Trade, Institutions, and Credit

Within economics there has been a mounting interest in institutions. Virtually all the work to date on institutions has examined a single institution. The problem is that in many settings the performance of the institution under examination is affected by other, unexamined institutions. This paper examines the relationship between two types of private-order institutions that facilitated trade in a specific setting—Mexican California during the 1830s and 1840s. The surviving evidence suggests that a multilateral institution enabled merchants to extend credit to their retail customers, and a similar multilateral institution enabled the merchants to extend credit to one another. The relationship between these institutions makes them of particular interest. This relationship arose because local communities imposed costs on merchants that affected their trade with one another. The barriers to entry and exit posed by these costs, in turn, facilitated the operation and persistence of the institution that supported intermerchant trade. They also precluded other organizational forms such as the vertical integration of wholesalers.     

What Determines Financial Development? Culture,Institutions or Trade

This paper endeavours to determine in how far theories emphasising cultural values, dysfunctional institutions or impediments to trade can explain the vast differences in the size of financial systems across the globe. To account for endogeneity, an instrumental variables approach is pursued. For a cross-section of countries, we find that trade openness and institutions constraining the political elite from expropriating financiers tend to promote financial development. Conversely, there is only limited evidence that cultural beliefs and the cost of enforcing financial contracts significantly hamper financial development. JEL no.  F36, G2, O16     

制度水平、出口潜力与稀土贸易摩擦——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

本文将制度水平变量加入贸易引力模型,并据此测算稀土出口潜力指数,试图解释稀土贸易摩擦的深层原因。研究发现,从进口国制度水平看,清廉程度和货币自由度是影响中国稀土出口的主要因素;"过度贸易型"国家如荷兰、日本、美国等与近年来中国稀有资源出口限制贸易案的发生显著相关;稀土产品的反向贸易政策是影响中国稀土贸易进而引起稀土贸易摩擦的直接原因,而中国与"过度贸易型"进口国的战略利益冲突是深层原因。     

制度水平、制度差距与发展中国家的对外贸易发展——来自全球31个发展中国家的国际经验

本文在贸易引力模型的基础上,将制度因素纳入到双边贸易模型的分析框架中,并利用2000-2005年期间世界224个国家之间6492(1082×6)个双边贸易观测值组成的面板数据,从国际层面考察了制度因素对31个发展中国家对外贸易的影响.研究结果表明:发展中国家与贸易伙伴国之间的制度差距会增加贸易成本,不利于双边贸易往来;发展中国家提高金融市场的自由化程度和政府的清廉程度,有利于对外贸易的发展;发展中国家对外贸易发展与政府规模、商业自由程度表现为倒U型曲线特征;在经济发展到一定水平以后,发展中国家提高投资自由化度不利于对外贸易的发展,提高产权的保护程度有利于对外贸易的发展.因此,在不同的发展阶段,发展中国家应该根据不同制度因素的影响作用,对各种制度进行改革和调整,促进本国对外贸易的发展.     

制度、基础设施与经济增长

本文建立包含制度因素的生产函数,通过动态规划和比较静态分析,讨论了制度、人均基础设施与经济增长的关系.通过研究发现,制度质量不同,资本的边际产品随人均资本积累变化的趋势不同.而且制度会通过影响人均资本产出弹性而影响基础设施对经济增长的贡献.从而导致经济增长率的不同.而且本文证明了最优税率随制度质量提高而变高.最后,经济增长的稳定状态也取决于制度质量,制度质量越高,均衡状态时的人均消费越大,所需人均资本投入越小.     

Openness,Lobbying, and Provision of Infrastructure

Casual empirical evidence suggests that infrastructure provision is higher in economies that are open to world trade. We develop a model of imperfect competition to show that open economies are likely to provide more infrastructure than closed economies. If infrastructure is financed by taxing a producer lobby, the open economy will overprovide while the closed economy will underinvest; an open economy approaches optimal provision when this lobby group is small in size. If financing of infrastructure is done by taxing the whole population, the closed-economy outcome may be preferred relative to that of the open economy.     

Institutions,Capital, and Growth

The international development community has encouraged investment in physical and human capital as a precursor to economic progress. Recent evidence shows, however, that increases in capital do not always lead to increases in output. We develop a growth model where the allocation and productivity of capital depends on a country's institutions. We find that increases in physical and human capital lead to output growth only in countries with good institutions. In countries with bad institutions, increases in capital lead to negative growth rates because additions to the capital stock tend to be employed in rent‐seeking and other socially unproductive activities.     

对外贸易、区域间贸易与地区专业化

本文回顾了中国地区对外贸易发展及其对区域间贸易和地区专业化影响的相关文献。现有研究的主要结论总结如下。首先,在国际分工和FDI等因素的驱动下,中国地区对外贸易增长呈现非平衡高速增长特征。其次,对外贸易促进了区域间贸易发展,影响着区域间贸易的流量和流向。再次,通过产业空间转移和结构转换,对外贸易推动了地区专业化和产业集聚,是沿海与内地之间差异的重要来源。最后,地区对外贸易开放对区域市场一体化的影响呈现“先抑后扬”的U型特征,区域市场一体化反过来也影响着地区对外贸易行为。     

交通基础设施的贸易成本效应:基于二元经济框架的理论分析与中国经验

文章基于Co爧ar和Fajgelbaum(2016)构建的二元经济框架,从国内贸易成本的视角,探讨了交通基础设施对企业国内贸易和出口贸易的影响机制。通过将中国交通基础设施数据与工业企业数据库合并,对交通基础设施与企业出口及国内贸易的关系进行了经验检验。结果发现,交通基础设施对企业出口和国内贸易的影响作用大相径庭。一方面,交通基础设施建设整体上不仅不会促进企业出口,而且会抑制企业出口,原因在于东部沿海与中部内陆的企业出口受到的影响完全相反,而二元经济结构的存在又将出口企业圈定在东部沿海,所以企业出口水平整体上受到抑制;另一方面,企业国内贸易得到发展归因于东部沿海与中部内陆企业的国内贸易都受到交通基础设施建设的促进作用。文章阐述了我国大规模基建的贸易成本效应,为"一带一路"国际合作和"供给侧结构性改革"的推进提供了一定的理论与经验支持。     

Institutions,Freedom, and Technical Efficiency

The impact of institutions on economic performance is currently the subject of much research. In this study we use panel data to estimate a stochastic production frontier and the sources of inefficiency for a broad set of countries. A maximum-likelihood procedure is used to estimate the parameters for the stochastic production frontier and the determinants of inefficiency simultaneously. Our results show that institutions that promote greater economic freedom in turn promote efficiency.     

贸易依存度、贸易差额与中国的金融稳定性

20世纪90年代,特别是2001年加入世界贸易组织以来,中国对外贸易取得了很大的进步.从理论上说,对外贸易流量同时形成了与之相对应的金融流量,因而在贸易与金融之间形成了相互影响和作用的渠道.中国持续走高的对外贸易依存度、贸易顺差与中国金融体系的稳定性之间存在着什么样的影响途径及相互关系,是一个值得我们关注的重要课题.     

Housing Bubbles,Economic Growth,and Institutions

Open Economies Review - Rising housing prices are accompanied by higher household consumption and firm investment that boost economic growth. However, excessive house price appreciations may...