论新红皮书中的风险分配

本文归纳了新红皮书中风险分配的四条原则：风险共担原则，最具控制力原则，损失和收益同时承担原则和诚意合作原则，讨论了新红皮书中六类风险在业主和承包商之间的具体分配情况。它们分别是：①合同中途终止的风险；②工程进度失控的风险；③工程费用失控的风险；④工程质量失控的风险；⑤人员伤亡的风险；⑥工程、货物或承包商文件遭受损失的风险。     

都市圈空间界定方法的应用研究——以成都都市圈为例

都市圈是区域经济和城市化发展到一定阶段所产生的,以成都平原为主体的地域空间上有条件形成一个都市圈.将成都与14个地级市之间的经济距离、引力和场强进行计算,最后综合划定成都都市圈的空间范围为成都、自贡、德阳、绵阳、遂宁、内江、乐山、眉山、雅安、资阳等.根据指标划分,确定德阳、绵阳、眉山、资阳为内圈层城市,自贡、遂宁、内江...     

A new vaccine supply chain network under COVID-19 conditions considering system dynamic: Artificial intelligence algorithms

With the discovery of the COVID-19 vaccine, what has always been worrying the decision-makers is related to the distribution management, the vaccination centers' location, and the inventory control of all types of vaccines. As the COVID-19 vaccine is highly demanded, planning for its fair distribution is a must. University is one of the most densely populated areas in a city, so it is critical to vaccinate university students so that the spread of this virus is curbed. As a result, in the present study, a new stochastic multi-objective, multi-period, and multi-commodity simulation-optimization model has been developed for the COVID-19 vaccine's production, distribution, location, allocation, and inventory control decisions. In this study, the proposed supply chain network includes four echelons of manufacturers, hospitals, vaccination centers, and volunteer vaccine students. Vaccine manufacturers send the vaccines to the vaccination centers and hospitals after production. The students with a history of special diseases such as heart disease, corticosteroids, blood clots, etc. are vaccinated in hospitals because of accessing more medical care, and the rest of the students are vaccinated in the vaccination centers. Then, a system dynamic structure of the prevalence of COVID -19 in universities is developed and the vaccine demand is estimated using simulation, in which the demand enters the mathematical model as a given stochastic parameter. Thus, the model pursues some goals, namely, to minimize supply chain costs, maximize student desirability for vaccination, and maximize justice in vaccine distribution. To solve the proposed model, Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) and Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) algorithms are used. In terms of novelties, the most important novelties in the simulation model are considering the virtual education and exerted quarantine effect on estimating the number of the vaccines. In terms of the mathematical model, one of the remarkable contributions is paying attention to social distancing while receiving the injection and the possibility of the injection during working and non-working hours, and regarding the novelties in the solution methodology, a new heuristic method based on a meta-heuristic algorithm called Modified WOA with VNS (MVWOA) is developed. In terms of the performance metrics and the CPU time, the MOWOA is discovered with a superior performance than other given algorithms. Moreover, regarding the data, a case study related to the COVID-19 pandemic period in Tehran/Iran is provided to validate the proposed algorithm. The outcomes indicate that with the demand increase, the costs increase sharply while the vaccination desirability for students decreases with a slight slope.     

国外住房保障制度比较研究

分析了美国、英国、德国、日本、韩国、新加坡等国家城市中低收入者住房保障体系的主要特色。重点分析了美国从供需两方面进行补贴的保障模式、英国的混合产权补贴方式、日本的住房保障三大支柱,同时,还比较了德国、韩国和新加坡三国住房保障体系的差异。概括出这些国家城市中低收入者住房保障体系的主要特征和存在的矛盾,即从补贴卖方到补贴买方的转变,根据发展阶段确定需要补贴的卖方以及以需求补贴为主导的特色补贴模式。最后,对国外城市中低收入者住房保障体系进行了评价,指出了公房建设与国民经济发展、政府与民间团体以及政府与城市中低收入者之间存在的三大矛盾。     

准格尔宇星超市物流配送中心业务流程优化研究

配送中心是现代社会物流系统中的重要节点。通过对商品的进货、验收入库、仓储、订单处理、拣货、包装、分类、出货、检查、配送、信息处理等进行科学管理,可以大幅度减轻作业劳动强度,减少商品损耗,降低库存周转率,加速商品流通,同时提高社会满意程度,从而增强企业竞争力。文中首先分析了准格尔宇星超市配送中心的现状,找出其作业流程中的问题,提出了作业流程优化的对策,达到缩短流程作业时间、提高物流效率、提高服务水平、降低物流成本、提高企业竞争力的目的。     

电子音乐流派的社会变革(英文)

从社会和政治变化、电子音乐流派的发展,形成了电子音乐,科学和技术的发展对电子音乐有重大的影响。他们是四个不同历史时期的发展——未来派,法西斯主义,达达派、电子音乐的时期。从最早使用:麦架,嘘声,窃窃私语,爆炸等。音乐和表达感情的表现,在阶级斗争,政治变革和经济危机、发展迅速的电子音乐,用在许多不同的零件,例如播放音乐、电影、电视等,都成了一个必不可少的组成部分的音乐市场。     

Book Reviews

Steven Seidman, Contested Knowledge. Social Theory in the Postmodern Era
K. Grint and S. Woolgar, The Machine at Work: Technology, Work and Organisation
Steven Albert and Keith Bradley, Managing Knowledge. Experts, Agencies and Organizations
David J. Hickson, and Derek S. Pugh, Management Worldwide: The Impact of Societal Culture on Organizations around the Globe
Ram Mudambi, and Martin Ricketts (Eds), The Organisation of the Firm: International Business Perspectives.
Sue Dopson, Managing Ambiguity and Change: the Case of the NHS
Steven Seidman, Contested Knowledge. Social Theory in the Postmodern Era
K. Grint, and S. Woolgar, The Machine at Work: Technology, Work and Organisation
Steven Albert, and Keith Bradley, Managing Knowledge. Experts, Agencies and Organizations
David J. Hickson, and Derek S. Pugh, Management Worldwide: The Impact of Societal Culture on Organizations around the Globe
Ram Mudambi, and Martin Ricketts (Eds), The Organisation of the Firm: International Business Perspectives
Sue Dopson, Managing Ambiguity and Change: the Case of the NHS     

物流网络路径优化模型的探究

基于山东省的地理特点,在若干假设前提下研究从供应商到制造厂,再从制造厂到物流中心的三点二层的线性规划问题的最优解。由于涉及节点较多,不方便运用运筹学上的单纯形法和表上作业法,而用到一种专门求解优化模型的软件即LINGO软件。经过若干组数据的比较和规律总结,得出山东省基于三点两层物流问题的最优路径,并确定所选路径上的运输量以及最低的物流成本。     

产学研联盟问题研究综述

产学研联盟是国家创新体系的重要组成部分,一直是世界各国研究和探讨的热点课题。对文献的总结发现,在产学研联盟问题的研究中,主要集中在产学研联盟形成动因、合作模式、绩效评估以及联盟中的风险和知识转移、技术转移等5个方面的问题。本文揭示了产学研联盟有关研究问题间的联系,并针对每一研究问题,阐明了其主要的研究角度、研究观点及研究内容。     

工程项目自然风险管理研究

中国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,灾害的多发性决定了其对工程建设项目具有不可忽视的影响。并且,最近几年我国各种自然灾害、极端气候的发生更加频繁,范围更加广泛,影响更加严重,所以在进行项目的建设时有必要加强对自然风险的管理。本文,首先对自然风险和风险管理进行了简单的介绍,然后从项目的质量、成本、工期、安全的角度浅谈了自然风险对项目的影响;接着从风险管理的角度,用定量和定性的方法对风险的识别和估计、风险评价、风险应对、风险的决策等方面对自然风险的管理进行分析和说明,最后得出一些结论和看法。     

Slower economic growth affects the 1995 labor market

As the pace of economic activity moderated in 1995, job growth slowed. Nonetheless, it was enough to absorb the small increase in the supply of labor, with the result that the unemployment rate remained at about the same level it had reached at the end of 1994. In the first quarter of 1995, employment grew at a brisk pace but, as the economy began to slow, job gains fell sharply. Employment growth continued at a much more moderate pace for the balance of the year, so that, by the fourth quarter, nearly 1.9 million jobs had been added to the Nation's payrolls. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 1994 alone, payroll employment had grown by 1.1 million. Most of the job gains in 1995 were in the services industry group. Manufacturing employment, which had been rising since the fall of 1993, began to decline in the spring, and by the end of 1995, that industry group had lost nearly a quarter of a million jobs. Employment increased in most of the other major industry groups, even though declines in some of their component industries partly offset gains in others.     

When Production and Consumption Meet: Cultural Contradictions and the Enchanting Myth of Customer Sovereignty

ABSTRACT The central cultural contradiction of capitalism, argued Bell some 25 years ago, was the existence of rationalized, disciplined production alongside free and hedonistic consumption. This paper argues that this thesis, although overstated, has resonance within contemporary capitalism. The paper then considers the question of how this contradiction is managed when production and consumption meet directly within the service interaction. On the production-side rationalization is joined by customer-orientation, and on the consumption-side management promotes consumption of the enchanting myth of sovereignty. Here the customer is meant to experience a sense of being sovereign. At the same time the space is created for the customer to be, potentially, substantively directed and influenced to follow the requirements that flow from the rationalized elements of production. Key aspects of the service interaction, including the menu and its presentation, the display of empathy and aesthetic labour, and the use of naming within the service interaction, are analysed in terms of the promotion of the enchanting myth of sovereignty. Consumption, however, is a fragile process, and remains, to an important degree, 'unmanageable'. The analysis, therefore, also examines how the promotion of the enchanting myth of sovereignty systematically creates the conditions for the myth's negation.     

汽车安全带总成强度设计探讨

众所周知，当车辆发生道路交通事故时，汽车安全带对于保护车上乘员发挥非常重要的保护作用。为实现安全带良好的保护效果，安全带总成的强度设计和保证是关键。一方面，汽车安全带总成必须具有足够的强度，防止在车辆发生碰撞事故时安全带总成出现断裂或失效；另一方面，从安全带制造成本和整车减重角度考虑，不能够无限制地增大其强度。因此，在设计安全带强度时，制造商应该在其强度性能和制造成本之间选择合理的平衡点，使其能够满足使用强度要求，又能合理地控制生产成本。文章从汽车整车制造商的角度考虑，探讨汽车安全带总成强度设计的一般方法。     

公用事业产品定价的市场机制与政府规制

城市公用事业是典型的垄断性产业,通过城市公用事业地域与网络垄断性、外部性、公益与营利双重性分析,论证了政府价格规制之必要。其次分析了以新古典经济学和凯恩斯经济学作为逻辑理论基础的西方国家城市公用事业价格规制,及其逐步形成的公共利益理论、俘获理论、寻租理论以及放松规制乃至取消规制的演化过程。最后深入剖析我国城市公用事业存在的规制单一、价格倒逼、补偿缺位,监管虚设等问题,继而提出了强化市场定价、设计经济杠杆、完善社会监督、加强政府监管、构建价格体系等政策建议,以期实现政府规制与市场化融合,提升规制的公平、公正与效能。     

对工程项目管理组织模式优化的探讨

国际上通用的项目管理咨询服务内容包括设计准备、设计、施工、动用前准备以及保修五个阶段，在各阶段要做投资控制、进度控制、质量控制、合同管理、信息管理以及组织协调六个方面的工作，而我国的建设监理直到现在还主要是负责施工阶段的质量控制工作。本文试图把工程咨询任务作了一定的调整与优化，把其工作分成了两个层次，上层作项目整体策划和项目控制，另一层作纯粹的施工质量监理，从而，提高了项目管理组织运行的效率，进而     

金融危机形势下破解中小企业融资难的路径选择

融资难一直是制约中小企业发展的主要因素。尤其在全球金融危机形势下,中小企业融资难问题更加严重。中小企业融资难的原因是多方面的,既有政府、银行方面的,更有中小企业本身的。因此,要有效解决中小企业融资难问题,必须政府、银行和中小企业多方联合起来,在政策落实、财政投入、信贷担保、社会资本市场建设等方面进行金融创新,才能顺利渡过难关。     

透析组织中的员工沉默行为

从企业管理的角度提出了员工沉默的四分法,即:个体沉默、群体沉默、同行沉默和上行沉默四种形式,并分析了员工沉默的产生原因,以及员工沉默对组织和员工个体带来的消极影响。在此基础上,提出了改善员工沉默的人力资源管理和开发策略。     

基于案例难度矩阵的物流管理课程案例教学方法研究

作为一种面向实际环境的教学方法,案例教学法能培养学生的分析能力、决策能力、表达能力、应用能力、社交能力,并能促进学生的创造性思维,培养学习兴趣,被广泛地应用于商科学生的教学实践中。目前,我国的案例教学存在优秀案例少、案例脱离实际等诸多问题。在案例教学过程中,教师们可以利用案例难度矩阵进行案例的组合、撰写,以达到案例教学的良好效果。最后,以物流管理课程为例,在课程的导入期,选择短小精悍的案例,介绍物流的基本理念;在大量知识点的章节,选择案例难度大的案例,通过让学生扮演物流管理人员的角色,激发学生参与教学的积极性;在基本内容传授之后,导入综合性案例,锻练学生全面、整体把握知识点的能力。对比发现,案例教学优于传统的灌输式教学模式,实现了教学目标,提高了教学质量。     

Empirical analysis of long memory,leverage, and distribution effects for stock market risk estimates

In this study, eight generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) types of variance specifications and two return distribution settings, the normal and skewed generalized Student's t (SGT) of Theodossiou (1998), totaling nine GARCH-based models, are utilized to forecast the volatility of six stock indices, and then both the out-of-sample-period value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES) are estimated following the rolling window approach. Moreover, the in-sample VaR is estimated for both the global financial crisis (GFC) period and the non-GFC period. Subsequently, through several accuracy measures, nine models are evaluated in order to explore the influence of long memory, leverage, and distribution effects on the performance of VaR and ES forecasts. As shown by the empirical results of the nine models, the long memory, leverage, and distribution effects subsist in the stock markets. Moreover, regarding the out-of-sample VaR forecasts, long memory is the most important effect, followed by the leverage effect for the low level, whereas the distribution effect is crucial for the high level. As for the three VaR approaches, weighted historical simulation achieves the best VaR forecasting performance, followed by filtered historical simulation, whereas the parametric approach has the worst VaR forecasting performance for all the levels. Furthermore, VaR models underestimate the true risk, whereas ES models overestimate the true risk, indicating that the ES risk measure is more conservative than the VaR risk measure. Additionally, based on back-testing, the VaR provides a better risk forecast than the ES since the ES highly overestimates the true risk. Notably, long memory is important for the ES estimate, whereas both the long memory and the leverage effect are crucial for the VaR estimate. Finally, via in-sample VaR forecasts in regard to the low level, it is found that long memory is important for the non-GFC period, whereas the distribution effect is crucial for the GFC period. On the other hand, with regard to the high level, the distribution effect is crucial for both the non-GFC and the GFC period. These results seem to be consistent with those found in the out-of-sample VaR forecasts. In accordance with these results, several important policy implications are proposed in this study.     

Task assignment,incentives and technological factors

In this paper, we examine the allocation of tasks between a principal and an agent considering their incentives to provide effort, their different abilities in handling tasks, and transmission costs. We focus our attention on two tasks: the first may be handled by the principal or by the agent, whereas the second is necessarily carried out by the agent. Under a fully decentralised organisation, the agent performs both tasks, whereas, under partial delegation, the principal handles the first task and transfers the outcome to the agent who handles the second task. Assuming technological complementarities, from our analysis it emerges that, if there is imperfect observability of effort, full delegation is better at eliciting effort by the agent in the second task, whereas, in comparison with partial delegation, it lowers effort in the first task. Although with contractible effort, the choice between the two organisational forms depends only on transmission costs and on the relative ability of its members, when moral hazard problems are taken into account, the organisational choice is related to the relative importance played by the two tasks in production. If the agent's task is relatively important in production, full delegation, encouraging a higher level of effort in this task, may be optimal, even if technological factors favour partial delegation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.