Prospective measures of competitive balance: application to money lines in major league baseball

This study examines competitive balance in Major League Baseball (MLB) by looking at the money lines for the games during the regular season. The assertion is that the closer the money lines are to indicating that each team has an equal chance of winning each game, the more competitive balance there is in the league. This study extends the model developed by Bowman et al. (2012), which used point spreads to assess competitive balance in the National Football League (NFL) and the National Basketball Association (NBA). In this study, money lines for the 1999–2011 seasons were used to develop several measures of competitive balance. The results indicate that competitive balance increased rather substantially during this period. A by-product of this research is to identify the most highly rated team and pitcher. In 2002, New York Yankees were the highest rated team and from the year 2000 Pedro Martinez was the highest rated pitcher.     

On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League*

This article examines competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League over the last two decades (1999/2000–2017/2018). Competitive balance is considered both before and after a competition. Have the groups been designed in such a way as to ensure similar levels of competitive balance ex ante? Have the demonstrated strengths (ex post competitive balance) of the different groups been similar over each season? What is the relationship between the competitive balance in the designed groups and that achieved in the same groups after the competition? Are the performance achieved in terms of ex post competitive balance similar to ex ante competitive balance levels? We found that, despite expectations, the groups' ex ante competitive balance was not homogeneous. Although ex ante competitive balance serves as a good predictor, on average, of ex post competitive balance, we observed significant differences at the levels of group and seasons. Therefore, it is possible to improve the design mechanism of the groups that make up the group stage of the champions so that they are composed homogeneously in terms of ex ante competitive balance.     

Competitive balance in a quasi-double knockout tournament

In 2001, the All-Ireland Gaelic Football competition changed from being a singleknockout tournament to a quasi-double knockout competition. Similar natural experiments in economics and operational research theory suggest such a change should reduce the competitive balance in the competition. Using a Hirschmann–Herfindahl Index measure of concentration and a bootstrapping approach, we confirm that the new structure leads to a less competitive outcome and, importantly, this outcome is less uncertain. Our bootstrapped results show that in the long run, with larger samples, there is less competitive balance in the new competition structure than in the older structure competition structure. Finally, we also consider a stochastic dominance approach to evaluating the change in tournament structure, but the low power due to the presence of ties in our small sample leads to an inconclusive outcome.     

Continuity and change: Mapping the community of economists in Greece (1944 to 1967)

Abstract

This paper combines quantitative, biographical and qualitative data to trace out the structure and dynamics of Greece's post-war community of economists, and explore its implications for the country's economic discourse. Greek economics was a state-centred profession whose fate was intertwined with that of the post-war developmental state apparatus. Most economists were employed in universities, the civil service or banking, with substantial interpenetration between branches. This configuration of professional constituencies, in conjunction with the structural features of each institution, conditioned the form and content of economic discourse. Professional and ideological cohesion went hand in hand, whilst substantial degrees of vertical and horizontal control by senior members further fostered consensus and increased professional sclerosis. Nevertheless, evidence from a new database of economic journal publications suggests that a substantial realignment took place in the late 1950s and 1960s, as a younger generation of scholars – most of them educated in the post-war UK/US, and affiliated with the newly established Centre for Planning and Economic Research – entered the scene.     

Exploding net errors and omissions as a capital flight phenomenon: the case of Slovakia

This article empirically explores determinants of net errors and omissions (NEO) of Slovakia during the 1997–2014 period, with emphasis on the 2008–2014 sub-period when a distinct downturn in the NEO time series is observed. Given the statistically significant link between the evolution of foreign direct investments and NEO, we cannot rule out possible prevalence of tax optimization as a part of capital flight phenomenon in developed countries. Our findings also suggest that services sector plays a pivotal role in determining the adverse NEO development in the post-2008 period. However, given the absence of detailed bidirectional data for trade with services, role of misinvoicing practices in the Slovak balance of payments statistics might not be further investigated. Our results further strengthen the call for a deeper understanding of forces driving the NEO evolution in other developed and developing countries suffering from capital flight phenomenon.     

Estimated burden of cardiovascular disease and value-based price range for evolocumab in a high-risk,secondary-prevention population in the US payer context

Aim: To estimate real-world cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and value-based price range of evolocumab for a US-context, high-risk, secondary-prevention population.

Materials and methods: Burden of CVD was assessed using the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in order to capture complete CV burden including CV mortality. Patients on standard of care (SOC; high-intensity statins) in CPRD were selected based on eligibility criteria of FOURIER, a phase 3 CV outcomes trial of evolocumab, and categorized into four cohorts: high-risk prevalent atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) cohort (n?=?1448), acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (n?=?602), ischemic stroke (IS) (n?=?151), and heart failure (HF) (n?=?291) incident cohorts. The value-based price range for evolocumab was assessed using a previously published economic model. The model incorporated CPRD CV event rates and considered CV event reduction rate ratios per 1?mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) from a meta-analysis of statin trials by the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists Collaboration (CTTC), i.e. CTTC relationship.

Results: Multiple-event rates of composite CV events (ACS, IS, or coronary revascularization) per 100 patient-years were 12.3 for the high-risk prevalent ASCVD cohort, and 25.7, 13.3, and 23.3, respectively, for incident ACS, IS, and HF cohorts. Approximately one-half (42%) of the high-risk ASCVD patients with a new CV event during follow-up had a subsequent CV event. Combining these real-world event rates and the CTTC relationship in the economic model, the value-based price range (credible interval) under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/quality-adjusted life-year gained for evolocumab was $11,990 ($9,341–$14,833) to $16,856 ($12,903–$20,678) in ASCVD patients with baseline LDL-C levels ≥70?mg/dL and ≥100?mg/dL, respectively.

Conclusion: Real-world CVD burden is substantial. Using the observed CVD burden in CPRD and the CTTC relationship, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that, accounting for uncertainties, the expected value-based price for evolocumab is higher than its current annual cost, as long as the payer discount off list price is greater than 20%.     

不同类型农户对退耕政策响应差异研究——以准格尔旗为例

主要探讨退耕初期不同类型农户响应退耕还林政策的差异及产生这种差异的影响因素。研究方法:多元线性回归模型。研究结果:(1)根据农户劳动力和耕地数量,可以将农户分为年轻多地型、年轻少地型、年老多地型和年老少地型;(2)四类农户参与退耕还林积极性由大到小分别为:年老多地型农户>年轻少地型农户>年轻多地型农户>年老少地型农户;(3)耕地面积是影响各类农户退耕决策最显著因子,而农户年龄是农户退耕决策影响力最大因子。研究结论:影响各类农户退耕决策的因素存在差异,针对不同类型农户制定差异化辅助政策有助于政策的落实。