The political economy of international trade and factor mobility

Abstract. Free trade in goods and factors is efficient. When we move away from economic theory and consider the policies actually followed by governments, we observe distortions being implemented both on goods and factors trades. It is natural then to question the relative merits of the two types of intervention, and the normative literature has provided only partial answers. We ask then why is the international flow of goods and factors not free, and the political economy literature has looked at the two issues only separately. In studying the determination of trade policy, a theoretical paradigm has emerged, focusing on the role of influence driven contributions. This approach has also found strong empirical support. The literature on the political economy of factor mobility, on the other hand, is fragmented. Distortions in labor and capital flows are typically the subject of different studies, and only recently a unified framework has been proposed. More work has to be done in this area as well as in integrating the political economy of trade and factor movements.     

The conflict mitigating effects of trade in the India-Pakistan case

We examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan, beginning with a theoretical model covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations is best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy orientation and population are simultaneously considered. Our empirical investigation based on time series econometrics from 1950 to 2005 suggests that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Globalization, or a greater openness to international trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic orientation.     

Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows

A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response.     

汇率变动对我国商品贸易结构影响研究

汇率作为相对价格和政策变量,具有引导贸易流向和调整贸易结构的作用。由于汇率变动引起生产中所使用要素相对价格发生变化,从而改变一国生产某类商品比较优势程度发生变化,使统一汇率政策可以成为差别产业贸易政策。本文从我国进出口商品贸易结构以及贸易国别来源角度分析人民币汇率改制后我国进出口商品贸易结构变化。采用实证方法考察人民币实际汇率变动对我国进口和出口商品贸易结构的影响。     

Spatial and sectoral characteristics of China’s international and interregional virtual water flows – based on multi-regional input–output model

This paper provides a systematic analysis of spatial and sectoral characteristics and changes in virtual water flows associated with China’s interregional and international trade based on the China interregional input–output tables of 2002 and 2007. The results show significant improvement in water use efficiency between 2002 and 2007. However, the general spatial patterns and sectoral components of virtual water flows have more or less remained during the period. Almost all Chinese provinces are net exporters of virtual water in international trade. In interregional trade, the dominant direction of virtual water flow is from peripheral provinces to eastern coastal provinces. The agricultural sector plays an important role in shaping this direction and has significant impacts on water uses in exporting provinces, some of which are water scarce. The results of this study clarify some confusions concerning mismatches between regional water endowments and virtual water trade within China and with other countries.     

Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices. To this end, most previous studies used aggregate trade data. To avoid aggregation biases potentially hidden in aggregate data, recent studies have relied on bilateral trade data. Since import and export price data is not available on bilateral level, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows. The models are applied between the US and her 19 industrial trading partners using recent advances in time-series modeling.     

Forecasting Australia’s economic performance during the Asian crisis

During the Asian economic crisis of 1997–98, published forecasts from a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model consistently indicated that the crisis would have little or no effect on Australia’s economic performance, despite the deterioration in the trade balance. The worsening trade deficit led many other forecasters to predict a sharp fall in Australia’s GDP growth rate, as the countries most severely affected by the crisis represent over 60 percent of Australia’s export markets. This paper argues that the more pessimistic forecasts attached too much weight to the links between Australia’s external accounts and GDP growth. In particular, I show that forecasts for the period September 1997 to December 1998, conditional on the actual path of the merchandise trade balance, predict higher inflation and interest rates than unconditional forecasts from a model without the trade balance. There does, however, appear to be useful information in the individual components of the trade deficit. Conditioning on the actual paths of both exports and imports generally produces more accurate forecasts than conditioning on net exports. In particular, conditioning on the trade balance results in the least accurate forecasts for inflation and interest rates of any of the models considered here. On the other hand, conditioning on the individual trade flows produces the most accurate forecasts for inflation, and the second-most accurate for interest rates. Taken together, the results presented here lend support to the argument that Australia’s trade flows represent the outcomes of optimizing decisions, rather than defining constraints on economic growth.     

TRADE AND FACTOR FLOWS IN A DIVERSE EU: WHAT LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN ENLARGEMENT(S)?

Abstract.  This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures.     

‘DUAL’ GRAVITY: USING SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS TO CONTROL FOR MULTILATERAL RESISTANCE

We derive a quantity‐based structural gravity equation system in which both trade flows and error terms are cross‐sectionally correlated. This system can be estimated using techniques borrowed from the spatial econometrics literature. To illustrate our methodology, we apply it to a well‐known Canada–US trade dataset. We find that border effects between the USA and Canada are smaller than suggested by previous studies: about 7.5 for Canadian provinces and about 1.3 for US states. Hence controlling directly for cross‐sectional interdependence among both trade flows and error terms reduces measured border effects by capturing ‘multilateral resistance’. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Pilot Exploration of Random Period Duration in Experimental Financial Markets: A Treatment Variable?

This exploratory paper reports a pilot study of the impact of random period duration on the trading behaviour observed in experimental financial markets. Results reported in earlier experimental studies, many of which report a flurry of trade just prior to the end of a trading period, may have been influenced by knowledge of trading period duration. These exploratory findings suggest that the introduction of random period duration results in an increased volume of trade early in a period, which may then impinge upon the informational efficiency of the asset markets. These findings necessitate that future refinements to theoretical models of bid, ask and transaction price behaviour in double auctions explicitly address the influence of known period duration. However, no significant difference between the two markets is found with respect to allocational efficiency. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between U.S. and China: is there a third country effect

Impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows still continues to dominate the literature. Most previous research has used aggregate trade data between one country and the rest of the world or between two countries at a bilateral level. A recent study, however, considered the trade between the U.S. and China at the commodity level, but excluded the ??third-country?? effect in its analysis. In this paper, we consider the commodity trade between the U.S. and China one more time and investigate whether volatility of the real U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar has any implication on the trade flows between the U.S. and China. The answer happens to be in the affirmative, though a more significant third-country effect is found in the short run as compared to the long run.     

Does Political Democracy Enhance Human Development in Developing Countries?

A bstract .   Despite the considerable progress of human development (HD) in developing countries (DCs) during recent decades, vast differences still remain among such countries. The question thus arises of why these divergences persist. This cross-national study uses a larger sample of DCs to offer necessary testing of the impact of democracy on HD. This study adopts new measures of democracy featuring majority rule and political contention to estimate their correlation with three physical well-being indicators as well as with three school enrollment indicators. After controlling for several macro-level political and economic characteristics (state revenue and economic growth), the regression modeling for recent data from the 1980s and 1990s showed that democracies indeed achieved higher levels on the HD indicators used here. However, democracy was not a powerful predictor of changes in HD scores during the analysis period. Neither central government health or educational spending significantly altered HD. The conclusions offer a plausible explanation of why democracy in DCs failed to sustain its momentum in improving HD.     

Inequality in Exchange: The Use of a World Trade Flow Table for Analyzing the International Economy

Whether or not the terms of trade between two countries may be unequal is a controversial question in the theory of international economics. In practice, the issue is resolved through statistical observation of the terms of trade. This measurement of the terms of trade follows a long tradition and produces impressive detail. It is, however, restricted in scope, because the first derivative, the change of the terms over time is observed only. Absolute levels depend on which year is chosen as the base year, a choice that is rather arbitrary and carries no theoretical meaning. Equality in the levels of terms of trade remains thus undefined. More precisely, it is always assumed to exist implicitly for whichever base year is being nominated. The paper proposes an answer to this ambiguity based on the relatively new statistical tool of international purchasing power compilation. The terms of trade are crucially dependent on the rate of foreign exchange (for which exports are traded against imports), which is predominantly governed by financial rather than commodity markets. Hence, the paper proposes to separate the two factors of influence and to call terms of trade ‘equal’ if the effective real exchange rate (as derived from the nominal exchange rate by means of purchasing power parities) equals one. On that basis a world trade flow table is constructed, putting the compiled equalities and inequalities in trade into a coherent, global perspective.     

皖港贸易对皖服务业影响的实证研究

建立了VAR模型试图分析这皖港之间的进出口贸易对安徽服务业发展的影响类型及影响程度,联合检验的结果是皖港进出口贸易是皖服务业发展的原因,单独检验的结果认为安徽从香港的出口贸易是安徽服务业的发展的一个内在原因;脉冲分析认为,安徽对香港的出口贸易对安徽服务业的发展有着显著的、积极而持久的影响,而安徽从香港的进口贸易对安徽服务业的影响相对不够显著;方差分解的结果与脉冲图像分解的结论一致。最后提出一些政策建议和措施。     

How does history matter? Hysteresis in Canadian trade

Should trade economists account for hysteresis when estimating gravity models, as [Eichengreen, B., & Irwin, D. A. (1998). The role of history in bilateral trade flows. In J. A. Frankel (Ed.), Regionalization of the world economy. Chicago: University of Chicago/NBER] recommend? Are the effects on trade of key variables, such as a national border, mismeasured when hysteresis is not accounted for? Using a unique panel data set on Canada's international trade over 1988–1996, and building on recent advances in fixed effects approaches to gravity estimation, we find strong evidence that history does matter in determining trade. But exporter and importer fixed effects, as opposed to lagged dependent variables, appear adequate to capture history. Omitting lagged dependent variables matters little to measured parameters like the border effect. After accounting for history we find Canada's overall border effect to be large with little evidence of diminishment in this period.     

Spatial Price Adjustment with and without Trade*

We investigate the possibility that price transmission between spatially distinct markets might vary during periods with and without physical trade flows. We test for differences between trade and non‐trade regimes by using generalized reduced rank regression (GRRR) techniques suggested by Hansen (2003) . We apply these techniques to semi‐weekly price and trade flow data for tomato markets in Zimbabwe and find that intermarket price adjustment occurs in both trade and non‐trade periods. Indeed, the adjustments are generally larger and more rapid in periods without physical trade flows. This finding underscores the importance of information flow for market performance.     

Factors driving embodied carbon in international trade: a multiregional input–output gravity model

ABSTRACT

Concerns about the effects and consequences of climate change have notably increased in recent decades. Despite large advances in the understanding of this phenomenon, further research into the determinants of gas emissions is necessary, to shed light on the responsibilities of producers and consumers, and their potential contribution to mitigation strategies. This paper studies the trajectories and determinants of carbon embodied in world trade during a period of 15 years. Our methodology relies on a multiregional input–output model, environmentally extended. Drawing on data from the World Input–Output Database, we estimate embodied emissions in bilateral flows. Then, we assess the determinants of CO₂ emissions embodied in trade, combining input–output modelling with trade gravity panel data analysis. This paper offers a methodological approach that explains and quantifies the underlying factors of carbon trade, integrating the production and consumption perspectives and considering the geographical, structural and institutional context of countries.     

Trade union participation in CSR deliberation: an evaluation

Whereas there has been considerable interest in the concept of political corporate social responsibility (CSR), trade unions have been largely omitted from such scholarly discussion. This article explores the potential of trade unions as the other in political CSR and the contribution of trade unions to deliberative democracy with the firm. We discuss the importance both of the legitimacy and the efficacy of the other in political CSR. We proceed to assess trade unions as legitimate and effective deliberative partners with the firm towards CSR, evaluating the contribution of trade unions to deliberative democracy and also the potential outcomes for trade unions in adopting this role.     

Capital and trade flows in Europe and the impact of enlargement

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on its possible effects is scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant effect. Based on additional forecasts of the expected flows to 10 transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates actual levels are still far below expected values in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate raising capital and trade flows with the approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland.     

Beyond Intermediates: The Role of Consumption and Commuting in the Construction of Local Input–Output Tables

Estimating intermediate trade using conventional non-survey methods produces biased results. This problem has led to a methodological recommendation that emphasizes the accurate estimation of intermediate trade flows. This paper argues for a qualification of the consensus view: when simulating input–output (IO) tables, analysts need also to consider spillover effects driven by wage and consumption flows. In particular, for metropolitan economies, capturing wage and consumption flows is essential to obtain accurate Type II multipliers. This is demonstrated by constructing an interregional IO table that captures the interdependence between a city and its commuter belt, nested within the wider regional economy.