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1.
Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.  相似文献   

2.
Similar to other developing nations, Jamaica’s remittances, specifically inflows, are an important source of income support and foreign exchange earnings. Anecdotally, much has been said about the relationship between remittances and GDP in this country. Yet, less has been established using rigorous statistical inference. We test for unit roots with structural breaks and use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to help fill this lacuna in the literature on Jamaica. Using annual data for the 1976–2014 period, we examine the relationship between GDP and remittances, both measured in constant 2010 US dollar terms, as we control for the common determinants of economic growth. The main finding is that GDP and remittances are cointegrated relationship wherein they both reinforce each other positively. This finding is statistically robust as the ARDL models have well-behaved errors and parameters that are generally stable over the period. We discuss policy implications of this finding.  相似文献   

3.
Recent technological changes have been characterized as “routine-substituting” because they reduce demand for routine tasks and increase demand for analytical and service tasks. Little is known about how these changes have impacted immigration, or task specialization between immigrants and native-born individuals. In this paper, we show that such technological progress has attracted immigrants who increasingly specialize in manual-service occupations. We also suggest that openness to immigration attenuated the job and wage polarization faced by native-born from technological changes. We explain these facts with a model of technological progress and endogenous immigration. Simulations show that unskilled immigration attenuates the drop in routine employment proceeding from technological change, enhances skill upgrading for native-born and raises economy-wide productivity and welfare.  相似文献   

4.
International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.  相似文献   

5.
社会资本理论将因背负创新社会管理的使命而更具活力,创新社会管理的实践也将因社会资本的优化和支撑而更加有效。社会资本关注那些嵌入社会结构之中的社会关系以及信任、互惠规范和公民参与网络等社会资本形式,社会资本与社会管理良性互动,社会资本也具有负外部性。从培育公民的公共精神、建设廉价服务型政府、实现制度供给的法治化、引导民间组织健康发展等维度探寻创新社会管理的进路,以期实现“公平、正义、和谐”的良序社会治理。  相似文献   

6.
论环境污染中的产权和利益分配   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
厂商的经济活动产生污染,危害了社会福利。如果环境质量产权为污染源附近的居民所有,他们通过与厂商的谈判达成一定的协议,可以维护自己的社会福利,但实际操作中存在一定的困难。政府主导下的污染控制措施,改变了产权关系,使污染源附近的居民承担了经济发展所带来的社会成本,他们应得到补偿。  相似文献   

7.
Most of the existing literature dealing with the relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth either suffers from ignoring relevant variables such as trade openness or investment, or suffers from using econometric methods that are unable to distinguish between short- and long-term causality and are not robust to the degree of integration of time series used for the analysis. This article suggests using the autoregressive distributed lag approach along with additional explanatory variables such as measures of trade and investment to shed a new light on the link between emissions, energy consumption and income in the two largest and energy-intensive developing economies: China and India. Our results, over the 1971–2009 period, provide evidence that investment plays a major role in shaping the relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and income in China while this is not the case in India. Furthermore, trade openness is found to play a key function in the short term in China but does not contribute to the emissions-energy-growth scenario in India.  相似文献   

8.
Using annual time series data (1983–2007), this paper examines the nexus between international trade and technological progress in China. The time series properties of the data are analyzed by bounds testing approach and vector error-correction model. The empirical results show that, it is not international trade volume and export trade volume but the import trade volume that is cointegrated with total factor productivity. The paper also finds that, in the long run, there is a reciprocal Granger causal relationship between the change of import trade volume and the change of total factor productivity, and in the short run, there is no evidence to support the Granger causality between these changes of the two variables.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT

This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships between research and development (R&D) expenditure, climate change (measured by annual rainfall and temperature variations), human capital (proxied by literacy) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Bangladesh agriculture. Pesaran’s Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is used to a unique panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61-year period (1948–2008). In addition, the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is also applied to trace the responsiveness of TFP from a shock to R&D, extension services, and literacy rate. Results reveal that R&D has an insignificant impact on TFP in the short-run, while it has a significant positive impact in the long-run. The contributions of climate variables (i.e., rainfall and temperature variations) are highly significant and negative in the long run. The literacy rate is found to have a significant positive impact on TFP as expected. These results suggest that agricultural R&D investment and human capital could play an important role to ameliorate the adverse effects of climate change in the agricultural sector of Bangladesh.  相似文献   

10.
The present work considers the level of demonstrated happiness and unhappiness within groups, the latter measured by the conditional probability of suicide within groups facing an income tax rate and those without. Using US data for the year 2004, our results show that individuals have lower rates of suicide or are ‘happy’ when they do not pay income taxes than those who pay.  相似文献   

11.
This paper explores the rebalancing of prices for voice service in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) from conceptual and empirical perspectives. We determine the overall cost and structure of a standardized basket of residential and business services. Our data indicate that during the 1994–2000 period the degree of rate rebalancing was significantly higher in the EU than in the US. While the developments at the level of EU Member States are more heterogeneous and the process of rate rebalancing is not completed, these findings correspond to the predictions derived from our comparative institutional analysis.  相似文献   

12.
Financial market development is said to have equalizing or unequalizing effects on income distribution. Previous research used cross-sectional and panel data and provided mixed results. Suspecting that they suffer from aggregation bias, we adhere to time-series data and error-correction modeling technique and address the issue one more time in each of the 17 countries for which we have time-series data. In 10 counties, short-run effects of financial market development on income distribution were found to be equalizing. In five countries, the effects were unequalizing. However, the equalizing effects lasted into the long run only in three countries of Denmark, Kenya and Turkey.  相似文献   

13.
社会保障支出在一定程度上影响着经济和社会的发展。本文依据2000年~2010年新疆社会保障支出的数据,从社会保障财政支出和非社会保障财政支出规模、城乡间社会保障支出、新疆社会保障支出与经济状况、社会保障财政投入、社会保险覆盖面等多角度对新疆社会保障支出水平进行分析。在已有学者推算出的社会保障适度水平计算公式的基础上,计算测度新疆社会保障适度水平的公式参数,检验新疆社会保障适度水平。结果表明,新疆社会保障总支出规模逐年增加,人均社会保障总支出也逐年增加,且增速较快,但目前新疆社会保障支出总体看处于不适度水平,且社会保障支出与经济发展状况不相适应。  相似文献   

14.
During the last thirty years, one of the most remarkable trends in Western Europe and North America has been the increase in women’s labor force participation rates. However, there has been considerable variation among countries; rates in Southern European countries are markedly lower than in other regions. Standard welfare state regime typology is unable to explain this outcome. This paper tackles the issue by examining the institutional determinants of employment decisions in Spain. Family policies and tax policies greatly influence the labor force participation of women by either promoting or discouraging the employment of mothers. However, these policies do not affect women in the same way. Of particular importance is whether women can claim benefits on the basis of their citizenship, or whether their status as wives or mothers is the link to benefits. By pursuing this line of analysis, the paper explains the low female labor force participation in Spain, providing an important contribution to the welfare state regime literature.  相似文献   

15.
Unlike recent studies that are based on international cross-sectional series, this paper attempts to quantify the role of the determinants of aggregate health care expenditure per capita, using time-series data for the period of 1960–87 for the United States. The paper applies the relatively new procedures of unit root testing, cointegration and error-correction modelling. The evidence supports cointegration. Although, the results indicate that per capita income, age of the population, number of practising physicians, and public financing of health care are important determinants, the age structure of the population and number of practising physicians emerge as the major determinants of aggregate health care expenditure in the United States.  相似文献   

16.
17.
We try to assess the impact of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in eight Asian countries. When we followed the previous literature and the standard linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, we found exchange rate changes had no long-run significant effects in five out of the eight countries in our sample. However, when we applied the nonlinear ARDL approach and separated appreciations from depreciations, at least one of them or both had significant effects on the demand for money in India, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, supporting asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes. There was also evidence of short-run asymmetric effects.  相似文献   

18.
The paper investigates the factors determining long‐term interest rates. Our estimation results for major industrialized economies suggest that central banks have actually had a key influence on the level of long‐term interest rates. We thus show that 1) the customary neoclassical model of interest rate determination, on which central banks tend to rely, is neither rooted in the institutional setup of the credit markets nor supported by the data, and that 2) the Austrian explanation incorporated in the model of Wicksell–Mises–Hayek of the credit and business cycle fits better the economic reality. As central bank policy makers might lack the necessary knowledge and foresight to set market rates to levels consistent with economic fundamentals, there is a high chance of misalignments of market rates. The correction of misalignments could lead to severe economic disruptions.  相似文献   

19.
Empirical relevance of inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is highly controversial in the macroeconomics literature. With this in mind, this article evaluates the purely forward-looking NKPC useful for policy analysis with respect to their abilities to account for the dynamic relationship between output and inflation. Our findings show that the NKPC heavily relying on firms’ forward-looking behaviour is hardly supported by the Euro Area and the US data. The failure of the NKPC in matching the data is consistently observed across the sub-samples divided before and after the early 1980s. For comparison, we also investigate the performance of the hybrid NKPC and the traditional backward-looking Phillips curve associated with ad hoc price indexation assumptions.  相似文献   

20.
This study investigates short- and long-run bidirectional causality between institutional quality and sectoral-level FDI in Pakistan by using the ARDL technique. The results confirm that long-run bidirectional causality exists between institutional quality and aggregate FDI. The in-depth sectoral-level FDI analysis substantiates the presence of long-run bidirectional causality between institutional quality and FDI in services and manufacturing sectors, while no long-run causality is observed between institutional quality and FDI inflows in primary sector. Furthermore, the results in the study reveal short-run bidirectional causality only between institutional quality and manufacturing FDI and report insignificant short-run causal link between institutional quality and FDI in primary and services sectors. The overall findings of the study suggest that in the long-run institutional quality attract FDI and FDI inflows, particularly to manufacturing and services sectors, significantly enhance the quality of institutions in Pakistan.  相似文献   

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