whether these disruptions result in adverse effects on export prices. Given that this violence creates greater risk of missed shipments, importers may respond by demanding lower prices as compensation. We provide the first evidence of such adverse price effects of political violence. Our results suggest that during July to December, 2013, when there was a multiday political strike every 5 days, the prices of time‐sensitive Bangladeshi products declined by 1.59%.     

国际农产品价格如何影响了中国农产品价格?

本文使用月度数据考察国际农产品价格是否影响中国农产品价格,以及影响程度和可能的影响机制。在控制了其他影响因素的条件下,本文证实了国际农产品价格对国内价格具有经济意义上的显著影响,各种农产品的国内价格对相同产品国际价格的反应程度存在较大差异,玉米、大米和大豆价格的国际价格弹性介于0.20到0.36之间,小麦的国际价格弹性为0.05左右,国内外农产品市场间高度的整合关系主要是通过国际贸易建立的。中国在未来为保持粮价稳定需要加大对农业的扶持力度,加强国内农产品储备,合理地对农产品贸易进行管制,建立农产品价格预警机制,并通过财政补贴等手段平抑因国际价格波动而带来的国内农产品价格上涨。     

TRADE BARRIERS IN THE PACIFIC FOREST SECTOR: WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES

This study uses a global model of the forest sector to examine changes in log production, consumption, prices, and trade and discusses the impacts of changes on economic wealth transfers for log export ban and log export tax scenarios. The results indicate that trade barriers are inefficient in allocating logs to domestic processors when a supply shortage exists. The trade barrier produces economic losses that exceed the benefits to the processors. A log export ban reduces log prices in the Pacc North-west by 8.5% and reduces timber harvests by 6.7%. The logs diverted to domestic mills save 1,208 more jobs than log export job losses but at an average annual cost of £230,463 per job saved. Economic transfers benefit lumber producers in the region under the ban. However, the benefits amount to 61% of regional timber producer losses including losses in the log export price premium, 39% of the loss to Asian processors, and 55% of the global consumer losses. Globally, lumber consumers lose £733 million. A log export tax scenario produces smaller impacts on prices and harvests since it does not eliminate total log exports. The tax scenario saves no jobs, and the average economic gain per job lost is £24,251 or about two-thirds of the current average salary in the forest products sector in the region. A log tax has the ability to retain £78 million in tax revenues.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

Exporting to bypass weak institutions

Institutions have been shown to be important for trade and growth. In particular, weak institutions may reduce the returns to product quality, harming domestic welfare and making it attractive to export to countries with strong institutions where quality is better rewarded. We model this alternative story as to why the “good apples are shipped out” and explore whether exporting ameliorates the problems created by weak institutions. We find that, instead, because home prices do not reflect the marginal value of quality, access to developed markets can be welfare reducing. Specifically, there are always export prices such that total welfare (and not just consumer welfare) is harmed by exporting. Furthermore, if the domestic price equilibrates to the export price, then the marginal unit exported reduces total welfare. Exporting can even reduce producer surplus, leading to a contraction of the export industry; although, welfare can decrease even if production of the exported good increases. Thus, our results reinforce the importance of strengthening institutions to help the development of economies.     

Trends in Disaggregated Import and Export Prices in Europe: Implications for the Trade and Wages Debate

We consider carefully the evidence from traded prices (as proxied by unit values) concerning the transmission of the effects of globalisation to domestic labour markets. Using standard index number techniques we decompose changes in sectoral import and export unit values into movements due to changes in pure prices of the initial bundle of goods imported or exported and changes due to upgrading of that bundle. Looking at the imports of selected European countries of textiles, clothing and footwear relative to engineering products we find evidence of strongly falling pure prices of the unskilled intensive products relative to the skilled products in the 1980s. This reinforces the view that import prices can capture the impact of globalisation in terms of falling relative prices for products produced with the intensive use of unskilled labour. However, the trends are not common across all the unskilled sectors; footwear is clearly an exception. In the absence of detailed domestic data, we look for reactions by domestic firms to increased import competition in movements in the price and composition of exports. We find evidence of stiff price competition from imports being associated with similar movements in export prices and no support for the view that import competition from low–wage countries has led to upgrading of the quality of exports.     

A 'pricing-to-market' model with unobserved variables: explaining New Zealand's import prices

A model of ‘pricing-to-market’ (PTM) behaviour in import prices is developed for a small open economy to allow for two measurement problems: (i) that neither the marginal production cost of imported goods nor their corresponding (foreign-currency) export price are observable by the econometrician; (ii) that PTM behaviour, if it exists, alters the relationship between foreign countries' export price indices for total exports and the true, unobservable price index. The analysis shows that variations in the measured markup on import prices depends on the degree to which domestic demand is synchronized with world demand, whether bilateral exchange rate movements are due to domestic or foreign factors, and on the degree to which PTM behaviour differs from such behaviour in other countries. Equations estimated for the price of New Zealand (NZ) imports from the US strongly supports the model, and finds that the degree of PTM by US exporters in response to price and exchange rate movements is substantially greater in NZ than the average for other countries. However, the degree of PTM in NZ in response to excess demand is similar to that of other countries.     

Market power in distribution and pass‐through for consumers and producers

We examine the differential pass‐through of import prices into consumer and producer prices. We develop a framework with distribution costs and distribution market power. We then examine pass‐through from import prices to consumer and producer prices in the euro area using the U.S. import price as instrument. We find that pass‐through rates to producer prices are more sensitive to changes in distribution margins than pass‐through to consumer prices. Furthermore, only a portion of import price changes translate into domestic price changes limiting potential consumer benefits from tariff liberalization, with market power in distribution services being one important factor reducing pass‐through.     

Exchange Rate Changes and Pricing Behavior of US Exporters

This paper studies export pricing behavior following exchange rate changes in US manufacturing industries. Through a monopolistic model, the paper predicts that export prices should change, but less than proportionally, in response to exchange rate changes if either or both demand elasticity and marginal cost are variable. Cross-industry variation of such price changes can be explained by the difference in demand elasticities between the domestic and the export markets, the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. and the export share. These predictions are supported by the empirical findings of the paper.     

Currency Options and Export-Flexible Firms

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of a globally competitive firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The firm is risk averse and possesses export flexibility in that it can distribute its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market after observing the realized spot exchange rate. To hedge against its exchange rate risk exposure, the firm can trade fairly priced currency call options of an arbitrary strike price. We show that both the separation and the full‐hedging results hold if the strike price of the currency call options is set equal to the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices. Otherwise, neither result holds. Specifically, we show that the optimal level of output is always less than that of an otherwise identical firm that is risk neutral. Furthermore, an under‐hedge (over‐hedge) is optimal whenever the strike price of the currency call options is below (above) the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices.     

New trade theory,non-price competitiveness and export performance

This paper develops a demand function for Greece's exports of manufactures according to New Trade Theory. Non-price competitiveness plays a vital role in explaining export performance and failure to include it in the export equation may lead to mis-specification error. Foreign income has a moderately high effect on exports in the long run and no effect in the short run. Exports are also sensitive to domestic and competitors' prices in the long run, but cost and price competitiveness elasticities are close to one, indicating that Greek exporters have some ability to compete on the basis of prices.     

VERs and Price Undertakings under the WTO*

Under the rules of the WTO, governments are prohibited from negotiating voluntary export restraints (VERs) but may negotiate price undertakings (i.e. import price minima). While these two policies can have identical effects in models of perfect competition, they can have very different economic consequences with imperfect competition. The model presented here shows that in a model of international Bertrand duopoly, a VER can result in lower domestic prices and profits than a price minimum regime. This suggests that price undertakings should also be prohibited under the WTO.     

Real Gross Domestic Product and the Terms of Trade

Since their inception in the early 1960s, constant price national accounts have contained a measurement inconsistency in the expenditure accounts which flows through to the production accounts. The inconsistency has the effect of excluding changes in the terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) from real gross domestic product, so that it is unequal to real gross domestic income, which includes them. In economies, such as those of Australia and Canada, that experience substantial changes in the terms of trade, a real gross domestic product excluding those effects becomes a misleading guide for macroeconomic analysis and policy.     

大宗农产品价格风险评估——基于小波神经网络-Bootstrap方法的实证研究

构建了一个将小波神经网络与Bootstrap抽样相结合的价格风险评估模型。采用国际通用的VaR(在险价值)风险指标评估了国内小麦、水稻、玉米、大豆和棉花5种主要大宗农产品现货价格的风险水平,仿真研究了以上大宗农产品价格下跌风险和价格上涨风险的分布特征。结果表明:按价格风险水平由高到低对5种主要大宗农产品进行排序依次为棉花、大豆、玉米、小麦和水稻;从风险均值来看,我国大宗农产品价格特别是粮食价格的风险处于较低水平;从风险的经验分布来看,除大豆外,其他大宗农产品(特别是小麦、水稻和玉米)的涨价风险高于跌价风险;5种农产品的价格均存在偏度风险和峰度风险。     

Art in Africa: Hedonic price analysis of the South African fine art auction market, 2009–2014

Real asset markets are characterized by illiquidity and heterogeneous assets, presenting challenges to price estimators. Use of a new dataset of 7,553 auction fine art lots brought to market in South Africa, for 2009–14, allows us to examine the full sales hedonic price estimator over a wide set of characteristics. Results validate full sale hedonic pricing: Identities of artists, medium and genre, dating characteristics, and physical characteristics of artwork are significant. External validity of hedonic pricing is supported by out-of-sample price prediction for 40 individual artists. Auction house catalogue presentation of art work also proves correlated with realized auction prices. Art as an asset finds support: art prices move countercyclically with GDP and domestic equity markets, pro-cyclically with off-shore equity markets, implying a risk diversification role. JEL Codes: D1, L8. Keywords: hedonic price equation, art market, South Africa Word Count: 9467 (including all Tables, Figures, References).     

Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?

To account for the specific situation of commodity exporters, pegging to export prices (PEP) has been proposed elsewhere as an alternative to other conventional monetary regimes such as an exchange rate peg or inflation targeting. PEP is supposed to deliver automatic accommodation to terms‐of‐trade shocks, while retaining the credibility gain from a nominal anchor. This paper analyzes the PEP proposal in a dynamic general‐equilibrium model and compares it with a standard Taylor rule, consumer price index (CPI)‐level targeting and a nominal exchange rate peg. Judged by the degree of output stabilization, PEP performs very similar to CPI targeting for export demand as well as domestic demand shocks and underperforms in the case of shocks to the export price. The results suggest that PEP is not superior to conventional CPI targeting from a macroeconomic stabilization perspective.     

Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database Revisited: A New Approach for Estimating ‘Missing’ Prices

The Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database (Ex-vessel DB) reported in Sumaila et al. (J Bioecon 9(1):39–51, 2007) was the first comprehensive database that presents average annual ex-vessel prices for all commercially exploited marine fish stocks by nationality of the fishing fleet. It contained over 30,000 reported price items, covering the period from 1950 to the present, and supplemented missing prices with estimates based on prices from a different year, species group or fleet nationality. This paper describes a revised missing price estimation approach, focused on the computation of annual average international prices for each species group, adjusted to domestic prices using the real exchange rate based on national purchasing power parity. Key advantages of the new approach are that it allows a larger number of reported prices to be used in the price estimation, and accounts for relative price level differences that exist between countries. Our new approach should improve the estimates in regions where reported prices are scarce or non-existent by linking domestic prices to the trends in international prices. Our analysis, based on the revised ex-vessel price estimates (in real 2005 USD), shows that the global marine fisheries landings have generated total value of USD 4.2 trillion since 1950, including USD 100 billion in 2005.     

AUSTRALIAN COMMODITY EXPORT PASS-THROUGH AND FEEDBACK CAUSALITY FROM COMMODITY PRICES TO THE EXCHANGE RATE

Commodity export pass-through is examined for Australia in an attempt to determine whether Australia is a price-taker in its commodity export trade. This is undertaken for seven categories of Australia's main commodity good exports. We also determine if there is feedback causality from particular world commodity prices back to the exchange rate as is often hypothesised for commodity good intensive exporting countries. It is found that Australian commodity good export pass-through is complete for the goods which are relatively less important in its export trade but is incomplete (although high) for the goods which are most important in its export trade. There is significant feedback causality to the exchange rate from the world price of coal and wheat, two of Australia's most important commodity good exports over the 1980s and early 1990s.     

International price transmission in CGE models: How to reconcile econometric evidence and endogenous model response?

The importance of empirically analyzing the transmission of international prices to and their impacts on domestic markets is growing particularly since the 2006–2008 food price hikes. However, the field is dominated by econometric Price Transmission Analysis (PTA) but surprisingly disconnected from analyses based on simulation models such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The missing reconciliation among these tools could be due to PTA often being concerned with high frequency data and short-term adjustment processes, which does not reconcile well with the annual data of CGE analyses; different research teams in econometric time series analysis and CGE modeling with typically little overlap; and the endogeneity of price transmission in CGE models. Due to this endogeneity, the calibration of CGE models to empirically observed price transmission is not straightforward, as an infinite combination of model parameters and specifications allows for reaching a certain level of price transmission. This paper aims at paving the way for the integrated use of PTA and CGE models by analyzing how a given degree of price transmission from the international to the domestic market, which may be determined empirically e.g. based on a vector error correction model, can be met in a single country CGE model. We examine and validate seven hypothetical determinants including structural characteristics of the model, the parameterization of behavioral functions and properties of the sectors concerned. The findings of this paper support controlling the pass-through of prices from the international to the domestic market in CGE models.