中国贸易收支和贸易条件的动态关系——对S曲线的适用性检验

本文借鉴BKK(1994)和Abdelhak S.Senhadji(1998)的分析思路,对中国贸易收支和贸易条件的动态关系进行经验分析,结果却表明,用于描述贸易收支和贸易条件动态关系的经验性规律的"S"曲线并不适用于中国。本文认为,导致"S"曲线在中国失效的根本原因在于:中国快速而全面地融入以全球生产网络为载体、以跨国公司为主导的产品内国际分工体系,成为全球生产网络中的"价值增值地"和"出口平台",贸易收支和贸易条件的"相互"作用效应已明显减弱。而在两种商品模型中,贸易条件就等于实际汇率,所以本文的研究结论从另一层面说明:汇率不是中国持续性贸易顺差的原因,试图通过人民币升值不是解决中国贸易顺差的合理之道。     

Effective demand and the terms of trade in a dual economy: a Kaldorian perspective

Along the line suggested by Nicholas Kaldor, the paper incorporatesinto the analysis of a dual economy effective demand as a problemof generation of agricultural surplus and its realisation intopurchasing power for industrial goods. Through this approach,it is shown how one obtains empirical predictions about unevensectoral growth rates, as well as an effect of the movementin the terms of trade on long-term industrial growth which iscontrary to that suggested by Lewis. The paper also specifiesthe process of dynamic adjustment of industrial growth in aself-reinforcing circular flow under conditions of sufficientlyhigh agricultural growth, extending the effective demand argumentin a dual economy.     

Whither the terms of trade? An elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Movements in the prices of primary products and manufacturedgoods are analysed using a model that introduces differencesin wage and price determination between primary production andmanufacturing. Wages and prices in primary production are treatedas competitively determined, while prices and wages in manufacturingare determined by mark-up pricing and union-employer bargaining,respectively. The objective is to capture the influence of structuraldifferences between manufacturing and primary production onthe terms of trade between industrialised and developing worldsas discussed in the seminal contributions to the developmentliterature by Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer. The model is estimatedusing price and wage data from the post-World War II period.Support is found for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; however,our estimates suggest that, during periods of particularly rapidmanufacturing growth, there have been intervals of net improvementin the terms of trade of primary producers.     

新视角下中国外贸数据的重估与评析

当前外贸统计的缺陷,使得其＂跨境交易＂的统计原则和原产地规则无法客观地衡量经济全球化背景下投资、转口贸易以及加工贸易的发展状况,用属权的统计思想,重新核算中国外贸的数据,以期能够客观地反映中国外贸发展的真实面貌。     

Forbonnais,the two balances and the Économistes

Abstract

The link established by François Véron de Forbonnais (1722–1800) between two balances, the balance of trade and the balance of power, takes its full meaning in the context of the science of trade or “commerce politique” the author developed in his works. In polemical stance against the Économistes – the Physiocrats – and starting from the irremediable fact of the division of nations rather than their union, he intended to promote two goals: peace in Europe and the prosperity of nations through foreign trade. His approach was disputed by the Économistes who proposed instead a confraternal vision of nations in a free trade environment. This paper analyses Forbonnais' arguments, the answers of the Économistes and Forbonnais' final reply, and stresses the different views of politics this polemic denotes.     

International Economies of Scale and the Gains from Trade

In this paper, we present a two-country trade model with external economies of scale that emerge on an international level but are partially localized in each country. First, we show that the larger country exports the good produced in an industry with external economies of scale in the trading equilibrium. Second, we investigate the welfare effects of trade for the following two cases: (I) the case where external economies are completely localized in autarky; (II) the case where external economies are internationally effective in autarky. In case (II), it is shown that trade can be welfare-decreasing for both countries.     

Market interconnection and wages

We show that wage behavior as well as the skilled–unskilled wage gap depend on elasticity of import demand. Although, our analysis is in the spirit of the Stolper–Samuelson theorem, factor intensity plays no role in our results.     

新阶段中国商品对俄出口研究

中国俄罗斯年开启了中俄交流的大幕。在这个时期,中国加大商品出口,平衡对俄贸易逆差已不容忽视。中国商品在俄罗斯市场具有明显的竞争优势,应借助俄罗斯中国年活动平台,促进相互了解和发展,优化产品出口结构,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场。     

国际产业转移与我国外贸商品结构关系的实证分析

20世纪90年代以来, 在经济全球化和知识经济的共同推动下,国际产业转移的趋势不断变化,为我国产业结构升级提供了良机.认识并把握这个机遇,理清国际产业转移与我国外贸商品结构间的关系,在努力提升我国产业结构的同时,优化我国外贸商品结构,推动我国经济的发展.     

浙江省劳动密集型产品比较优势的动态演化——经验分析

针对在浙江省出口商品结构中居于重要地位的劳动密集型产品,计算RSCA指数并构造马尔可夫转移矩阵。实证分析结果表明:整体上看,浙江省劳动密集型产品的比较优势并不强,且分布不均匀;处于强、弱比较优势以及比较劣势三种状态的不同细类产品的比较优势动态变化呈现出不同的持续性、流动性特征,亦具有不同的提升潜力。在此基础上,针对处于不同比较优势状态的劳动密集型产品,从微观、中观、宏观三个层面剖析了比较优势动态演化的深层机理。     

现代国际贸易理论对中国对外贸易发展的启示

萨缪尔森认为在全球化进程中,中国在美国原来具有比较优势的领域里的技术进步,会导致美国贸易条件的恶化和福利的下降。但从现实数据看,中国在劳动密集型产品的出口扩大恶化了中国的贸易条件。从长远看,中国基于廉价劳动力为基础的纵向对外贸易的比重将逐步下降,而基于规模经济为基础的横向贸易的地位将逐渐上升。     

Is there Evidence of Learning‐by‐Exporting in Turkish Manufacturing Industries?

Exporting has always been thought of as one tool to improve productivity and, consequently, to spur economic growth in low‐ to middle‐income economies. However, empirical evidence of this so‐called ‘learning‐by‐exporting’ effect has been limited. This article determines whether learning‐by‐exporting is evident in two Turkish manufacturing sectors—the textile and apparel (T&A) and the motor vehicle and parts (MV&P) industries. A semi‐parametric estimator that controls for problems associated with simultaneity and unobserved plant heterogeneity is used to test the learning‐by‐exporting hypothesis. After controlling for these issues, our results suggest statistically stronger learning‐by‐exporting effects in the T&A than in the MV&P industry. The highly concentrated and capital‐intensive nature of the MV&P industry is the main reason for the lower learning‐by‐exporting effect in this sector. From a policy perspective, this implies that targeting export‐enhancing policies to industries with significant learning‐by‐exporting effects may lead to more productivity gains and would better stimulate an export‐led growth.     

出口商品结构调整的实证分析

我国目前出口增速下滑是由于我国外贸已进入到一个调整阶段,进一步的经济增长不能靠单纯的数量扩张,只能靠结构的转变。只有进行外贸结构的调整,尤其是出口商品结构的调整,逐步由非熟练的劳动密集型产品为主向物质资本、人力资本密集型产品为主,乃至向技术与知识密集型产品为主转化,才能进一步加大外贸对我国经济增长的贡献,确保我国经济快速稳定增长。本文通过实证分析论证了出口商品结构与出口总额的相关关系,并在此基础上进行了我国出口商品结构调整的可行性分析。     

中韩贸易平衡研究

中韩贸易的快速增长又引起新的问题——贸易严重失衡。通过加强与韩磋商、调整对韩出口商品结构、扩大对韩出口，从而促使双边贸易在动态中平衡或基本平衡，来形成优势互补、共同发展的长期合作局面。