Identification of Lead Users for Consumer Products via Virtual Stock Markets*

Newly launched products in the consumer goods and services markets show high failure rates. To reduce the failure rates, companies can integrate innovative and knowledgeable customers, the so‐called lead users, into the new product development process. However, the detection of such lead users is difficult, especially in consumer product markets with very large customer bases. A new and potentially valuable approach toward the identification of lead users involves the use of virtual stock markets, which have been proposed and applied for political and business forecasting but not for the identification of experts such as lead users. The basic concept of virtual stock markets is bringing a group of participants together via the Internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks. These stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations, and their value depends on the realization of these market situations. In this process, a virtual stock market elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments. Virtual stock markets might also serve as a feasible instrument to filter out lead users, primarily for the following two reasons. First, a self‐selection effect might occur because sophisticated consumers with a higher involvement in the product of interest decide to participate in virtual stock markets. Second, a performance effect is likely to arise because well‐performing participants in virtual stock markets show a better understanding of the market than their (already self‐selected) fellow participants. So far, only limited information exists about these two effects and their relation to lead user characteristics. The goal of this paper is to analyze the feasibility of virtual stock markets for the identification of lead users. The results of this empirical study show that virtual stock markets can be an effective instrument to identify lead users in consumer products markets. Furthermore, the results show that not all lead users perform well in virtual stock markets. Hence, virtual stock markets allow identifying lead users with superior abilities to forecast market success.     

The Impact of the Corporate Mind‐set on New Product Launch Strategy and Market Performance

In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the link between new product launch strategy and market performance. So far, new product launch research has focused on this performance relationship without giving much attention to background factors that can facilitate or inhibit successful launch strategies. However, investigating such antecedents that set the framework in which different strategic launch decisions enable or prevent the market performance of new products is useful for enhancing the current state of knowledge. Drawing on the concept of a firm's orientation, the present study discusses the influence of the corporate mind‐set on new product launch strategy and market performance. It is hypothesized that the capability to successfully launch new products is based on the interplay between a firm's mind‐set (i.e., an analytical, risk‐taking, and aggressive posture) and its strategic launch decisions on setting launch objectives, selecting target markets, and positioning the new product. A research model with mediating effects is proposed, where the corporate mind‐set determines the launch strategy decisions, which in turn impact market performance. The model is tested with data on 113 industrial new products launched in business‐to‐business markets in Germany using a multiple informant approach. The results support the mediated model as the dimensions of the corporate mind‐set have a significant impact on most strategic launch decisions, which in turn significantly contribute to market performance. It is found that while an analytical posture relates to all three strategic launch decisions, risk taking and an aggressive posture have a significant impact on two, respectively one, launch strategy elements. These findings confirm the importance of investigating antecedents for a successful new product launch, as the corporate mind‐set serves as a background resource that sets the framework for successful new product launch decisions. In the final section implications for research and managerial practice as well as limitations of this research are provided.     

Equilibrium Real Options Exercise Strategies with Multiple Players: The Case of Real Estate Markets

This article derives a closed-form solution for an equilibrium real options exercise model with stochastic revenues and costs for monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly and competitive markets. Our model also allows one option holder to have a greater production capacity than others. Under a monopolistic environment we find that the optimal option exercise strategy in real estate markets is dramatically opposite to that in a financial (warrant) market, indicating the importance of paying attention to the institutional details of the underlying market when analyzing option exercise strategies. Our model can be generalized to the pricing of convertible securities and capital investment decisions involving both stochastic revenues and costs under different types of market structures.     

New Product Development 2.0: Preference Markets—How Scalable Securities Markets Identify Winning Product Concepts and Attributes*

Preference markets address the need for scalable, fast, and engaging market research in new product development. The Web 2.0 paradigm, in which users contribute numerous ideas that may lead to new products, requires new methods of screening those ideas for their marketability, and preference markets offer just such a mechanism. For faster new product development decisions, a flexible prioritization methodology is implemented for product features and concepts, one that scales up in the number of testable alternatives, limited only by the number of participants. New product preferences for concepts, attributes, and attribute levels are measured by trading stocks whose prices are based upon share of choice of new products and features. A conceptual model of scalable preference markets is developed and tested experimentally. Benefits of the methodology are found to include speed (less than one hour per trading experiment), scalability (question capacity grows linearly in the number of traders), flexibility (features and concepts can be tested simultaneously), and respondent enthusiasm for the method.     

COMPETING PAYMENT SCHEMES*

This paper presents a model of competing payment schemes. Unlike previous work on generic two‐sided markets, the model allows for the fact that in a payment system, users on one side of the market (merchants) compete to attract users on the other side (consumers, who may use cards for purchases). It analyzes how competition between card associations and between merchants affects the choice of interchange fees, and thus the structure of fees charged to cardholders and merchants. Implications for other two‐sided markets are discussed.     

Defining market boundaries

This study shows how spatial information about product supply and demand can be used to determine the geographic extent of markets. It demonstrates that markets thus defined allow finer-grained measurement of competitive conditions than is possible using conventional approaches. Two procedures are developed and contrasted: one, called a natural market approach, is drawn from the Industrial Organization economics literature; the second, called an enactment approach, is associated with the open systems perspective on organizations. Applied to a set of hospitals in the San Francisco Bay area, geographic market boundaries established in these ways are shown to lead to finely defined markets, and to reveal strong variation in competitive conditions across the area—variation not detectable if conventional approaches to market definition are used. It is shown that these approaches have applications beyond geographic market definition, and can also be applied to define markets in term of product or service types.     

The character of demand in mature organic food markets: Great Britain and Denmark compared

We investigate the organic food market in two selected European countries, Great Britain and Denmark, identifying main differences and similarities. We focus particularly on consumer perceptions and priorities, labelling schemes, and sales channels as a basis for assessing market stability and prospects for future growth. We employ a unique set of household panel data that includes information on stated values and concerns as well as registered purchasing behaviour. Most organic food on both markets is produced and processed by large-scale industrialised units and distributed through mainstream sales channels, consumer confidence being sustained at present by organic labelling schemes that appear to function well. However, a parallel market, based on the supply of goods through various direct sales channels to heavy users, prevails. We find that organic food purchase decisions are primarily motivated by ‘private good’ attributes such as freshness, taste and health benefits, attributes that may be perceived as being compatible with modern production and sales structure. Mature markets for organic foods nevertheless appear to be vulnerable to consumer dissatisfaction, particularly among heavy users of organic food products.     

Understanding and Managing International Product Launch: A Comparison between Developed and Emerging Markets

With the developed market becoming increasingly saturated, companies have turned to the rapidly growing emerging market. To compete effectively in the global marketplace, firms need to develop global market competences, such as effective product launch. Although considerable efforts have been devoted to identifying principles of effective new product launch, most of the literature focuses on a single country (i.e., the domestic market) and provides little direct cross‐national comparison. The objective of this study is to provide a better understanding of the patterns of effective product launch in the developed and emerging markets. Drawing from the contingency perceptive, the authors propose a conceptual model that emphasizes the central role of tactical launch decisions and the need to cope with the internal and external constraints for maximum new product performance. The research model is tested on 284 new products launched in the United States and 97 in Taiwan. Although prior literature suggested certain elements of global product launch may be standardized for purposes of efficiencies, the empirical data from this study suggests that global launch requires some degree of customization. The insights of the findings reveal that while some tactical launch decisions are effective for both emerging and mature markets, some are detrimental to each other. For example, customer education preannouncement and promotion discount pricing strategy enhance new product performance and preemption preannouncement strategy upset consumers for both the Taiwan and U.S. market. However, there are some cross‐national differences. Emotional advertising strategy is generally appreciated in the U.S. market but not in the Taiwan market. For management practice, the findings suggest the distinct patterns of effective product launch for the emerging and mature market using the United States and Taiwan as examples.     

Strategic Complementarities in Bank Branching Decisions*

I study how complementarities between rival banks’ branching decisions impacts banking deregulation. I use an instrumental variables approach to separately identify a bank’s strategic response to rivals’ branching decisions from common market factors. The results indicate that some bank types are more likely to open additional branches if their rivals do. This has important implications for expansion and merger policies. These are explored using a model of consumer demand for bank services and bank branch network choices. I find that strategic complementarities in branching decisions augment the effects of a merger or expansion, leading many banking markets to become over-branched.     

Standard–setting processes: evidence from two case studies

In many hi–tech sectors one of the most important dimensions of competition is standardisation. This is particularly true in modular markets (i.e. markets characterised by the existence of modular architectures) and in network markets (i.e. markets where users would like to buy products compatible with those bought by others). Different processes may lead to the standard–setting. Sometimes there are fierce standardisation wars whereas in other cases competitors are able to agree on a common standard before the introduction of the technology on the market. In this paper we endeavour to provide an interpretative framework of the standardisation process and validate such a framework through an in–depth analysis of two case studies in a typical network market (the multimedia sector): the case of the Modem 56k and the case of the Information Appliances–Enhanced TV.
The two case studies offer some evidence of the standardisation process and of the growing importance of super–partes organisations (Standard Development Organisations) in the mediation process between different interests and technologies to impose a common standard on the market.     

Segmentation and positioning in a basic industry

Faced with a shrinking market and increased demand, many firms in basic industries are turning to the marketing concept as a strategy to enable them to be survivors in their industries. This research illustrates a framework that will help firms identify the major benefits industrial buyers are seeking, segment the market on the basis of the benefits sought, and estimate the position of their companies. This data enables the firms to select their target markets and develop a plan to position their firms to best serve the chosen target markets.     

Industrial Pricing Strategies in Singapore and the U.S.: Same or Different?

It is generally believed that business-to-business marketing strategies are more uniform worldwide than those in consumer markets, because the buying firms focus more on issues such as product performance and profits. If this is so, a strategy model validated in one industrial market should apply reasonably well in another. This study compares pricing strategies of industrial firms in two market economies, the U.S. and Singapore. A pricing strategy model validated in the U.S. was tested in Singapore to determine whether internal and external conditions incorporated in the model could adequately explain differences in strategy choices between the markets.     

Mobile voice diffusion and service competition: A system dynamic analysis of regulatory policy

Dynamic behavior in mobile telecommunications markets is often the result of interactions between market actors. As the structure and dynamic complexity of such interactions tend to be difficult to identify, it is challenging for regulators to anticipate the effects of their policy decisions. This article uses system dynamics to evaluate the effect of technology harmonization and mobile number portability policies on mobile voice diffusion and service competition. This is realized by first modeling the endogenous feedback structure resulting in dynamic behavior in the mobile telecommunications market and then by configuring the model for retrospective simulations of the Finnish market. Based on the retrospective simulations, the effect of technology harmonization and mobile number portability policy decisions is analyzed and the usefulness of system dynamics is demonstrated.     

Launch Decisions and New Product Success: An Empirical Comparison of Consumer and Industrial Products

Many articles have investigated new product development success and failure. However, most of them have used the vantage point of characteristics of the product and development process in this research. In this article we extend this extensive stream of research, looking at factors affecting success; however, we look at the product in the context of the launch support program. We empirically answer the question of whether successful launch decisions differ for consumer and industrial products and identify how they differ. From data collected on over 1,000 product introductions, we first contrast consumer product launches with industrial product launches to identify key differences and similarities in launch decisions between market types. For consumer products, strategic launch decisions appear more defensive in nature, as they focus on defending current market positions. Industrial product strategic launch decisions seem more offensive, using technology and innovation to push the firm to operate outside their current realm of operations and move into new markets. The tactical marketing mix launch decisions (product, place, promotion and price) also differ markedly across the products launched for the two market types. Successful products were contrasted with failed products to identify those launch decisions that discriminate between both outcomes. Here the differences are more of degree rather than principle. Some launch decisions were associated with success for consumer and industrial products alike. Launch successes are more likely to be broader assortments of more innovative product improvements that are advertised with print advertising, independent of market. Other launch decisions uniquely related to success per product type, especially at the marketing mix level (pricing, distribution, and promotion in particular). The launch decisions most frequently made by firms are not well aligned with factors associated with higher success. Additionally, comparing the decisions associated with success to the recommendations for launches from the normative literature suggests that a number of conventional heuristics about how to launch products of each type will actually lead to failure rather than success.     

Entry Strategies and Market Performance Causal Modeling of a Business Simulation

A key decision faced by marketing managers is the development of entry strategies for new markets. In addition to selecting which product market to enter, the manager must make decisions about the entry strategy itself. The entry strategy, whether managed actively or passively, affects the entrant's performance. In this article, Donna Green and Adrian Ryans discuss the three major components of an entry strategy: the timing of entry, the magnitude and areas of investment and the basis for competitive emphasis. They report that very little empirical research has focused on relationships between entry strategy and eventual product performance.     

Big losses in ecosystem niches: how core firm decisions drive complementary product shakeouts

This study examines shakeouts in the context of business ecosystems. Market turbulence generated by core firm decisions in competing differentiated ecosystems can generate financial losses and exit for complementary niche market firms. I develop hypotheses predicting which niche markets will suffer larger losses and be more susceptible to shakeouts, and how core firm decisions will drive complementor performance and survival. I then apply these hypotheses to brand‐based differentiated ecosystems in the automotive industry, where networks of suppliers, customers, and complementors surround car manufacturers. More specifically, I study the complementary niche market of automotive leasing, where manufacturers sway leasing markets through product change, entry, and subsidization. To test the hypotheses, I use a proprietary dataset of 200,000 individual car leases between 1997–2002 to identify how manufacturer product design and niche market entry drive complementor losses and exit. These data allow a unique opportunity to understand how the strategic choices of core firms can have substantial and often devastating effects on niche markets in their ecosystem. Further, the results suggest how the dynamic capabilities to adapt to core firm behavior might improve performance for certain niche market complementors. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

COST,VALUE AND FOREIGN MARKET ENTRY MODE: THE TRANSACTION AND THE FIRM

This paper compares and contrasts the mode of foreign market entry decision from the transaction cost/internalization and organizational capability perspectives. Each of these perspectives operates at a different level of analysis, respectively the transaction and the firm, and consequently differs in the primary arena of attention, namely transaction characteristics and the capabilities of firms. In making the comparison, a key distinction is made between the cost and the value aspects in the management of know-how, based on which issues pertaining to the transfer of knowledge within and across firm boundaries and the exploitation and enhancement of competitive advantage are closely examined. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the implications of a shift in frame from cost to value in the analysis of decisions related to firm boundaries. Entry into foreign markets is used primarily as a vehicle for the accomplishment of this purpose. The paper shows how the value-based framework of the organizational capability perspective radically and fundamentally shifts the approach towards the governance of firm boundaries and argues that, even though TC/internalization theory raises some valid concerns, the organizational capability framework may be more in tune with today’s business context. Some of the assumptions of the TC/internalization perspective, both direct—–opportunism, exploitation of existing advantage—and indirect—preservation of the value of know-how across locational contexts, asymmetry between bounded rationality for transaction and production purposes—are critically examined and questioned. Implications of a shift from a cost to a value-based framework are discussed and the need for a shift in research focus is emphasized. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Product price and performance level in one market or two separated markets under various cost structures and functions

Market characteristics, including intrinsic demand and customer sensitivity on price and product performance level, are distinct at different markets. Comparisons of various product development strategies in one market or two geographically separated markets are conducted for three classes of products: development intensive products (DIPs) with constant unit cost, marginal cost-intensive products (MIPs) with constant fixed cost, and marginal and development intensive products (MDIPs) with non-constant unit cost and fixed cost. Results show that larger demand size, less customer sensitivity on price and/or more sensitivity on performance level lead to more profit, a higher sale price and a not-lower product performance. The customer reservation or the saturation performance level should be generally adopted though the optimal performance level does exist occasionally. Unit cost and/or fixed cost must increase in performance at an increasing rate for the existence of one optimal performance level. Due to the impact of demand size, one high-end (low-end) MDIP or DIP could be introduced into one low-end (high-end) market at a different price if the demand size is significantly large in the low-end market. For DIPs, offering one niche high-end product is not worse than offering the low-end product into two markets. For MIPs with negligible fixed cost, the product line strategy is not worse than the standard product development strategy. Additionally, the product cost reduction approach adopted in one product line has significant effects on the best product development strategy and sequence.     

Industrial sales people as market actors

We develop the concept of boundaries in the context of sales personnel and their counterparts encountering and negotiating these while they undertake work to shape markets and build relationships. Drawing on a case study from production chemistry, we show that market shaping implies a mutual development of relationships, goods and services exchanged, and boundaries. In particular, we show that while relationships can submerge and obscure parts or dimensions of boundaries to other market actors, normal business activities such as testing new products and adapting products to changes in environmental legislation make visible some material dimensions of the exchange object, which can attract attention from other sellers. Visibility finds an expression as those market objects are exchanged, such that objects can be devices by which other actors join in and position themselves and their objects within markets.     

Strategic market analysis and definition: An integrated approach

Two distinct approaches to market analysis and definition have evolved. Those approaches which adopt a top-down persepective, tend to specify markets in terms of competitive capabilities and resource transferability. The alternative bottom-up perspective emphasizes customer requirements or usage patterns when defining markets. An integrated approach begins with a common model of the principal dimensions of a market. The second element is the recognition that different market definitions are needed for different strategic purposes. Next, the strategic planning framework which links business units and product-market units should be compatible with these purposes and reflect a strategically relevant balance of cost and demand factors. A procedure for forming business units from groups of product-markets is shown to be effective for achieving this balance.