自主创新与技术模仿:一个无规模效应的内生增长模型

通过将技术模仿引入到Jones(1995)模型,本文比较考察了自主创新与技术模仿这两类基本创新模式对长期经济增长的作用。模型的竞争性市场均衡求解结果表明,技术模仿不仅有利于提高平衡增长路径时本国的稳态增长率,而且引致更多的人力资本被配置到研发部门。经济系统动态转移的数值模拟分析进一步探讨了技术模仿、技术差距、自主研发效率,以及技术吸收能力对经济收敛速度的影响。     

经济增长的制度分析模型

新古典增长模型由于其外生技术进步假设，导致稳态增长率也是外生的，因此回避了长期经济增长的制度解释。技术内生增长模型使得稳态增长率内生，从而为长期经济增长的制度解释提供了基础。本文利用简单的AK增长模型讨论了将制度做为外生因素引入增长模型的可能。文中讨论两种典型情况：一是通过研究增长模型结构参数背后的制度因素，间接地确定制度对增长率的影响；二是通过将政府行为引入到增长模型中来体现制度因素对增长率的影响。虽然将制度视为外生因素的研究方法有着局限性，但是仍然可以丰富增长理论的结论。体现出制度因素对长期经济率的影响。     

粤港澳区域知识溢出与经济增长

研究目标:从理论和实证两方面研究异质的知识溢出如何产生经济空间收敛现象以及如何影响区域经济协调增长。研究方法:理论上,基于包含异质的知识吸收能力的Ertur-Koch空间增广Solow模型分析知识吸收能力对经济协调增长的影响。实证上,以粤港澳大湾区为研究对象,使用1995～2018年的实际人均GDP增长率和专利引用数据,采用贝叶斯层次空间Durbin模型和M-H Gibbs混合抽样算法估计空间收敛方程。研究发现:理论上,知识溢出导致经济空间收敛,提高知识吸收能力能提升经济增长潜力。知识吸收能力不均衡会扩大地区间经济差距,不利于区域协调增长。从其他地区获得的知识溢出越多,本地经济增长过程中获得的空间溢出收益越大。实证研究发现,粤港澳大湾区的经济增长存在空间收敛。各市在经济增长过程中获得的空间溢出收益存在很大的异质性,中心城市要强于边缘城市,珠三角城市整体上要强于港澳。研究创新:理论模型中加入了异质的知识吸收能力,突出了吸收能力的均衡性对于地区经济协调增长的重要性。在实证研究中采用变系数空间计量模型,从而能够识别知识溢出对经济空间收敛的影响。充分利用了地理信息和技术交流信息,构造复合空间权...     

消费率稳态、演进及中国经济持续均衡增长的现实选择——基于R-C-K模型的分析框架

本文在R-C-K模型的分析框架下构建稳态消费率决定模型,进而分析中国经济发展过程中的消费率演进及与经济增长关系.主要研究结论有:(1)均衡增长路径上的稳态消费率是最优消费率,由个人主观时间贴现率、相对风险厌恶系数、资本产出弹性、技术进步率、折旧率和劳动增长率等因素所决定;(2)随着工业化进程推进,稳态消费率呈现出先变小再变大的U型曲线演进趋势,实际经济生活中的消费率围绕稳态消费率上下波动;(3)1978年以来,中国经济增长绩效较好,消费率演进并无异常,符合经济发展工业化初中期阶段消费率演进的一般规律,但2001年后,消费率快速下降并大幅偏离稳态消费率,一定程度上降低了经济增长的内生性,进而影响到中国经济的持续均衡增长.根据经济发展的一般规律,提倡再度和适度工业化,通过优化产业结构鼓励发展现代服务业和完善社会保障制度、缩小收入差距等手段扩大消费需求对经济增长的贡献程度刻不容缓.     

山东省经济增长的计量经济分析

本文运用多线段回归模型对山东省1978—2007年居民消费、固定资产投资、净出口和经济增长进行研究。研究的结论是:居民消费、固定资产投资以及净出口的增长率与经济增长率存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。     

碳税制度下的稳态经济增长路径研究

文章试图在人力资本模型的基础上，引入碳税和CO2排放函数，研究碳税制度下的稳态经济增长路径与CO2排放量。通过改进后的内生增长模型计算得出碳税制度下的稳态经济增长率以及CO2排放量增长率与各参数之间的关系，并将经验参数值带入模型进行检验，得出的结果与理论模型分析一致：在碳税制度下，时间贴现率越小，资本产出弹性越小，人力资本的增长速度越快，物质商品对消费者效用的影响越小，越能提高稳态经济的增长速率，同时也能更加有力的遏制CO2排放量。     

知识产权保护对工资率水平及经济增长的影响:一个修正的技术扩散模型

本文首先采用寡头竞争下的古诺模型来描述跨国公司与本地企业的价格决策行为，导出了跨国公司与本地企业共同增长的技术扩散模型；然后，分析了知识产权保护对相对工资率及经济增长率的影响，并用近5年中国的经验数据进行验证。研究表明，加强知识产权保护将会降低中国的劳动工资率水平和经济增长率。本文的结论意味着中国政府应尽可能采用相对宽松的知识产权保护政策，以提高社会福利水平和长期的经济增长。     

电力产业链与宏观经济波动均衡关系研究

本文利用电力产业链20种产品增长率数据进行二项分布检验,建立与GDP增长率序列的差分VAR模型,实施协整检验。结果证实20种产品的波动具有一定系统性,产业链与宏观经济波动存在逆向长期均衡,它们分别对均衡偏离进行同进同退的短期调整。这反映了中国经济的传统增长方式面临现实约束——增长方式低效率本身,产业链大起大落源于均衡关系的波动和调整方式。目前,产业链高速增长趋势的转折在即。     

能源可持续利用、环境治理与内生经济增长

能源可持续利用、环境保护与我国经济可持续发展问题的研究已成为经济学界的一个重要课题。我们将能源和环境引入生产函数,构建了一个内生人力资本与技术进步模型,通过对可持续的最优增长路径的分析,全面考察能源可持续利用、环境治理与经济可持续增长的内在关系与作用机制,讨论了经济环境参数对稳态经济增长率的影响。     

能源可持续利用、环境治理与内生经济增长

能源可持续利用、环境保护与我国经济可持续发展问题的研究已成为经济学界的一个重要课题.我们将能源和环境引入生产函数,构建了一个内生人力资本与技术进步模型,通过对可持续的最优增长路径的分析,全面考察能源可持续利用、环境治理与经济可持续增长的内在关系与作用机制,讨论了经济环境参数对稳态经济增长率的影响.     

Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channeled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas–Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the induced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.     

进口贸易、吸收能力与国际研发技术溢出的实证分析

本文研究了以进口贸易为传导机制的国际技术溢出对我国全要素生产率的影响.结果表明,贸易伙伴国溢出的研发与我国全要素生产率之间存在着稳定的长期均衡关系,但是具体促进程度受到中国人力资本和贸易开放程度等吸收能力因素的制约.在此实证研究的基础上,本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

Intellectual Capital–Enhancing HR,Absorptive Capacity,and Innovation

This study investigates the role of intellectual capital (i.e., human, social, and organization capital)–enhancing human resource (HR) practices in the development of a firm's absorptive capacity, as well as the mediating role of absorptive capacity in its relationship to the firm's innovation performance. Results show that while human capital–enhancing HR (acquisition and developmental HR) is positively related to absorptive capacity, social capital–enhancing HR affects absorptive capacity through egalitarian HR practices. Organization capital–enhancing HR practices contribute to absorptive capacity through effective information systems. Finally, our findings confirm that the various intellectual capital–enhancing HR practices affect innovation performance through their impact on the firm's absorptive capacity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Technology capital: the price of admission to the growth club

We assess long-run patterns of global agricultural productivity growth between 1970 and 2005 and examine the relationship between investments in technology capital and productivity. To measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) we employ a Solow-type growth accounting method to decompose output growth into input and TFP growth. For technology capital we construct two indexes reflecting national capacities in agricultural research and education-extension for 87 developing countries. We then correlate technology capital levels with long-term growth rates in agricultural TFP. Our findings show that global agricultural TFP growth as a whole accelerated since 1980, although performance was very uneven across developing countries. TFP growth rates were significantly influenced by technology capital. Marginal improvements to research capacity, given a minimal level of extension and schooling existed, were associated with faster TFP growth. However, marginal increases in extension-schooling without commensurate improvements in research capacity did not improve productivity performance.     

Training,adverse selection and appropriate technology: Development and growth in a small open economy

Recent diffusion models cannot explain why the success of technology diffusion depends so critically on developing countries’ human capital levels. This paper examines three main issues. First, we endogenize both appropriate technologies and human capital formation. Second, we refine the human capital accumulation process by introducing uncertainty about worker quality and training efficiency. Finally, we allow for international diffusion of technology as a function of the host country’s endogenous ability to absorb technological spillovers. The resulting model is one of uneven growth where trade amplifies worker quality problems in laggard countries. In contrast, technology spillovers are shown to generate additional incentives to accumulate human capital in the laggard country, since this allows for faster adoption and diffusion of foreign technology in the future.     

The short and long-run impact of globalization if firms differ in factor input ratios

Empirical evidence has shown that exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters. Based on this evidence, I construct a two-factor general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity in factor intensities, monopolistic competition, scale economies and international trade. This setting can explain several empirical regularities on international trade, factor market competition, factor relocations and factor returns: (i) exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters, regardless of a country's relative factor endowments; (ii) finite supply of capital limits a country's export activities; (iii) trade liberalization increases the relative return to capital; (iv) new profit opportunities in export markets change the distribution of firms towards the more capital intensive ones. Finally, I extend the setting to endogenous capital accumulation and show that trade liberalization induces economic growth and, in the long-run, benefits all factors in real terms.     

Social capital,internationalization and absorptive capacity: The electronics and ICT cluster of the Basque Country

This article analyses the case of a successful young high technology cluster in an old industrialized European region, the electronics and information and communications technology cluster in the Basque Country (Spain). Based on the findings of this case study, we propose that social capital and internationalization play an important role in increasing the absorptive capacity of clusters (thus, the capacity of a cluster to absorb, diffuse and creatively exploit extra-cluster knowledge), and hence, in sustaining their growth and dynamism. Absorptive capacity depends on the capacity of firms to establish intra- and extra-cluster knowledge linkages. We put forward in this article the fact that social capital fosters intra-cluster knowledge linkages, and cluster's internationalization the extra-cluster knowledge ones. Therefore, social capital and internationalization are key elements to increase the absorptive capacity of a cluster and its growth. Given the accumulative, path- and place-dependent nature of social capital and knowledge creation and accumulation, we employed a largely qualitative and historical analysis, combining statistical and qualitative cluster data and interviews with key actors.     

Growth, debt and public infrastructure

This paper presents a closed economy model of endogenous growth driven by capital externalities arising from both private capital and public infrastructure. The model is calibrated to fit data for India, an approximately closed economy. Simulations suggest that fiscal policy certainly matters and the choice of the income taxation rate, the mix of government spending between infrastructure and public consumption goods, and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the long-run growth rate. Intertemporal aspects of fiscal policy are also important and the precommitment (time-inconsistent) and non-precommitment policies differ substantially.     

Sustained endogenous growth with decreasing returns and heterogeneous capital

The possibility of sustained long-run growth is typically associated with the presence of some endogenous `engine of growth'. It may allow the economy to grow without bound despite the use of some non-reproducible resources. Such situations can lead to dynamic models combining the features of sustainable growth and decreasing returns. One-sector models of this kind have recently attracted much attention in macroeconomics applications. Their approximate linearity for the purposes of long-run analysis has been noted. This paper is aimed at establishing the general fact: dynamic models (one- or multi-sector) which are characterized by sustained endogenous growth with non-increasing returns display the patterns of optimal growth asymptotically equivalent to those generated by models with linear technology. I consider a neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous capital, develop its linear counterpart, and prove their asymptotic equivalence in terms of long-run optimal growth rates and cross-sectoral profiles of consumption, real interest rates and relative prices. This result also implies the `non-substitution' theorem for the neoclassical dynamic model of sustained growth: optimal input profiles, relative prices, and interest rates are asymptotically independent of intertemporal preferences.     

Exploring the role of technology,tourism and financial development: an empirical study of Vietnam

Vietnam is one of the emerging and industrializing developing countries in East Asia that has experienced a growth in tourism, information and communications technology (ICT) and financial development over the last three decades largely supported by significant structural reforms to escalate its path towards modernization and industrialization by 2020. In this paper, we explore the short-run and long-run effects of tourism, ICT and financial development over the period 1980–2010. Further, we examine the causation between these contemporary drivers of growth. The results show tourism has a positive and statistically significant effect in the short-run whereas ICT and financial development have a momentous positive and significant effect in the long-run. The causality results show unidirectional causation from capital per worker, ICT and financial development to output per worker; from ICT and financial development to capital per worker; and from capital per worker to tourism. Further, we also note a bi-directional causation between tourism and output per worker indicating their mutually reinforcing effect in the economy.