Potential economic impacts of zero thresholds for unapproved GMOs: The EU case

As the pipeline of new biotech crops has continued to expand, regulatory approvals of such crops across different countries have become less synchronized. As a result, some biotech crops can be cultivated in one or more countries but may not be approved for use in others. Under such circumstances, small amounts of unapproved biotech crops can be found in the food/feed supplies of some countries and under zero threshold policies they must be withdrawn and can lead to market disruptions. In this paper we examine the potential economic implications of regulatory asynchronicity and zero threshold policies for unapproved GMOs using the EU as a case study. To measure the potential economic impacts from possible trade disruptions between the EU and its major suppliers of soybeans, we develop a spatial equilibrium model and examine alternative scenarios where bilateral trade flows are set to zero. From our analysis we find that when asynchronous approvals become a systemic problem leading to trade disruptions with multiple trading partners the impacts can be severe. For instance, we find that if the EU were to stop imports from its three main suppliers the US, Brazil and Argentina, it would pay roughly 220% more for soybeans, 211% more for soybean meal and 202% more for soy oil.     

基于我国进出口产品结构的人民币跨境结算失衡分析

我国名义进出口产品结构的技术水平较高,但对我国进出口产品技术结构进行分析,得出我国出口产品的实际技术水平不高、产品差异性不强,在贸易结算货币选择上居于不利地位,而进口产品因其较强差异性在结算货币选择上具有话语权,我国进出口产品结构是导致人民币跨境结算失衡的重要原因。     

Water scarcity and food trade in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries

This study investigates food trade patterns in relation to water resources availability in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMED). Examinations show that most of these countries have a high dependence on the import of water intensive crops – cereal, vegetable oil and sugar, in the domestic food supply. The region as a whole is marginally a net exporter of fruits and vegetables, while variations are substantial across countries. Multi-variable regression analyses show that intensification of water scarcity is an important factor in explaining the increase in food import in the SEMED countries during the past two decades. It also finds that while GDP per capita has a strong influence on the level of food import in a country, its impact on changes in the import during the same period is rather modest. No significant relationship is found between the trade of fruits and vegetables and water resources availability. The projection on food import with respect to the decline in per capita water resources availability results in an increase of 40%, 39% and 14%, respectively, for cereal, vegetable oil and sugar by 2020 in the region, holding other factors constant. The European Union (EU) is the major food trade partner of the SEMED countries, except for cereal. About 70% of the fruit export and 55% of the vegetable export of the region currently go to the EU market. Expanding the export of fruits and vegetables is conducive to improving the value of water use in the SEMED countries. However, the expansion is constrained partly by the barriers in the destination markets, notably the EU.     

Saving two in a billion:: quantifying the trade effect of European food safety standards on African exports

A growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries. This paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the EU on food exports from Africa. We employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the EU standard, in contrast to those suggested by international standards. The analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 European countries and nine African countries between 1989 and 1998. Our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the EU will have a negative impact on African exports of cereals, dried fruits and nuts to Europe. The new EU standard, which would reduce health risk by approximately 1.4 deaths per billion a year, will decrease these African exports by 64% or US$ 670 million, in contrast to regulation set through an international standard.     

推动中欧纺织品服装贸易的良性发展

作为我国传统出口支柱产业的纺织服装行业,面临着国际市场保护贸易抬头、贸易摩擦不断、市场订单锐减的严峻挑战。2010年中国对欧盟纺织品服装进出口额同比上升23.59%,其中纺织品出口同比上升26.23%,服装出口同比上升22.79%,增幅分别比上年扩大了37.08和28.72个百分点,仍保持世界上最大的纺织服装生产大国、世界上最大的纺织服装出口国的地位。在全球金融危机的环境下,"反倾销"仍是中欧纺织品贸易存在的主要问题。我国要抓住纺织服装产业战略调整的机会,努力实施市场多元化战略,积极推动中欧纺织品服装贸易的良性发展。本文从最直观的数字角度,对近年来中国-欧盟纺织品服装进出口贸易进行了分析,研究了中国-欧盟之间纺织品服装贸易的现状及特征。     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.     

Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay

The 2006-2008 food price spike raised concerns about the impact of high commodity prices on poverty in developing countries. This paper addresses these concerns in relation to Uruguay, a small country that exports agricultural commodities and imports fuels. Applying a general equilibrium model, we find that, as a whole, an increase in commodity prices has a positive effect on the economy of Uruguay. Benefits obtained through a growth in export activities are partially outweighed by an increase in crude oil prices. In this context, extreme poverty increases. As in other countries, the increase in food prices affects the already poor population, who become even poorer. This fact highlights the need for policies that mitigate the negative effects of price shocks.     

新疆FDI对外贸易对经济增长影响的实证研究

利用新疆1985-2010年时间序列数据,根据协整理论、VAR模型和方差分解等方法研究了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:新疆FDI、对外贸易与经济增长相互之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。进出口贸易的增长都将导致GDP的增长,但两者对经济增长的影响力度不同,进口明显大于出口。FDI对经济增长的影响,大部分时期处于低迷状态,随着时间推移,进出口贸易对经济增长的影响越来越大。     

How Different Are Safeguards from Antidumping? Evidence from US Trade Policies Toward Steel

Use of temporary trade barriers (TTBs) has proliferated across countries, industries, and even policy instruments. We construct a panel of bilateral, product-level US steel imports that are matched to a unique data set on trade policy exclusions that are associated with the 2002 US steel safeguard in order to compare the trade impacts that result from application of various TTB policies over 1989–2003. We find that the trade effects of an applied safeguard—which is statutorily expected to follow the principle of nondiscriminatory treatment—can nevertheless compare closely to the application of the explicitly discriminatory antidumping policy. Our results on trade policy substitutability complement other recent research on these increasingly important forms of import protection.     

市场化减排政策对我国钢铁行业的影响——基于偏均衡建模的分析

论文运用偏均衡建模的方法,分析了市场化减排政策对于我国钢铁行业竞争力的影响。论文采用基于减排技术组合的减排成本曲线,分析了不同的障碍情景下,引入市场化减排政策对于钢铁价格、进出口价格、进出口量、净出口、利润和排放等关键参数的影响。文章发现市场化减排政策尽管可以大幅度地降低CO2排放量,但是对钢铁行业的竞争力存在一定程度的负面影响,主要体现在净出口和利润的降低。而降低减排技术的采用障碍会弱化减排政策实施对钢铁行业的负面效果。此外,通过对两种边境调节措施的分析（出口补贴和进口品征税）发现,出口补贴政策对于行业净出口和利润的积极作用非常微弱,相较而言进口品征税政 策对于行业净出口和利润的提高作用更为明显,但同时二者均会轻微的削弱减排效果。     

2008年中国对外贸易发展的策略选择

目前中国对外贸易中存在的突出问题是贸易顺差过大、贸易结构不合理、贸易摩擦和壁垒加剧、资源和环境代价大。但是伴随着中国经济持续的平稳健康发展,2008年中国对外贸易呈现出良好的发展趋势。为了中国对外贸易在2008年以至未来的发展中能坚持走可持续发展的道路,中国对外贸易发展应选择如下的策略:积极扩大进口,实现贸易平衡;开拓国内市场,促进出口产品内销;加快产业转型,改善对外贸易结构;提高产品质量,应对外贸技术壁垒。     

Product standards and developing country agricultural exports: The case of the European Union

This paper shows that voluntary product standards in EU food and agriculture markets can have significant trade effects. In particular for all countries and for goods that are raw or lightly processed, EU standards can often be trade-inhibiting. However, internationally harmonized EU standards—those that are equivalent to ISO norms—have much weaker trade effects, and in some cases are even trade-promoting. EU standards may have hurt developed countries more than developing countries, but this result is dependent on the sector. At a policy level, the results highlight the importance of dealing with the trade effects of voluntary standards in major markets, not just mandatory public standards.     

Consumer information,labelling and international trade in agri-food products

The focus of the World Trade Organization is establishing limits on governments’ ability to impose trade barriers in response to producers’ requests for protection. In recent years, however, requests for protection from imports has increasingly come from consumers over issues ranging from animal welfare concerns, employment of child labour, the use of growth hormones, differing environmental standards and GM foods. The current international trade regime is ill-suited to deal with consumer-based protectionism. This paper develops a model that explicitly incorporates consumer concerns into an international trade model and compares the result with the standard treatment. Further, using the model incorporating consumer concerns, a labelling policy for imports is compared to an import embargo. The labelling policy is found to be superior to an embargo. Implications are drawn for future trade negotiations pertaining to sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade.     

Recent trends in Australian countertrade: A cross-national analysis

This paper presents and analyses data on recent trends in both voluntary and government-mandated countertrade in Australia. The analysis reveals that compensation is the most frequently used form of countertrade. The USSR and the PRC are the major nations involved. The primary category of Australian imports are capital goods. Inputs and capital goods are the major categories of Australian exports. Both Australian imports and exports are primarily finished products. Aerospace products, computer software systems, and hardware components are the major categories of civil offsets. The aerospace and weapons-related industries are the major categories of defence offsets. A familiarity with recent trends in Australian reciprocal trade will enable international marketing managers to identify and take advantage of emerging opportunities in the Australian marketplace.     

“一带一路”建设与中国出口效率提升——基于面板数据随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

“一带一路”是深化改革开放、谋求共同发展的重大战略，国际贸易是重要的桥梁和纽带。本文采用基于面板数据随机前沿引力模型，对“一带一路”沿线国家进行实证分析，实证结果表明，GDP、总人口、中国对外投资、中国从各国进口、是否签订自由贸易协定、是否陆地接壤等指标均对中国出口产生正向效应，距离对中国出口产生负向效应。我们应该加快贸易通道建设，稳步推进“设施联通”；适当扩大对沿线国家的进口，发挥引领带动作用；积极参与自由贸易区谈判，提升双边贸易深度；加大对沿线国家的投资与开发，加强“政策沟通”。     

国际贸易与内生经济增长——基于 DGE 理论分析与实证检验

本文基于开放条件下的内生经济增长理论,构建居民、贸易与非贸易企业三部门的动态一般均衡理论分析框架,演绎了出口贸易、消费品与中间产品进口贸易以及加工贸易对经济增长的效应及其内生作用机理,并采用动态面板数据模型GMM估计方法予以实证检验。研究发现,消费品进口贸易对经济增长具有相同单位的边际制约效应;出口贸易通过直接与间接拉动效应以及收入效应促进经济增长,中间产品进口贸易与加工贸易通过直接与间接推动效应以及收入效应促进经济增长;另外,出口贸易与加工贸易促进经济增长还存在“乘数”现象。本文的发现对于我国经济发展“新常态”背景下的贸易政策改革与创新具有启示意义。     

The EU entry price system for fresh fruits and vegetables – Paper tiger or powerful market barrier?

The EU protects EU growers of 15 kinds of fresh fruits and vegetables against international competition by the entry price system (EPS), which is designed to restrict imports below the product-specific, politically designated entry price level. This study investigates the relevance of the EPS per product and country of origin. We develop two indicators for the effectiveness of the EPS, which serve as variables in a cluster analysis identifying four classes differing in the relevance of the EPS. The relevance of the EPS is found to be heterogeneous among products as well as countries of origin. It is highest for artichokes, courgettes, cucumbers, lemons, plums and tomatoes. The influence of the EPS on apples, clementines and pears is significantly lower, and of least relevance for apricots, mandarins, oranges, peaches and nectarines and table grapes. The EPS has the greatest effect on countries which neighbour the EU, whereas it is of minor importance for exports from far-away countries with the exception of China and South Africa.     

Assessing the relevance of EU SPS measures to the food export sector: Evidence from a developing agro-food exporting country

This study was undertaken to assess whether SPS measures prevailing in the European Union (EU) have had an effect on the export of fishery and horticultural products from Mauritius. Specific objectives were to assess and compare the importance of EU SPS measures as an export determinant for Mauritian fishery and horticultural products exports, to determine whether these measures have acted as a barrier to trade and lastly to describe the compliance strategy adopted by exporters using firm-level surveys and in-depth interviews with key informants. The results suggest that, most respondents considered that public and private SPS requirements were not an important export determinant in agro-food trade with the EU and were not acting as barriers to exports. The compliance strategy used by the majority of exporters was mainly reactive.     

2011年中国石油和天然气进出口状况分析

2011年,中国包括原油、成品油、液化石油气(LPG)和其他产品在内的石油净进口量为27286万吨,增长达7.6％.国内石油消费量在2010年大幅跃升12.7％之后,2011年增长5.5％,达到45625万吨.石油进口依存度由2010年的58.7％提高到59.8％.进口原油占加工量的比例由2010年的55.6％提高到56.4％.汽柴油出口减少和燃料油进口增多使成品油净进口量达到1481万吨,比2010年增长48.1％,达到2008年以来最高水平.柴油再次呈现净进口.在炼厂气供应增加和天然气消费猛增的冲击下,液化石油气净进口量继续下降1.8％,至224万吨.包括液化天然气和管道天然气在内的天然气进口量增幅高达89％.2012年,国内经济增长放缓可能使油品需求增长进一步减弱,加工量增加将使油品供应增长与需求保持同步,对进口原油的需求将继续上升.在进口量继续大幅上升的同时,国内天然气进口依存度将由2011年的21.2％升至28％左右.     

The real threat to GM crops in poor countries: consumer and policy resistance to GM foods in rich countries

In most poor countries today, farmers still plant no GM food or feed crops at all. Some are now planting GM cotton, but GM food and feed crops have not yet been grown commercially anywhere in developing Asia or the Middle East, and in only one African country (South Africa). Government authorities in most of these countries have not yet given farmers official permission to plant any GM food or feed crops—superficially in most cases because of precautionary concerns about biological safety. The more fundamental reason is now a fear that consumers in high-income importing regions, such as Europe and Japan, will shun imports from any country that begins planting GM varieties. The new EU regulation calling for strict labelling and traceability on all GM-derived foods and feeds (requiring a costly physical segregation of GM from non-GM all the way up the marketing chain) will further discourage the planting of GM crops in poor countries.