Experimental Estimates of Taxpayer Ethics

This paper extends the existing literature on taxpayer ethics in three ways. First, we construct a two-stage model of decision making, which allows us to disentangle risk preferences from ethical motivations for income tax compliance. Second, we develop a new experimental data set, which permits us to estimate the magnitudes of the relevant personality traits, risk aversion and morality, at the individual level. Third, we combine the experimental data with participant surveys so that ethical preferences are not only measured but also linked to demographic characteristics. We find that ethical preferences are correlated with risk aversion, age, gender, and marital status, among other characteristics.     

Risk and intertemporal substitution: Livestock portfolios and off-take among Kenyan pastoralists

Most decisions involve variability in two dimensions: uncertainty across states of nature and fluctuations over time. The stakes involved in tradeoffs between these variability dimensions are especially high for the poor who have difficulty managing and recovering from shocks. We assume Epstein and Zin recursive preferences and estimate risk aversion and intertemporal substitution as distinct preferences using data from Kenyan herders. Results suggest that the assumption implicit in additive expected utility models that relative risk aversion (RRA) is the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) is flawed. Specifically, our RRA and EIS estimates are consistent with a preference for the early resolution of uncertainty, which we believe is driven importantly by the instrumental value of early uncertainty resolution. This same preference pattern is consistent with asset smoothing in response to a dynamic asset threshold.     

TESTING THE STRUCTURAL STABILITY OF A RISK AVERSION PARAMETER IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET*

This paper empirically investigates the structural stability of a risk aversion parameter in a model in which risk premia exist in forward foreign exchange. To maximize his or her lifetime utility, a representative investor invests in a riskless bond denominated in each major currency: dollar, DM and pound. We test the structural stability of the risk aversion parameter in Japanese data using Euler equations. The results show that the risk aversion parameter was invariant from 1973 to 1991.     

Stochastic Dominance Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Subsistence Crop Production in the Eastern Ethiopian Highlands: The Case of the Hunde-Lafto Area

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether investment in soil and water conservation results in a higher yield and income and/or mitigate variability in yield and income to subsistence farm households in the Hunde-Lafto area. Net returns from crop production with and without soil and water conservation (SWC) are compared based on stochastic dominance (SD) criteria. A non-parametric first order SD and normalized second order are used for data analysis. Analysis is based on the Soil Conservation Research Program (SCRP) database for the Hunde-Lafto research unit. The results of the analysis suggest that adopting a conservation strategy results in higher grain yield and net return than in not adopting. The normalized second order SD analysis results do not support the hypothesis that conservation strategy is unambiguously better than a noconservation strategy in reducing variability in yield and net return to farmers. However, conservation strategy has shown second order dominance at lower levels of yield and income that often correspond to unfavorable rainfall conditions. This makes it a preferred strategy to cope with the most prevalent risk factor of moisture shortage. Therefore, appropriate policies to help and encourage farmers to adopt SWC structures will contribute to improving the welfare of subsistence farm households in the study area and in other similar settings in the country. Designing and implementing SWC techniques that may result in unambiguous second order SD dominance will further improve the desirability and adoption of conservation measures.     

Optimal algorithms and lower partial moment: ex post results

Portofolio management in the finance literature has typically used optimization algorithms to determine security allocations within a portfolio in order to obtain the best trade-off between risk and return. These algorithms, despite some improvements, are restrictive in terms of an investor's risk aversion (utility function). Since individual investors have different levels of risk aversion, this paper proposes two portfolio-optimization algorithms that can be tailored to the specific level of risk aversion of the individual investor and performs ex postevaluation tests of the algorithm performance.     

The role of corruption and risk aversion in entrepreneurial intentions

The literature on entrepreneurship has suggested that an individual’s entrepreneurial intention depends on three types of factor: personal characteristics, the individual’s expertise and professional background, and external factors. Our study investigates how corruption, an external factor, and risk aversion, a personal characteristic, may simultaneously affect individuals’ entrepreneurial intentions. With data on 76 203 individuals in 53 countries, our estimation results indicate that risk aversion decreases the individual’s probability of having an entrepreneurial intention by 6.67 percentage points. In addition, an increase in 1 SD in the perceived level of corruption in a country decreases the individual’s probability of having an entrepreneurial intention by 0.96 percentage points.     

RISK AVERSION AND FIELD OF STUDY CHOICE: THE ROLE OF INDIVIDUAL ABILITY

Does the choice of field of study depend on individual risk aversion? The direction of the relationship between individual risk attitudes and type of university degree chosen is potentially ambiguous. On the one hand, risk averse individuals may prefer degree courses which allow high returns in the labour market; on the other hand, if these degrees expose students to a higher probability of dropping out, those who are more risk averse may be induced to choose less challenging fields. Using data from a sample of students enrolled at a middle‐sized Italian public university in 2009, we find that, controlling for a large number of individual characteristics, more risk averse students are more likely to choose any other field (Humanities, Engineering, and Sciences) rather than Social Sciences. We interpret this result bearing in mind that some of these fields, such as Humanities, involve a reduction in the risk of dropping out, while others (such as Engineering and Sciences) involve a lower risk in the labour market. It also emerges that the effect of risk aversion on degree choice is related to student ability. Risk averse students characterized by high abilities tend to prefer Engineering, while the propensity of risk averse students to enrol in Humanities decreases when ability increases, suggesting that the attention paid to labour market risks and drop‐out risk varies according to student skills.     

Impacts of climate change on food utilization in Nepal

Understanding how long-term climate patterns affect food security outcomes is crucial for crafting food policy in developing countries. In the case of Nepal, existing studies have focused overwhelmingly on food production and supply, but relatively little attention has been paid to understanding how extreme climate trends affect food utilization. This study fills that gap in the literature by examining the effects of temperature and rainfall trends from 1976 to 2005 on individual daily caloric intake and food diversity in Nepal. We use the copula method to jointly estimate the two potentially correlated food utilization outcomes. We find that climate risk negatively affects both outcomes. One percent increase (0.01 points) in climate risk index (index ranges from 0 to 1) leads to a decrease in weighted caloric intake by 8.1 calories (equivalent to 1.1% of average weighted caloric intake of 726 calories) and food diversity by 0.114 points (a reduction of 0.43% reduction of the mean score). We also find that factors such as ecological belts and social capital are strongly correlated with food security. Based on our findings, we recommend policies that attract private and public investments towards improving farmers' access to financial institutions, transportation networks, and risk-mitigation products and programs.     

Monotone risk aversion

Summary. This paper defines decreasing absolute risk aversion in purely behavioral terms without any assumption of differentiability and shows that a strictly increasing and risk averse utility function with decreasing absolute risk aversion is necessarily differentiable with an absolutely continuous derivative. A risk averse utility function has decreasing absolute risk aversion if and only if it has a decreasing absolute risk aversion density, and if and only if the cumulative absolute risk aversion function is increasing and concave. This leads to a characterization of all such utility functions. Analogues of these results also hold for increasing absolute and for increasing and decreasing relative risk aversion.Received: 31 January 2003, Revised: 15 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D81.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author in his individual capacity and should not in any way be attributed to Morgan Stanley or to Lars Tyge Nielsen as a representative, officer, or employee of Morgan Stanley.     

Attitudes to risk and attitudes to uncertainty: experimental evidence

In a series of experiments the interactions among individual attitudes towards risk and uncertainty, the sign of the outcome domain, and the way uncertainty is represented are tested. This is done in a unified framework, eliciting individual values by means of a second price auction. Results confirm the presence of the well-known fourfold pattern of risk attitude (risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses at high probability, and risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses at low probability) and show that this pattern can also be extended to uncertainty. In the valuation of losses the modal pattern is decreasing risk and uncertainty aversion as the probability of loss increases, while increasing risk and uncertainty aversion is observed for gains. Moreover, it is found that the size of reaction to uncertainty does not depend on the outcome domain, and that it persists in the face of an incentive-compatible mechanism to elicit preferences.     

基于过度自信的企业发展低碳经济激励机制研究

在考虑企业过度自信的情况下,建立了企业发展低碳经济的激励机制模型并进行了系统研究。结果表明:政府的最优激励补贴与企业的风险规避度、外界不确定因素方差、努力成本系数负相关,与企业节能减排产出系数和过度自信水平正相关;当企业的过度自信水平满足一定约束条件时,政府的激励补贴强度以及期望环境收益都要大于企业完全理性时的情形;当企业的过度自信水平超过一定约束条件时,政府的最优激励补贴以及期望环境收益小于0;企业过度自信的容忍度与企业风险规避系数以及外界不确定因素正相关。     

Auctioning Risky Conservation Contracts

Conservation auctions have the potential to increase the efficiency of payments to farmers to adopt conservation-friendly management practices by fostering competition among them. The literature considers bidders that have complete information about the costs of adoption and optimal bidding behavior reflects this information advantage. Farmers seek information rents and bids decrease when risk aversion increases because farmers are more averse to losing the auction. We contribute to the literature by allowing for cost risk. Our paper shows that farmers must balance the risk of losing the auction (thus foregoing information rent) with the risk of submitting a bid that is not high enough to pay the costs of adopting conservation practices (thus incurring losses). We design an experiment to trade off these two risks and examine how risk aversion affects bidding behavior when participants face different sources and levels of risk. Our experiment contributes to a small literature on experimental auctions with risky product valuations. We find that participants decrease their bids as risk aversion increases, even in auctions with cost risk, suggesting that the risk of losing the auction dominates. These findings uncover new challenges for the practical implementation of conservation auctions as an efficient policy instrument.     

Risk Aversion and Trade‐Union Membership*

If trade unions provide only their members with insurance against income variations, as a private good, this insurance will provide a stronger incentive for more risk‐averse employees to become union members. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) and various direct measures of individual risk attitudes, we find robust evidence of a positive relationship between risk aversion and the likelihood of union membership for full‐time employees. This association is particularly strong for males and in West Germany.     

Estimation of relative risk aversion across time

This article examines relative risk aversion in the framework of a three-moment asset pricing model that accounts for skewness. Accounting for skewness in calculating risk aversion gives a more accurate series of estimates of risk aversion and helps to reconcile the wide disparity in risk coefficients found in past literature. Risk aversion coefficients are calculated from 1926 to 2014 using stock market returns. This procedure results in a time series of data that can be related to other variables such as real interest rates and changes in demand for various asset classes.     

Collective Risk Control and Group Security: The Unexpected Consequences of Differential Risk Aversion

We provide an analysis of odds‐improving self‐protection for when it yields collective benefits to groups, such as alliances of nations, for whom risks of loss are public bads and prevention of loss is a public good. Our analysis of common risk reduction shows how diminishing returns in risk improvement can be folded into income effects. These income effects then imply that whether protection is inferior or normal depends on the risk aversion characteristics of underlying utility functions, and on the interaction between these, the level of risk, and marginal effectiveness of risk abatement. We demonstrate how public good inferiority is highly likely when the good is “group risk reduction.” In fact, we discover a natural or endogenous limit on the size of a group and of the amount of risk controlling outlay it will provide under Nash behavior. We call this limit an “Inferior Goods Barrier” to voluntary risk reduction. For the paradigm case of declining risk aversion, increases in group size(wealth) will cause provision of more safety to change from a normal to an inferior good thereby creating such a barrier.     

INEQUALITY COMPARISONS IN A MULTI‐PERIOD FRAMEWORK: THE ROLE OF ALTERNATIVE WELFARE METRICS

This paper considers the use of alternative welfare metrics in evaluations of income inequality in a multi‐period context. Using Norwegian longitudinal income data, it is found, as in many studies, that inequality is lower when each individual's annual average income is used as welfare metric, compared with the use of a single‐period accounting framework. However, this result does not necessarily hold when aversion to income fluctuations is introduced. Furthermore, when actual incomes are replaced by expected incomes (conditional on an initial period), using a model of income dynamics, higher values of inequality over longer periods are typically found, although comparisons depend on inequality and variability aversion parameters. The results are strongly influenced by the observed high degree of systematic regression toward the (geometric) mean, combined with a large extent of individual unexpected effects.     

生态公益林自然灾害风险管理研究

本文通过对生态公益林自然灾害及其动力学机制的分析，认为其风险管理需要接受一定的风险水平，管理目标是边际总成本最低。生态公益林自然灾害风险管理是对风险的综合管理，并从有效的风险回避机制、多途径的风险转移机制和减灾能力建设三方面进行了探讨。     

Does education affect risk aversion? Evidence from the British education reform

Individual risk attitudes are frequently used to predict decisions regarding education. However, using risk attitudes as a control variable for decisions about education has been criticized because of the potential for reverse causality. Causality between risk aversion and education is unclear, and disentangling the different directions it may run is difficult. In this study, we make the first attempt to investigate the causal effects of education on risk aversion by examining the British education reform of 1972, which increased the duration of compulsory schooling from age 15 to age 16. Using regression discontinuity design, we find that this additional year of schooling increases the level of risk aversion, which is contrary to previous findings in the literature, and we also find that this result is particularly strong for individuals with less education. This positive causal effect of education on risk aversion might alleviate concerns regarding the endogeneity/reverse causality issue when using risk aversion as an explanatory variable for decisions about education; the sign would remain credible because the coefficients are underestimated.     

To educate or not to educate: Impact of public policies in developing countries

It is well-known in the empirical literature that present-oriented individuals are less likely to go to college as compared to forward looking individuals. There is compelling evidence of a high percentage of dropouts from high schools in poor countries. The endogenous sorting of homogeneous workers into skilled and unskilled types might be the outcome of exposure to income risk and an individual's aversion to risk. We obtain the critical risk aversion associated with income levels above which no individual chooses education. Broad-based economic policies may have perverse impact on educational attainments of individuals. We argue that such an analysis has been largely neglected in related studies. This outcome may also be undesirable from the perspective of a social planner. To address this, we suggest a sector-specific tax-subsidy scheme as a corrective instrument of public policy.     

Fairness and inequality tolerance: Evidence from the Life in Transition Survey

This paper examines the link between inequality and individual well-being using household survey data from 27 transition economies, where income inequality increased considerably since 1989. A test of inequality aversion in individual preferences that draws on the Fehr and Schmidt (1999) specification of inequality aversion is proposed, and the difficulties of implementing it in a non-experimental setting are discussed. Estimates based on this model confirm aversion to inequality among individuals both in the pooled sample and separately among the EU and non-EU countries. The Gini index, on the other hand, is unable to capture this negative effect of inequality on well-being. Notably, inequality aversion is not intrinsic. Rather, it appears to be tied to a concern with the fairness of the institutions underlying the distribution of fortunes in society. The evidence is suggestive of inequality of opportunity driving attitudes toward overall inequality.