中国消费者信心与消费需求拉动效应的实证分析

美英等国的消费者信心指数(CCI)可预测消费者的行为,也可为宏观经济提供信号传导功能。应用格兰杰因果检验与回归分析,笔者对我国 CCI 与京、津、沪、穗四大城市的社会消费品零售总额之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明：我国 CCI 与北京、天津的消费需求存在显著的预测和单向信号引导关系,与上海、广州的消费需求不存在显著因果关系。     

消费者信心指数与股票市场收益的实证研究

基于行为金融学的视角，研究消费者信心和股票市场收益的互动关系，结果发现消费者信心指数与殷市收益具有较强的相关性。利用脉）辛响应和方差分解分析消费者信心与股市收益之间的互动关系，结果表明，消费者信心指数能预测一部分收益，股市收益与消费者信心指数间的冲击具有不对称性。     

Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?

Recent econometric analysis shows consumer confidence innovations have long lasting effects on economic activities like consumption. Using US data, we show this conclusion is more nuanced when considering an economy that has different potential states. We investigate regime-switching models which use the National Bureau of Economic Research US business cycle expansion and contraction data to create an indicator series that distinguishes bad and good economic times and use this series to investigate impulse responses and variance decompositions. We show the connection between consumer confidence to some types of consumer purchases is important during good economic times, but is relatively unimportant during bad economic times. We also use this type of model to investigate the connection between news and consumer confidence and this connection is also shown to be state dependent. In the context of the animal spirits versus news debate, our findings show that during economic expansions, consumer confidence shocks likely reflect news, while during economic contractions, consumer confidence shocks are consistent with animal spirits. These findings also have important implications for recent policy debates which consider whether confidence boosting policies, like raising inflation expectations on big-ticket items such as automobiles or business equipment, would lead to a faster recovery.     

A Study of Social Network Effects on the Stock Market

Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy as well as their personal financial situation. The authors measure consumer sentiment via analysis of social networks and show that such sentiment affects stock prices; specifically, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shiller, Fischer and Freidman [1984], Fisher and Statman [2003], and Bremmer [2008] also examine the influence of consumer sentiment, measured from Conference Board data, on the stock market. The authors add to this literature by creating a measure of consumer confidence by utilizing Twitter data and by examining the relationship between our measure of consumer sentiment and the S&P 500 and the Dow. They implemented lexicographic analysis of Twitter data over a three-month period and found that talk intensity of economic issues not only causes shifts in the daily stock market prices, but also has a significant negative effect.     

Macroeconomic performance index: a new approach to calculation of economic wellbeing

Since the rise of the global financial crisis, there has been revival of interest in performance indexes that measure the overall stance of the economy and the wellbeing of households. Such indexes typically consist of inflation, growth, employment and long-term interest rates. We develop such an index by appending exchange rate and weighting each variable by the inverse of its variance in order to prevent the more volatile variable to dominate the index. We call this macroeconomic performance index (MPI) and argue that such an index better explains the overall economic stance especially in emerging economies. We generate the index using data from three emerging economies, namely Turkey, Brazil and Poland. Our analysis indicates that the index has a nonlinear structure and hence we analyse its behaviour using threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. It is observed that MPI captures the economic stance and main economic incidents quite successfully in each subject country. To further see the relevance of the MPI, we run TAR cointegration analysis with consumer confidence indexes (CCIs) for the subject countries with TAR cointegration test. The results indicate long-term relationship between the MPI and CCI in all three countries.     

中国文化消费水平的地域分异及影响因素

伴随着消费时代的来临,文化消费在社会结构与社会重构中的作用愈发明显。文章结合经济地理学、文化社会学、消费经济学等多维研究视角,遵循指标选择的科学性、综合性、针对性和数据可获取性原则,以及中国文化消费的具体情况,从文化消费环境、文化消费意愿、文化消费满意度三个层面构建文化消费指数测度指标体系。综合运用GIS空间分析法和数理统计法,探讨中国文化消费水平的地域分异规律及其影响因素。结果显示:①中国省域文化消费水平在空间上整体表现为东西差异,且存在一条类似人口、经济分布规律的"胡焕庸线","胡线"两侧文化消费水平差异较大。②中国省域文化消费水平梯度差异明显,以板块内差距为主,板块间差距为辅。③文化产品供给、经济发展水平、政府调控能力以及教育发展程度共同驱动中国省域文化消费水平的地域分异。④建议通过完善文化消费市场、提升文化产业发展质量、挖掘文化产品内涵、推广文化教育并培养专业人才、制定差异化文化政策等策略,合理引导文化消费,实现区域文化协调发展。     

The Time Varying Relation Between Consumer Confidence and Equities

We examine the impact of changes in consumer confidence measures on future stock index returns. Our analysis is built on the growing understanding that investor sentiment is an important factor in the stock market. By using frequency dependent regression methods, we show that there is a time-varying relation between consumer confidence and stock returns. Higher levels of consumer confidence imply greater returns in the short term but negative returns in the medium term. However, this effect is only observed for the small firm index. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that consumer confidence is significantly affected by stock returns in reverse causality.     

An assessment of the contribution of consumer confidence towards household spending decisions using UK data

The European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is assembled from responses to four questions about individual and general economic prospects which form part of the EU’s Consumer Survey. However, concerns may be raised about whether the four components should be constrained to exerting the same influence in a forecasting model of household consumption. Also, in this context, it would seem to be appropriate to permit a role to other information that is obtained from the EU survey. Consequently, in this article, different regression functions are specified in order to assess whether there is any gain to be achieved in predictive accuracy from adopting a more flexible approach towards using the data from the EU questionnaire. With an emphasis upon parsimony, an econometric analysis is performed in conjunction with UK quarterly data on household consumption expenditure. For two categories of spending, it is discovered that the quality of forecasts benefits from having undertaken disaggregation involving survey data beyond those which contribute towards the calculation of the CCI. Indeed, the respective consumption variables (relating to non-durable goods and durable goods excluding vehicles) are seen to be associated with relatively volatile behaviour over the forecast interval, 2008–2013.     

Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?

This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, with the effect being more pronounced when the Debt to GDP ratio is high, possibly because they entail a permanent increase in the size of the public sector, which would have to be financed by higher future taxes.     

France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from the U.S., play an important role in explaining French economic activity. While international trade, relative prices, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are the main channels of transmission, the stock market, consumer confidence, and interest rates also matter. Second, France’s integration with the rest of the world has increased over time. Third, there is some tentative evidence of regional components in explaining French output fluctuations; country-specific components also contribute. The predominance of exogenous factors affecting French output, the asymmetry in the transmission of shocks, and France’s participation in a currency area argue for making French goods, services, and labor markets as flexible as possible.     

Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia

We estimate several competing regressions and find that confidence predicts consumption expenditure in Indonesia. Our estimations employ data on two measures of confidence, namely consumer and business confidence indexes, consumption and three standard predictors of consumption, namely labour income, stock price, and interest rate. We show that there are economic and statistical gains from consumption growth frameworks that account for consumer and business sentiments. Specifically, we show that policymakers can improve their forecast accuracy by between 4% and 13% by incorporating consumer and business sentiments into their forecasting frameworks.     

Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis

Based on the wavelet analysis approach, this paper firstly examines the dynamic relationship between global economic activity (proxied by the Kilian economic index) and crude oil prices in both time- and frequency-domains. Our empirical results demonstrate significant correlation between crude oil prices and global economic activity at high frequencies (in the short run) during the entire sample period; however, the co-movement between the two at low frequencies (in the long run) is weaker and exists only during certain proportions of the sample period. We also document evidence that global economic activity and oil price are positively correlated, with dynamic lead-lag relationships across time. Our findings are robust to alternative choices of oil price indexes and controlling for other confounding factors such as geopolitical risk, armed conflicts, economic policy uncertainty and equity market uncertainty. The current study provides valuable implications for oil market investors based on the information of global economic situation and its dynamic relationships with oil prices.     

Revisions to US labor market data and the public’s perception of the economy

Using the monthly “Employment Situation” reports for 1994–2013, this paper studies the revisions to US employment data. The paper shows that the first press release underestimates net job creation in expansions and overestimates it in downturns. The “errors” in reporting the data on the labor market can distort the public’s perception about the stance of the labor market and have some political consequences. This is well reflected by the finding that the job approval rating of President Obama, the index of consumer confidence, and the economic conditions index of Gallup have all been responding to the initial news on the US labor market as they were published in the Employment Situation reports.     

Uncertainty and Consumption in Keynes's Theory of Effective Demand

Keynesian uncertainty normally exercises influence over effective demand via private investment. This paper expands the scope of influence of uncertainty to comprise private consumption as well. When private spending is explicitly made subject to uncertainty the individual consumer is forced to take active steps to make the future predictable. Contracted, sticky money prices are key tools in the consumer's efforts to keep uncertainty at a minimum and match earnings with consumption costs. However, even if prices are successfully contracted there is still need for preparedness against contingencies. Consumers therefore regulate their propensity to consume with reference to their confidence in the future: the propensity to consume is high when confidence is strong and low when confidence is weak. Because of its effect on the propensity to consume, consumer confidence exercises a significant influence on macroeconomic activity in general.     

VALUING THE SERVICES OF CONSUMER DURABLES

Although consumer durables are treated as nondurables in most economic accounts, economists have long recognized that they could be treated as capital. If an estimate of the value of the services of consumer durables was available, it could be included in personal consumption expenditures and purchases of the durables treated as a form of investment. Such treatment would give a better picture of changes in a nation's economic welfare over time and make international comparisons more meaningful.
This article reviews the economic literature on how the services of consumer durables can be valued. It examines six alternative measures: the (1) user cost; (2) capital recovery; (3) opportunity cost; (4) market rental value; (5) cost of a substitute; and (6) cash-equivalent value measures. The first three are based on the summation of the costs of the inputs used to produce the services, although only the first two are consistent with the principle that the purchase price of a durable equals the discounted present value of its expected future benefits. The fourth and fifth measures are based on the prices of marketed services while the sixth is derived from the consumer's demand function for the good's services. The article also discusses six major issues in implementing these measures: (1) imputing a rate of return to capital; (2) measuring declines in market value (depreciation and capital gains); (3) accounting for operating expenditures; (4) adjusting for capacity utilization; (5) deflating service values; and (6) defining consumer durables.     

Confidence and the real economy - the Japanese case

This paper empirically analyses whether consumer confidence has an effect on the real economy in Japan. This paper uses vector autoregressions including variables which represent consumer confidence. It is shown that in the cases of quarterly and monthly data, consumer confidence has a significant effect on GDP fluctuations, whereas in the case of semiannual data, it has no effect. In other words, consumer confidence has an effect on only short-term economic fluctuations.     

Quality upgrading in Ethiopian dairy value chains: dovetailing upstream and downstream perspectives

Abstract

In this article, we analyze opportunities and constraints for upgrading product quality in the dairy value chain in Ethiopia. Our analysis is based on an integrated understanding of supply chain performance both from producer and from consumer perspectives. We outline as main drivers for quality upgrading: (a) factors that influence producers’ willingness to invest toward intensification by smallholder dairy farmers and cooperatives and (b) factors that induce consumer’s willingness to pay for healthy and nutritious dairy products delivered at specific retail outlets. Since there are large gaps between upstream producers incentives and downstream consumers motives, possibilities for dairy quality upgrading remain fairly limited. Given this market structure, decisive policy support is required for better tailoring producer’s investments with consumer preferences.     

中国服装类奢侈品消费现状分析

分析了中国服装消费市场进口的现状,并从消费人群、社会因素和心理因素等不同角度探讨了中国服装奢侈品消费市场现状原因。指出中产阶层是服装类奢侈品的消费主要人群,消费心态还是攀比为主,消费信贷在中国现阶段发展迅速。中国的服装类奢侈品市场具有广阔的发展前景,毛皮以及皮革类服装消费仍是服装奢侈品市场的主要消费。     

经济政策选择的交易成本分析方法

经济发展在一定意义上是一系列经济政策选择的过程.在数学上,经济政策的选择与微观经济学消费者选择可以具有同样形式.然而,从内容上看,经济政策的选择无法直接应用消费者行为理论进行分析,因为前者没有市场价格.为了解决这个问题,需要引进交易成本的概念,经济政策的交易成本相当于市场价格.这样,一种经济政策选择的理性模式就可以建立起来.     

Credit growth,monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model

We employ a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) methodology in order to examine the nonlinear nature of the interactions among credit market conditions, monetary policy and economic activity. We depart from the existing literature on the subject along two dimensions. First, we focus on a model in which the relevant threshold variable describes the state of economic activity rather than credit market conditions. Second, in contrast to the existing TVAR literature, which concentrates exclusively on single-threshold models, we allow for the presence of a second threshold, which is overwhelmingly supported by all relevant statistical tests. Our results indicate that the dynamics of the interactions among credit market conditions, monetary policy and economic activity change considerably as the economy moves from one phase of the business cycle to another and that single-threshold TVAR models are too restrictive to fully capture the nonlinear nature of those interactions. The impact of most shocks tends to be largest during periods of subpar economic activity and smallest during times of moderate economic growth. By contrast, credit risk shocks have the largest impact when output growth is considerably above its long-term trend.