Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist’s toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.     

Are Students Really Less Ethical Than Business Practitioners?

Past research provides evidence of lower ethical standards amongst the student population when compared to business practitioners, using business-based survey instruments. This study examines the adequacy of this conventional research tool by assessing the influence of scenario context (university or business setting) on ethical intentions using data from 243 commerce tertiary students.Students tended to respond more ethically to issues set in a university context than to equivalent issues in a business setting. The tolerance level for unethical behaviour in both contexts was also found to decline with full-time work experience and age. However, full-time work experience appears to be the major variable influencing ethical ratings set in a business context, whereas age was found to predict the ethical judgements of students in the university scenarios. The overall pattern of responses indicates that ethical standards vary according to scenario context.The study illustrates the importance of considering respondents' exposure to the settings concerned when conducting ethical studies using scenario-based instruments. Respondents should have adequate knowledge and exposure to the type of setting they are asked to evaluate. Results of this study argue for caution in the interpretation of past findings involving student samples responding to ethical issues in business settings.     

Kola real's low‐cost international expansion strategy

This case provides an interesting and relevant scenario of a family‐owned firm entering the low end of the cola market in Peru and expanding into other Latin American countries. For a family business owner, or for an entrepreneur looking for business pathways in Latin America, this look into Ajegroup's strategic planning to take advantage of expansion opportunities in the region can serve as either a cautionary tale, or an avenue toward future growth. The case is accompanied by comments from practitioner experts. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Macroeconomic fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean: The role of climatic and external shocks

This article develops country-specific vector autoregressive (VAR) models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output – but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.     

Managing threats in the global era: The impact and response to SARS

In early 2003, the SARS virus brought disruption of public and business activities in many areas of the world, particularly Asia. As a result of its impact, SARS quickly established itself as a new kind of global uncertainty and posed challenges for traditional methods of risk management. This article examines the impact that SARS has had through means of a case study and builds on this to provide recommendations for how uncertainty may be managed in an increasingly globalized world. Reconsideration of strategic and risk‐management approaches have become necessary. Supply‐chain management and corporate strategy require a fundamental rethink to balance the pursuit of efficiency with increased responsiveness and flexibility. Unpredictability and turbulence in the international business environment suggest that traditional planning approaches that assume linear growth may give way to more scenario‐based planning. This will encourage firms to contemplate a variety of possible futures and better prepare them for unanticipated events. Similarly, contingent‐based continuity plans help businesses continue running even during a crisis. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sins of the Father’s Firm: Exploring Responses to Inherited Ethical Dilemmas in Family Business

How do individuals respond when they perceive that their family business has been built upon unethical business conduct? Drawing on an expanded version of Hirschman’s typology of generic responses to declining situations (Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1970), which includes responses of Exit, Voice, Loyalty, and Neglect, we offer a model that predicts probability of intended response behavior as a function of normative obligation (i.e., what one perceives ought to be done), managerial discretion (i.e., what one perceives can be done), and successor commitment to the firm. The model is tested on 124 business school students exposed to a scenario depicting an inherited ethical dilemma occurring in a family business from Arthur Miller’s play All My Sons, and shows support for elements of the proposed framework. Most notable is a significant negative relationship between normative firm-directed commitment and the response of Neglect.     

Value Creation in the Mobile Market

In recent years competitive pressure in mobile markets has increased remarkably. New business models and thus new actors have entered the market. This contribution analyzes the reconfiguration of value structures and strategies in mobile markets. For this purpose, mobile network operators’ service portfolio is analyzed on the basis of a worldwide survey, and the relevant current and future value creation activities are identified with consideration of additional actors and influence factors. On that basis, roles are developed, linked with regard to value flows and combined to a reference model for the mobile market value net. Subsequently, scenario planning is used to develop a set of criteria for the construction of corresponding future scenarios and the application of the reference model is demonstrated with such a scenario.     

Scenarios for future service encounters

This article develops research-based scenarios of future service encounters. Views from senior customer service directors in 14 major service companies regarding future service encounters and future roles and capabilities of customer service professionals were gathered. This was considered in the light of secondary data regarding technology and socio-economic projections. Short scenarios of future service encounters around key dimensions of technology, time and money are presented. Ways in which scenario planning may be used to aid planning and proactive business strategy in the service sector are discussed.     

Uncovering the value of planning in new venture creation: A process and contingency perspective

Researchers are engaged in a major debate on the value of business planning in new venture creation. This study suggests a potential resolution by applying a process and contingency perspective. The results indicate that planning is beneficial, yet planning processes need to be governed by different planning regimes depending on the type of founding environment. In highly dynamic environments, entrepreneurs will get most value from planning when they focus on select planning activities, and speed up the planning task. In less dynamic environments, they are better of pursuing a munificent approach to planning. The analysis thus reveals a major component of theorization on business planning that has been neglected in previous discussions. As for entrepreneurship teaching and practice, the findings suggest the importance of an adaptive, “toolkit” approach to business planning. Hypotheses were developed based on information-processing and decision-making theory and were tested with an ordered probit analysis on a sample of 100 start-ups backed by venture capital.     

Modeling Newspaper Advertising

Mathematical modeling is recognized as a powerful tool for planning business operations. The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical model for simulating a newspaper financial system. The model was developed from actual newspaper industry data and includes the effects of advertising and circulation. The use of the model to predict advertising linage as a function of population, income and advertising rate is included in the discussion.     

Surviving organizational disasters

Man-made and natural disasters are becoming increasingly common in today's world. Among other entities, companies should be concerned because these impact organizational survival, disrupting the lives and functioning of employees, suppliers, customers, and organizational infrastructure. If the present trend continues, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is on track to declare 30% more disasters in 2010 than in 2009. Organizational disasters are crises in the extreme. While the crisis management literature provides a useful foundation for planning for internal organizational threats, it does not adequately address larger external threats brought about by disasters. With this gap in mind, we herein present a framework for planning for man-made or natural disasters: continuity of operations planning (COOP). Continuity of operations planning is a tool that aids organizations in staying in business under extreme circumstances. Although continuity of operations planning is not an entirely new practice, many small and medium-sized firms are reluctant to engage in this type of planning. To highlight the value of the process, this article provides examples of organizational disasters, alongside a simplified method for developing an effective continuity of operations plan.     

Should entrepreneurs plan or just storm the castle? A meta-analysis on contextual factors impacting the business planning–performance relationship in small firms

Entrepreneurship research engages in an intense debate about the value of business planning. Prior empirical findings have been fragmented and contradictory. This study contributes insights to the business planning discussion by following an evidence-based research approach. We conduct a meta-analysis on the business planning–performance relationship and specifically focus on contextual factors moderating the relationship. Results indicate that planning is beneficial, yet contextual factors such as newness of the firms and the cultural environment of firms significantly impact the relationship. Based on this evidence, we propose a concomitant and dynamic approach that combines planning and learning.     

Strategic planning using service roadmaps

Although useful service planning tools exist, few focus on how to integrate service planning into business and technology planning from a longer perspective, which is essential for a firm to survive and grow in the current and future service environment. We suggest that technology roadmaps, initially developed as a long-term strategic planning tool in the manufacturing sector, can be a good solution for the service sector – and indeed are in use in the service sector under the label ‘service roadmaps'. To help more firms enjoy the benefits of the service roadmap concept, this research aims to develop a taxonomy of service roadmap forms. We investigate 93 service roadmaps and identify five dominant types. Then, we analyze the characteristics of each type to understand their current and possible future uses. Our research findings are expected to facilitate the wider use of service roadmaps as a complement to existing service planning tools.     

A game theory modeling approach for 3G operators

This paper presents the technoeconomic evaluation of a third generation rollout scenario followed by the identification of the market conditions for two operators in a simple game theory model. The considered scenarios reflect the point of view of both dominant operators and new entrants. Technoeconomic results are presented in terms of net present value (NPV), acting like the pay-off function in the proposed theoretical Game Theory model. The business case presented here was studied by using a tool, developed by European Projects IST-25172 TONIC/ECOSYS, a model developed by the EURESCOM P901 project and the Game Theory Tool named Gambit.     

INFORMATION GAMING IN DEMAND COLLABORATION AND SUPPLY CHAIN PERFORMANCE

Demand collaboration has recently been promoted by industry leaders as an important tool for supply chain management. Its greatest significance beyond the sharing of point‐of‐sale and forecast information stems from its potential to allow supply chain partners to extract private market information from each other for more effective planning and better supply chain performance. A simulation framework based on actual business processes is developed to investigate the underlying drivers of demand collaboration and the inherent risks and benefits of such collaboration.     

Marketing planning: Operationalising the market orientation strategy

Abstract

Despite strong empirical validation of the relationship between market orientation and business performance, the literature is inconclusive on the implementation of the strategy. This paper reviews the implementation of market orientation, and investigates the associations between market orientation and marketing planning and their associations with business performance. A survey of 216 Australian larger business organisations was conducted to find evidence of these relationships. The results highlight a close association between market orientation and marketing planning, with virtually the same level of association between them, and the business performance measures used. This evidence suggests that they arguably represent the same domain. The results suggest that marketing practitioners may use the marketing planning technique as an intangible productive resource to operationalise the market orientation strategy, and use it to design a specific style and magnitude of market orientation suitable for an organisation.     

Making the Shift: Moving from "Ethics Pays" to an Inter-Systems Model of Business

For several decades, business has operated according to the tenets of neoclassical economic theory, where the primary obligation of corporations is to maximize profit for shareholders. However, the larger social mandate for business has changed, represented by the rise of language such as "sustainable development", "corporate social responsibility" (CSR) and "stakeholder groups." Nevertheless, the theoretical shift implied by the use of such language has not occurred. Issues of sustainable development and CSR continue to be justified in the terms of neoclassical economic theory through the rationalization of "doing well by doing good".Within this economic paradigm, CSR cannot move beyond enlightened self-interest (acting in socially responsible ways in order to further one's own ends) because all behavior must be justified economically. This implies that corporate socially responsible behavior will simply cease when it becomes uneconomic, regardless of the impact on interrelated systems which in turn will re-impact the business realm.Faced with bitter realities arising from complex interactions among social, political, cultural, eco-nomic and natural environments, we may better comprehend and negotiate these problems by moving out of a neoclassical economic justification of the stakeholder model of the corporation to an inter-systems model, shifting from a narrow comprehension of a single economic independent system analyzed apart from its larger context to a fuller understanding of business as one of a number of interrelated systems.Operational differences between the old and new mandates are described, and two ways to practically shift towards the new mandate are identified as a modified version of scenario planning and the introduction of the voice of the critic.     

高层后备计划——家族企业内部CEO接班问题

家族企业在世界和中国经济中都扮演了重要角色,从succession planning(后备计划或管理继承人计划)的概念出发,界定了涉及的家族企业的范畴,对关乎其兴衰成败的最高领导人CEO的接班计划进行了考察,区分了两类不同的家族企业接班计划,并着重对第一种接班计划的动力学过程进行了描述,最后,对中国文化背景下家族企业接班计划的应用做了一些思考。     

Export Market Development: Planning and Relationship Processes of Entrepreneurs in Different Countries

This article makes an initial exploration of whether and to what extent different national values may affect the development of export markets through business to business relationships between entrepreneurs in different countries. It does this by specifically examining the trust between people and the nature and role of business planning in the export market development process. To do this, different modes of both planning and relationship development are first distinguished, based on two separate research traditions. Notions of national values developed in previous research are outlined and used to develop formal tabulated propositions regarding how national values might influence business planning and trust formation. The relevance and applicability in understanding different approaches to business development in different countries is then explored. The discussions of three matched case entrepreneurs from different countries are examined in terms of the propositions detailed by means of verbal protocol analysis. This exploratory study helps concrete propositions to be suggested why and how national values influence export market development processes through the development of theoretical typologies. Planning and relationship processes were both important but the relationships came first, in all three entrepreneurs. Different types of trusting relationships were sought and required by the individuals examined, however, that largely concurred with national values stereotypes. These, in turn, led to different approaches to the timing, role, and nature of export planning. It is hoped that the article contributes an understanding of how different national values might lead to different roles for planning and relationships in export market development.