Local Economic Structure and Growth

Abstract

This paper tests how the local economic structure—measured by local sector specialization, competition and diversity—affects growth of manufacturing sectors. Most of the empirical literature assumes that in the long run more productive regions will attract more workers and use employment growth as a measure of local productivity growth. However, this approach is based on strong assumptions, such as those of national labour markets and homogeneous labour. This paper shows that if we relax these assumptions, regional adjusted wage growth is a better measure of productivity growth than employment growth. This measure is used in order to study regional growth in Portuguese regions between 1985 and 1994. Evidence is found of MAR externalities in some sectors and no evidence of Jacobs or Porter externalities in most of the sectors. These results are at odds with the findings for employment-based regressions, which show that regional concentration and the region's size have a negative effect in most of the sectors. It is also shown that simply using regional wage growth would overstate the effect of regional concentration and competition on long-run growth.     

现代经济增长理论的演进

经济增长理论是一个古老的话题。现代经济增长理论则是直接从凯恩斯理论基础上发展起来的增长理论。现代经济增长理论从哈罗德和多马的研究开始,到新古典增长理论,再到新经济增长理论(内生经济增长理论),取得了长足的发展。本文就对现代经济增长理论的发展加以综述。     

The impact of coding time on the estimation of school effects

Multilevel growth curve models are becoming invaluable in educational research because they model changes in student outcomes efficiently. The coding of the time variable in these models plays a crucial role as illustrated in this study for the case of a three-level quadratic growth curve model. This paper shows clearly how the choice of a time coding affects school effects estimates and their interpretation. A new definition for school effects for growth curve models with random intercepts and slopes is proposed. This study recommends that the choice of a time coding should not only be based on the ease of interpretation and model convergence but also on its consequences on the student status and growth parameter estimates. The current application illustrates that in general the school effects for student growth in well-being and language achievement in secondary school, are greater for student growth than for student status.     

An essay: limited growth,problems of full employment,and the viciousness of easy solutions

This paper reviews some of the possible effects that a slowdown in national rates of economic growth might have on levels of unemployment in an economically advanced nation. The consequences of three types of growth ceilings are considered; “zero population growth”, “limited growth” and “restricted growth”.     

交通"又好又快"发展诊断研究

从“又好又快”与“又快又好”关系、又好又快发展特征和发展要求三方面研究了区域交通“又好又快”发展的内涵；基于又好又快内涵分别从“好”的方面与“快”的方面提出了诊断指标体系；基于双层模糊综合评价研究了交通“又好又快”诊断方法与过程。以江苏省2006年综合交通状况为例对其“又快又好”所处状态进行诊断。文中对区域交通“又好又快”发展健康状态提供了一种诊断思路与方法。     

A generalization of the logistic growth function and its estimation

Summary This paper presents a generalization of the logistic growth function based on a model for relative growth rates. The basic relative growth rate model is based on the Riccati differential equation, which has a solution that closely resembles the familiar S -shaped logistic curve. For estimation purposes, a statistical version of this model is developed in which linear, exponential, and modified exponential growth in addition to logistic growth arise as special cases under various statistical hypotheses. The growth of yeast cells, population growth of the Netherlands and an example from the telephone industry are provided as illustrations of the model.     

THE DECADES‐LONG DISPUTE OVER SCALE EFFECTS IN THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The so‐called “new growth theory” is characterized by the now Nobel Prize winning insight that ideas are a nonrival input to and output from endogenous investment in innovation. Nonrivalry implies increasing returns to scale, but this also unintentionally creates an empirically disputed scale effect that a growing population implies an ever‐increasing growth rate. Empirical evidence supports fully‐endogenous growth without scale effects, but theoretical issues sustain the decades‐long dispute over exactly how to negate the scale effect. This article surveys theoretical approaches to resolving the scale effect and shows how four generations of endogenous growth theory are defined by the maturing of modeling techniques for constraining increasing returns. The synthesis suggests that the dispute over scale effects is really a narrative about how the powerful application of increasing returns has followed a standard theoretical development pattern. This implies that a fourth generation is now emerging that negates the scale effect while retaining fully‐endogenous growth without relying on assumptions of linearity. Instead, the market response to excessive increasing returns to innovation constrains explosive growth by expanding the market, rather than by a linear assumption. This latest class of endogenous growth models may be the final chapter to resolving the long‐running dispute.     

资源型企业增长过度吗？——兼对可持续增长理论的评价与检验

本文以包钢稀土、西山煤电等四家资源型企业为研究对象,建立理论分析框架,用传统的可持续增长理论进行评价,并对评价结论进行检验,结果发现：虽然资源型企业近10年来的实际增长率高于可持续增长率,表现为超速增长状态,但是使用财务杠杆水平、Z记分模型与经济增加值检验分析,样本企业并没有出现财务资源约束、产生财务危机以及毁损企业价值等状况。说明传统的可持续增长理论不能解释目前资源型企业是否可持续增长。本文对其原因做了进一步的分析,同时结合资源型企业的实际财务状况,提出可持续增长政策建议。     

Financial innovation and bank growth: The role of institutional environments

This research evaluates the impact of financial innovation on bank growth and how their growth is affected by various dimensions of institutional environments’ interaction with financial innovation. To address these relationships, we use different measures of financial innovation and bank growth from a panel dataset of 40 countries (OECD and non-OECD) over a sample period spanning from 1989 to 2011. There are three main findings herein. First, banks located in countries with a higher level of financial innovation exhibit better growth in assets, loans, and profits. This positive linkage remains highly significant in the subsample without considering the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. Second, bank regulations, financial reforms, and country governance indicators tend to weaken the relationship between financial innovation and bank growth. Third, globalization leans toward strengthening this relationship.     

An examination of the causal relationship between savings and growth in the third world

Past studies reveal a correlation between savings and GDP growth in the Third World. Those studies hypothesize that higher rates of savings cause higher growth rates of real GDP. This paper explores an alternative hypothesis: that higher growth rates of GDP cause increased savings. Higher growth rates of income boost the rate of savings and attract more foreign savings. The difference between these two hypotheses is the direction of causality. This study investigates the direction of causality using the Engle-Granger error-correction model or the Granger causality test, whichever is appropriate. The findings support the latter hypothesis in more cases.     

经济发展质量及其指标体系初探

将经济增长从依靠投入、追求数量的增长逐步转变为注重经济发展质量的提高是转变经济发展方式的重要内涵和目标追求,而经济发展质量的提高又需要建立与之相配套的指标体系进行综合评价。文章立足于对经济发展质量的研究,参考借鉴了德国稳定增长法所设立的衡量经济发展质量的4大指标,提出了建立与国际接轨,具有中国特色的经济发展质量指标体系的初步构想。     

我国电子信息业上市公司财务可持续增长实证研究

本文通过大量收集近几年来我国电子信息业上市公司的财务数据,运用范霍恩财务可持续增长静态模型,通过威尔科克森检验检验上市公司是否实现可持续增长。本文还对上市公司实现可持续增长情况的原因进行多角度分析。最后,本文为电子信息业的财务可持续增长提出意见建议。     

Patterns of technology,industry concentration,and productivity growth without scale effects

This paper investigates the relationship between geographic patterns of industry and economic growth in a two-country model of trade with no scale effect, where productivity growth is generated by firm investment in process innovation. We find that dispersed equilibria with industry located in both countries produce higher growth rates than concentrated equilibria with all industry located in one country. The highest growth rate arises for equal industry shares and no productivity gap, implying that industry concentration has a negative effect on overall growth. Convergence towards a dispersed equilibrium is contingent on transport costs and knowledge dispersion.     

Child Growth in the Time of Drought

This paper examines the impact of rainfall shocks on a measure of child health, growth in height, drawing on a unique household panel data set from rural Zimbabwe. We find that children aged 12 to 24 months lose 1.5-2 cm of growth in the aftermath of a drought. Catch-up growth in these children is limited so that this growth faltering has a permanent effect. By contrast, there is no evidence that older children experience a slowdown in growth. There is some evidence that the loss in growth is unequally distributed with children residing in poorer households and offspring of women who are daughters of the household head appearing to be especially vulnerable.     

Inflation and firm growth: A reassessment

Investigations into the impact of inflation on firm growth have resulted in ambiguous conclusions within the economic growth and financial management literature. This paper will attempt to clarify this situation and describe conditions under which firm growth will be helped or hindered by inflaction. This is accomplished by constructing a financial modelling framework which incorporates the findings of earlier research and allows the various effects to be contrasted and cumulatively assessed. Our findings suggest that conditions under which inflation may be beneficial to firm growth do exist but are realistically improbable.     

中国多维度益贫式增长的测度及其潜在来源分解研究

本文构建多维度益贫式增长(Pro-Poor Growth)度量方法,对中国是否实现多维度益贫式增长进行实证度量,将益贫式增长的潜在来源分解为经济增长、社会收入初次分配和再分配三部分,并将促进多维度益贫式增长的政策划分为促进社会收入再分配和初次分配政策。研究表明,1981~2005年中国在部分年份实现了收入维度益贫式增长;而在教育、医疗以及综合福利维度未实现益贫式增长。影响因素不是社会收入再分配和收入增长,而是社会收入初次分配。教育人力资本、社会保障对益贫式增长有一定影响但不显著。     

人口老龄化条件下的经济平衡增长路径

本文将人口老龄化因素变量引入到索洛增长模型中，建立了包含人口老龄化因素变量的经济平衡增长路径方程，进而分析了人口老龄化因素对经济平衡增长路径的影响效应。由此在理论上证明了，人口老龄化因素对经济增长存在正、负或零等不同的作用效应，而相关的政策选择将影响人口老龄化的作用效应。     

The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is, therefore, the weighted average of the high-phase and low-phase growth rates, with the weight being the frequency of the two phases. We estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high-phase and low-phase growth rates. Growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix, while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only, specifically, the relative importance of manufacturing. Overall, our results strongly reject the notion that city-level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle.     

Estimating the effects of democratization in African countries: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper analyzes impacts of democratization in Africa, including effects of improved, property rights on economic growth and of greater political participation on civil violence. Democracy is endogenous to economic growth and other outcomes, which hampers most, empirical analysis. This paper uses a minimum distance simultaneous equations estimation to, account for all endogenous variables while including time and country fixed effects. The method yields a test of fit of the model, which is strong. Results indicate a positive significant effect of property rights institutions on economic growth in the presence of time and country fixed effects. Estimates also show a negative significant effect of political participation on civil violence and, strong effects of aid per capita on both economic growth and civil violence.     

The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas. To obtain growth rates, we use a Markov-switching model that separates a city's growth path into two distinct phases (high and low), each with its own growth rate. The simple average growth rate over some period is, therefore, the weighted average of the high-phase and low-phase growth rates, with the weight being the frequency of the two phases. We estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high-phase and low-phase growth rates. Growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix, while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only, specifically, the relative importance of manufacturing. Overall, our results strongly reject the notion that city-level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle.