The importance of EU-15 borders for CEECs agri-food exports: The role of tariffs and non-tariff measures in the pre-accession period

This paper assesses the evolution of the EU-15 market access for the agri-food products, originating from CEECs. A gravity model technique has been used to assess the overall trade resistance (border effect), and to weight its various components such as tariff and non-tariff measures (sanitary and phytosanitary standards, other quality measures) in the pre-accession period (1999–2004). The findings reveal, despite the undertaken integration and trade liberalisation processes, a persisting and significant trade resistance for the CEECs’ agri-food exports to the EU market, even just prior their accession in 2004. Still present difficulties in market access at the time are partially explained by tariff and non-tariff measures, while a large part of border effect remains in the domain of other, presumably non-trade policy related factors (home bias, consumer preferences, etc.). These results indicate that despite the accession process (customs union and adoption of the EU standards), the trade integration of the enlarged EU market was not yet completed in 2004.     

推动中欧纺织品服装贸易的良性发展

作为我国传统出口支柱产业的纺织服装行业,面临着国际市场保护贸易抬头、贸易摩擦不断、市场订单锐减的严峻挑战。2010年中国对欧盟纺织品服装进出口额同比上升23.59%,其中纺织品出口同比上升26.23%,服装出口同比上升22.79%,增幅分别比上年扩大了37.08和28.72个百分点,仍保持世界上最大的纺织服装生产大国、世界上最大的纺织服装出口国的地位。在全球金融危机的环境下,"反倾销"仍是中欧纺织品贸易存在的主要问题。我国要抓住纺织服装产业战略调整的机会,努力实施市场多元化战略,积极推动中欧纺织品服装贸易的良性发展。本文从最直观的数字角度,对近年来中国-欧盟纺织品服装进出口贸易进行了分析,研究了中国-欧盟之间纺织品服装贸易的现状及特征。     

International cattle ID and traceability: Competitive implications for the US

Global standards for animal identification and traceability are evolving rapidly. Major world animal health, trade, and food safety organizations have formally recognized the importance of, and actively promoted, animal identification and traceability system development. Advanced animal traceability systems have been deployed by major beef exporters and are increasingly being adopted by important beef importing countries. This study summarizes and compares animal identification systems across major export and import countries. Results reveal that the United States lags behind both major export and import countries in development and adoption of cattle identification and tracing systems. As such, the United States has placed itself in a vulnerable position relative to competing export countries with respect to demonstrated animal traceability. This status could adversely affect market access in the future for US beef exports.     

技术性贸易壁垒与中国高技术产品出口——基于扩展贸易引力模型的经验分析

本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型,使用2000~2015 年中国同22 个贸易伙伴国的面板数据,并引入和技术性贸易壁垒以及高技术产品密切相关的知识产权保护这一变量,实证考察进口国TBT 对中国高技术产品出口的影响。结果表明：（1）进口国实施 TBT 或进行知识产权保护均会抑制中国高技术产品的出口,但抑制作用并不显著;（2）若进口国将TBT 和知识产权保护相结合形成更为隐蔽的技术性贸易壁垒,将会显著抑制中国高技术产品的出口;（3）中国高技术产品出口呈现行业差异,其中医药制造业受到的抑制效应最大;（4）由于技术模仿和产品同质化现象的存在,中国高技术产品出口会在中高收入国家遭遇更为严重的TBT,对出口的抑制效应会更大。中国应将知识产权保护政策作为应对进口国TBT的一种补充,在保证高技术产品贸易健康发展的同时推动出口产业向中高端发展。     

On the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports

Due to their high protein content, soybeans are important feedstuffs in the European Union (EU). However, the cultivation of soybeans using genetically modified (GM) varieties in non-EU countries is increasing and the EU authorization of GM products takes longer than in other countries, leading to an asynchronous approval between the EU and non-EU countries that might induce soybean trade disruptions. This paper uses an integrated modelling system to simulate Argentina, Brazil and the United States ending soybean exports to the EU. The impact on world trade and on the EU import prices of soy products is analysed with a computable general equilibrium model. EU soy imports are shown to decline, and the import price of soybeans in the EU increases. The effects on EU agricultural markets are analysed based on a partial equilibrium model. Feed costs in the EU are found to increase with poultry and pork the most affected: production and exports decline and imports increase. However, the effects of a trade ban are found to be less profound than in many other studies due to compensating substitution effects at various market levels: increasing imports from third countries, increasing domestic oilseed production and the use of other protein feeds.     

How far from harmonization are sanitary,phytosanitary and quality-related standards? An exporter’s perception approach

Harmonization of trade regulations and standards is perhaps the most contentious issue regarding export markets due to the impacts that it can have on trade. We determine the extent of harmonization as perceived by exporters with respect to the major Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPSs) and quality measures which Chile faces in 16 international fresh fruit markets. The methodology combined qualitative and quantitative techniques. First, the most relevant safety and quality standards and regulations were identified and ranked. Second, a representative sample of exporters was interviewed to assess their perceptions regarding the level of stringency across markets and time for selected regulations. Perceptions were ranked on a likert scale and based on this scale a stringency index was constructed. The results show that Chile faces regulations which can be grouped into the following categories: (i) phytosanitary measures; (ii) tolerance limits for pesticide residues and contaminants; (iii) hygiene requirements; (iv) labeling, marking and packaging; (v) product and process standards; and (vi) registration procedures and other import requirements. The number of regulations varied among countries, ranging from 13 to 3 out of the 14 considered in the study. The most stringent country among the sample as perceived by exporters was México, whereas the least stringent was Saudi Arabia. Additionally, exporters agreed that stringency has increased over time with an average of 15% between 2005 and 2009.     

Do private standards create exclusive supply chains? New evidence from the Peruvian asparagus export sector

Developing countries are increasingly exporting fresh horticultural products to high-income countries. These exports increasingly have to comply with stringent public and private standards, as well as other quality and safety issues. There is an ongoing debate on the effect of private standards on the inclusion of small-scale farmers in export supply chains. With this paper, we contribute to this debate by providing new evidence from the Peruvian asparagus export sector, and by addressing several important methodological shortcomings and gaps in the existing literature. We describe export dynamics using a unique firm level dataset on 567 asparagus export firms from 1993 to 2011 and the evolution of certification to private standards using own survey data from a stratified random sample of 87 export firms. We use an unbalanced panel of the surveyed companies on 19 years and several methods, including fixed effects and GMM estimators, to estimate the causal impact of certification to private standards on companies' sourcing strategy. We find that certification leads to vertical integration and significantly reduces the share of produce that is sourced from external producers, with a larger effect for small-scale producers. When distinguishing between production and processing standards, and between low-level and high-level standards, we find that especially high-level production standards have a negative impact on sourcing from (small-scale) producers.     

贸易自由化与企业内的产品质量调整

多产品出口企业是中国出口贸易的重要组成部分。在贸易自由化冲击下,该类企业如何调整其核心产品与非核心产品的生产,对于提升企业乃至整体产业的国际竞争力具有重要意义。本文在异质性企业模型基础上内生化产品质量构建理论模型,并使用中国工业企业数据和中国海关数据对模型进行实证检验。研究发现,中间产品进口关税的下降会促使多产品企业对出口产品的质量进行升级,从而提高出口产品定价,且企业的非核心产品质量提升的幅度相对更高,出口价格上升的幅度也更大,即中间品贸易自由化可以缩小多产品企业内的非核心产品和核心产品的质量和价格差距,从而优化企业内的资源配置。异质性分析发现,对于异质性商品而言,关税下降使企业出口产品质量和出口产品价格变化更大,而同质性产品的质量和价格变化则不明显。本文进行了一系列稳健性检验,结果均支持本文的基本结论。     

Reducing transatlantic barriers on U.S.-EU agri-food trade: What are the possible gains?

In recent years, the EU and the U.S. have engaged in discussions to lower trade and investment barriers and strengthen transatlantic integration. For food and agricultural trade, non-tariff measures (NTMs) such as sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) stand out as significant barriers. This study combines sector-level econometric modeling with an agriculture-focused computable generable equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate various transatlantic liberalization scenarios on U.S.-EU agri-food trade. The simulations quantify the effect from tariff removal and addressing NTMs. The magnitude of the gains depend upon the level of tariff liberalization, the depth of integration, and possible consumer demand changes.     

我国机电产品出口三元边际及其影响因素——基于“一带一路”国家的实证研究

“一带一路”建设为我国机电产品出口增长带来新机遇,为了探究我国机电产品出口增长的主要推动力,本文基于Un Comtrade数据,对我国机电产品的出口进行分解。实证分析结果表明,我国对“一带一路”沿线国家机电产品出口增长的主要推动力是数量边际,贡献率为82.45%;而价格边际与扩展边际的贡献率分别为7.00%与10.55%。我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的系列因素对机电产品出口三元边际存在显著的差异性影响,主要包括进口国的经济规模、人均收入、与我国的地理距离、高层互访、基础设施状况、我国的直接投资存量、亚投行的金融支持、地理邻近以及是否与我国签署自由贸易协定。     

基于制造业技术创新的战略性贸易政策与我国产业结构优化研究

文章采用理论分析、数理建模、实证分析等方法,对战略性贸易政策在制造业技术创新、产业结构升级与优化中的重要作用进行了研究。研究结果表明：（1）LZFTR（政府资金投入）与CJP（初级品）的相关系数r＝-0.964,LZFTR与ZCP（工业制成品）的相关系数r＝0.982（P＜0.01）。表明战略性贸易政策能够有效降低初级品出口比重,增加工业制品的出口比重,从而促进出口贸易结构不断升级与优化;（2） 战略性贸易政策对高技术制造业产品出口贸易固定效应、随机效应模型系数值均为正,战略性贸易政策政府研究发展补贴每增加100%,高技术产业对外贸易结构就会优化0.0042,说明战略性贸易政策对高技术制造业产品的外贸易结构变化有正向促进作用;（3）战略性贸易政策对各高技术制造行业贸易结构的影响不尽相同,其对医药制造业及各小类行业对外贸易出口产业结构优化均有明显的促进作用,其对仪器仪表出口贸易结构优化有着明显的促进作用,但是对医疗设备与器械制造出口贸易结构优化的促进作用并不显著。在此基础上作者提出了推动我国实现产业结构优化的相关战略性贸易政策建议,以期为提高我国制造业的自主创新能力,优化产业结构提供一定的理论参考。     

Saving two in a billion:: quantifying the trade effect of European food safety standards on African exports

A growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries. This paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the EU on food exports from Africa. We employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the EU standard, in contrast to those suggested by international standards. The analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 European countries and nine African countries between 1989 and 1998. Our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the EU will have a negative impact on African exports of cereals, dried fruits and nuts to Europe. The new EU standard, which would reduce health risk by approximately 1.4 deaths per billion a year, will decrease these African exports by 64% or US$ 670 million, in contrast to regulation set through an international standard.     

U.S. national security export controls: Implications for global competitiveness of U.S. high-tech firms

U.S. exporters of high-technology, ‘dual-use’ products are competitively disadvantaged in global markets by the complexity, range, and stringency of U.S. national security export controls. This paper demonstrates that fungibility of high technology and lax interpretation of multilateral export control agreements by other advanced countries have made the existing control regime ineffective. It further shows that persistent U.S. restrictiveness of exports in non-critical, widely available goods and technologies may needlessly and permanently erode U.S. firms' competitive position in existing as well as rapidly-opening markets worldwide. The need to revise the notion of national security to include not only military security, but also its complement, economic security, is discussed. The pivotal issue of enforceability of multilateral controls is explored, and corporate strategies for U.S. high-tech firms to achieve export control policy change are suggested.     

Export intensity,scope, and destinations: Evidence from Brazil

How do the three dimensions of geographic export diversification—namely, (1) export intensity, (2) export scope, and (3) export destinations—interact in determining firm performance? How does the export intensity–performance relationship change considering export scope and destinations? Drawing on institution-based and resource-based lenses, we argue that differences between home and destination country institutional environments are amplified by the scope or variety of export destinations. As firm resources nurtured in the home country may not fit an increasing number of different foreign institutional environments, the export intensity–firm performance relationship turns negative. Conversely, our panel data analysis suggests a positive relationship between export intensity and performance when exporters from an emerging economy increase their exports to a limited number of other emerging economies. Thus, our findings extend conventional wisdom on the export intensity–firm performance relationship and suggest that the international marketing strategy literature needs to simultaneously incorporate three dimensions (including export destinations) into the geographic export diversification construct.     

Broadband infrastructure and export growth

With the digital transformation of the economy and society, high-speed Internet is becoming an important supporting infrastructure for international trade activities. This study treats the pilot policy of the Broadband China strategy as a quasi-natural experiment and investigates the ways in which broadband infrastructure development affects export trade in Chinese cities. Empirical results show that export trade in the pilot cities increases by 6.82%–18.8% on average as a result of the Broadband China policy intervention. Our study shows that this policy can effectively promote the use of Internet facilities, and broadband infrastructure can significantly promote the growth of a city's export trade. Broadband infrastructure influences export trade through the direct channel of improving information efficiency, which in turn lowers logistics costs, promotes trade efficiency, and reduces barriers to trade. There is no significant regional heterogeneity and urban characteristics heterogeneity in the export trade effect. Although broadband infrastructure can affect exports through the indirect channels of industrial structure and technological innovation, the direct effect accounts for much of the total effect.     

全球管道天然气贸易节点重要性评价

因各国天然气需求增加,全球天然气贸易局势愈加复杂,本文构建全球管道天然气贸易复杂网络,从静态网络结构特征与动态网络功能维度选取多个指标,运用“熵值法”和“时序加权平均算子”构建节点国家重要性动态综合评价模型,利用2013~2019年全球管道天然气贸易数据进行实证分析。结果表明:从出口视角看,俄罗斯占据核心地位;哈萨克斯坦和挪威等靠近网络中心、出口稳定;荷兰、美国和英国起贸易枢纽作用;阿尔及利亚和加拿大等虽出口量大,但贸易关系单一。德国、法国和中国等国家,受限于能源禀赋,在进口端占据重要地位。美洲、欧洲地区管道天然气贸易流转速率和市场化程度优于中东、亚太和非洲地区。最后,本文提出了优化我国管道天然气进口的相关建议。     

Geographical indication and wine exports. An empirical investigation considering the major European producers

Adopting a gravity framework and using data from 1995 to 2009 for France, Italy and Spain, we investigate whether the designation of the production area has a positive pay-off in terms of greater export values, volumes and presence in different export markets. We find that quality wines produced in specified regions (QWPSR) are associated with higher exports values, while higher export volumes tend to materialize only towards high-income destination markets. Besides, the geographical designation appears increasing the extensive margin of trade. Therefore, QWPSR may represent a strategic tool for differentiation granting competitiveness in both traditional and less habitual markets. Not all producers, yet, seem to have benefited to the same extent from the geographical designation, raising the question of what harmonizing and/or promotional strategy should be adopted to enhance the effectiveness of the quality wine protection system.     

The impact of food safety standards on processed food exports from developing countries

This paper examines the impact of food safety standards on processed food exports in developing countries. A panel data econometric analysis of processed food exports in developing countries was undertaken. The Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standard (SPS) is incorporated into the model to capture the impact of food safety standards. The empirical model shows that food safety standards imposed by developed countries could impede processed food exports from developing countries. This could emerge because practically, SPS is less transparent than tariffs or quotas. There is an ample room for developed countries to tweak the standards stronger than necessary to achieve optimal levels of social protection, and to twist the related testing and certification procedures to make their competing imports more competitive. In addition, limited supply-side capacity of developing countries, especially in terms of resources, manpower as well as institution, constrains the countries to overcome food safety standards. Because of the potential benefits that could emerge from imposing food safety standards such as a reduction in transaction costs and trade friction, developing countries should view SPS not just as a trade barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standard and market sophistication. Supply-side capacity in developing countries needed to be improved, especially upgrading agriculture sector. Multilateral efforts are also needed to mobilize additional financial and technical assistance to help redress constraints in developing countries in meeting the required food safety standards imposed by developed countries.     

国际金融危机对主要石油出口国的影响及其对策

主要石油出口国与国际金融市场存在密不可分的联系.石油出口国通过石油出口积累的石油美元,一方面逐步建立起独立自主完整的国民经济体系,另一方面为繁荣国际金融市场和世界经济提供资金支持.国际金融危机对俄罗斯、中东、拉美、非洲等主要石油出口国和地区的经济、财政、对外贸易等产生了重大影响,造成这些国家的货币贬值,石油贸易收入减少,项目投资缩减,经济增长减速.俄罗斯应对金融危机的措施主要包括:救助银行体系,稳定汇率吸引外资,向实体经济投资,以减税、国家贷款援助等方式帮助能源企业缓解资金压力,适度救助股市和楼市等.中东、拉美、非洲地区各产油国除了从金融、外汇、货币政策等方面采取一系列应对措施以外,更多地强调加强地区合作,共同应对危机.主要石油出口国实施的一系列措施,有助于减轻国际金融危机带来的不利影响,对稳定国际金融和世界经济发挥了积极的作用.     

An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market

This paper develops an economic analysis of the impacts of further trade liberalization scenarios on Asian dairy markets, using a world dairy model incorporating both vertical and spatial characteristics of the world dairy sector. Japan and Korea’ producers will suffer much bigger losses from trade liberalization than other countries in the region; Japan and Korea’s producers get much more protection from trade distortions than from domestic subsidy. India is a potential competitive exporter if Asia is liberalized. China and India are potential competitive exporters under global free trade. South East Asia and other South Asian countries remain importers under free trade. Greater trade liberalization around the world increases exports for potential exporters and/or ease importing pressure for potential importers. The increasing order of competitiveness of Asian dairy economies sectors is found to be Japan, Korea, South East Asia, other South Asia, China and India. China and India consumers would lose from world trade liberalization, but the other countries’ consumer surplus will increase.