The effect of remittances prior to an election

The objective of the article is to assess whether remittances have an influence on political manipulation, which may occur prior to an election, through an increase in the government consumption-to-GDP ratio. We combine data from the National Elections across Democracy and Autocracy data set compiled and discussed in Hyde and Marinov (2012) and the World Development Indicators data set. We focus on 70 developing countries over the period 1990–2010. It appears that the political budget cycle is reduced up to the point where it is fully cancelled out at a remittance threshold of 10.7% of GDP. Those findings are robust to different robustness checks.     

The influence of remittances on education and health outcomes: a cross country study

We study the effect of international remittances on aggregate educational and health outcomes using a sample of 69 low- and middle-income countries. We find that remittances play an important role in improving primary and secondary school attainment, increasing life expectancy and reducing infant mortality. Our results suggest that as migration laws continue to support greater emigration and remittances, policies should be enacted to facilitate the flow of remittances as they represent a significant source for economic development.     

Macroeconomic determinants of remittances: evidence from Romania

Given the globalization of the labour market and the promotion of free movement for work, young people are looking for employment opportunities from at least two perspectives – professional careers and socio-economic benefits from employment. In developing countries, such as Romania, the labour market is less attractive, which has led to profound, numerical and structural imbalances, due to external mobility for work. Both new generations of graduates and young people aged up to 40 years, decide to work abroad as a more beneficial individual solution, i.e. remittances. The purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic determinants of remittances to Romania, in order to substantiate public policies on diaspora, to adjust employment policy on the national labour market by promoting incentives to create decent, youth-friendly jobs. Using panel data model we selected several variables with potential influence on remittances level. The results demonstrate that traditional influence’s factors as distance, migration routes diaspora concentration or unemployment rate are, at present, less important than wage gap or tax rate at least for developing origin countries.     

U.S. foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: a case of remittances and market size

This article investigates the effect of remittances on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It covers 26 countries for the period 1983–2010. The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on U.S. FDI flows. However, this effect depends upon the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the host country. On average, the results show that increasing remittances by one standard deviation increases U.S. FDI flows by 0.44 percent a year. Also, host country demand positively affects U.S. FDI flows, which supports the market size hypothesis.     

Money, endogenous fertility and economic growth

This paper analyzes the issue of money superneutrality through an intertemporal optimizing model of capital accumulation with endogenous fertility, i.e. endogenous population growth. Two elements of this setup invalidate money superneutrality: (i) a demand for fertility that depends on real money balances, and (ii) an inverse relation between capital–labor ratio and population growth. Higher monetary growth increases fertility, since it reduces its opportunity cost, and hence diminishes capital intensity, and per capita output. This reverse Tobin effect is matched by an increase in aggregate capital and output growth rates. In this framework, the optimal monetary growth rule is a “distorted Friedman rule”.     

农民工城镇非正规就业的经济学分析

非正规就业是农村剩余劳动力转移到城镇后的主要就业形式,然而,第一代和第二代农民工选择非正规就业的原因却是不同的。基于农民工和政府两个微观经济主体视角,通过成本收益分析得出结论,非正规就业是农民工和政府共同选择的现实结果。     

农民工工资拖欠的现状、根源与治理

农民工工资拖欠不仅对农民工本人带来了伤害,也对行业、社会、经济等方面带来了负面影响,究其原因,主要在于层层转包的用工制度。因此,要解决这个问题,首先应在取消这种用工制度的基础上,将农民工纳入企业统一的人事管理,实行按月发放的工资制度,进而逐渐规范诸如劳动合同制度等其它方面的管理。     

农民工纳入城镇基本社会保障体系探析

为解决农民工社会保险问题,一些地方专门建立了外来务工人员社会保险制度,但实施困难、认同度低。与其重建一套制度,不如在改革城镇保险制度的基层上,分层、分类直接把农民工吸纳进入城镇保障体系,不但可以解决农民工社会保障,而且有利于城市化进程,有利于社会保障制度的健康发展。     

In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV

The HIV epidemic is lowering fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. This decline in fertility appears to reflect a fall in the demand for children, and not any adverse physiological consequences of the disease, as it is matched by changes in the expressed preference for children and the use of contraception, and is not significantly correlated with biological markers of sub-fecundity. A fall in fertility lowers dependency ratios and, for a given savings rate, increases future capital per person. These two effects more than offset the loss of prime working age adults and reduced human capital of orphaned children brought by the epidemic, allowing 27 of the nations of sub-Saharan Africa to cumulatively spend US$ 650 billion, or $5100 per dying adult AIDS victim, on patient care without harming the welfare of future generations. In sum, the behavioral response to the HIV epidemic creates the material resources to fight it.

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Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. In memory of Ho Hon and Nechama, terribly missed by us all.     

差异化农民工住房政策的构建设想

构建了农民工住房需求的吸引力—吸纳力分析框架,对我国31个省(市、区)进行了实证模拟,将其分别按照对农民工吸引力和吸纳力的大小划为"四型九类"地区,并探索了不同地区的农民工住房问题解决路径。研究表明:我国农民工的地区分布十分不均衡,对农民工吸引力和吸纳力都较高的Ⅰ型地区是农民工住房矛盾较为突出的地区,可分别采取园区配建型、公共租赁型、市政改造型、商业配建型和市民化型方式解决农民工住房问题;Ⅱ型地区要充分挖掘住房市场潜力,结合公共租赁型方式共同促进农民工城市住房问题的解决;Ⅲ型地区和Ⅳ型地区则要进一步规范租屋管理,同时采用准市民化型住房政策逐步解决农民工住房困难。     

新生代农民工参与养老保险约束条件及路径设计

新生代农民工作为一个庞大的社会群体进入城市,推动着中国工业化、城市化进程加快,他们有着强烈的市民化需求却因养老保险的缺失而严重受阻,不但有损新生代农民工切身利益,也不利于和谐社会构建。基于新生代农民工养老保险构建过程中所面临的各种约束,应以新生代农民工可持续就业为核心、以政府为主导、以土地流转为途径、以自身保障意识为前提的发展模式,确保新生代农民工养老效益得到有效保障。     

农民工工资与大学生工资的比较分析

当前,农民工工资高涨而大学生工资却一再低迷,这一现象引发社会热议。"大学毕业生工资不如农民工工资"并不真实,它具有一定的现实客观原因。从这一事件出发,对当前的大学教育进行反思。     

农民工社会养老保险研究述评

农民工是中国城市化进程中的主力军,农民工社会养老保险问题一直是社会各界关注的热点,也是构建和谐社会必须研究和解决的重要课题。学术界对农民工社会养老保险进行了大量研究与探讨,提出了不少有益的见解,但是绝大多数农民工未参加社会养老保险,是一个不争的事实。在文案调查、比较研究的基础上,通过大量的文献梳理,评析总体研究现状来进一步研究相关的对策,以期为该领域的进一步研究提供参考。     

湖南农民工务工权益的缺失与法律保护

农民工平等就业权、劳动报酬权、社会保障权等权益缺失是当前构建和谐社会的主要矛盾,它在湖南着实成了一个考验执政者智慧的难题。二元户籍及社会保障制度、农民工自身素质低下及法律法规不完善等体制是造成农民工权益缺失的根本根源。因此,必须尽快推进户籍制度改革,推进城乡就业和社会保障一体化,完善法律法规,加强农民工培训、打造湖南劳务品牌及创新工会组织等针对性举措来维护农民工权益,构建和谐社会。     

农民工就业权益保障的缺失及构筑

从农民工的就业权益出发,阐述了我国农民工的就业现状及问题,同时从地方性政策歧视、农民工本身文化素质较低、企业隐性的不安全成本以及特定区域内其主流文化的排他性方面分析了制约农民工就业的主要原因,认为要从确立公平的制度保障、提供有效的培训保障和建立多元化的社会服务保障等方面来构筑农民工的就业权益保障体系。     

新生代农民工城市适应障碍评价分析

文章基于当前新生代农民工强烈要求融入城市的社会现状,对该群体在城市适应过程中的各种障碍因素进行了分析和梳理,归纳了宏观的政府制度、中观的社会观念和微观的个人素质三方面的城市适应障碍。借助以往诸多学者的文献,文中提出了新生代农民工城市适应障碍的指标体系,通过文献研究和专家咨询相结合的方法,将各层面的障碍因素进行排序,并基于层级分析法的量化数据分析,得出各障碍因素的权重比例。依据各因素的权重排序及权重比可知,新生代农民工的城市适应是以个体内因为主导、以宏观外部政策为推力、以中观城市社会为助推的整体系统,其自身能力的提升和观念的改变才是城市适应的根本核心,宏观政策则应该侧重于提供更好的服务和保障,为外来人口适应并融入城市保驾护航,与此同时,城市社会观点即会积极响应政府接纳外来人口的合理融入。基于上述研究,文章给出了各层面可以改进的建议和启示。     

从民工潮到民工荒: 基于劳动力市场管制视角的分析

自2004年春开始,曾引起社会各界关注多年的民工潮逐步被以农民工短缺为特征的民工荒所取代.从民工潮到民工荒的转变绝不仅仅是表面上的农民工由富余到短缺,其实是一种使多层次矛盾得以凸显的劳动力市场现象.从劳动力市场管制角度看,民工荒现象凸显了我国劳动力市场管制中存在的制度缺陷和管制失灵;而要破解民工荒,改善对劳动力市场特别是农民工市场的管制,无疑是一种必然选择.本文从劳动力市场管制视角对民工荒现象所蕴含的社会意义、产生原因及解决对策做一分析.     

南通农民工“市民化”问题研究

当前以农民工为主体的外来流动人口在南通市的总量已经突破了100万人,而且产业大军中70%是农民工,其中80%为新生代农民工,如何加快农民工“市民化”进程,提高南通城镇化水平,成为当务之急。南通第六次人口普查中外来人口数据充分反映了当前农民工的类型、构成、分布等状况,在此基础,有针对性地提出南通农民工“市民化”的建议,如营造有利于农民工市民化的社会氛围,重视实现农民工市民化中的精神诉求,扫清阻碍农民工市民化的制度障碍等,具有较强的现实意义。     

On the estimation of the effect of labour participation on fertility

In this paper we consider the estimation of the causal effect of female labour market status (participation and employment) on fertility. We focus on the sensitivity of the estimated effect to (i) the assumptions about the exogeneity of labour market status; and (ii) the time interval between the measurement of fertility and employment status. Using Spanish quarterly data, we estimate a switching probit model that accounts for the joint determination of both variables. In order to obtain a behavioural effect of the former on the latter, we look at the timing of conception instead of the timing of birth, and present alternative sets of estimates depending on the accuracy with which conception is measured (yearly or quarterly). Our results show a positive although non-significant effect of participation and employment on the probability of having the first child, once the sample of women who conceive in the same quarter (or one quarter later) in which labour market status is measured and the endogeneity between both variables is accounted for. We find that annual data tend to over-estimate the negative effect of employment or participation on the probability of having a child, but the main biases appear when looking at the effect of participation. We are grateful to Adrian Kalwij, Daniel Miles and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on this work. All remaining errors are our own.