Stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms: A new perspective to understand business cycles

Economists believe that economic fluctuations can be smoothed by stabilization mechanisms, such as price adjustment, embedded in the economy. While price adjustment can be seen as a stabilization mechanism, are there mechanisms that can destabilize an economy? We find that as early as 1939, Harrod discussed a destabilization mechanism, the firm's investment adjustment, illustrated in his knife-edge puzzle. We build a macro-dynamic model with investment and price as the core macroeconomic variables. Our analysis shows that the interaction between the stabilization mechanism (price adjustment) and the destabilization mechanism (investment adjustment) generates fluctuations and cycles. However, due to price stickiness, the price adjustment mechanism may not be enough to stabilize the economy. In this case, a government stabilization policy is necessary for further stabilization. As this paper also addresses the microfoundations of Keynesian quantity theory, including the choice of output and investment in optimization, it can be related to traditional Keynesian economics, with a new perspective to understand business cycles.     

质量投资模型下的安全食品生产实体决策行为分析

食品生产实体的质量投资决策行为将影响食品市场的质量安全总体水平。本文依据经济学理论,构建了食品生产实体质量投资模型,并进行了案例分析。结果显示：影响食品生产实体做出质量投资决策的因素依次为安全食品价格、企业资本实力、质量投资量、政府支持。     

Australian Business Investment: A New Look at the Neoclassical Approach*

This paper attempts to reconcile neoclassical theory with Australian investment data. We argue that, by focusing almost exclusively on the demand for capital services, neoclassical investment theory neglects two related decisions: the decision to own the existing capital stock, and the decision to produce new capital goods. We propose a simple model of investment behaviour that integrates production decisions with portfolio decisions. Careful consideration is given to the determination of the price of capital, the rental price of capital, and the return on capital. The model is estimated by FIML, and a number of simulation results are reported.     

刍议中国劳动力价格与经济增长路径转变

改革开放以来,中国经济取得了令世人瞩目的成就,与此同时,经济运行中不和谐的因素也日益增加.投资和消费的比例关系失衡,表现为投资率偏高而消费率偏低.从劳动者收入入手研究投资、消费比例问题,在研究中国劳动力价格的现状后得出结论:相对于居民生活密切相关的粮价、油价、水电费、通讯费、教育费、医疗费来说,中国劳动力价格太低,因此,提高劳动力价格,增加其收入才是破解投资消费失衡的"密钥",也是促进中国经济从依赖投资的增长方式向依靠消费拉动经济增长方式的增长路径转变的"治本之道".     

Regulation by prices and by command

Standard economic theory states that regulation by price is more efficient than regulation by command and control. Exceptions may arise if regulators have good knowledge of the supply curve. In practice, though, governments usually regulate by command and control and do so when there is uncertainty about the technology of supply. We show that government may prefer to regulate by command and control when it cares about the investment decisions of a firm.We are grateful for comments by Kenneth Small, the editor, and two anonymous referees.     

企业资产价格对宏观经济的影响——基于企业成本收益核算模型的理论和实证研究

本文首先基于企业成本收益核算模型,以一个新的理论框架分析了企业利润和资产价格对投资的影响.其次,用我国的投资、企业利润、资产价格的年度数据进行了实证研究.进而通过理论模型分析了资产价格与宏观经济稳定之间的关系.研究结果表明,我国投资与企业利润及资产价格(特别是房地产价格)之间存在显著的正相关关系,资产价格的稳定是宏观经济稳定运行的必要条件.最后,作者给出了政府穗定经济的具体政策建议.     

Economic liberalization and price response of aggregate private investment: time series evidence from India

Abstract.  This paper presents evidence on the effects of economic liberalization of 1991 on the price responsiveness of aggregate private investment in India. The wide ranging reforms are expected to increase the price response of private investment due to (i) the Le Chatelier effect, (ii) a higher price elasticity of demand for final goods, and (iii) possible relaxation of the credit constraint. The empirical results, based on alternative specifications, estimation methods, and sample periods, show a dramatic increase in the price response; the elasticity of investment with respect to the relative cost of capital has increased five times after the dismantling of the 'Licence Raj.'     

房价结构调整与经济结构转型

目前,我国住宅房地产价格明显偏离正常值。对房价结构的分析表明,房价结构中33.86%的资金流向了政府。经过房价结构这一隐秘机制的运行,本来属于居民消费领域的购房资金被转变为政府投资资本,导致经济结构中投资与消费之间的比例失衡。这与我国加快经济结构调整,增加消费在促进经济增长中的比重相悖。为应对上述情况,加快优化房价结构是促进经济结构转型的有力举措。     

中国房地产价格运行轨迹及驱动因素

以1999—2008年数据为样本,利用多因素回归分析方法,构建了中国商品房平均价格影响因素模型,研究结果认为城镇投资和贷款利率是影响商品房价格的主要因素。要实现房地产行业的平稳发展,必须转变投资拉动型经济增长模式,鼓励消费、拉动内需,提高消费对经济增长的贡献程度,从而达到降低城镇投资增长速度,抑制房地产价格过快增长的目的。     

溢出效应、价格规制与企业投资激励——以电信产业“共建共享”政策为视角

电信运营商不愿参与"共建共享"缘于这项政策可能会降低产品差异化程度,加剧竞争。文章基于三阶段轮辐模型,从福利经济学角度考察无规制和存在接入价格规制情形下的最优投资水平发现,如果企业为争夺老用户竞争,溢出效应不仅会降低投资厂商与接入厂商之间的差异化,而且会导致厂商投资更加偏离社会最优投资水平;如果企业定位于拓展新用户,溢出效应反而可以提高全行业的经济效益,同时使得更多消费者享受到电信服务。但是,为消除市场失灵带来的投资偏离而采取价格规制政策会进一步扭曲厂商投资的激励。基于此,文章认为在电信用户迅速增长的今天,政府应出台更多"共建共享"的配套政策促进企业投资。     

Toward a combined merchant-regulatory mechanism for electricity transmission expansion

Electricity transmission pricing and transmission grid expansion have received increasing attention in recent years. There are two disparate approaches to transmission investment: one employs the theory based on long-run financial rights (LTFTR) to transmission (merchant approach), while the other is based on the incentive-regulation hypothesis (regulatory approach). In this paper we consider the elements that could combine the merchant and regulatory approaches in a setting with price-taking electricity generators and loads. The monopoly transmission firm (Transco) is regulated through benchmark or price regulation to provide long-term investment incentives. The two-part tariff approach used can be analyzed analytically only for well-behaved cost and demand functions. We explore a series of simplified transmission grids to argue that in a variety of circumstances those functions could have reasonable economic properties. The results suggest directions for further research to explore the properties of the cost functions and implications for design of practical incentive mechanisms and the integration with merchant investment in organized markets with LTFTRs.     

Sraffa: the theoretical world of the ‘old classical economists’ *

Sraffa's mature work is seen here as a re-discovery and resumption of the ‘submerged and forgotten’ approach of the ‘old classical economists from Adam Smith to Ricardo’. Wages determined by broad economic and social forces entail there product prices determined independently of demand and supply functions. Some main questions raised for the modern economists by this radical reorientation of economic theory are then considered in order to conclude that it is aginst that background that Sraffa's mature work should be set with its three main contributions, of a rediscovery of the approach, of a complete and transparent solution of the problems of price determination it raises, and of its application to the critique of neoclassical theory. Among several developments originating from Sraffa's seminal work, two are singled out for mention: (i) the possibility of deficiencies of aggregate demand in the long period no less than in the short one; this follows naturally from the abandonment of the neoclassical theory of distribution, of which the role of the interset rate in equilibrating savings and investment is a corollary; (ii) the question of the distribution of the surplus between wages and profits in a modern economy where wages are no longer confined to subsistence.     

货币政策与金融资产价格

( 1 )货币政策对金融资产价格 (特别是股票价格 )有影响 ,当投资的上升引起原材料和劳动力价格上涨时 ,扩张性货币政策的长期结果是同时引起商品物价水平和股票价格的上升 ;当投资具有规模经济效应或可以使劳动生产率显著提高时 ,扩张性货币政策的长期结果是股价的上升和物价水平的下降。因此 ,货币数量与通货膨胀的关系不仅取决于商品和服务的价格 ,而且在一定意义上取决于股市。 ( 2 )无论股市财富效应大小 ,通过货币政策刺激股票市场拉动需求的做法在长期都是不可靠的。当股市价格偏离稳态已经越来越远时 ,经济运行将是不安全的。     

上大压小项目的投资经济评价

本文分别运用折现现金流法和基于实物期权的经济评价方法,采用案例分析的形式,对“上大压小”政策执行中部分尚未达到寿命期的20万千瓦机组的关停时机及其经济性问题进行了分析,并时折现现金流法以及基于实物期权的评价方法的结果及其适用性进行了对比;同时,在采用折现现金流法时,对发电企业进行了财务经济评价和国民经济评价,并对机组单位造价、上网电价、煤价等因素进行了敏感性分析,在评价过程中量化了案例中各备选方案的环境成本。本文还应用实物期权理论研究了大机组滞后投资问题。两种方法的评价结果均表明,从全社会的福利角度出发,对尚未达到寿命期的小机组不应该立即关停,而应该使其继续运行到寿命期末再上大机组。本文所采用的经济评价方法能够为“上大压小”项目的执行提供辅助决策支持。     

Tax policy and investment demand: A vintage approach

The effects of changes intax incentives for investment are investigated for a putty-clay vintage model in which replacement is an economic decision without requiring static expectations or steady-state growth. It is shown that, with a Cobb-Douglas ex ante production function, the effect on output and its price is identical with that in a non-vintage model with the same parameters. The effect on investment and employment is to introduce a long-run cyclical element. Some simulations for UK manufacturing show that even the direction of the short-run effect on investment and employment can be different dates.     

WHAT PRICE THEORY CAN—AND CANNOT—DO FOR ANTITRUST

This paper examines the methodology and policy recommendations of Judge Robert Bork's writing on antitrust. It accepts as valid his premise that conventional price theory is the only appropriate organon for evaluating the welfare impact of an antitrust rule. However, it holds that in the analysis of cartels and mergers, Bork does not realize the full implications of his approach.
Of the many prohibitions which antitrust law now contains, Bork wants to retain only two-the prohibition of cartels and of large horizontal mergers. Even these two, however, cannot be maintained on pure price theory grounds. According to price theory, if price or merger agreements are inefficient, and i f entry and exit are free, then these agreements-like other inefficient practices-will be eroded by entry. Consistently applied, then, price the0 y provides no support for antitrust laws.
A lack of support on price theory grounds does not imply that antitrust laws are unjustified. Most practices prohibited by anti-trust law have closesubstitutes. Consequently, the law probably inflicts no great harm on economic efjiciency. Moreover, repeal of these laws could result in state-owned monopolies or economic planning, both of which would be far worse for economic efficiency.     

对中国当前宏观调控的基本判断和预期

中国已进入全面通胀时期,通胀现象将在小幅振荡中持续攀升。通胀的主要根源是过度投资造成的流动性过剩,控制通胀必须在较长时期内坚持总量从紧的货币政策,必须改善和优化经济增长结构,降低各级政府投资冲动,依赖于政府职能转变,即把大部分经济职能移交给市场,由市场与政府共同分担调控责任。保证增长、控制物价,需进一步深化产权改革,刺激以农民为主体的有恒产者掀起新一轮投资热潮,并以此作为未来最主要的经济增长点。     

The impact of coal price fluctuations on China’s economic output

Due to the important role of coal in China’s macroeconomic growth, the price of coal significantly influences its economic output. Employing a VAR model, a cointegration test and a state-space model of time-varying variables, this article analyses the influence of coal price fluctuations on the volume and structure of China’s economic output, including both the strength and the time delay of such influence. This article further explores the corresponding relationships between coal price fluctuations and variations in the effects of these fluctuations to analyse the asymmetric influence of coal price fluctuations on China’s macroeconomy. Coal price fluctuations exerted significant long-term positive effects and short-term negative effects on China’s output variables, with an average delay of 11 months; they had positive effects on investment and consumption over the long term and an increasingly negative effect on imports and exports. The average delays were 9 months for investment, 6.5 months for consumption and 10 months for imports and exports. There was an asymmetric correlation between coal price fluctuations and the time-varying elasticity of their impact on GDP. The results in this study are consistent with the actual operating circumstances of the Chinese economy.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF REAL INCOME

This paper is about the theory of the measurement of real income. By "theory of measurement" I mean the characterization of statistical terms as variables in a model, just as real consumption is characterized as an indicator of utility and the consumer price index is characterized as the cost of attaining a given level of utility in the economic theory of index numbers developed by Konus, Frisch and others half a century ago. I identify five logically distinct and internally-consistent concepts of real income: maximum sustainable consumption, consumption plus the output of new capital goods, consumption plus the increase in the capital stock where capital can be measured in two quite separate ways, and the sum of actual consumption and consumption forgone in the investment process. The last of these concepts is the most appropriate as a guide to producing long time series of real income for measuring a country's rate of economic growth.     

能源基础设施项目土地价格的确定——以电网工程为例

本文在对现行土地价格计算方法分析研究的基础上,提出了项目经济评价中土地价格的确定方法,并以电网建设项目为例,给出了项目财务评价中土地费用及国民经济评价中土地影子价格的计算原则与方法,使项目投资者能较为准确合理地计算能源基础设施项目投资组成中的土地费用,提高项目经济评价的可靠性。