A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

The impact of agricultural commercialisation on household welfare in rural Vietnam

Commercialisation by smallholder farmers has played a major role in agricultural development in many Asian countries, and while there are assumptions that this has led to welfare improvement, in fact there is relatively little evidence on this question. In this paper we use high quality panel data to examine the welfare impact of agricultural commercialisation in a leading Asian producer, Vietnam. We use the five-wave Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) panel data set from 2008 to 16, three measures of household welfare and create commercialisation indexes in relation to all crops and to rice specifically. We find a significant positive relationship of commercialisation with household asset accumulation, but a negative association with consumption expenditure.     

Are Important Innovations Rewarded? Evidence from Pharmaceutical Markets

This paper focuses on the relationship between therapeutic value and different measures of market rewards: the number of patents, price, market share, and revenues. Using an assessment of therapeutic value that is provided by the French Haute Authorité de Santé (HAS), I find a weak relationship between most measures of rewards and this assessment of therapeutic value, which suggests that the returns to developing a “me-too” product are not very different from developing treatments with greater therapeutic effects. One interpretation is that the HAS score is a poor assessment of therapeutic value, in which case the use of similar health technology assessments by governments and other payers should be re-examined. Alternatively, if the HAS score is informative, the results suggest that countries are overspending on less innovative products, and that a re-balancing of innovation incentives may be worth considering if therapeutic value is highly related to social welfare.     

Rising food prices and undernourishment: A cross-country inquiry

Households’ welfare in developing countries has been hit by dramatic food prices increases which occurred between 2005 and 2008. In this paper, we adopt a partial equilibrium approach to analyze the short-time effects of a staple food price increase on nutritional attainments, as a measure of welfare. The analysis consists of first approximating complete food-demand systems and then performing household level micro-simulations. Instead of focusing on a single country profile, we provide a more complete snapshot by comparing the evidence through a cross-country assessment made possible by the use of nationally representative household surveys. Comparability is assured by the adoption of the same methodological choices in the treatment of the micro data. We find that food price spikes not only reduce the mean consumption of dietary energy, but also worsen the distribution of food calories, further deteriorating the nutritional status of populations. We also discovered that access to agricultural land plays a significant role in ensuring adequate nutritional attainments in rural areas, and surprisingly, even in urban areas.     

How do consumers in developed countries value the environment and workers’ social rights in developing countries?

This paper uses a lab experiment to investigate developed countries’ consumer valuations of characteristics linked to the environment and workers’ social rights in developing countries. It focuses on seafood products and distinguishes between regular, environmentally friendly and fair trade varieties. Consumer valuations are elicited with a multiple price list. Results show that environmental and social labels have similar effects on participant willingness-to-pay when they are first presented. Using welfare variation coming from the labels, we also show that the absence of negative information linked to the regular variety may lead to an underestimation of the value of information associated with the label.     

Market segmentation on dating platforms

Individuals from two populations seek matchmaking services from competing dating websites. Each population is heterogeneous along an objective quality rank and matched couples experience disutility if there are incompatibilities in their quality ranks. Individuals in the populations care also about other traits that they wish their partner to possess. They are more likely to find a partner possessing such traits, the bigger the population served by the website. We investigate whether price competition can lead to segmentation of the two populations. We find that segmentation arises, only if compatibility in quality is relatively important to individuals in comparison to the importance of matching with high quality partners and in comparison to cross network externalities. At the market equilibrium, too many men and women patronize the website that matches high quality individuals. Allowing websites to price discriminate between men and women reduces social welfare.     

The impact on broadband access to the Internet of the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks

In Portugal, until recently, the telecommunications incumbent offered broadband access to the Internet, both through digital subscriber line and cable modem. We estimate the impact on broadband access to the Internet of the structural separation of these two businesses. Using a panel of consumer level data and a random effects mixed logit model, we estimate the price elasticities of demand and the marginal costs of broadband access to the Internet. Based on these estimates, we simulate the effect of structural separation on prices and social welfare. Our estimates indicate that structural separation would cause a substantial welfare increase. These results raise questions about the policy of some countries of allowing the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks.     

Who are the producers and consumers? Value chains and food policy effects in the wheat sector in Pakistan

We develop a disaggregated Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) methodology to disentangle the welfare impacts of policies for various interest groups along the value chain (to disaggregate effects within the “producer” and “consumer” umbrellas). We apply our value chain NRA methodology to the case of Pakistan’s wheat price and trade policy. We analyze the welfare implications for various agents in the wheat-flour value chain from 2000 to 2013, a period characterized by major global price volatility and by regular adjustments of domestic policies. We find that the wheat policy has generally benefitted flour consumers and wheat traders at the expense of wheat farmers, with limited effects on flour millers. Our findings illustrate that the welfare implications of policies can be quite different within the “producer” and “consumer” umbrellas, which has potentially important implications for economic and political economy analyses and for the design of policies that aim to target the poorest groups along value chains.     

审计市场中的合并、产业专用化投资和价格竞争

本文从产业组织的角度，分析了审计市场的合并、产业专用化和价格竞争等竞争行为，并进一步探讨了这些行为对审计质量和社会福利的影响。本文认为，审计质量的信号传递机制推动了产业中的合并行为，而审计产业的专用化投资行为在于策略性地阻止进入。由于审计产品的异质性、信任品特性以及强大的买方谈判能力使得审计市场存在激烈的价格竞争，而合并和产业专用化投资有助于事务所降低成本。因而，审计市场的竞争提高了社会福利。     

国际粮食价格危机的农业政策根源

2007～2008年世界粮食作物价格的急剧上涨的原因很大程度上要归结于各国长期的农业政策。从农业贸易看,农业贸易限制程度远远高于工业贸易,这不利于粮食作物产量在全球的分配;从农业生产看,发达国家和发展中国家完全不同的政策导向,导致了全球农业生产的低效率。应对世界粮食价格飙升最有效的长远机制是全球粮食贸易自由化,减少甚至取消贸易扭曲的农业生产和贸易政策。     

Resale price maintenance and restrictions on dominant firm and industry-wide adoption

We consider a model in which firms use resale price maintenance (RPM) to dampen competition. We find that even though the motive for using RPM is thus anti-competitive, market forces may limit the overall adverse impact on consumers. Indeed, we find that when there are a large number of firms in the market, consumer welfare under a laissez-faire policy might be as high or almost as high as it would be under an alternative policy in which RPM is banned. Government interventions that put an upper limit on the extent of industry-wide adoption of RPM can have adverse welfare effects in the model. We further show that proposed guidelines in the United States and Europe may come close to minimizing welfare.     

国际贸易中的动物福利问题研究及我国的对策

动物福利的出现,一方面是经济发展和社会进步的表现;另一方面,是由于发达国家和发展中国家之间存在着巨大的差异。文章对动物福利和动物福利壁垒内涵作深入的剖析,从市场准入限制、产业竞争力影响和贸易抑制影响等方面分析了动物福利壁垒所产生的经济效应;指出动物福利壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响越来越明显。因此,正确认识动物福利问题、增强动物福利意识、加强动物福利立法、建立预警机制、改革农牧业的生产方式、加大投入和依法抵制新贸易保护主义是我国应对动物福利壁垒的主要策略和措施。     

Consequences of unintended food policies: Food price dynamics subject to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict

Israel’s imposition of military security measures in the Palestinian territories as a consequence of the long-lasting violent conflict between them has negative economic effects on all parties concerned. One crucial outcome is the limited ability to carry out trade, which brings about welfare losses. Conflict-induced policies such as security measures can result in sizable unintended externalities that shape the markets of and the trade in food. We assess the dynamics of daily wholesale prices of food produced in Israel and the West Bank that is traded between them and is therefore subject to restrictions on movement. To do so, we suggest a regime switching cointegration model which is estimated using a novel extension of the Johansen estimation method. We find that the two major wholesale markets of the two regions are integrated with regard to these main trading products. Deviations from price equilibria are quickly adjusted. The model suggests that movement restrictions temporarily cut off markets from each other. Implications of conflict-induced closures for welfare depend on the direction of trade and are harming both Palestinian and Israeli consumers.     

Export behavior of Italian food firms: Does product quality matter?

Using firm-level data we investigate the export behavior of Italian food firms, focusing on the link between total factor productivity (TFP), product quality, and export across heterogeneous destinations. We test the main predictions of an international trade model based on firm heterogeneity in product quality and non-homothetic preferences in consumption. In this setting, the firm’s export intensity should be increasing in the per-capita income of foreign destinations, and the effect should be largely driven by firms’ heterogeneity in product quality. Using different measures of revenue-TFP, and different proxies for product quality, we find strong support for the main model predictions. Moreover, consistent with the Alchian–Allen effect, we find a positive relationship between the quality of exported products and the distance of destination countries.     

The social loss from private monopoly and optimal antitrust enforcement

In this paper we argue that the welfare loss from monopoly equals deadweight loss plus expenditures by monopolists to defend and antitrust enforcers to attack their monopolies. A model of a profit-maximizing monopolist and a social loss-minimizing antitrust enforcer is developed. We find ambiguous effects of deadweight loss and the price of resources used by either party (in maintaining or attacking the monopoly) on the total welfare loss from monopoly. Monopoly profit has a positive but diminishing impact on monopoly welfare loss. Thus the entire monopoly profit will not be transformed into socially useless resource expenditure.     

Bundling, Competition and Quality Investment: A Welfare Analysis

We investigate how bundling affects investment in product quality, and derive welfare implications. A monopolist in a primary market competes with a rival in a complementary market. Bundling is the monopolist’s preferred strategy, since it either extracts surplus from the rival’s investment, or forces the rival to provide low quality. Bundling may reduce welfare without foreclosing the rival, but improves welfare when preventing undesirable investment. Since prohibiting bundling is not appropriate, we introduce a price test for bundled offers that preserves efficiencies from both bundling and quality investment, thereby improving welfare relative to the ‘do-nothing’ scenario. We consequently argue that this test should be applied whenever possible.     

贸易自由化与企业内的产品质量调整

多产品出口企业是中国出口贸易的重要组成部分。在贸易自由化冲击下,该类企业如何调整其核心产品与非核心产品的生产,对于提升企业乃至整体产业的国际竞争力具有重要意义。本文在异质性企业模型基础上内生化产品质量构建理论模型,并使用中国工业企业数据和中国海关数据对模型进行实证检验。研究发现,中间产品进口关税的下降会促使多产品企业对出口产品的质量进行升级,从而提高出口产品定价,且企业的非核心产品质量提升的幅度相对更高,出口价格上升的幅度也更大,即中间品贸易自由化可以缩小多产品企业内的非核心产品和核心产品的质量和价格差距,从而优化企业内的资源配置。异质性分析发现,对于异质性商品而言,关税下降使企业出口产品质量和出口产品价格变化更大,而同质性产品的质量和价格变化则不明显。本文进行了一系列稳健性检验,结果均支持本文的基本结论。     

Raising Rivals' Costs Strategies via Emission Permits Markets

In the present paper we examine the effect of emissions permit price manipulation within an oligopolistic model. We examine the effect that positioning strategies in permits markets have on the degree of competition in the product market as well as on social welfare. The analysis is based on the concept of raising rivals' cost strategies. We find that competition in the product market can be lessened substantially. The welfare effect is ambiguous. If the leader expands its market share at the expense of a less efficient rival, or if it excludes a less efficient entrant, overall efficiency may increase despite the decrease in the industry's output. When efficiency decreases, or when consumers' protection is a policy priority, the initial distribution of permits can be used to control power in the permits market. Such interventions though, improve efficiency only when policy makers have substantial information on the technological structure of the industry, and thus, should be used with caution. Given the importance of information, sharing of information and coordination of actions between policy makers is very important.     

Product appeal,differences in tastes,and export performance: Evidence for Danish chocolate and confectionery

This paper studies the relationship between domestic market performance and export performance. We employ data on production and trade in the Danish chocolate and confectionery industry to obtain estimates of domestic ‘product appeal’ (reflecting non-price factors of domestic performance). Domestic product appeal is influenced not only by inherent characteristics of the product, but also by the tastes and preferences of domestic consumers. For many consumer goods, tastes depend on customs, culture etc. A product’s domestic appeal is therefore an imperfect predictor of foreign demand (and hence of export performance), especially in destinations where tastes differ substantially from domestic tastes. We combine estimates of domestic product appeal with information on destination-specific exports and a novel measure of differences in tastes across countries to confirm this hypothesis. Results are consistent across both a Tobit model with destination-specific censoring point and the BLP estimator, which additionally reveals substantial heterogeneity in tastes for product appeal within countries across consumers.     

PARALLEL TRADE,INTERNATIONAL EXHAUSTION AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS: A WELFARE ANALYSIS*

This paper analyses the issue of parallel trade (arbitrage) for products protected by intellectual property rights. We discuss a basic trade‐off that arises between the ex post better allocation that typically occurs under parallel trade when demand dispersion is not too high, and the ex ante reduced product quality because of lower investment. We show that the size of the welfare effects is significantly affected by the presence of a ‘generic’ product, which represents a form of competition for the monopolist. The monopolist will introduce a ‘fighting brand’ to compete with the generic, which dilutes but does not eliminate the result on the adverse effects of parallel trade on investments.