环境规制提高了制造业产业链前沿技术的吸收能力吗*

基于熊比特的创新理论,本文构建了环境规制与产业链前沿技术吸收能力的实证研究框架。本文首先将OECD成员和美国制造业产业发展构建为技术前沿面,以微观企业层面的数据为基础,通过稳健的TFP和价格加成的测度方法,量化了环境规制对产业链内企业绩效的影响效应。实证研究表明：环境规制能够有效地促进制造业产业链对于产业前沿技术的吸收能力,缩小与产业前沿技术面的发展差异,环境规制虽然在短期能够削弱企业的市场势力,但是在长期则能够显著地提升企业的市场势力,两者存在显著的U型曲线关系。据此,本文提出了优化产业链环境规制政策组合、提升产业链国际竞争力的对策建议。     

环境规制与研发投入对绿色技术创新的影响效应

绿色技术创新难以自发形成,需要外部激励。在回顾环境规制、研发投入与绿色技术创新相关文献的基础上,从系统学视角出发,构建了环境规制与研发投入对绿色技术创新产生效用的系统动力学模型,并以中国工业企业为例,实证检验了模型的适用性。同时,通过调控2005-2025年环境规制强度与研发投入的参数变化,模拟仿真绿色技术创新的动态变化。仿真结果表明,加强环境规制和提高研发投入均有助于企业绿色技术创新,环境规制在短期内优于研发投入的促进效果,但在未来低于研发投入的促进效果;研发投入对绿色技术创新有正向作用,且随时间变化不断增强;研发投入主体和投入对象应向企业转移,以突出企业促进绿色技术创新的主体作用。最后,根据仿真结果,为绿色技术创新的未来发展提出政策建议。     

Endogenous Growth Models and Stock Market Development: Evidence from Four Countries

This paper re‐examines the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. It provides a theoretical basis for establishing the channel through which stock markets affect economic growth in the long run. It examines the hypothesis of endogenous growth models that financial development causes higher growth through its influence on the level of investment and its productivity. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed to test for causality in VARs. The evidence obtained from a sample of four countries suggests that investment productivity is the channel through which stock market development enhances the growth rate in the long run.     

Imports and growth in China

In this paper, we analyze the role played by imports and investment on labor productivity and output in China from 1964 to 2004. In doing so, our analysis focuses on the role of technological progress incorporated into the Chinese economy through capital accumulation and imports, which could be a cause of significant technology transfer from abroad that facilitated industrialization and rapid growth in China. However, as we know that there could be other factors influencing economic development, we have also considered the role played by domestic innovation activities, competitiveness and foreign economic conditions. We focus on examining the short- and long-run effects of the considered variables as well as the direction of their causality. In addition, we investigate the role played by the exchange rate on growth and discuss some policy implications of this effect on the current debate on the appreciation of the Yuan. The empirical results provide evidence that both imports and investment encourage output and labor productivity in the long run, but neither investment causes imports nor imports cause investment. Moreover, we found that during the period considered the real exchange rate influenced output, but not productivity. These findings provide interesting insights on the future Chinese economic policy.     

刍议中国能源消费与经济增长的内在关系

从包含了资本、劳动力、能源的三因素生产函数出发,选取了可能找到的最长的时间序列数据,综合运用ECM模型和脉冲分析的方法,把变量之间的长期关系和短期影响结合在一起分析,并考察能源与经济之间在同期内的互相作用和因果流向关系,阐述了能源消费对于中国经济发展以及节能减排的重要影响。     

Regulations and productivity: Long run effects and nonlinear influences

This study examines the impact of product market regulations on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and explores whether regulatory reforms exert a nonlinear influence on TFP growth. It also distinguishes between short run and long run effects of regulation. The obtained empirical evidence reveals that lower regulations in the long run exert a significantly positive effect on TFP of OECD countries. Short run effects of regulation are not always statistically significant. The influence of regulatory changes is higher in countries with high levels of regulation. Also, the damaging effects of regulation are more intense in countries with low technology gaps. These results hold across a wide array of econometric specifications and variables that measure regulation and TFP.     

The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China

There is agreement in the literature on economic growth concerning the transitory effects of capital accumulation on the process of economic development. However, controversy arises if this effect is permanent. In this sense, the key point is the embodied technological progress and whether supply factors predominate among the determinants of capital accumulation. Only in this case should expect long-run effects of capital accumulation on economic growth. Inspired by this idea, I focus the study on two elements accounting for economic development—equipment investment and productive infrastructure and I also analyze the type of the empirical relationship that exists between them. The results indicate that equipment investment and infrastructures have played a significant role in accounting for long-run growth in China. However, I do not find empirical evidence supporting any relationship between the two types of investment. In addition, I find that foreign trade has stimulated output and equipment investment in the long run. Finally, it is found that innovation activities encourage equipment investment in the long run.     

A cost function analysis of import demand and growth in South Africa

This study investigates the substitutability relationships among capital, labor, and imported inputs for South Africa, utilizing the estimates obtained from an aggregate cost function. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is a substitute for both domestic labor and imports, but that labor and imports are complementary inputs. This latter result suggests that relaxing South African trade restrictions may have a positive impact, in both the long and the short run, on the demand for domestic labor. Other results suggest that the reduction of market impediments may also positively impact the production of investment goods and economic growth.     

The interplay between labor market rigidity and volatility-growth nexus

Using a simple innovation‐driven growth model I investigate to what extent labor market regulations underlie the devastating effects of output volatility on long‐run growth trends. Empirical analysis conducted for 154 countries over the 1996–2005 period shows that an increase from low values of the rigidity of employment index strengthens the influence of volatility on growth. This effect weakens with further increases in rigidity. Hence implementation of labor protection legislation is recommended in economies frequently hit by shocks.     

跨国公司在中国沿海地区投资区位变化的实证分析

自20世纪90年代后期以来,跨国公司在中国的投资区位发生了明显的变化。其中,突出表现为跨国公司投资的重心由珠江三角洲地区向长江三角洲地区的转移。本文采取实证分析的方法,对跨国公司在珠江三角洲地区和长江三角洲地区的投资差异进行实证检验,并进一步探寻影响跨国公司投资区位变动的关键因素。研究发现,劳动力素质、市场潜力等因素在跨国公司投资区位选择中的作用越来越重要,而劳动力成本、当地的经济规模等传统因素的影响则明显减弱。     

Cancer survivors in the labor market: Evidence from recent US micro-panel data

Rising cancer survival rates and retiring at older ages improve the probability of labor market presence for cancer survivors. Yet, insufficient evidence exists on the labor market effects of male- and female- specific cancers. Therefore, using a theoretical construct of labor supply and health capital, this study exploits a nationally representative dataset, the 2008–2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), for estimating the correlated random effects (CRE) and over-dispersion empirical models to capture the job market effects for cancer survivors. After addressing the potential endogeneity of cancer and controlling for the number of years after cancer diagnoses, the estimated CRE model detect substantial male-female differences in the labor market outcomes for the survivors. Male and female cancer types adversely affect short- and long- run employment prospects, and male-specific cancers increase weekly hours of work and decrease short- and long- run annual labor incomes. Moreover, gender-specific cancers increasingly limit long run family incomes and raise total health expenditures in the short- and intermediate- runs but not in the long-run. Additionally, while the cancers increase the likelihood of missing a work day for both genders in the short-run the effect is larger for females. Finally, the total annual cost of workplace absenteeism for the employed male- and female- cancer survivors range from $0.58bn to $3.1 bn.     

The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets

This paper presents empirical evidence suggesting that foreign portfolio investment had a positive and significant influence on the informational efficiency of eleven Central and Eastern European stock markets during the period 1999–2010, regardless of the type of dependence – short or long run – taken into account when determining the measure of the degree of informational efficiency. Furthermore, considering the asymmetric effects of the portfolio flows, we have generally found a direct and strong relation between the net positive flows and the degree of informational efficiency. Our panel results also show that market capitalization represents a significant explanatory factor for the presence of short run dependence, while liquidity is associated with the presence of long run dependence. After isolating the common shocks in time, market volatility seems to have an even greater impact on efficiency.     

货币政策与金融资产价格

( 1 )货币政策对金融资产价格 (特别是股票价格 )有影响 ,当投资的上升引起原材料和劳动力价格上涨时 ,扩张性货币政策的长期结果是同时引起商品物价水平和股票价格的上升 ;当投资具有规模经济效应或可以使劳动生产率显著提高时 ,扩张性货币政策的长期结果是股价的上升和物价水平的下降。因此 ,货币数量与通货膨胀的关系不仅取决于商品和服务的价格 ,而且在一定意义上取决于股市。 ( 2 )无论股市财富效应大小 ,通过货币政策刺激股票市场拉动需求的做法在长期都是不可靠的。当股市价格偏离稳态已经越来越远时 ,经济运行将是不安全的。     

Growing through Cycles in an Infinitely Lived Agent Economy

This paper extends the analysis of K. Matsuyama (Econometrica67 (1999), 335–347) to the case of an infinitely lived representative agent economy. The economy grows endogenously through endogenous fluctuations, perpetually moving back and forth between two phases. In one phase, there is no innovation, the market structure is competitive, and the economy grows solely by capital accumulation. In the other phase, new goods are introduced and the market structure is monopolistic. In the long run, both investment and innovation grow at the same rate, but the economy alternates between the periods of high investment and the periods of higher innovation. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E32, O11.     

政府创新投入可以促进市场创新投入吗——基于我国内地63所教育部直属高校科技创新数据的实证研究

高校是我国重要的创新研发主体,高校经费主要来源于政府和市场,这两种异质性研发创新投入关系值得关注。选取2005-2018年我国内地63所教育部直属高校科技创新数据,采用面板VAR模型和个体固定效应模型,从动态和静态两个方面对高校科技创新投入中政府创新投入与市场创新投入的关系进行实证检验。结果发现,在高校科技创新活动中,政府创新投入对市场创新投入存在积极影响,这种促进作用存在两期左右的滞后期,且只在短期内显著;从长期看,政府投入对市场投入的促进作用不显著。     

Factor-biased public capital and private capital crowding out

This paper studies the dynamic effects of public investment on private capital accumulation in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model of a small open economy with factor-biased public capital. I show that public investment induces rather complex private capital dynamics—falling in the short and in the long run, but potentially increasing along transition—if public capital augments private capital and private inputs are gross complements in production. Whether private investment is crowded in or out during transition critically depends on parameters that are empirically hard to measure, such as the labor supply elasticity and the elasticity of substitution between private inputs—a small increase in the latter from 0.5 to 0.6, for instance, turns a totally negative transitional effect into a predominantly positive one. These results help rationalize the lack of empirical consensus on the relationship between public and private investment.     

Competition and the capital-labor conflict

This paper analyzes the distributional effects of changes in the intensity of product market competition. The focus is on the interaction between imperfect competition in product markets and bargaining in the labor market. The main result is that, while a uniform intensification of product market competition increases employment, it may cause real wages to fall, in the short run as well as in the long run. This is especially likely if labor market regulations are favorable to workers. Therefore, product market and labor market regulations tend to reinforce each other politically, and compensatory fiscal transfers may be needed in order to enact employment-enhancing deregulation policies.     

The cause of Danish unemployment: Demand or supply shocks?

We study the Danish unemployment experience 1905–92 using a common trends model with cointegration constraints. To justify the identifying assumptions about the cointegration vectors and the common trends we present a simple macroeconomic model of the labor market. The model determines the long run behavior of labor productivity, employment, unemployment, real product and real consumer wages. The empirical results give support for three cointegration relations and two common trends. Based on the economic model the trends are interpreted as representing labor productivity (technology) and labor supply. With unemployment being nonstationary, the common trends analysis indicates that labor supply shocks is the primary source for explaining the behavior of unemployment. First Version Received: August 1999/Final Version Received: June 2000     

劳动力成本上升对不同规模企业创新行为的影响

现有研究认为劳动力成本上升会倒逼企业创新,但该结论主要基于规模以上企业实证研究,难以考察劳动力成本上升对不同规模企业创新行为的异质性影响。基于严格随机分层抽样的“中国企业-员工匹配调查”数据（CEES）,对劳动力成本上升背景下不同规模企业创新行为的异质性影响进行了大样本实证研究。将新产品推出速度作为企业创新的代理变量,研究发现劳动力成本上升对企业创新行为的影响在不同规模企业之间存在明显差异。大型企业创新速度显著加快,而中小企业的创新行为并未发现明显变化。进一步分析认为,之所以存在劳动力成本上升对中小企业创新的“倒逼失灵”现象,技能劳动力缺乏、职业培训投入不足和创新资金基础薄弱或是重要原因。     

ENDOGENOUS JOB CONTACT NETWORKS

We develop a model where workers, anticipating the risk of becoming unemployed, invest in connections in order to access information about available jobs that other workers may have. The investment in connections is high when the job separation rate in the labor market is moderate, whereas it is low for either low or high levels of job separation rate. The equilibrium response of network investment to changes in the labor market conditions generates novel empirical predictions. In particular, the probability that a worker finds a new job via his connections increases in the separation rate when the separation rate is low, whereas it decreases when the separation rate is high. These predictions are supported by the empirical patterns that we document for the U.K. labor market.